Do the Rams regret Gurley deal?

[Flint]

With all the talk about Zeke not coming to camp, one of the reasons that keeps coming up for not extending him is Gurley’s deal. Which everyone assumes the Rams regret. Popular wisdom says you should keep backs for as long as possible on their rookie deal then draft a new one, even if they are the best in the league. Clearly Zeke sees what’s going on and recognizes these as his prime years and his best chance to cash in.
What’s interesting is that Gurley’s injury or condition or whatever it is is going to force the rams to be more concerned with his long term health.
It’s kinda surprising, or maybe it’s not, how many media guys advocate just “riding zeke til the wheels fall off”.
The Rams were able to swap out Gurley for a dude sittin on the couch last year, does that prove how little it matters to have a big time rb?
I think having a big time rb helps you in the playoffs and maybe I’m delusional but I think if Gurley was himself the Rams score more than 3 points in the SB.

 

[den-the-coach]

Hindsight is always 20/20, unless you could see into the future everyone was ecstatic when Gurley put the pen to paper and let's hope this year with others like Malcolm Brown & Darrell Henderson to carry the load during the season, the Los Angeles Rams will have a fresh & healthy Todd Gurley come postseason, which is bad news for everyone else and we will have joy in Mudville....No Regrets!

 

[Kevin]

Popular wisdom says you should keep backs for as long as possible on their rookie deal then draft a new one, even if they are the best in the league.

I don't know what "popular wisdom" means and I don't see this approach to RBs happening throughout the league. Sounds like fair weather fandom and surprising that people want to jettison the best RB in the league over speculation on how a knee condition will affect his play over the life of his contract.

 

[kurtfaulk]

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[OldSchool]

Not at all. Next offseason question/topic please.

 

[Loyal]

Not at all. Next offseason question/topic please.

"Why Gurley hates fairweather fans and the midget kids who love them...NEXT, on Geraldo..."

 

[tempests]

I don't see Gurley holding out like Gordon or Zeke Elliott. Yes, Rams would rather be dealing with that right now.

 

[Zaphod]

Hindsight is always 20/20, unless you could see into the future everyone was ecstatic when Gurley put the pen to paper and let's hope this year with others like Malcolm Brown & Darrell Henderson to carry the load during the season, the Los Angeles Rams will have a fresh & healthy Todd Gurley come postseason, which is bad news for everyone else and we will have joy in Mudville....No Regrets!

Not everyone, certainly not me.

 

[dang]

I am an optimist so I see Gurleys situation as an opportunity for the Rams to evolve. Gone are the days of putting the offense on the back of Gurley and getting hm 25+ touches a game. Now the Rams are more balanced and can go RB1A, RB1B, WR1A, WR1B, WR1C, TE1A or TE1B. So opposing defenses...who are you going to focus on shutting down because if u don’t account for all of these the Rams can expose you. I like it and hope it evolves the way it’s setting up to be.

 

[snackdaddy]

There will always be questions about Gurley's health now. Which in turn leads to questions about the decision to extend him when they did. I'm fine with the contract he's getting. They're doing a lot of things that can keep him healthy for the bigger games in January and possible February. Maybe he won't be getting any more player of the year awards, or leading the league in yards, but if he's a major force in the post season the next few years he'll be a Hall of Famer as a Ram. Another face of the franchise. Its worth taking the risk.

 

[fearsomefour]

Hindsight is always 20/20, unless you could see into the future everyone was ecstatic when Gurley put the pen to paper and let's hope this year with others like Malcolm Brown & Darrell Henderson to carry the load during the season, the Los Angeles Rams will have a fresh & healthy Todd Gurley come postseason, which is bad news for everyone else and we will have joy in Mudville....No Regrets!

If others are carrying the load what is the point of having Gurley?
You pay a guy like that because he is a difference maker. You want him getting 25 touches a game.

 

[Merlin]

Hate to say it but there's probably a little regret. But them's the breaks, you gotta pay up for guys who make a difference for you and he did that for us. Rams right now reward difference makers and that's a far cry from what we used to be in all those dark days under Georgia.

But all that aside I do think the RB position as a whole has taken a hit with Gurley having those probs arise right after signing that contract. From a business perspective paying a RB big money is something a shrewd, winning organization can avoid with a little bit of planning, since there are good backs available well into every draft.

So here's hoping TG makes the most of splitting time with big impact type plays. Because if not, that contract and some of the others like the recent Bell contract the Jets just gave out will serve as the example for teams to make those big decisions on whether to pay them.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Here’s Chuck Conner as a Celtic
Oh wrong thread.....

 

[CGI_Ram]

At this moment; probably not, i.e. no regrets.

Gurley just came off a season that he was in the MVP discussion up until December. So, let's start right there; an MVP candidate is worth that contract.

In the absolute worse case scenario, Gurley's leg falls off this year... We certainly wouldn't cut him going into 2019 (just came off MVP season, right)... so that leaves the dead money in 2020.

Which could be spread out, but amounts to $25MM, with a cap hit of $16.2MM if he played the season out... So the way I look at it; IF there were to be any regrets... it would be 2020 and only if we were to cut Gurley because it got really bad.

So, again, I'll say no regrets. Dude is an MVP caliber player. As far as we know, he still is.

 

[Mister Sin]

I don’t think we will know the answer to this until the end of the season. If he comes in this year and dominates, they will be thrilled, but if he’s only getting 13 touches a game and not being productive...very much so. If they suspect he doesn’t have much longer, I hope he balls out for the first 6 weeks and we trade him for some high picks.

 

[Ram65]

https://overthecap.com/position/running-back/

 

[Ram65]

At the time I thought the Rams gave Gurley more than they had to. It was hard to post that without the Ram homer backlash here. Certainly, Gurley deserved to be the highest paid running back along with Bell. The fact is the Rams went way over the current market rate for running backs at the time. IIRC I might posted 12M a year but, that was probably high too when you compare it to the highest paid back at the time. Just over 10M a year would have set a fair market rate. Freeman was only getting little more than 8M at the time. Look at all the top RBs that have been get Johnson, Freeman, Fournette and McKinnon. Gordon who is holding out now has had injury problems. It's a higher risk at RB for injury.

Rams did take a higher cap hit in 2018 and got a little low hit this year 2019. They avoided the messy hold out situation but, are now on the hook with the the meat of his contract after this year. Should Gurley be able to perform near his past levels with a lesser work load over the next two years the Rams should be able to manage. You can see the cap dead money and savings on the far right. The Rams are fully exposed over these next two years near 35M and just over 25M with 8.4M in 2021 dead money. Not sure how the roster bonuses count on dead money.

The bottom line is that the Rams gave Gurley a very player friendly contract when I don't think they had too. The Bell situation could have influenced the Rams to put up the money to show they are a player friendly organization. At the same time they gave Havenstein 8.3M average on his extension which is a great deal for the Rams. The Rams covered themselves by resigning M Brown and drafting D Henderson should Gurley falter.

https://overthecap.com/player/todd-gurley/3858/

Contract Notes
Todd Gurley signed a four year, $57.5 million contract extension with the Rams on July 25, 2018. Details of the contract come from a report from Mike Florio of PFT. Gurley received $45 million in guarantees, $21.95 million of which is guaranteed at signing, including a $21 million signing bonus. On the 3rd day of the 2019 league year his base salary and 2020 3rd day of the league year roster bonus which total $12.55 million will become fully guaranteed. On the 3rd day of the 2020 league year the final $10.5 million in injury guarantees becomes fully guaranteed. This includes Gurley's 2021 3rd day of the league year roster bonus. On the 3rd day of the 2021 and 2022 league years Gurley will earn a non guaranteed $1 million roster bonus. Those same years Gurley will earn a $4 million reporting bonus. There are also $2.5 million in escalators that can increase the total contract value to $60 million if earned. Gurley's cap figure in 2018 increased by $2.8 million and his 2019 cap figure decreased by $430,000.

 

[NoCoNite]

With all the talk about Zeke not coming to camp, one of the reasons that keeps coming up for not extending him is Gurley’s deal. Which everyone assumes the Rams regret. Popular wisdom says you should keep backs for as long as possible on their rookie deal then draft a new one, even if they are the best in the league. Clearly Zeke sees what’s going on and recognizes these as his prime years and his best chance to cash in.
What’s interesting is that Gurley’s injury or condition or whatever it is is going to force the rams to be more concerned with his long term health.
It’s kinda surprising, or maybe it’s not, how many media guys advocate just “riding zeke til the wheels fall off”.
The Rams were able to swap out Gurley for a dude sittin on the couch last year, does that prove how little it matters to have a big time rb?
I think having a big time rb helps you in the playoffs and maybe I’m delusional but I think if Gurley was himself the Rams score more than 3 points in the SB.

Hard to imagine they didn’t see anything in a physical before they offered him the money.

 

[FarNorth]

With all the talk about Zeke not coming to camp, one of the reasons that keeps coming up for not extending him is Gurley’s deal. Which everyone assumes the Rams regret. Popular wisdom says you should keep backs for as long as possible on their rookie deal then draft a new one, even if they are the best in the league. Clearly Zeke sees what’s going on and recognizes these as his prime years and his best chance to cash in.
What’s interesting is that Gurley’s injury or condition or whatever it is is going to force the rams to be more concerned with his long term health.
It’s kinda surprising, or maybe it’s not, how many media guys advocate just “riding zeke til the wheels fall off”.
The Rams were able to swap out Gurley for a dude sittin on the couch last year, does that prove how little it matters to have a big time rb?
I think having a big time rb helps you in the playoffs and maybe I’m delusional but I think if Gurley was himself the Rams score more than 3 points in the SB.

At this moment; probably not, i.e. no regrets.

Gurley just came off a season that he was in the MVP discussion up until December. So, let's start right there; an MVP candidate is worth that contract.

In the absolute worse case scenario, Gurley's leg falls off this year... We certainly wouldn't cut him going into 2019 (just came off MVP season, right)... so that leaves the dead money in 2020.

Which could be spread out, but amounts to $25MM, with a cap hit of $16.2MM if he played the season out... So the way I look at it; IF there were to be any regrets... it would be 2020 and only if we were to cut Gurley because it got really bad.

So, again, I'll say no regrets. Dude is an MVP caliber player. As far as we know, he still is.

Right on all counts. But this is also how the Rams under Kroenke and Demoff do business. They take care of great players. Now they have resigned the coach and GM. Kroenke is also building the best stadium in the NFL. (Notice how Steve Ballmer has gotten the message.) This is how you build the best program in the league, if that is your goal. It clearly is the Rams' goal. It's the gold standard.

Of course there is some risk in signing players to front loaded contracts, including injuries. You have to know great talent when it's there. You have to have money, which some teams don't, and be willing to spend it. Other successful teams may have different approaches. The Rams could have let Gurley become a free agent, like leVeon Bell, and after pissing him off. But there are also significant upsides: being able to retain great talent while building loyalty, stability, a reputation among players in the league, and a fan and business base. It's a serious long term approach.

No one should be surprised that players and free agents want to play for the Rams. That will likely continue under this regime. So will the Rams' success on the field.

 

[den-the-coach]

Not everyone, certainly not me.

Really, why? Last season only 23 years of age a great teammate and the best running back in football, that could not only take it to the house, but was a great blocker in pass protection too....At the time I was stoked thinking the Rams were taking care of their own.