Do NFL Prospects Really Develop That Much?

[Loyal]

Sorry to fart in church tonight, because I know this goes against common wisdom that all draftniks seem to share.

Merlin and jrry32 were talking about a mid draft opportunity to pick a LT developmental guy. Aside from gaining muscle mass and becoming more fit, it seems to me that a guy either has what it takes to be an NFL player, or he doesn't. He comes with his technique and knowledge of the position, and his brain. He is a quick learner, or he is not.

On average, NFL players have about 3 years to make it, or not. The Jerry Glanville cliche' is true, when describing an alternate meaning of the NFL as being, Not For Long. It seems that later round players who do well, are not doing well because of coaching and development, as much as by NFL scouts not realizing a guys abilities. The first round consists of players who have a greater chance of making it, but many of them are a mirage. I believe a guy like Rodger Saffold was good from day one at the 33rd(?) pick in the Draft, and immediately helped us at LT when that position was a pure shyte show. His body began to break down until his shoulders were surgically repaired, and he has been very good ever since at OG. Orlando Pace was great from day one. I think Jackie Slater was as well.

Receivers are even more an example of this. Look at Cooper Kupp. We stole money from the bank vault when we drafted him. His internal drive and attention to detail made him into a great route runner. On the other hand, we hoped Tavon Austin would "develop" into a much better route runner, and he never did. Brian Quick had all of the athletic talent in the world, but couldn't block a guy out and go up for the jump ball, because it wasn't in him to do so. I could go position by position on offense and defense and find examples of a guy having "it" from day one, and the guys that teased the shyte out of us with their physical ability only to disappoint.

There is a window of talent and ability that a coach can mold somewhat, I think. But if a guy comes in with the limited amount of time he has and can't impress anyone with the ability to learn and do, it's over in a heartbeat.

 

[TexasRam]

There is so much to say about this issue really. But to try to steam my top thoughts...


1. If a prospect takes 3 years to develop is it worth drafting him? If he is a pro bowler at year 3, another team gets the benefit of your hard work often times, or you have to pay a lot to keep him.

2. Yes, NFL prospects can develop a lot. Physically for one. But some need to learn techniques critical to the pro system, for example Big Whit or Orlando Pace, both took at least a year or two to master the LT NFL pro game. I watched Pace his Rookie season live vs the Raiders and he had talent but had a ways to go vs NFL caliber talent even if he Pancaked everyone in college. Whitworth wasn't a Pro Bowler out of the box either. Drew Brees, Manning, lots of QB's took awhile. Most WR's usually take at least 1 year, sometimes 2 years to reach their peak.

3. Some prospects will never develop. This can be due to lack of work ethic or mental capacity or upbringing such as bad influence from the outside. This is why so much emphasis is put on a prospects character and reputation from coaches etc. People can turn their life around and recover from bad decisions when young. But it does raise a red flag that must be checked out. If the player gets his mind right and surrounds himself with the right group of people he can excel at the NFL level.

4. Some organizations emphasize character maybe too much. Remember us under Spags I believe. Yea that didn't work out to well. Then again teams like the Bengals and Raiders and others were always taking on risky characters and it often backfired.

5. Some guys have such great natural talent that they come out of the womb ready to score TD's and win Football games. Ask Randy Moss mama, she will tell you. Haha.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

There are some cases where players do develop.

One is Oline because most colleges run some type of spread offense and linemen don't have to hold blocks as long because it's a quick passing game concept.

Another case is the guys that are late to the dance. Maybe they didn't play football until their Senior high school year, or they just had a lot of bad coaching through the years.

But overall, I believe that you can see the potential pretty quickly after these guys hit the field. For instance Allen and Noteboom have my looked like JacK starters on the line. But in comparison, Evans and Edwards have looked better than both in less than half the time.

you could see the potential in Kupp right away, same as Ike. Even in John Johnson and Taylor Rappp. Neither was great right out of the gate, but you could see the qualities that made us think they could be very good.

 

[Merlin]

Yes.

 

[oldnotdead]

All you have to do is look at Samson Ebukam. He's developed into a complete SAM LB. Each year it's clear he's gotten better. IMO it was a huge mistake of Wade's to sign Matthews and I said it when it happened. It retarded Ebukam's development as it took snaps away from him he needed. Had that not been done they would have a very good replacement for Fowler. I have no doubt he would have had a 7-8 sack season.

Look at his development by simply breaking down his play each year. Right now they can't afford to lose him to FA next year as they simply don't have a replacement. It takes 2-3 years to develop a complete OLB capable of setting a hard edge, dropping into coverage and being an effective blitzer. No one else on the team has that combination of skills.

Look at Rapp this year and he won't be making as many "rookie" mistakes. He will play faster because he will trust what he sees and understand things better.

Not everyone improves, as some lack the commitment and the athleticism to do so. But IMO they are apparent by their play in their second year. Some like Everett are in a system that simply doesn't cater to their talent. I think in Everett's case that will begin to change. Others like Hill are just simply poor scheme fits. If Hill were playing in the Chargers predominantly zone scheme he probably would be fine. He simply struggles when asked to play man coverage. That was apparent in 2018.

So IMO the answer is a player will develop if: 1. given good coaching 2. if he is a good fit for the scheme 3. they have the work etic and commitment to develop their talents.

Some players like Jacob Easton a QB in this draft, are like Tim Tebow and Ryan Leaf are simply in it to make easy money and so they bust because they lack the commitment from day one. Easton might not even finish his first contract.

 

[UKram]

Also there’s the issue of a guy being vastly superior athletically at every level (high school college ) up untill the pros.. where they can rely on thier size speed strength until they get to the nfl where everyone is pretty much a freak and they can’t get by on athleticism on its own so they need to develop their technique/skills and have to work a little harder in the film room and practice

I mean there’s a reason there’s the saying “men against boys” and “you can’t teach speed” you take the atheistic freak and hope he has the dedication to push his game to the next level

 

[rdlkgliders]

It happens enough to take the shot, you either say this guy in rd 3 or later has got no chance or he needs to be developed. Is it worth waiting until those rounds to fill a spot of need, probably not. Happens just enough to be a suckers bet

 

[rdlkgliders]

Just a stat for fun, by the bottom of round 2 you have only a 50% chance of finding a starter and for that player to start 40 games is less

 

[CGI_Ram]

Like this topic! Interesting read...

 

[ScotsRam]

Of course players can develop. As well as the good points made above about about scheme, character, external influences etc the other huge influence is coaching.

There is a reason the Rams have gotten better in drafting mid round talent the last few years, and it's not that they are picking better players.

Two examples - what would Cooper Kupp look like in year 3 under a Fisher staff? What would a healthy Sam Bradford look like in year 3 under a McVay?

 

[Memphis Ram]

Some players develop. Some don't.

Some simply struggle with the transaction from college student to grown up NFL player due to varying circumstances.

Some get that first check and the work ethic they had declines (That even happens with contract year veterans, btw).

Some get placed into poor situations and/or position fits by coaching staffs. Anybody think Mahomes would be Mahomes under Jeff Fisher instead of Any Reid?

 

[dieterbrock]

Tyler Higbee had to develop. Athletically there is a fine line between a D1 player and an NFL player. What seems to be the difference maker is what's between the ears. And there's no way to measure that

 

[PARAM]

It's all about the evaluation of the pro scouts. There are guys who are simply good football players and there are guys who have a "high ceiling". Those "high ceiling guys" need to be developed and if they don't, players chosen lower in the draft, who dropped in the selection process replace them and are considered "developed". But have they really developed or were they just good football players to begin with who were under drafted because of those "gambles"? I imagine there are players who get better with NFL coaching and repetitions but they probably would have anyway.....because they're good football players.

 

[ramfan46]

I think lineman take a while to develop because that’s where the hand to hand combat takes place. There’s a lot going on with lower body positioning and hand placement. Skill positions just have to learn scheme and then they can refine movements. TE is another position that needs development because of the caliber of player they will be asked to block. They have to learn to block like a lineman and then run routes like a WR. My uneducated 2 cents.

 

[Angry Ram]

Players don't get that luxury of development anymore. Sink or swim, and most sink.

 

[Loyal]

Of course players can develop. As well as the good points made above about about scheme, character, external influences etc the other huge influence is coaching.

There is a reason the Rams have gotten better in drafting mid round talent the last few years, and it's not that they are picking better players.

Two examples - what would Cooper Kupp look like in year 3 under a Fisher staff? What would a healthy Sam Bradford look like in year 3 under a McVay?

Bad example. Cooper Kupp got of the bus knowing how to run precise routes. Fisher would have loved that ability, it's just whether Sam Bradford could have gotten the ball to him or not...

 

[Loyal]

Some players develop. Some don't.

Some simply struggle with the transaction from college student to grown up NFL player due to varying circumstances.

Some get that first check and the work ethic they had declines (That even happens with contract year veterans, btw).

Some get placed into poor situations and/or position fits by coaching staffs. Anybody think Mahomes would be Mahomes under Jeff Fisher instead of Any Reid?

Didn't Fisher have a pretty good QB in Steve McNair? McNair guided the Titans to a Super Bowl and was a pretty damn fine player, so did Fisher/staff develop him? Or was McNair just that good getting off the bus?

 

[Jacobarch]

You also have to take into account of the talent they play against in college is very polarizing. Most of the players they go head to head with don't ever play in the NFL. That's what makes it so hard to evaluate player talent.

 

[kurtfaulk]

Didn't Fisher have a pretty good QB in Steve McNair? McNair guided the Titans to a Super Bowl and was a pretty damn fine player, so did Fisher/staff develop him? Or was McNair just that good getting off the bus?

I think he didn't become the bonfide starter until his 3rd year in the league.

.

 

[ScotsRam]

Bad example. Cooper Kupp got of the bus knowing how to run precise routes. Fisher would have loved that ability, it's just whether Sam Bradford could have gotten the ball to him or not...

If Kupp was that good out the gate he would have been drafted higher. He was a polished route runner but are you seriously telling me a spring and summer of work with McVay didnt improve him any?