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January 22, 2023
NFC Divisional Playoff Prediction: Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers Renew Postseason Rivalry
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the NFC Divisional Playoff game between the Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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NFC Divisional Playoff: Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers Renew Postseason Rivalry
From 1982 through 1996, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers combined to win eight of 15 Super Bowl championships. Two franchises delivered dynasties on the backs of Hall of Fame quarterbacks like Steve Young, Joe Montana, and Troy Aikman, charging into battle for NFC supremacy three straight years during the '90s.A generation has passed since those glory days; it's been 26 years since either team captured the Vince Lombardi Trophy. But their history provides extra intrigue surrounding a Sunday night matchup with a bid to the NFC Championship Game at stake. A ninth playoff matchup between them (Dallas leads 5-3) ties for the most between teams in the Super Bowl era, games that include the 49ers' 23-17 NFC Wild Card Round victory last year that ended when Dak Prescott accidentally ran the clock out for the Cowboys while driving deep in San Francisco territory.
"[For] me and this team, that's a scar," Prescott said Monday night when reminiscing about that game. "That one hurts. It will hurt for the rest of my career. … So just being able to get [the 49ers] again … this thing's set up just for us — playing teams that have beat us, teams that we're familiar with. So, it's important for us now … to capitalize on this preparation, take it one day at a time, and make sure we're ready to go as we work for this one."
Prescott and the Cowboys will face a quarterback who was still in college during their playoff matchup last year. Iowa State's Brock Purdy has gone from Mr. Irrelevant into one of the NFL's fairy-tale stories of the season, a third-stringer pressed into action only to deliver Pro Bowl-caliber performances for two months straight. That includes a 332-yard, three-touchdown thumping of Seattle last weekend, a game in which San Francisco outscored the Seahawks 25-6 in the second half.
That gave the 49ers their NFL-leading 11th straight victory. A 12th would earn them a second straight NFC Championship Game appearance, as well as current bragging rights in a Cowboys rivalry head coach Kyle Shanahan is happy to be a part of refueling.
"I remember so much from my childhood, from sixth grade to ninth grade," Shanahan said this week. "It was the biggest rivalry in football to me growing up. Then usually that goes away when you don't meet in the playoffs a bunch and we had a big game last year, we have a big game this year, so the more you do that, the bigger it gets again."
Which team will take care of business, inching one step closer to their first Lombardi trophy in nearly three decades?
NFC Divisional Playoff: Dallas (12-5) at San Francisco (13-4)
Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 22 at 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: 49ers -4
Tickets: As low as $543 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. Can Dak Prescott outplay Brock Purdy?
Writing that sentence would have been unthinkable even three months ago. Prescott's return from injury is part of what sparked this Cowboys team to 12 wins and a wild-card berth; Purdy didn't even throw an NFL pass until Oct. 23.
But what a ride it's been for Purdy since early December. Including the playoffs, he's thrown 16 touchdowns and four interceptions during the last seven games, winning all of them while posting the highest passer rating in the NFL. Against the Seahawks last week, he averaged a whopping 11.1 yards per attempt while posting MVP-type numbers during the second half: 9-for-11 for 185 yards, two touchdowns, and no sacks or turnovers.
The Cowboys' defense has been unfazed by Purdy's success, linebacker Micah Parsons saying this week the 49ers have faced "nobody like us this year." Indeed, the Cowboys' D finished the regular season fifth in scoring (20.1 ppg) and created a league-high 33 takeaways. That propensity showed up again on Monday night with a crucial (and rare) interception of Tom Brady in the end zone that snuffed out any momentum for Tampa Bay.
But for Prescott, this game provides an opportunity just like the Dallas defense smells one. He arguably played his best game of the season in that Tampa triumph, throwing for 305 yards and four touchdowns with a 143.3 passer rating. More importantly, for the first time since Nov. 20, he also went turnover-free.
It's Prescott who has the years of experience and accolades Purdy does not. Only four previous NFL rookie quarterbacks have advanced to a conference championship game, and there's a reason for that; the postseason is where their inexperience catches up with them.
Does Purdy feel the pressure? Not yet. Last week, he explained why the playoffs don't feel any different.
"I'm not trying to make it bigger than what it is," Purdy said. "Obviously, there's more on the line and everything, but I think having six (now seven) games under my belt in terms of just playing in an NFL game and trying to win for four quarters has helped me get to this point. And all the guys in the locker room have my back."
2. Which dynamic run game gains the upper hand?
The 49ers hit the jackpot in their trade for Christian McCaffrey, stepping up their run game to a whole other level. McCaffrey was unstoppable against the Seahawks last Saturday, rushing for 119 yards at nearly eight yards per carry and adding a touchdown catch in the 41-23 rout.
How hard will it be to stop McCaffrey? One Dallas radio host got in trouble this week when he actively hoped for the oft-injured player to go down again during Sunday's playoff game. It's not a good look and could provide some motivation for the 49ers in their locker room.
Overall, San Francisco was eighth in the league in rushing offense during the regular season, averaging 138.8 yards per game. And it's not just McCaffrey either who can do damage on the ground. (It's amazing we've gone this long without even mentioning speedy wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who torched the Cowboys last year with 72 yards and a rushing touchdown in the Wild Card Round victory.)
On the other side, Dallas finished the season ninth in rushing offense, right behind San Francisco with their dynamic duo of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard leading the way. But the Elliott-Pollard combination went flat in the playoff matchup last year — 16 carries for 45 yards. That wobbly 2.8 yards per carry didn't get the job done then and won't this year either. The 49ers were second against the run, holding teams to 77.7 yards per game and only 3.4 yards per rushing attempt. Seattle managed 104 yards on the ground but needed 25 carries (4.2 ypc) to get there, and the team's longest run was an 11-yard scramble by quarterback Geno Smith. Besides leading the league with 18.5 sacks, Nick Bosa also is one of the best run-stoppers. So the onus is on Elliott and Pollard (and to a degree the Cowboys' offensive line) to prove they can be more effective running the ball this time around.
3. Can Brett Maher find his footing?
In one of the more bizarre twists in NFL playoff history, Maher became the first player to miss four straight extra points in an otherwise flawless takedown of Tampa Bay on Monday night. Oh, the punchlines that have come from that performance.
After earning the full-time placekicking job this season, Maher had been reliable until that point. He connected on a career-high 90.6 percent of his field goal attempts — including all inside 40 yards — and missed just three extra points during 17 regular-season games.
That's allowed the Cowboys' confidence in Maher to stand firm this week.
"We've got trust in him," Elliott said after practice. "We've got faith in him. That's our brother and we're not going to turn our back on him."
They also don't really have a choice. Finding a replacement kicker at this stage is near impossible; it's too much to put blind faith in someone new when one loss knocks you out for good. So, everyone just needs to cross their fingers and hope one bad week hasn't taken residence inside Maher's head. They didn't need him to kick field goals and make those extra points last week.
In this NFC Divisional Round matchup? It's a different story altogether. And Maher faces grizzled veteran Robbie Gould on the other sideline, aging at 40 but with plenty of game-winning kicks in crunch time on his resume.
Final Analysis
This game should easily be the best matchup of the weekend. The way in which these teams move the football on offense combined with spectacular defensive plays (66 combined takeaways over the course of this season) should create a number of lead changes during a back-and-forth affair.
In a weird twist, I think the pressure is on Prescott, not Purdy, to deliver and put the demons of past years behind him. And Prescott's recent track record makes it difficult to trust him. An incredible game against the Eagles in mid-December was followed by two inconsistent performances against the Titans and Commodes to close the regular season. It's just been hard for him to put together two flawless games in a row.
It'll only take one mistake to keep haunting the Cowboys. Hard to believe just a few months ago, but I think in this case, it's the veteran quarterback who makes them.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Cowboys 28
