Covid 19 thread

[HX76]

How often does England change PM's? She was PM less than a year ago wasn't she?

She resigned then left last summer as she couldn’t get her Brexit bill through the commons. Johnson took over then called an election which he went.

 

[bubbaramfan]

Two weeks of isolation and its like Vegas at my house. We're losing money by the minute, cocktails are acceptable ant any hour and nobody knows what time it is.

Now I know why dogs like to go for walks.

 

[thirteen28]

Well, a country that is spread out in terms of population

Sweden has two large metro areas in Stockholm and Gothenburg, where the population densities are comparable to many other dense metro areas. So that doesn't totally apply.

That being said, I don't totally disagree with your point, because as I have noted, places like Wyoming, Iowa, Idaho, etc., which are being shut down to the same degree as NYC, yet they have much lower population densities, little if any public transportation, and yet we are still doing the one-size-fits-all response through most of the country, with a few outliers like South Dakota.

and has an effective universal health care

Almost every country in Europe has universal health care, including Spain and Italy where the numbers were very high. That tends to undermine any claim that universal health care affects the spread of the virus or the response to it in any way.

 

[thirteen28]

How does this negate the argument that we should look to grow and evolve our economy to not need to shut down in case of such events?

Ok, since you keep repeating this one, put your money where your mouth is - give us some concrete changes we can make that would make the economy pandemic-proof while still keeping everybody safe and sound. Not generalities, not platitudes, but real, substantive, concrete suggestions. Really interested to see how you re-design the economy.

You have no basis of fact to support your claim that there was no need to shut it down to such a degree, when health experts have all said this is necessary.

And the experts have been right all along, haven't they?

- In January, the WHO director said the virus couldn't be transferred from human to human
- Also in January, Dr. Fauci stated that this virus was nothing to worry about.
- Fauci also stated at one point this virus was basically akin to the seasonal flu
- In March, the WHO director reversed himself and predicted an extremely high death rate for the virus
- Fauci has flipped and flopped like a politician since January, sometimes predicting doom and gloom and saying we have to respect the models, only to turn around a few days later and say we can't rely on the models and they are only as good as the assumptions that went into them (although in fairness, he is right on that last point).
- Experts have told us we have to believe the models, even though the models have massively overstated the impact of the virus (it's notable that IMHE are only now adjusting downward their models, which for weeks they have insisted factor in the effects of the shutdown).
- Furthermore, there is no absolute consensus among the experts - many have challenged the narrative, and I have posted more than one article by someone deemed an expert.

That's a lot of experts that have been wrong so far on some very big questions regarding this matter. That's a lot of experts lurching from one extreme to the other and missing the mark both ways

Experts can be wrong too. Experts are also human beings just like any of the rest of us, subject to the same whims of human nature and more than capable of digging their heels in and holding a position even when the evidence is demonstrably wrong. And they also have a lot of trouble simply saying "I don't know" when they don't have an answer, for whatever reason.

EDIT: Since you are so enamored of experts, what's your opinion of Mel Kiper? I mean, after all, he's an expert, so we should take what he says at face value too, right? We shouldn't look at his track record or anything, should we?

You're facing a lot of resistance with that claim because you're consistently trying to present yourself as some sort of counter to the experts with no credibility to back it up.

No the difference between you and I on this is you take whatever they say at face value, because they have the right credentials, whereas I evaluate their track record and adjust the amount of credibility I give their current statements based on the accuracy of their past statements.

I'll listen to what the experts say. But when they are wrong, I'll take note. I'm not going to give them a pass just because they have the right degree from the right university.

There are so many others steps we can take to support those who are feeling the hurt economically without telling them to hit the bricks and get back to work so they can sit there and risk infection, risk going into medical debt and destroying their entire livelihood.

So instead, let's make sure they can't work, make sure the lose their jobs, make sure they go into some other kind of debt they can't pay, and make sure their livelihood is destroyed. That'll save them about as good as Team America saved Paris.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIPljGWGNt4

 

[thirteen28]

Could CDC Data Prove COVID-19 Infections in November 2019?

CDC Data supports theory of much earlier COVID infection than has been reported. Data shows a dramatic spike in “Influenza Like Illness” in certain states as early as November of 2019 A number of states appear to have already experienced an ILI and made it through to a more stable

uncoverdc.com

 

[Akrasian]

Sweden has two large metro areas in Stockholm and Gothenburg, where the population densities are comparable to many other dense metro areas. So that doesn't totally apply.

Stockholm is 24th in Europe in population density. So again, it's not all that crowded comparatively speaking.

Almost every country in Europe has universal health care, including Spain and Italy where the numbers were very high. That tends to undermine any claim that universal health care affects the spread of the virus or the response to it in any way.

Not all Universal Health Care is equal, of course. Sweden is 5th in the world in life span, which certainly seems to indicate that they have above average health care even by European standards. They are not perfect, but they have shown they are well above average.

Despite these advantages, and despite a population that has been relatively careful compared to the US where churches have been packed in places and where spring breakers have massed with no concern about the diseases they will bring home, Sweden IS considering far more draconian measures.

 

[XXXIVwin]

- Also in January, Dr. Fauci stated that this virus was nothing to worry about.
- Fauci also stated at one point this virus was basically akin to the seasonal flu.

Just curious, could u please provide evidence for the above 2 assertions? I’m not saying it is impossible that Fauci ever said these things, but it sure doesn’t sound like him. For the last couple months, Fauci has repeatedly and forcefully stated the exact opposite of what you are accusing him of saying. He has been very vocal that Coronavirus is indeed “something to worry about” and has made a point of noting it is much more deadly and not at all “basically akin to the seasonal flu.”

These are very concerning allegations if true, so please provide the reference for making those statements? Thanks.

 

[bluecoconuts]

Ok, since you keep repeating this one, put your money where your mouth is - give us some concrete changes we can make that would make the economy pandemic-proof while still keeping everybody safe and sound. Not generalities, not platitudes, but real, substantive, concrete suggestions. Really interested to see how you re-design the economy.

That's not my expertise, and I never claimed otherwise, this challenge is meaningless.

That's a lot of experts that have been wrong so far on some very big questions regarding this matter. That's a lot of experts lurching from one extreme to the other and missing the mark both ways

Experts can be wrong too. Experts are also human beings just like any of the rest of us, subject to the same whims of human nature and more than capable of digging their heels in and holding a position even when the evidence is demonstrably wrong. And they also have a lot of trouble simply saying "I don't know" when they don't have an answer, for whatever reason.

Sure, experts can be wrong, especially when trying to keep up with an ever changing landscape in sciences and medicine. That doesn't negate the fact that they have been correct in this instance. Additionally while experts can be wrong, they're getting their talking points by looking at data, by conducting research and experiments, not just pulling things out of their asses. This is incredibly complicated stuff.

Mel Kiper isn't an expert either, he's a football draft nerd who got a TV show based on getting lucky and being in the right place at the right time, nothing more.

No the difference between you and I on this is you take whatever they say at face value, because they have the right credentials, whereas I evaluate their track record and adjust the amount of credibility I give their current statements based on the accuracy of their past statements.

I'll listen to what the experts say. But when they are wrong, I'll take note. I'm not going to give them a pass just because they have the right degree from the right university.

You evaluate based on their track records? How does that even make sense? Do you know how to analyze the data, because that's all they're doing, is summarizing what the research and data available to them at the time says. This is something that will always be changing based on how science works. What credentials do you have to even be a good judgement on what the data says? How do we know you even know how to read it?

So instead, let's make sure they can't work, make sure the lose their jobs, make sure they go into some other kind of debt they can't pay, and make sure their livelihood is destroyed. That'll save them about as good as Team America saved Paris.

Sounds like it's a lose lose situation. Except one can have the impact of the loss be reduced by things we've already begun implementing, and the other one includes things like death, and absolute generational crushing medical debt. So much better than staying home for a few weeks/months.

 

[IBruce80]

My workplace will be closed as of Thursday 9 April - 7 May.
Going in tomorrow to iron out the final steps and plan for the reopen.
In Japan, there is pressure on businesses to close, but no punishments.
It's like a firm request.

Apparently, business have been put into 3 categories:
Those to close.
Those requested to close.
Those to remain open, or essential.

It's a one month isolation for me at Base Camp IBruce80.
Got my health and got my job... touch wood.

However, it is a worry, and has been for the past month or so.
Really feel for those who have suffered.

 

[EastRam]

Well how about this.

Received an email this morning that our car insurance will receive a 15% discount due to COVID-19. For April and May.

 

[thirteen28]

Just curious, could u please provide evidence for the above 2 assertions? I’m not saying it is impossible that Fauci ever said these things, but it sure doesn’t sound like him. For the last couple months, Fauci has repeatedly and forcefully stated the exact opposite of what you are accusing him of saying. He has been very vocal that Coronavirus is indeed “something to worry about” and has made a point of noting it is much more deadly and not at all “basically akin to the seasonal flu.”

These are very concerning allegations if true, so please provide the reference for making those statements? Thanks.

Don't have time to respond to everybody right now, so you win.

1st Assertion (watch all the way to the end):


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=24&v=fqg2kQDlPKw&feature=emb_logo


Second assertion:

DR. FAUCI CONCEDES CORONAVIRUS DEATH RATE LIKE ‘VERY BAD FLU’ – [your]NEWS

The case fatality rate is about 0.1%

yournews.com

Pertinent quote, emphasis mine:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, co-authored an article published Thursday in the New England Journal of Medicine predicting the fatality rate for the coronavirus will turn out to be no worse than that of a “severe seasonal influenza.”

In an exceptionally bad flu season, the case fatality rate is about 0.1%, the authors write.

Regarding the current coronavirus pandemic, they said: “If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.”

That suggests, they conclude “that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

Here's the NEJM paper if you want verification:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Fauci

 

[Memento]

Hey, does anyone recommend Skyrim for a PC game? I tried Oblivion on my Xbox 360, and the combat seemed a little clunky. I'm hoping that a PC will work, but I don't want to spend limited funds on a game I don't like.

 

[Pancake]

Just got done putting on my apocalypse gear and making a food run. Same empty shelves after 6 weeks. Scored some eggs, chicken breasts and grape juice and that is all they have to feed all the people in my area. They better get off there asses and figure out how to get food back on shelves or their is going to be a new daily toll of people who died from starvation.

 

[oldnotdead]

Anyone who thinks they can self medicate on that stuff is playing Russian roulette. That stuff is no joke and can kill you just as easily as the virus.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Go Kyle Turley

Kyle Turley advocates cannabis as a coronavirus “cure”

Kyle Turley advocates cannabis as 'cure' for COVID-19, even after warnings from feds

Former NFL player Kyle Turley is stepping away from his cannabis-related companies so he can privately advocate the products as a coronavirus cure.

www.google.com

Former NFL player Kyle Turley says cannabis 'saved' him, and he thinks it can help others

Former NFL player Kyle Turley, 44, said he's been smoking marijuana for 20 years and credits it for saving his life.

www.google.com

 

[shovelpass]

Hey, does anyone recommend Skyrim for a PC game? I tried Oblivion on my Xbox 360, and the combat seemed a little clunky. I'm hoping that a PC will work, but I don't want to spend limited funds on a game I don't like.

Skyrim is pretty fun. Oblivion overall was a little clunky, but I think they were doing too much for consoles to handle. That and Bethesda games are notoriously glitchy, even skyrim. Skyrim runs much smoother though, not as glitchy. Both games have their qualities as far as story and overall gameplay. Also I think the early elder scrolls games are available for free, Morrowind is cool. The combat system is the old DnD style, Oblivion was the first to change.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Soccer Star Kyle Walker Apologizes After Reportedly Hosting Party With Escorts During Coronavirus Lockdown

Soccer Star Kyle Walker Apologizes After Reportedly Hosting Party With Escorts During Coronavirus Lockdown

Soccer star Kyle Walker has apologized for his alleged actions during lockdown in England. He reportedly had a "three-hour sex session" with escorts.

www.google.com

 

[Dieter the Brock]

More from the world of English Football

José Mourinho and Tottenham players break coronavirus rules to train

José Mourinho and Tottenham players break coronavirus rules to train

José Mourinho and members of his Tottenham squad have been pictured on Hadley Common in north London, having ignored government rules to train there during the coronavirus lockdown

www.google.com

 

[XXXIVwin]

Don't have time to respond to everybody right now, so you win.

1st Assertion (watch all the way to the end):


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=24&v=fqg2kQDlPKw&feature=emb_logo


Second assertion:

DR. FAUCI CONCEDES CORONAVIRUS DEATH RATE LIKE ‘VERY BAD FLU’ – [your]NEWS

The case fatality rate is about 0.1%

yournews.com

Pertinent quote, emphasis mine:



Here's the NEJM paper if you want verification:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Yeah, I call bullcrap. But as usual, we can just agree to disagree.

Earlier in this thread, you stated that epidemiologist Neil Ferguson was "full of contradictions" and said something that "didn't make any sense." After further analysis, I showed you proof that Ferguson's statements were NOT contradictory, and his statement (regarding "lethality") also made perfect sense-- you just didn't seem to understand his point.

Now, for whatever reason, you are trying to cast doubt upon yet another expert's opinion, again with shallow or non-existent proof.

The Fauci video clip you showed was from way back in January-- when the outbreak was confined to China. Fauci stated that "of course the coronavirus should be taken seriously" and that "this is not something that the citizens of the Unites States RIGHT NOW should be worried about." (Emphasis mine).

As for your second accusation, you have completely butchered and misrepresented his statement. You claimed that "Fauci stated that this virus was basically akin to the seasonal flu." As per your citation, the actual quote was:

"the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

The scientists are discussing the "range of lethality" of coronavirus, and they only go as far as to say that it MIGHT be CLOSER to the low end of the lethality spectrum than the higher end. They're saying it MIGHT be closer to 0.1 than it is to 9 or 10 or 36. That leaves a HUGE amount of wiggle-room, obviously. Your summation of that sentence ("basically it's the flu") is completely misleading and inaccurate.

IMHO Fauci has been working tirelessly for weeks (perhaps months) to send out a consistent message-- yes, this is serious, and yes, it is dangerous. To cherry-pick two VERY weak counterpoints--one from a long time ago before it had escaped China, and the other from a co-authored study with ginormous qualifiers-- and accuse him of "flip-flopping like a politician" is just not fair.

In general, 1328, I think your "debate style" is unfair. You consistently mischaracterize and demonize others' opinions and then create ridiculous "Straw Men" which you gleefully knock down. And you seem to think that if you can come up with a metaphor you like, you automatically win, even if the metaphor is wildly inappropriate. (Like positing a false choice between "taking an aspirin or decapitation"-- gimme a break).

However, one metaphor you mentioned I actually really like. You wrote:

"We are on a ship at sea right now, there is a fire near the bow and there is flooding in the engine room back aft with the ship taking on a lot of water and starting to list. And we are ignoring the flooding and focusing only on the fire, instead of dividing our efforts to combat both. Taken individually, either the fire or the flooding is capable of taking down the ship, yet we are focusing on one thing, the fire, at the expense of the other, the flooding, and we are going to lose the ship."

Yeah, I actually agree with this, I can totally see your point. But where we differ is in that I want to listen to expert advice on BOTH problems. For the fire, I want to listen to the firefighters. For the flooding, I want to listen to the experts on flood remediation. But you seem bound and determined to IGNORE and UNDERMINE the experts' opinions for one of the two gigantic problems.

Cheers, man