Covid 19 thread

[Ramhusker]

Not to ruin the fun, but In a “shit just got serious” for us kinda post, it seems our daughter in law Emma just tested positive for Covid.

She just started her new job as a Delta flight attendant last month and got feverish on a return flight from LA to Atlanta. Initially tested negative and diagnosed with strep. Our son stayed home at first, but then returned to work as a district manager for Dunkin Donuts after her initial diagnosis. But Emma just kept feeling worse and worse, so they took her back in for another test yesterday, which has come back positive today.
.
Now we have those 2 and 4 grand children all on quarantine. So far the kids are all fine, and moms staying in bed. Thankfully her symptoms are not bad enough for hospitalization, but that means they just sent her home and they all gotta stay there together I guess.

Granddaughter Scarlett has her 14th birthday in a few days, we’re trying to come up with something clever we can do for her from the other side of the window.

It’s a bit worrisome to me that Alan was exposed to Emma and unwittingly went to work at dozens of different Donut stores all week. He says he’s feeling fine but...dayum, the implications of community spread are sobering to say the least.

Anyway.....not sure how to really feel right now. Positive or worried?

It seems like last week the first test 3 days for results. This week it took alittle over 24 hrs. So things ARE getting better.

Sorry to hear it man. Hope it runs its course with no complications. And that's what probably will happen. Scary that she tested negative initially. Now I'm not going to eat a donut for awhile. Hang in there brother.

 

[…..]

Thank you @-X-

All young and strong and fit, plus they eat way too healthy for anything bad to happen.

 

[…..]

Sorry to hear it man. Hope it runs its course with no complications. And that's what probably will happen. Scary that she tested negative initially. Now I'm not going to eat a donut for awhile. Hang in there brother.

Thanks Bo! Eat your donuts man, he doesn’t go farther south than Valdosta.

Haaaa jk - he’s got Macon though.

The negative test is mind blown, we all relaxed after that. They think the strep was legit and threw off the test. That seems off but I think they are spit ballin.
Everything seems so serious by watching the news but they literally just shrugged it off and said “go home and don’t go anywhere else for 14 days”

 

[…..]

Some real life...

 

[jrry32]

Not to ruin the fun, but In a “shit just got serious” for us kinda post, it seems our daughter in law Emma just tested positive for Covid.

She just started her new job as a Delta flight attendant last month and got feverish on a return flight from LA to Atlanta. Initially tested negative and diagnosed with strep. Our son stayed home at first, but then returned to work as a district manager for Dunkin Donuts after her initial diagnosis. But Emma just kept feeling worse and worse, so they took her back in for another test yesterday, which has come back positive today.
.
Now we have those 2 and 4 grand children all on quarantine. So far the kids are all fine, and moms staying in bed. Thankfully her symptoms are not bad enough for hospitalization, but that means they just sent her home and they all gotta stay there together I guess.

Granddaughter Scarlett has her 14th birthday in a few days, we’re trying to come up with something clever we can do for her from the other side of the window.

It’s a bit worrisome to me that Alan was exposed to Emma and unwittingly went to work at dozens of different Donut stores all week. He says he’s feeling fine but...dayum, the implications of community spread are sobering to say the least.

Anyway.....not sure how to really feel right now. Positive or worried?

It seems like last week the first test 3 days for results. This week it took alittle over 24 hrs. So things ARE getting better.

I'm very sorry to hear that, Dog. Hopefully, she's one of the 80% or so cases who don't develop serious symptoms. Stay safe, my friend!

 

[RamFan503]

I just make drinking orange, grapefruit and carrot juice a regular thing. I'm not disciplined enough for supplements of any kind.

Funny because I have a really killer juicer and I end up taking supplements. Guess I gotta get back to juicing.

 

[Mojo Ram]

The negative test is mind blown, we all relaxed after that. They think the strep was legit and threw off the test. That seems off but I think they are spit ballin.

I'm no doctor but many common illnesses can be brought on with either bacteria or a virus. I do believe that strep is strictly a bacterial infection rather than viral so maybe there's some truth to that initial test not reading it correctly. I have no idea how these COVID tests function.

Hang in there. Our thoughts are with you and your family.

 

[ozarkram]

What does that mean?

Curious. What are the other more serious levels, and what do they mean?
If you can share that.

If I understand the the threat levels correctly the next and last level is Delta. Which is Base lock down. These levels are suggestions. The DOD will do what it wants. Have gone from Bravo to Charlie in less than a week. The military is taking it seriously.

 

[ozarkram]

The military’s health warning level—Health Protection Condition Charlie—means the virus has sustained community transition with a substantial morbidity threat. The designation means personnel should expect the cancellation of in-person gatherings, the limited access of supplies and services, and even more remote work. The move comes after individual bases and the entire U.S. Army raised their alert to this level. The highest condition level—Delta—would signify a high threat of mortality and widespread community transmission.

 

[12intheBox]

Any small business owners out there who want to talk over this new relief package being passed now and how it can help us - DM me.

It actually looks like it may have some real relief in it.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Timeline Shows 3 Paths To COVID-19 Treatment And Prevention (INFOGRAPHIC)

A new visualization of progress in the fight against COVID-19 should give us hope. Although we are all now living in uncertain times, we are also witnessing one of the greatest moments in the history of science.

www.google.com

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Any small business owners out there who want to talk over this new relief package being passed now and how it can help us - DM me.

It actually looks like it may have some real relief in it.

At first glance I saw some things that were unsettling regarding my employees - having to pay them 10 weeks of sick-leave pay then the government paying me back. How am I supposed to do this with a company that has been shutdown? And when will I “eventually” get reimbursed. Anyway need to read a lot more here first - I may not be understanding it
Foooooooked

 

[bluecoconuts]

Curious. What are the other more serious levels, and what do they mean?
If you can share that.

The next level is mass mandatory quarantines, mass decontamination and evacuations if needed. Basically level C means it’s more or less contained outside of post and D means it’s widespread and mission readiness is at risk.

This is for the military though, not civilians, so they won’t be knocking on your door or anything. Basically the way the military works is they don’t want another country to take advantage and attack while our fighting force is sick, so they take steps to ensure our men are okay and able to fight if needed.

 

[thirteen28]

So the UK guy from Imperial College whose model predicted 500,000 Wuhan coronavirus deaths in the UK and 2.2 million in the US, now walks it back and says he overestimated, and states that the UK death toll will about about 20,000 and will be confined mostly to elderly people who were sick anyway and were already likely to die this year. So basically he overestimated UK deaths by a factor of 25. This study was cited as the basis for much of the economic disruption we've seen in the past few weeks, which lead to a record number of jobless claims in the U.S. - 3.3 million - this week. Same guy was saying, as recently as last week, that 18 months of quarantine would be required.

The media on both sides of the Atlantic ran with this doomsday model and provided justification for governors and mayors across the nation to tank their local economies and, when taken in aggregate, tank national economies.

(Note, there is a whole twitter thread there, more than just the tweet that shows up in this post)


View: https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1243133211011690499

 

[OldSchool]

Great work and effort. Proud of the team.

Rams & KABC's Te'LA'thon fundraiser generates over $2.2 million for United Way of Greater Los Angeles Pandemic Relief Fund & LA Regional Food Bank

www.therams.com

 

[Mackeyser]

So the UK guy from Imperial College whose model predicted 500,000 Wuhan coronavirus deaths in the UK and 2.2 million in the US, now walks it back and says he overestimated, and states that the UK death toll will about about 20,000 and will be confined mostly to elderly people who were sick anyway and were already likely to die this year. So basically he overestimated UK deaths by a factor of 25. This study was cited as the basis for much of the economic disruption we've seen in the past few weeks, which lead to a record number of jobless claims in the U.S. - 3.3 million - this week. Same guy was saying, as recently as last week, that 18 months of quarantine would be required.

The media on both sides of the Atlantic ran with this doomsday model and provided justification for governors and mayors across the nation to tank their local economies and, when taken in aggregate, tank national economies.

(Note, there is a whole twitter thread there, more than just the tweet that shows up in this post)


View: https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1243133211011690499

based on raw numbers and not taking into account unknowns (this is a novel virus, afterall) that made sense.

The alternative was to underplay it like that VA preacher who thought it was all hype. Yeah...he died of COVID today.

I'll reiterate, the reason why South Korea did so well was the MASSIVE testing and retesting regimen which flattened their curve massively.

China dicked around and once they saw that their curve was about to hit escape velocity, they instituted a brutal quarantine and literally pulled people from their homes if they were symptomatic.

Italy didn't and while they are finally seeing a flattening of new cases, they will still see deaths from the cases within the last 3 weeks. And we've not seen how southern Italy will respond.

The US only really went into lockdown around the 15th give or take and it's still not really a lockdown. In FL, I still see people taking walks together or exercising, I still see carloads of people going places as I go to pick up my son from work... plenty of places that are non-essential are still open. He works in a call center.

When you look at what is happening in NYC and Atlanta (both homes to very busy airports and with decent population density as well as Northern NJ (again, very busy airport, Newark, and decent population density), they are just the tip of how it's gonna play out.

Will we see 2.2M dead? No. That was always a possibility based on the Rø and initial mortality rates, but we at still at the early phases in the US of seeing the death toll.

Remember at the beginning of this thread how folks really diminished the threat? Now, we're gonna diminish the number of dead like we can't learn?

Nah, fam. Not me. This is gonna be real for months.

Oh, and when there's another flare up in China, you can say you heard it here, first.

 

[thirteen28]

based on raw numbers and not taking into account unknowns (this is a novel virus, afterall) that made sense.

The alternative was to underplay it like that VA preacher who thought it was all hype. Yeah...he died of COVID today.

I'll reiterate, the reason why South Korea did so well was the MASSIVE testing and retesting regimen which flattened their curve massively.

China dicked around and once they saw that their curve was about to hit escape velocity, they instituted a brutal quarantine and literally pulled people from their homes if they were symptomatic.

Italy didn't and while they are finally seeing a flattening of new cases, they will still see deaths from the cases within the last 3 weeks. And we've not seen how southern Italy will respond.

The US only really went into lockdown around the 15th give or take and it's still not really a lockdown. In FL, I still see people taking walks together or exercising, I still see carloads of people going places as I go to pick up my son from work... plenty of places that are non-essential are still open. He works in a call center.

When you look at what is happening in NYC and Atlanta (both homes to very busy airports and with decent population density as well as Northern NJ (again, very busy airport, Newark, and decent population density), they are just the tip of how it's gonna play out.

Will we see 2.2M dead? No. That was always a possibility based on the Rø and initial mortality rates, but we at still at the early phases in the US of seeing the death toll.

Remember at the beginning of this thread how folks really diminished the threat? Now, we're gonna diminish the number of dead like we can't learn?

Nah, fam. Not me. This is gonna be real for months.

Oh, and when there's another flare up in China, you can say you heard it here, first.

Your post is full of suppositions and assertions that are unsupported by data. The 2.2. million figure was never supported by any actual data, it was just supported by a fear-mongering computer model for which the author now won't even release his code. And again, his initial estimate overstated his current estimate by a factor of 25. If you followed the reasoning, the author stated that the virus has probably been transmitted much more widely than previously believed, which means many more than just those who tested for it have come into contact with it, and thus the virus is not nearly as deadly as originally feared. And here we are, a few months into this pandemic, and in a country of 330 million people, we finally topped 1000 deaths. Given that the lockdowns didn't start until about mid-March, two and a half months into the year if the virus has been spreading for all of that time, then it really isn't anywhere near as deadly as the doomsayers would have us believe. For people without pre-existing medical conditions, it suggests a probability of death in line with probability of death for all causes, i.e. no effective change.

Yet based on that model, we shut down our economy to the tune of 3.3 MILLION new jobless claims this week. In a labor force of approximately 164 million, that represents a near-instantaneous 2% jump in the unemployment rate, which was hovering around 3% prior to that, which translates now into about a 5% unemployment rate. A few pages back, I posted a link to an article with regard to the economic costs of a continued shutdown. Pertinent quote:

The health of the economy is not as important as the health of the citizenry. However, the two are interconnected. You can’t crush the economy without exacting a human toll. In a 2018 academic article, Taiwanese researchers Yu-Hui Lin and Wen-Yi Chen showed a link between unemployment and suicide, one that may linger for two to three years after the job market has improved. These findings suggest that even a short, sharp recession has lasting consequences. In rough terms, they postulate that each 1% rise in unemployment leads to one additional suicide per 100,000 people, and a rise in divorces of up to 1%. If unemployment jumps by 5% in the current shutdown of the U.S. economy, that would translate into some 16,500 additional suicides and up to 3 million divorces. The human toll is very real.

We've just seen a 2% jump in unemployment. At one additional suicide per 100,000 population that adds up to 6600 additional suicides. So tell me, why are 1000 Wuhan virus deaths more tragic than 6600 suicides? Why is the virus death total unacceptable, but the death total from additional unemployment-fueled suicides is just hunky fucking dory no problem whatsoever? You complain about people diminishing the dead at the beginning of this thread, yet I see you doing the same thing now when it comes to the human toll of an economic meltdown - one that is almost entirely fueled by our current response to this crisis.

A lot of those jobs won't come back either. Many businesses are going to fold (some already have) and many people will lose their livelihoods. And if we take your approach you appear to favor, staying locked down for a long time, it will be much, much worse. That's not just people worrying about the Dow or their 401ks, that's people worrying about making a living, worrying about how to save for their kids education, worrying about putting food on the table. There is a serious human cost in responding to this virus the way we are doing it, and from the data we know now, it's exceeding the cost of the Wuhan virus by leaps and bounds.

An effective response to a crisis like this requires balancing three things - security (which includes public health), civil liberties, and economics. Right now the response throughout most of the country is focusing almost entirely on the first with a near total disregard for the other two. And from the tone of your post above, as well as others you have written in this thread, you are just fine with that, oblivious to the costs from ignoring the other two. You previously stated that you are in an at-risk category, and if so, you should take extra care to quarantine yourself. But when you complain about other people taking walks or exercising, you are suggesting that their rights should be limited, which suggests at best a tepid commitment to the rights and liberties of others. Complaining about businesses you consider to be non-essential to be open, as well as your apparent fervor for a long-term lockdown suggests at best a tepid commitment to the economic aspect of the crisis. And you don't seem to have a problem imposing your preferred solution on an entire population, irrespective of the fact that your preferred solution doesn't enhance their security, curtails their civil liberties, and diminishes their economic prospects.

If you are that scared, quarantine yourself. Those who are in the at-risk categories should be doing so anyway. But any sympathy I have for your condition goes out the window the instant you let your fear override your judgment to the point that you advocate taking away the rights of others for your preferred solution, and that's where you are at now.

The words below aren't mine, but the thoughts behind them comport with what I am thinking. YMMV.

 

[…..]

Turns out they don’t just send you home and wish you luck.

They send you home and call every day and ask 5 or 6 questions about your symptoms. Collecting information. If things get bad, they bring you back in.

 

[Mojo Ram]

Thank you to everyone who have kept this informative thread going without going hard on politics. I realize that politics are a part of the COVID discussion...but thank you again for playing it straight.

I would also like to point out and remind everyone that there are no rules or moderation in a private discussion room(not the public chat room)...so that is an option for those who would like to enter into such a discussion behind closed doors. Just remember that if someone in said room pisses you off, you're on your own, Lol.

 

[IowaRam]