Chris Long's take on deflate-gate

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LumberTubs

As idle as a painted ship upon a painted ocean
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Phil
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #24
"When I’m lucky enough to get the ball, I’m one of those kid-on-Christmas-morning defensive players who’s just trying not to pull a Leon Lett."

lol

This made me laugh too. As I read that I pictured the look on his face when he recovered that Quinn forced fumble against the Colts (I think it was them or maybe the Texans) last season and ran it in for 6
 

LesBaker

Mr. Savant
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Les
I think as a reward for doing such a great job on that piece the Rams should let him play RB for a quarter, or late in a game where they are holding a big lead and running a lot to kill clock so he can live his dream and tote the rock.
 

rams2050

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Think of this: When leading at halftime, the Patriots have won 74 CONSECUTIVE GAMES AT HOME!

This is MIND-BOGGLING! Because it shows that for more than 9 full seasons, the Cheats are perfect at HOME!

Draft picks unfamiliar with the system? Who cares? New coordinators? Not a problem. Why doesn't anyone else see this and wonder?


When added to the fumbling statitistics, all I can imagine is that they are cheating big time. I may not know how, but I know in my gut and in my brain that it is going on.
 

danboy125

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Revenge of the Nerds: SCIENCE, DEFLATEGATE AND THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE

The dark cloud of DeflateGate has enveloped the national stage, and seems poised to remain through Superbowl Sunday and beyond. Did the New England Patriots break the rules by letting air out of their footballs or didn't they? It has been a fascinating, tortured soap opera, vexing most of us and bring out the worst in some (hi there ESPN). What keeps it going and going? Is it that our minds just can't reconcile the confident denials from quarterback Tom Brady, Coach Bill Belichick and team owner Robert Kraft with the physical reality of footballs that were clearly deflated well below the allowed limit? Even Brady himself insists he doesn't have an explanation for what happened… and DeflateGate just rages on.

Most in the media, fandom and the public at large have coped with this maddening situation by jumping to the conclusion that the Patriots must have cheated, and then gone on to argue whether it’s no big deal or whether they deserve swift and severe punishment. The media has been riveted to this public debate, this spectacular controversy, this national shouting match, this excruciating uncertainty.

Meanwhile, here and there a few lonely voices have struggled to be heard above the din. These voices understand that this mystery is not a sinister conspiracy, but rather a comedic farce awash with fools, but lacking any real villains (except maybe former Raven linebacker, the dreaded Ray Lewis). What these quiet voices know is something called "science". With this strange knowledge, they are able to grasp how and why the events reported to have taken place in a cold, wet, windy Gillette Stadium on Sunday January 25, 2015 might have inevitably lead to significant deflation of footballs. It is not really a mystery at all. In fact, the mathematical relationship between air pressure and temperature was established in its current form way back in 1834, and has been taught in high school physics class for over a hundred years.


INTRODUCTION

To determine if the New England Patriots have violated NFL rules about ball inflation, the main question is, "Was the observed drop in ball pressure due to natural causes or due to tampering?" As Coach Belichick explained last Saturday, the best way to truly answer this question is to do an experiment. Before such an experiment, a scientist will need to form a testable hypothesis, a prediction, based on the facts of the situation and what is known about natural laws. In this case, the relevant physical law is the Ideal Gas Law (Pressure x Volume = n x R x Temperature) combined with the fact that friction generates heat.

Check out this informative video which also explains the science behind the pressure-drop:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf8oQ4rhR-A



THE FOUR PHYSICAL PHASES OF DEFLATEGATE

Knowing the conditions at the AFC Championship game and how the Patriot’s footballs were treated, it’s not hard to anticipate the result based on the four different physical phases the balls went through. The logical prediction is that ball pressure would drop significantly below the NFL minimum 12.5 psi.

1) Rubbing Phase - Before the AFC Championship game, the balls were kept at 70-75 degrees in the locker room. They were then rubbed vigorously for a substantial preparation period. The rubbing created heat from friction. The heat increased the air Temperature in the footballs above the indoor temperature, so their Pressure increased.

2) Cooling Phase A - The warmed footballs were given to referee Walt Anderson, who was asked to set the pressure to 12.5 psi. The balls stayed in the official's locker room for over 2 hours and gradually cooled back to the indoor temperature. This initial drop in Temperature resulted in a corresponding drop in Pressure (approx 1 psi per Belichick).

3) Cooling Phase B - 10 minutes before kickoff, the balls were taken to the sideline. The temperature was approximately 50 degrees, but was lower on surfaces exposed to rain, wind-chill and being thrown spinning through the air at 50-60 miles per hour. Over the course of the first half, the balls cooled to below 50 degrees. This second drop in ball Temperature resulted in a further drop in ball Pressure.

4) Stretching Phase – When the football's leather skin got soaking wet, it stretched, increasing the Volume inside, resulting in a third drop in ball Pressure.


THE UNFINISHED PHASE, THE NEXT STEP

Taken together, these physical and climate factors dropped football pressure below the NFL minimum 12.5 psi with no need for tampering. This is not a possibility, it is a certainty. Left unanswered though is, "How much would it have dropped?" When some scientists, not lawyers, eventually solve this mystery, it will likely be in the Patriots favor and the NFL will come out looking incompetent... again. Just how incompetent may be surprising.


THE BUREAUCRATIC PHASE, AN NFL CATCH-22

The real scandal is that for years cold weather pressure-drop has been ignored in NFL ball management rules. It is a physical reality that footballs set to the allowable pressure range indoors often drop out of range once on the field (unless artificially kept warm), putting teams at risk of accusations of cheating. Undoubtedly, in nearly all of the many past cold weather games across the league, both teams have been guilty either of tampering with their balls by warming or reinflating them, or (more likely) of playing with underinflated balls.


THE PSYCHOLOGICAL PHASE, THE BLIND LEADING THE BLIND

During this fascinating, frustrating, all-consuming week of DeflateGate, some might wonder how could so many intelligent, highly paid NFL executives and officials have established such a flawed rule, a rule that appears ignorant of the fact that cold weather drops ball Pressure. Sadly, most journalists and commentators also lack this knowledge and have plunged ahead recklessly with false accusations and little curiosity about the basic facts of the matter. Emboldened by ignorance and sinister suspicion, they have proclaimed “the Patriots are cheaters!” They think that for the ball pressure to drop significantly, someone must have surreptitiously let the air out. They just know it. Shouldn't they know better? Why have so many been so blind to their ignorance?

The answer to this question comes from the other important scientific field at play in DeflateGate: Cognitive and Social Psychology. Discussion of this is complex and goes way beyond the physics of football pressure, but is extremely relevant to the media and to society at large. If you are interested, please look up "Cognitive Bias" and "The Dunning-Kruger effect: Why The Incompetent Don’t Know They’re Incompetent" (see references).

The science of cognitive bias is necessary to help us to understand how overconfident NFL officials established unworkable inflation rules. It also helps us to better understand why so many media pundits have failed to appreciate the scientifically obvious reasons for football deflation in a cold wet game, yet have gone on to lob accusations of cheating with great confidence and righteous indignation (and a few tears courtesy of Mr. Mark Brunel).


THE FINAL PHASE, A DEFINITIVE SOLUTION

The fix for NFL ball pressure is simple:

1) Keep the current process of the teams giving their game balls to the officials 2-3 hours before kick-off. The officials have time to inspect the balls and correct any problems.

2) At least 90 minutes before kick-off, the officials place the balls in breathable tamper proof bags or other containers, seal the containers with tamper-proof fasteners, and take them down to the field. This will allow the air inside the footballs to equilibrate to the climactic conditions (i.e. temperature) on the field.

3) The bags should be placed in plain sight of both teams, fans and officials in the center of the field. In any case, they must not be left near sideline heaters or cooling fans.

4) The outside of the containers should be reflective White in color. (If the containers are black or other dark color and left in the sun, they will heat up the balls and prevent equilibration).

5) Whether to keep the balls dry from any rain will have to be determined.

6) The officials will break open the tamper-proof seals 10-20 minutes before kickoff, remove the balls, and adjust air pressure to NFL specifications.

7) Representatives from each team are able to observe and confirm the pressure test readings, and object at that point (avoiding unprovable accusations later on).

8) Officials should be allowed to check and readjust ball pressures at half-time or other times during the game.

Problem solved, free of charge. League officials will probably have to set up a task force and then hire expensive consultants to get to the same answer, if they don't screw it up instead.


SUMMARY

DeflateGate is the unfortunate outcome of irrational rules for pregame football inflation that have been adopted by NFL executives, lawyers and business owners who clearly lacked common sense and a knowledge of basic high-school physics. Robert Kraft’s indignation is certainly justified, but should be tempered by the realization that he joined so many others in implementing these rules. While apparently competent to manage business and legal matters, one wonders about the competency of NFL officials to handle all the other important matters facing the unprecedented sport of American football (like the epidemic of concussions and head injuries, for which there is also a simple scientific solution – see http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ainissa-g-ramirez-phd/footballs-paradigm-shift-_1_b_4428032.html ).

DeflateGate is not about who said what to who, about whether a coach or player is popular or likeable, about whether anyone should have felt a drop in football pressure by squeezing the ball, about how long it takes a ball-boy to relieve himself before heading to the sideline, or about whether deflation makes it easier or harder to hold, throw or catch a football. At least, this is not what it should be about. No, this controversy is simply about the pressure-drop in footballs during a cold, wet game. To determine whether or not pressure would have naturally dropped without tampering, the NFL needs a few scientists, not a team of lawyers on a witch hunt in need of a conspiracy. Most importantly, there is a simple, science-based process that NFL referees can easily follow to prevent similar problems in the future. It involves leaving the balls in sealed white bags at midfield for 90 minutes then adjusting ball pressure 15 minutes before kick-off.

Sometimes, in order to win the day, the jocks just need to stop, shut up and listen to the quiet voices of the geeks. While we await the definitive experiment in this case (here's looking at you ESPN Sport Science, you can do it... just be sure to rub the balls properly first), the laws of nature are almost certainly on the side of Tom Brady, whether he knows it or not.

Please consider these comments and feel free to share, post, publish, print, reproduce and pass on any portion of them.


REFERENCES

http://www.nfl.com/rulebook/ball

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ideal_gas_law

http://www.spring.org.uk/2012/06/th...-incompetent-dont-know-theyre-incompetent.php

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect

http://www.psmag.com/health-and-behavior/confident-idiots-92793
 

danboy125

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WHAT ABOUT THE COLTS’ BALLS?

1) Maybe the Colts’ balls were not rubbed pre-game, started out at indoor temp (70-75 degrees), and were set to upper end of range (13.5psi). By halftime, they fell less than 1 psi and remained within range. This is the most likely explanation.

2) It has been rumored that the Colts’ balls did not lose pressure during the game, but the NFL has not confirmed this. Maybe they were not checked, and were also out of range. We don't know for sure.

3) It has been rumored that the Colts anticipated lodging a complaint before the game even started, so maybe they filled their balls outdoors with cold air before giving them to the referees, knowing they could be checked at halftime. This would imply someone on their team knew about the effect of temperature on ball pressure.

4) Maybe the Colts tampered with their balls on the sidelines before halftime, after finding them to be soft, knowing they could be checked at halftime.

5) Maybe the Patriot’s balls were out of range to begin with and NOT properly set by officials pregame. This could have been because of miscommunication, embarrassment or malfeasance by one or more of Walt Anderson’s officiating crew, which they might not realize or are reluctant to admit. Such a mistake could cost them their jobs.
 

Ken

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Ken Morris
Sorry Pats fan that your team is made up of pathological cheaters and liars. If the Pats 'rub' their balls so hard that it causes the inside air temp to rise to 125 degrees, then they are rubbing them for the purpose of having them under inflated by game time. Its much more likely the ball boy did it in the head. He's had years of practice, so 90 seconds, no problem. But I don't care if you want to keep living in fantasyland. Go on believing in the integrity, and scientific prowess, of your beloved coach. I don't give a fuck.
 

danboy125

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On a more serious note, I think it is possible that the equipment staff has been "preparing" the balls pregame with knowledge that this will artificially increase their temperature. Some inflation pumps apparently put out air as high as 130 degrees. Heat from any source doesn't matter. Could be deliberate or innocent, either way it's the fault of the NFL and the Refs, not the Patriots. The refs should have taken the balls down to the field, let them sit for an hour or more, then set the pressure (see THE FINAL PHASE, A DEFINITIVE SOLUTION above). Problem solved.

There is NO EVIDENCE that the Patriots violated NFL rules, which only specify pressure, not temperature.

People who were so sure the Patriots broke the rules have been finding out more about the situation, the different factors and other likely explanations, and now they are understandably pulling back from the initial rush to judgment. They say it's because the Patriots have a history of rule breaking, often spouting other rumors or half truths, while ignoring misdeeds from other franchises.

Many in New England think that most of the country has a higher standard for the Patriots compared to other teams because they are the king of the hill franchise. This may be unfair but seems to be true. Die hards there are saying, "All the whiners just look pathetic and weak. They hate us 'cus they ain't us." and "All this is the Price of crushing opponents for over a decade." This rings true for me.

I bet many would like to have some of that sustained dominant success, and if it happens here fans will have to step up and defend the Rams from the predictable envy and pettiness of others. The Patriots are not the "evil empire". They are the model franchise, and have built a tradition of winning through hard work, smart coaching and dedicated preparation. More than anything, they are DETERMINED to be victorious in every game, every snap of the ball, on offence, defense and special teams.

It could it be that every time a fan here hates on the Patriots, it sends the message to the Rams players and coaches, "We don't like the way New England does it. We don't want you to be like them." Well guess what? Their wish keeps coming true.
 

Boffo97

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There is NO EVIDENCE that the Patriots violated NFL rules, which only specify pressure, not temperature.
Ignored most of your denial, but this is relevant. If the Patriots did indeed pump hotter air into the balls knowing that the pressure would SIGNIFICANTLY lessen as the temperature cooled, then they were deliberately lowering the pressure. Therefore, they deliberately cheated.

Die hards there are saying, "All the whiners just look pathetic and weak. They hate us 'cus they ain't us."
And the "die hards" are in deep, deep denial. I don't envy the Patriots at all. If the Rams "won" in that same way, I'd disown them until the management who did that crap was completely gone.

The only envy involved here might be you guys envying fans with integrity, because if you can support those cheaters, you have none.
 

Memento

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Fuck off, danboy. It's bad enough that we had the nutjob Chargers fan in here this year. It's even worse when Seahags and Whiners fans come here to show off their pathetic attempts at snark. But seeing a Cheatriots fan like you come on a Rams site and defend the fucking bullshit that your worthless excuse of a team has done for more than a fucking decade...I don't even know you, and I already hate your guts.

I truly hope that you get permabanned, and I wish you nothing but the worst in life.

Sincerely,

Mem, a fan of the true 2000-2001 Super Bowl champions.
 

ozarkram

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I am probably some what in the minority here in that I feel just a little bit sorry for Pats fans. Because this will never ever go away. Tom and Bellyfat will be making their HOF acceptance speech and someone will stand up and scream cheater! Same with Goodell. It will never go away. The American public is very forgiving. But at the top of the list of unpardonable sins is cheating. Just ask Shoeless Joe or Lance Armstrong or Pete Rose. Enjoy the fun while you can Patsy Fans history will not be kind to you.
 

rams2050

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I feel nothing for the Cheats' fans because they are actually the enablers here. They continued to buy in to whatever the Cheatriots were selling, lock, stock and barrel. They didn't seem at all dismayed by previous allegations -- and proof -- of cheating, so Belicheat and Tommy Boy felt that they could continue onward in the same vein. Whatever it takes to win.

I have no desire to be a part of such flim-flammery and I just pray to God that the Rams never partake in such a scam on the American public AND their fans. The Cheats' fans will go to their graves believing that they were part of something special, some faux dynasty, so I guess the one thing I feel for them is pity because they believe in a false god of sports.

I'd rather have our one well-fought and honorably won Super Bowl than all of the Cheats' tainted SB wins. . . Because EVERYTHING that team has done is now in question. It is NOT only the SB wins, in my mind, it is EVERY WIN that they needed in order to REACH THE SUPER BOWL. Just how many of them are tainted? I think, probably, ALL of them.
 

danboy125

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freak off, danboy. It's bad enough that we had the nutjob Chargers fan in here this year. It's even worse when Seahags and Whiners fans come here to show off their pathetic attempts at snark. But seeing a Cheatriots fan like you come on a Rams site and defend the freaking bullcrap that your worthless excuse of a team has done for more than a freaking decade...I don't even know you, and I already hate your guts.

I truly hope that you get permabanned, and I wish you nothing but the worst in life.

Sincerely,

Mem, a fan of the true 2000-2001 Super Bowl champions.


Looks like I hit a nerve. Wow, Winged Knight. Did you really just say that? Is this how you form judgements about people you don't really know?

Again, I think that an attitude focused on the facts, combined with determination and hard work is a winning formula. Guess we just have different views of facts versus unknowns versus emotion-based belief. I think they are different things, and that an effort should be made to tease them apart. Failure to do that has lead to things like the witch trials, the inquisition and now deflategate.

I believe in America and our founding principles of justice where people are innocent until proven guilty by evidence not hearsay.

By the way, and the reason I first checked out this site was the discussion of Chris Long's article. The reason I joined is that this blog is awesome, you guys seemed like great fans, and I hoped to add to the conversation.

I believe in the right to free speech, because this is the best hope that reasonable ideas get aired. We all benefit from this in our country. Otherwise we would just be talking in an echo chamber and limiting ourselves to mindless insults and false beliefs, and never getting to know one another.

Anyway, I appreciate being allowed to participate, and guess I've shared what I wanted to contribute. If my perspective is unwelcome here, I will go on my way.

I'm sure we all hope the Rams are more competitive this coming season. This would only make the league stronger.