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AFC Championship Game Prediction: Cincinnati and Kansas City Clash in High-Stakes Rematch
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Game, with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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AFC Championship Game: Cincinnati and Kansas City Clash in High-Stakes Rematch
So, which of these things are you most tired of?- The Patrick Mahomes "Ankle Watch"
- "The Bengals have three offensive linemen out this week"
- Andy Reid drawing mustaches on his players in that insurance commercial
The Bengals are here after overcoming a very pedestrian 4-4 start by winning their next 10 games, including a dominant 27-10 rout in the snow at Buffalo last week. Joe Burrow might be the only person who found that to be a very surprising outcome as Cincy scored two touchdowns early on and essentially spent the rest of the game making snow angels and putting the kibosh on the dreams of Josh Allen and his Bills.
As for the Chiefs, remarkably this will be their fifth straight home AFC Championship Game, an incredible achievement in this day and age. But the Chiefs labored their way past Jacksonville, escaping with a seven-point win. All the while they watched as franchise QB Patrick Mahomes got his ankle rolled up on and backup Chad Henne had to come in for a series (albeit a 98-yard touchdown drive) before Mahomes was able to come back and hobble his way to a win. But again, I'm sure you all saw that drama play out.
AFC Championship Game: Cincinnati (12-4) at Kansas City (14-3)
Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 29 at 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Chiefs -1
Tickets: As low as $271 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. OK, let's go there. The Bengals O-line vs. the Chiefs' pass rush
Only ex-Viking Wade Wilson had suffered more postseason sacks through his first five postseason games (25) than Joe Burrow had (23), so this Bengal offensive line has a history of poor play. But as Tony Romo said during the broadcast, they "imposed their will" on the Bills in pass protection and in the running game. Cincy pounded them for 175 rushing yards… in the SNOW! They also allowed only one sack and three hits on Burrow. Wow. So can the Chiefs dent this front wall and actually halt the run game? Or turn "Joe Cool" into Joe Fool? Chris Jones is the obvious stud here, leading the Chiefs with 15.5 sacks this season. But the Chiefs are not second in the NFL in sacks due to one guy. Look for rookie George Karlaftis, Khalen Saunders, and Frank Clark to amp up the pressure too. And before we fawn all over the Bengals' revamped O-line, remember that the Ravens put on a ton of pressure (including four sacks) against the Bengals the week before. Can't wait to see how this matchup turns out.
2. The supporting actors
Now that we are in awards season, it's time to spotlight some of the players who may not win the Oscar but will play a bigger part in this week's game. First off, let's go back to Joe Mixon for the Bengals. He only rushed for 100 yards in one game this season until last week. But man alive, he went off in the snow at Buffalo, going over the river and through the hills for 105 yards on 20 carries. He and Samaje Perine could be leaned on a bit more in this one.
Also watch for tight end Hayden Hurst, who could be hobbled with a calf injury, but if he's 100 percent, he'll be another big target for Burrow, who connected with him five times for 59 yards and a touchdown last week.
On the other side, Chiefs rookie running back Isaih Pacheco is an explosive runner and has the piston-popping legs to allow KC to emphasize the running game this week. Obviously, a good running game will take some pressure off their injured QB, and most importantly, Pacheco having a good ground day will keep the ball out of Joe Burrow's hands too. Oh, and an interesting side note: the Chiefs are 10-1 this year in games where they have run for 100-plus yards. So this is a no-brainer.
3. Lou Anarumo's defense
This dude wrote the blueprint on how to stop (or slow down) Patrick Mahomes. I'm sure you all recall the Chiefs taking a 21-3 lead on the Bengals in last year's AFC Championship Game, only to see Mahomes and Co. get shut down the rest of the game while the Bengal offense charged back for a three-point win in overtime. After halftime, Mahomes was just 8-of-18 for 55 yards in the second half with two interceptions and four sacks. It was the worst second half of Mahomes' NFL career. Ney, his entire life. You can thank Anarumo, the Bengals' defensive coordinator, for that one. Mahomes may not scramble and improvise much this week, but we also must note that from passes thrown while in the pocket, he still ranked first in the NFL in QBR and in 20-plus yard throws. And if they blitz him, remember that Mahomes went 7-of-10, including a touchdown and a 122.9 passer rating when the Jaguars blitzed him last week.
Final Analysis
Before we wrap this preview up, one thing to keep in mind that wasn't listed above is to watch how this game gets going from early on. In their last five first quarters, the Black and Orange have outscored their opponents by a healthy 46-0. On top of that, their defense has an even more impressive stat in that they have not allowed a single touchdown in the first quarter of their last 12 games. THAT's what you call getting off to a good start, people.
As mentioned, the Bengals are kryptonite for Patrick Mahomes, having beaten him three straight times. That's why the biggest factor of all is the level of confidence that the Bengals are playing at. They beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead in last season's AFC Championship Game, 27-24 (in overtime). And they beat the Chiefs this year at home in Week 13, 27-24.
I just think this is the Bengals' time... again.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Chiefs 24
