Still a lot of football left so this is not a throw in the towel post or anything. But as I look at this team as it is currently built there are going to be a lot of changes. Some of them will be due to underperformance, others will be due to pay, but there's a great deal of them looming on the horizon for this roster. Here's a midseason estimate of how things stand. Note that I am making the assumption regarding the return of Fisher for his final season of his contract which I personally do not think is a given if they don't make the playoffs:
1. DE Long. He is an obvious pay cut, no two ways about it. I do think the Rams will be open to redoing his contract with a much lower cap number, not sure he will be though particularly if the team doesn't win this season.
2. TE Cook. Should probably be number one on this list, but he's still playing so there is room for him to pull his head out his <BLEEP> and start helping this team string together wins. But, yeah, he's gone. Cut almost for sure.
3. OG Saffold. I think there is a good chance the Rams cut bait with him. The Rams simply cannot continue to tie themselves to players who can't stay healthy. Plus it's not like the guy was playing lights out before he got hurt. He played his best ball right before his contract was out, if you guys recall. Imagine that. CYA Roger and no hard feelings.
4. WR Quick. Sometimes I want to puke when I think about the idiocy of taking a long term development project nowadays in the second round. Then I do puke when I think about how he was playing last year and how the Rams can't seem to throw him the ball and find out if he's any good before he becomes a FA. And lastly I am sure I'll puke next year when some team signs him and he plays the way he played last year for that team.
5. WR Austin. I've gone on about this before and will again here real quickly... I love the guy but he is not a fit for a power run-first scheme where you want to go over the top off of play action, and please don't cite how well he occasionally lays blocks for Gurley. Rams will probably trade him this offseason to a team that does throw the ball all over hell and creation, where he'll fit much better. Recoup a pick for a non-fit player, and draft some big WRs that fit WTF the Rams want to be.
6. C Barnes. He's had his moments both good and bad. But I just don't see the Rams getting all crazy with him in FA. I suspect they'll have a number they'll try to sign him at, but it will likely be very low given that their next center is on the roster already and will probably start regardless.
7. CB Jenkins. He is going to want to test the waters for the most money he can get. The Rams will likely franchise him. Not sure how he'll react to that, but it might include a holdout. If that happens a trade is possible, however my guess is he will play under the tag next season. He is on the list because there's a chance he will force a trade with a holdout.
8. CB Johnson. He is gone. If the Rams let Jenks walk or if Gaines is having a rough time recuperating from that injury they might put forth a big effort to keep Johnson but I think it's unlikely.
9. K Zuerline. I think Greg the Leg is gone. Fish stands up for him, but for all his leg the guy is too jittery for a team that is defensive-minded. They need a kicker who is more predictable in terms of results even if they give up some range in the deal.
Verrrry interesting post, Merlin. A thought provoking one, indeed,
I agree with you on some, but disagree on others.
I'll just comment on the ones with which we disagree. And with the proviso that these opinions are as of midseason. For example, a player like Quick could be resigned if he really blows it up in the next 8 games.
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I agree with your assessment of players 1-4
5. WR Austin. He stays. It's a no brainer. He's under contract through '16 at a minimum. He's one of only 2 playmakers on O.
6. C Barnes. Not a huge disagreement here, but I do think they like him and will keep him unless he gets unreasonable with his salary demands. They would like to keep the starting OL unit intact, if possible, for obvious reasons. BTW, who is this future starting C already on the roster you refer to?
7. CB Jenkins. He will not be franchised. Too expensive, and he's not worth it, anyway. They will try to sign him unless he gets unreasonable, however. They really like him, but only up to a certain price.
8. CB Johnson. Either Tru or JJ stays. They will NOT let both get away. My opinion? Tru had the better game vs the Vikes. JJ is a tad overrated with a top 10 CB burn rate that just came out today. So if Tru is the keeper, I would understand.
9. K Zuerlein. Could go either way. I know Fisher likes him, but I'm on the fence. Good kickers come out every year.
As an aside, I like the way you described Long as an obvious pay cut, as opposed to a kick the can down the road restructure. And it's gotta be a substantial one, at that. His gravy train ride is over.
