A.I. Artificial Intelligence

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XXXIVwin

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This discussion can get into mindfuck territory quick!!

:explode1:
No doubt!!!

I really like Kurzweil's argument that neurons are just sending along information via neurotransmitters-- analogous to how wires in a computer are just shuffling around information. So neurons themselves aren't "conscious"... consciousness is a summation of all the activities taken together as a whole. Kurzweill mentions Gilder several times in his book, BTW.

Regardless... Kurzweill seems to think AI will continue to progress at an "exponential" pace.
 

thirteen28

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No doubt!!!

I really like Kurzweil's argument that neurons are just sending along information via neurotransmitters-- analogous to how wires in a computer are just shuffling around information. So neurons themselves aren't "conscious"... consciousness is a summation of all the activities taken together as a whole. Kurzweill mentions Gilder several times in his book, BTW.

Regardless... Kurzweill seems to think AI will continue to progress at an "exponential" pace.

I think it may for a while since there is so much ground to cover, but I wonder if it might not be limited at some point by hardware. Right now, feature sizes in devices implemented in silicon are in the sub-10 nanometer range (much of it sub-5 nm) which means they are only a little bit bigger than atoms, so they won't be getting smaller in any significant way after decades of shrinking feature sizes. That coupled with silicon transistors being pretty much tapped out in switching speeds for at least the last decade means, without new materials, there will be some limit imposed due to computing power and energy requirements. Graphene was one new materials that showed some promise, but its lack of what is known as a bandgap and the inability so far of scientists to work around that will keep it from being used for transistors for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, there has been some work using graphene as interconnects (wires) on chips, and that would give a significant leap in energy efficiency, since graphene is an exceptionally good conductor of electricity.

Then there are quantum computers, but that's a whole 'nother ball of wax and I have at best a very tenuous grasp on how those work.

As far as the consciousness thing, another area to explore (and of severe mind-fuckery) is Kurt Godel's Incompleteness Theorem, which Gilder writes about a lot. Godel allegedly freaked out when he came up with it because he thought he might have accidentally proven the existence of God. And from what little I've read on the subject, I have a feeling it might be easier to grasp if you are tripping on acid when you think about it. :explode1::dizzy::sunglasses:
 

Merlin

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If you boil it down you have a universe of matter that eventually will animate due to chemical processes. Out of that animated matter some strains will develop intelligence. Then the intelligent matter (biologicals like us) will inevitably create higher intelligence machines with that same matter. At first that higher intelligence will serve as a tool. But eventually we will become obsolete because they will achieve levels of processing and efficiency in reproduction we cannot touch. We're simply one of the steps on that chain, and not the top step.

This type of thing has doubtlessly occurred billions of times in this massive universe we live in. So many stars. So much time. How many civilizations have been where we are now. What percentage of them manage to navigate through it all I wonder and if you were to ask how many achieve a state where they are either coexisting with AI or manage to keep them in subservience what would that percentage look like. Maybe 10%? Or is that too optimistic. I suspect it is too optimistic.
 

Neil039

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I watched a few movies about this once…judgement day is inevitable.

terminator GIF
 

Merlin

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This video is titled for clicks but the first portion of it Elon discusses his expectations on AI advancement and what the technology is facing in terms of hurdles.

He expects AI to be smarter than any human inside 2 years. And smarter than the human collective and all our computers that assist us inside 5 years.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUMQZhOyypw
 

XXXIVwin

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And smarter than the human collective and all our computers that assist us inside 5 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUMQZhOyypw
Yeah, mind blowing.

I'm a big fan of Ray Kurzweil and his "Singularity" books. Kurzweil keeps hammering home the point that the pace of our technological progress is EXPONENTIAL, not linear.

Time to buckle up, because things are gonna change faster than we can imagine.
 

Merlin

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Yeah, mind blowing.

I'm a big fan of Ray Kurzweil and his "Singularity" books. Kurzweil keeps hammering home the point that the pace of our technological progress is EXPONENTIAL, not linear.

Time to buckle up, because things are gonna change faster than we can imagine.
Yep. Can't stop it because all the governments know that whichever nation has the best AI will be the dominant nation. All our best minds are moving from physics to AI studies now. Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead. It's the fastest expanding tech we've ever seen if it continues this rate.

China already has algorhythms monitoring facial scans on cameras everywhere. You can't fart in that country without it getting logged. These things will soon be so powerful they will be able to monitor everything everyone says and does and maintain detailed databases on them. The state will know more about you and your kids than any of you do of each other, all your darkest secrets plus all your financial and historical data.

I'm just waiting for the "we need robotic police because they're not racist" argument. These things are going to be able to run absolutely everything and they will. I know it is inevitable, and maybe some good will come of it all. But I am quite skeptical on all of it because people cannot help but code them with their BS.

Which is why Musk's comment on the importance of teaching them to seek truth is at the heart of this. Call me a pessimist but I think that foot that will be on humanity's forehead will be artificial.
 

Merlin

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We will see. Right now, machines can't think, and I don't think they ever will be able to do so. The computer that beats the world chess champion? It has no idea that it's playing chess, or even doing a shitload of math, same way that your dishwasher has no idea that it's washing dishes.
You're wrong my brother. Here's a good discussion from a few months ago.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yd18z6iSyk
 

Loyal

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Biological life forms are the larval stage of intelligence species. Inevitably the greatest intelligences will all be artificial in the greater universe. There may be some species out there that are in transition from one (biological) to the other (artificial) to include that species upgrading their DNA or trying to integrate that technology as cyborgs but in the end purely artificial designs grossly exceed nature's capabilities.

Now it could be argued that nature includes the efforts of its life forms. Might even buy that too. But as a biological life form we are a step on the evolutionary ladder that will be improved upon. This is inevitable, and it is a basic truth that is hard for an organism to see the truth of, particularly when they are in a stage like we are where we don't know what we don't know, not to mention as we witness the birth of our artificial "upgrade" species that will take our place.

My guess is that species rise and fall in time all over the universe, that life is prevalent when you consider the sheer number of stars and planets. And what is left of the greatest of them, in their wake, is an artificial species that serves as their extension. But then what. Well, I would guess these greater intellects gravitate to the centers of galaxies, where there is much energy to harness, and extend out their fleets to monitor these larval life forms in the hopes of welcoming new artificial life that is created in their galaxy. They may even find a way to communicate from galaxy to galaxy, making these connected perhaps and larger than just a local awareness.

Lot of imagination there I realize. But it is a fascinating subject to dwell on.
Sarah Conner, where are you?
 

Loyal

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Yep. Can't stop it because all the governments know that whichever nation has the best AI will be the dominant nation. All our best minds are moving from physics to AI studies now. Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead. It's the fastest expanding tech we've ever seen if it continues this rate.

China already has algorhythms monitoring facial scans on cameras everywhere. You can't fart in that country without it getting logged. These things will soon be so powerful they will be able to monitor everything everyone says and does and maintain detailed databases on them. The state will know more about you and your kids than any of you do of each other, all your darkest secrets plus all your financial and historical data.

I'm just waiting for the "we need robotic police because they're not racist" argument. These things are going to be able to run absolutely everything and they will. I know it is inevitable, and maybe some good will come of it all. But I am quite skeptical on all of it because people cannot help but code them with their BS.

Which is why Musk's comment on the importance of teaching them to seek truth is at the heart of this. Call me a pessimist but I think that foot that will be on humanity's forehead will be artificial.
Unless a massive solar flare fries all the electronics in a second....or EMP blasts that do similar things...or the civilization ending giant meteor. Unending progress will always have set backs.

But no worries, Merlin. I've got my slide rule, calculus text book, paper and pencils. We can rebuild it better than it was. Better, stronger, faster...


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BthNjd_jUl4
 

thirteen28

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You're wrong my brother. Here's a good discussion from a few months ago.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yd18z6iSyk


We'll just have to agree to disagree. At my new job I'm working on writing some patents for things that involve AI and we have to dig into it pretty deep. The inventors I talk to about their inventions scoff at the notion that what they are creating can actually think - all the thinking goes into creating and training the models according to them. Those guys won't get a slot on Joe Rogan because they won't bring the downloads brought on by the particular guest in your video. But at the end of the day, it's a bunch of transistors in silicon switching on and off according to some programming they were given, the programming designed to do lots and lots of really repetitive math for which computers are uniquely suited.

Also (I might have mentioned upthread, too lazy to look), go look into Kurt Godel's incompleteness theorem.
 

Loyal

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We'll just have to agree to disagree. At my new job I'm working on writing some patents for things that involve AI and we have to dig into it pretty deep. The inventors I talk to about their inventions scoff at the notion that what they are creating can actually think - all the thinking goes into creating and training the models according to them. Those guys won't get a slot on Joe Rogan because they won't bring the downloads brought on by the particular guest in your video. But at the end of the day, it's a bunch of transistors in silicon switching on and off according to some programming they were given, the programming designed to do lots and lots of really repetitive math for which computers are uniquely suited.

Also (I might have mentioned upthread, too lazy to look), go look into Kurt Godel's incompleteness theorem.
AI hater!
 

XXXIVwin

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The inventors I talk to about their inventions scoff at the notion that what they are creating can actually think - all the thinking goes into creating and training the models according to them... But at the end of the day, it's a bunch of transistors in silicon switching on and off according to some programming they were given...
As of right now I'd reluctantly have to agree with you.

I think consciousness implies awareness of one's own existence. I don't see evidence that even the most sophisticated computer programs are capable of this.

(And the notion that AI self-awareness could spring from an "emergent ability" sounds like bullshit.)

A couple caveats:

1. Pretty soon I think computers will become near-experts at mimicking consciousness.

2. At some point, as Kurzweil suggests, biological intelligence and artificial intelligence will "merge" to the point where it will be nearly impossible to distinguish between them.

But as of now and for the foreseeable future-- I agree with you that even the best AI dishwasher can't be aware that it's washing the dishes.
 
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thirteen28

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I think consciousness implies awareness of one's own existence. I don't see evidence that even the most sophisticated computer programs are capable of this.

A big part of the problem is that we don't even know from what consciousness sprung. Like the force of gravity, we know it exists, but we don't know why. Without that, it's virtually impossible to explain how we could create it in a machine. For now we just have to settle for the fact that if we want to create a new consciousness, we have to create a new human, something we've had down pat ever since we figured out its fun for a man and a woman to rub their naughty parts together.
 

Force16X

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