Irritating that they talk about Kyren and that he bucked their stat trend and prediction, then don’t even show him in their list. They have him listed below but don’t show his projected TDs for ‘25. Seems a bit chicken shit if you ask me. I’m not aiming that criticism at you but you’d think they’d man up and give their projection on someone who they missed on before.
That was a list of "11 guys who will have less TDs in 2025 than 2024", so I'm glad he's not one of the eleven. He's first one listed after that though. Yeah, the 80% hit rate was bucked by both Kyren and Gurley.
"Of the 130 names in those reports, 117 scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 90%. Last season, the report correctly identified 14 of 17 TD dippers, with Kyren Williams (15 to 16), De'Von Achane (11 to 12) and Jordan Addison (10 to 10) the lone exceptions. The 17 players who averaged 13.0 TDs in 2023 were projected for 7.9 TDs in 2024 and ended up averaging 7.2.
During the 2011 to 2023 seasons, there were 256 instances in which a player totaled 10 or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those 256, a whopping 208 (81.3%) scored fewer touchdowns the next season, and the average change was a decrease of 4.9. Of the 61 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 58 (95.1%) scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 8.6). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley III (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018), Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014) and the aforementioned Williams."
Interesting. They probably learned their lesson as last year he was one of the guys projected to have less TDs but didn't. Even if they go to a RB committee, Kyren will get the most snaps inside the 10. As DB said, fantasy leagues reward TDs first and foremost. Then they get points for every 20 yards from scrimmage with bonuses for 100 yards or more, 150 or more, etc. The best league I played in was one that had individual players on defense. Sacks, interceptions, passes defensed, tackles, etc. Made it much more challenging (and entertaining). Not just about offense, just like football.
