2024: QB or LT in the First Round?

[Flatlyner]

It seems to me there have been more starting QBs who were drafted in the later rounds than good quality LTs. So draft an LT in the first round and take a QB in the second; unless the Rams can somehow manage to trade back up into the first round, thus giving them two picks in the first round.

I can't do too much of a deep dive at the moment, but, according to PFF, the best tackles who weren't drafted in 1st:
Mailata 7th
Bakhtiari 4th
Brown Jr 3rd
B.Smith 2nd
O'Neill 2nd
Armstead 3rd

All of the top 5 are 1st rounders, most high. Only 1 (Mailata) of the top 10 was not a 1st rounder.

Similar story with the QBs:
Hurts 2nd
Cousins 4th

The list is shorter but also not factoring in that the OT rankings are for both LT and RT, thus double the participants. I think I would conclude that it is more likely to hit on a OT outside of the 1st then a top tier QB, but both are obviously inherently prone to busts (as are all picks).

I'd be very interested in seeing the bust rates of each in the 1st round and I'm sure somewhere someone has done it.

 

[Flatlyner]

Narrator: The money is not, at least, similar.

So, Sanders makes $4.6 million in NIL money this season (2nd most of any college athlete). I'm not really sure where he would go in this draft, but certainly not before pick 4 I'd say at a minimum, likely a fair amount lower then that I'd think personally. Lets use Anthony Richardson's contract as an example, looks like at pick 4, base salary is $750k + 5.4m signing bonus = 6.18m. So 1.58m less for this season. I think its much more likely that in this draft Sanders would go more close to 8th overall then 4th.
This years 8th pick, Bijan, makes 3.99m.

And yea, I know that the the life of the contract certainly pays more, but, if you look where he likely gets picked and what he makes in NIL, it is in fact similar and more in fact in NIL $ (just apples to apples with draft slotted contracts). Throw in playing for his dad and potentially being drafted higher next year, I'd think he stays in college.

 

[Ramhusker]

If you’re really asking for preference, a LT should come first. But of course, you can’t chase a position if it’s not the best player on the board.

 

[XXXIVwin]

I'd go BPA at a position of need, depending on what happens after free agency.

My guess is the Rams are still hoping to win a SB with Stafford in either 24 or 25. So I don't see them spending their most premium pick on a QB. To win a SB you need a maxed out roster with stars in several areas. IMO it's harder to do that with 2 "franchise" QB's on the roster at the same time. Spend $ and resources at edge, CB, LT, C, DL... wherever we can upgrade.

Go for it as long as Stafford can. When he's done, get his replacement.

 

[Ramhusker]

In the meantime, let’s beat GB!

 

[WestCoastRam]

So, Sanders makes $4.6 million in NIL money this season (2nd most of any college athlete). I'm not really sure where he would go in this draft, but certainly not before pick 4 I'd say at a minimum, likely a fair amount lower then that I'd think personally. Lets use Anthony Richardson's contract as an example, looks like at pick 4, base salary is $750k + 5.4m signing bonus = 6.18m. So 1.58m less for this season. I think its much more likely that in this draft Sanders would go more close to 8th overall then 4th.
This years 8th pick, Bijan, makes 3.99m.

And yea, I know that the the life of the contract certainly pays more, but, if you look where he likely gets picked and what he makes in NIL, it is in fact similar and more in fact in NIL $ (just apples to apples with draft slotted contracts). Throw in playing for his dad and potentially being drafted higher next year, I'd think he stays in college.

AR's signing bonus was 21.72 mil. Bijan's was about 13 mil.

 

[XXXIVwin]

Honestly I'm a bit floored that so many think the Rams would be looking to draft MS's replacement as soon as next year.

They recently signed him to a 4 year 160M contract that will pay him in '24 and '25 and '26. Why would they waste their premium first round pick on a QB if they think they can win another Super Bowl with MS sometime in the next 3 years? Yeah he gets banged up, but it sure sounds like he's not considering retirement anytime soon. He was moving great this year prior to the hip contusion.

We'll see what happens, but I can't believe the Rams draft a franchise QB anytime soon. Bennett was specifically drafted to be a BACKUP and nothing more.

I think McVay and Snead will want to focus on surrounding MS with as many weapons as possible.

Manning, Rodgers, Favre, (Puke) Brady, Brees... plenty of recent examples of talented QB's playing through the end of their 30's and even into their early 40's. MS is "only" 36. I think MS is gonna hang on longer than many here seem to think. Manning had a ton of health issues and FOUR neck surgeries, yet he went on to win a SB at the ripe old age of 39.

One more ring and MS is a lock for the HOF. He'll be motivated to stick around once the Rams get back to their "All-In" ways.

 

[OnceARam]

Another question. How far down the QB rankings are you willing to take a QB? If it's late or Williams I get it. But how do y'all feel about nix or McCarthy?

McCarthy is interesting. Nix is a no.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Honestly I'm a bit floored that so many think the Rams would be looking to draft MS's replacement as soon as next year.

They recently signed him to a 4 year 160M contract that will pay him in '24 and '25 and '26. Why would they waste their premium first round pick on a QB if they think they can win another Super Bowl with MS sometime in the next 3 years? Yeah he gets banged up, but it sure sounds like he's not considering retirement anytime soon. He was moving great this year prior to the hip contusion.

We'll see what happens, but I can't believe the Rams draft a franchise QB anytime soon. Bennett was specifically drafted to be a BACKUP and nothing more.

I think McVay and Snead will want to focus on surrounding MS with as many weapons as possible.

Manning, Rodgers, Favre, (Puke) Brady, Brees... plenty of recent examples of talented QB's playing through the end of their 30's and even into their early 40's. MS is "only" 36. I think MS is gonna hang on longer than many here seem to think. Manning had a ton of health issues and FOUR neck surgeries, yet he went on to win a SB at the ripe old age of 39.

One more ring and MS is a lock for the HOF. He'll be motivated to stick around once the Rams get back to their "All-In" ways.

I think it's a knee jerk reaction to the possibility of a historic QB class next year. I can feel my knee about to kick right now as games get going today...

 

[Merlin]

They do need to draft a QB from this class. If they don't I'm gonna be pissed. Just a matter of where they take the shot on one.

 

[Flatlyner]

AR's signing bonus was 21.72 mil. Bijan's was about 13 mil.

Oh ok, the Spottrac break downs have them taking out the signing bonus on a yearly basis, but, based on the name "signing bonus" it does make sense that they get that whole chunk at signing. Either way, the top NIL guys certainly aren't hurting for $ by sticking around. Not to mention, being a top 3 pick is far more lucrative.

 

[Flatlyner]

They do need to draft a QB from this class. If they don't I'm gonna be pissed. Just a matter of where they take the shot on one.

I agree. This is too deep of a QB class. You can pick up Stafford eventual replacement in the 2nd round IMO. One of the top 3 Edge rushers wouldn't be a terrible pick in the first (Turner, Latu, Verse).

 

[Ram_Rally]

McCarthy is interesting. Nix is a no.

Yeah I stop at Maye. Maybe too conservative of me. But Alt is a franchise tackle. Verse is a franchise edge rusher. Hate to pass up on sure things for risky QBs.

 

[OnceARam]

Yeah I stop at Maye. Maybe too conservative of me. But Alt is a franchise tackle. Verse is a franchise edge rusher. Hate to pass up on sure things for risky QBs.

I agree considering we should be in a window in 24 and 25. Spending a high pick on a draft and develop QB just isn't realistic and is a waste of resources when we desperately need LT/Edge.

 

[Memphis Ram]

BPA

 

[Gandalf]

You have to let the draft come to you. It isn't wise going into the draft looking to fill a particular position first. We have multiple needs and a stud player fitting one of our top needs will be there. There is the option of trading down a little to align position with value, but that hasn't really worked out for us in the past.