Why starting Josh Reynolds in 2020 could be an issue for the Rams

[ROD-BOT]

Why starting Josh Reynolds in 2020 could be an issue for the Rams

Even though Sean McVay seems content with going back to him every time a receiver becomes unavailable

www.turfshowtimes.com

Why starting Josh Reynolds in 2020 could be an issue for the Rams

Warren Sharp writes about the NFL and he has a website, writers, and an annual season preview, the 2020 version of which you can purchase here.

Within that, you can see team breakdowns such as advanced offensive and defensive metrics (the LA Rams were sixth in red zone offense but 29th in red zone defense last season), strength of schedule, betting lines, usage rate by player and situation (Malcolm Brown was the main back when the Rams led by 9+), target distribution by player and distance, personnel groupings, and plenty more.

When it comes to the outlook for the 2020 Rams based on the tendencies of 2017-2019, I want to focus on what the preview pointed out regarding personnel groupings, as this was the writer’s main focus in the section for Los Angeles.

I think it will be easier if I break it down in bulletpoints while adding in some of my own research. I will hold back in revealing everything from the season preview, but trust me there’s plenty in there besides these notes.

• In 2017, Sean McVay used 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) 81-percent of the time. That was up from 66-percent under Jeff Fisher in 2016 and well above the NFL average of 59-percent.
• With Robert Woods through 11 games in 2017, the Rams were in 11 personnel 74-percent of the time, 85-percent of passing plays. Without Woods for the next three weeks, 11 personnel went up to 92-percent of total plays and 96-percent of passing plays.
• Woods had been Jared Goff’s top target up to then, catching 47 of 70 throws for 703 yards, 10 yards per target and 15 yards per reception.
• Instead of using 11 personnel less, he used Josh Reynolds more. Reynolds had played in only 84 snaps and been targeted three times prior to Week 12, at which point he had 62 snaps and was targeted six times. Reynolds caught four passes for 37 yards and a touchdown that week against the New Orleans Saints, a win. The next week he was target six times again, but caught only two of those for six yards. The next week he caught two of two for 17 yards.
• Goff’s Y/A dropped from 8.2 with Woods to 7.7 in the three games without him.

Sharp then examines how McVay responded in 2018, his most successful season to date.

• Los Angeles was in 11 personnel on 97-percent of their offensive plays in the first four games of 2018.
• Again a receiver was hurt, this time Cooper Kupp. After playing in all but a handful of offensive snaps, Kupp could only manage 55-percent and 38-percent of snaps in the next two games, both road wins. This didn’t change McVay’s usage of 11 personnel at all, as he maintained around 97-percent, even when Kupp was finally rested. Kupp returned to play in all 60 snaps against the New Orleans Saints in week 9, but was placed on IR two weeks later. The usage of personnel did not change.
• Reynolds played in nine snaps in the first four weeks. Then when Kupp was injured, 55-percent of the snaps in Week 5. Then 62-percent. Then 84-percent. Then 88-percent. Without Woods, Reynolds was a starter. Without Kupp, Reynolds was a starter. An ineffective one.
• Goff posted a 10.3 Y/A, 59-percent success rate, and .39 EPA (Estimated Points Added) per attempt with a fully-healthy offense in the first quarter of the season. Without Kupp from Weeks 11-15 and with the same basic strategy, Goff posted 6.3 Y/A, 49-percent success, and -.07 EPA/attempt. The passing game, even for a team on its way to the Super Bowl, was technically a net negative over that quarter of the season. This includes scoring 54 points against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Then 2019 did see McVay play with new packages on offense.

• The Rams were in 11 personnel on an NFL-high 85-percent of snaps in the first quarter of last season.
• From Weeks 5-7, LA was in 11 on 66-percent of snaps, in 12 on 24-percent of snaps, and in 13 on eight-percent. “13 personnel” would be one running back, three tight ends, and one receiver. “12” would be one running back, two tight ends, and two receivers.
• The Rams were much more successful out of 11 during this time span.
• They ran the ball a lot more from 12 and 13, but those runs were on average much less successful than running from 11.
• When Brandin Cooks was hurt this time, McVay again responded with more 11 and more Reynolds. They went into 11 on 98-percent of snaps when Cooks was injured vs the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8. They were in 11 on 94-percent in Week 10.
• Without Cooks, Goff was bad.
• Without Cooks and Woods in Week 11, they were in 12 on 67-percent of their snaps, a 17-7 win over the Chicago Bears.
• When Woods and Cooks returned in Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens, McVay went 11 on 98-percent of the snaps, losing 45-6.
• Without Gerald Everett for the final five games, McVay used 11 personnel 64-percent of the time and 12 personnel 34-percent. Instead of playing his receivers more, he played tight end Johnny Mundt more, going from 0 snaps against the Ravens to 23, 49, 11, 31, and 34 snaps in each of the final games, respectively.
• When Reynolds has started since 2017, the Rams offense has dipped by one full yard per pass attempt, four-percent in success rate, Goff’s passer rating drops from 96.8 to 83.1, and the EPA per attempt drops to nearly 0. Essentially with Reynolds, the passing “attack” has been anything but.
• Goff wasn’t sacked in any of his 80 dropbacks last season with two tight ends.

Trying to predict what Sean McVay will do next — with Kupp and Woods but for the first time not starting a season with a known third threat at receiver — would be ignoring the fact that he seems to do the opposite of the expectation in most of these cases. Is it as simple as predicting him to do the opposite of the expectation, which may be more 12 personnel?

Does the draft pick of Brycen Hopkins in the fourth indicate more 12 and 13 personnel? Does taking Cam Akers and Van Jefferson in the second indicate going back to 11 on 95-percent of the snaps? Can Jared Goff be expected to produce an above average EPA per play without a healthy Cooks, Woods, and a third receiver? Even if that receiver is Josh Reynolds?

These are not questions that can be worked out in the preseason, only scrimmages, and those full pad practices can’t even begin until August 17, about three weeks before the first regular season game. It may be that we see a lot of teams do dramatic personnel changes after the first quarter of the season anyway because there is no preseason. Or maybe not because we know we won’t be able to predict much of anything.

Except that whatever McVay does, unless he comes to camp as a completely different player, maybe it shouldn’t include more snaps for Reynolds.

 

[kurtfaulk]

Except that whatever McVay does, unless he comes to camp as a completely different player, maybe it shouldn’t include more snaps for Reynolds.

i couldn't agree more with this statement.

.

 

[bluecoconuts]

I think Van Jefferson is going to pass Reynolds quickly, if not out the gate. Training camp being how it is will make it harder most likely.

I also think we'll see a bigger mix of formations this year than previous years.

 

[Dxmissile]

Lmao this article is ridiculous

 

[kurtfaulk]

there was way too much of a wall of text for me to read it, thankfully. but the conclusion is spot on. reynolds has to show more to stay on the field. sometimes he looks like a game breaker, other times he looks like a cut candidate. with jefferson on the team now the pressure is on reynolds to perform consistently. i don't think it will take long for the coaches to see that jefferson is the better wr.

.

 

[kurtfaulk]

How is that even possible? How many crunch time passes have we seen Reynolds show no fight to go up and get the ball? If the coaches don't trust Jefferson they better be going to more 12 personnel. Mcvay always says Everett is a superstar in the making.

.

 

[So Ram]

Why starting Josh Reynolds in 2020 could be an issue for the Rams

Even though Sean McVay seems content with going back to him every time a receiver becomes unavailable

www.turfshowtimes.com

Why starting Josh Reynolds in 2020 could be an issue for the Rams

Warren Sharp writes about the NFL and he has a website, writers, and an annual season preview, the 2020 version of which you can purchase here.

Within that, you can see team breakdowns such as advanced offensive and defensive metrics (the LA Rams were sixth in red zone offense but 29th in red zone defense last season), strength of schedule, betting lines, usage rate by player and situation (Malcolm Brown was the main back when the Rams led by 9+), target distribution by player and distance, personnel groupings, and plenty more.

When it comes to the outlook for the 2020 Rams based on the tendencies of 2017-2019, I want to focus on what the preview pointed out regarding personnel groupings, as this was the writer’s main focus in the section for Los Angeles.

I think it will be easier if I break it down in bulletpoints while adding in some of my own research. I will hold back in revealing everything from the season preview, but trust me there’s plenty in there besides these notes.

• In 2017, Sean McVay used 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three receivers) 81-percent of the time. That was up from 66-percent under Jeff Fisher in 2016 and well above the NFL average of 59-percent.
• With Robert Woods through 11 games in 2017, the Rams were in 11 personnel 74-percent of the time, 85-percent of passing plays. Without Woods for the next three weeks, 11 personnel went up to 92-percent of total plays and 96-percent of passing plays.
• Woods had been Jared Goff’s top target up to then, catching 47 of 70 throws for 703 yards, 10 yards per target and 15 yards per reception.
• Instead of using 11 personnel less, he used Josh Reynolds more. Reynolds had played in only 84 snaps and been targeted three times prior to Week 12, at which point he had 62 snaps and was targeted six times. Reynolds caught four passes for 37 yards and a touchdown that week against the New Orleans Saints, a win. The next week he was target six times again, but caught only two of those for six yards. The next week he caught two of two for 17 yards.
• Goff’s Y/A dropped from 8.2 with Woods to 7.7 in the three games without him.

Sharp then examines how McVay responded in 2018, his most successful season to date.

• Los Angeles was in 11 personnel on 97-percent of their offensive plays in the first four games of 2018.
• Again a receiver was hurt, this time Cooper Kupp. After playing in all but a handful of offensive snaps, Kupp could only manage 55-percent and 38-percent of snaps in the next two games, both road wins. This didn’t change McVay’s usage of 11 personnel at all, as he maintained around 97-percent, even when Kupp was finally rested. Kupp returned to play in all 60 snaps against the New Orleans Saints in week 9, but was placed on IR two weeks later. The usage of personnel did not change.
• Reynolds played in nine snaps in the first four weeks. Then when Kupp was injured, 55-percent of the snaps in Week 5. Then 62-percent. Then 84-percent. Then 88-percent. Without Woods, Reynolds was a starter. Without Kupp, Reynolds was a starter. An ineffective one.
• Goff posted a 10.3 Y/A, 59-percent success rate, and .39 EPA (Estimated Points Added) per attempt with a fully-healthy offense in the first quarter of the season. Without Kupp from Weeks 11-15 and with the same basic strategy, Goff posted 6.3 Y/A, 49-percent success, and -.07 EPA/attempt. The passing game, even for a team on its way to the Super Bowl, was technically a net negative over that quarter of the season. This includes scoring 54 points against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Then 2019 did see McVay play with new packages on offense.

• The Rams were in 11 personnel on an NFL-high 85-percent of snaps in the first quarter of last season.
• From Weeks 5-7, LA was in 11 on 66-percent of snaps, in 12 on 24-percent of snaps, and in 13 on eight-percent. “13 personnel” would be one running back, three tight ends, and one receiver. “12” would be one running back, two tight ends, and two receivers.
• The Rams were much more successful out of 11 during this time span.
• They ran the ball a lot more from 12 and 13, but those runs were on average much less successful than running from 11.
• When Brandin Cooks was hurt this time, McVay again responded with more 11 and more Reynolds. They went into 11 on 98-percent of snaps when Cooks was injured vs the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8. They were in 11 on 94-percent in Week 10.
• Without Cooks, Goff was bad.
• Without Cooks and Woods in Week 11, they were in 12 on 67-percent of their snaps, a 17-7 win over the Chicago Bears.
• When Woods and Cooks returned in Week 12 against the Baltimore Ravens, McVay went 11 on 98-percent of the snaps, losing 45-6.
• Without Gerald Everett for the final five games, McVay used 11 personnel 64-percent of the time and 12 personnel 34-percent. Instead of playing his receivers more, he played tight end Johnny Mundt more, going from 0 snaps against the Ravens to 23, 49, 11, 31, and 34 snaps in each of the final games, respectively.
• When Reynolds has started since 2017, the Rams offense has dipped by one full yard per pass attempt, four-percent in success rate, Goff’s passer rating drops from 96.8 to 83.1, and the EPA per attempt drops to nearly 0. Essentially with Reynolds, the passing “attack” has been anything but.
• Goff wasn’t sacked in any of his 80 dropbacks last season with two tight ends.

Trying to predict what Sean McVay will do next — with Kupp and Woods but for the first time not starting a season with a known third threat at receiver — would be ignoring the fact that he seems to do the opposite of the expectation in most of these cases. Is it as simple as predicting him to do the opposite of the expectation, which may be more 12 personnel?

Does the draft pick of Brycen Hopkins in the fourth indicate more 12 and 13 personnel? Does taking Cam Akers and Van Jefferson in the second indicate going back to 11 on 95-percent of the snaps? Can Jared Goff be expected to produce an above average EPA per play without a healthy Cooks, Woods, and a third receiver? Even if that receiver is Josh Reynolds?

These are not questions that can be worked out in the preseason, only scrimmages, and those full pad practices can’t even begin until August 17, about three weeks before the first regular season game. It may be that we see a lot of teams do dramatic personnel changes after the first quarter of the season anyway because there is no preseason. Or maybe not because we know we won’t be able to predict much of anything.

Except that whatever McVay does, unless he comes to camp as a completely different player, maybe it shouldn’t include more snaps for Reynolds.

What should be known is Kupp,Everett, & Reynolds all become Free Agents to start.

The drafting of Hopkins & Jefferson were Value Picks,but also knowing the above.

Hopkins will not get much playing time & The Rams WR’s are young moving forward after 2020.

I think Nisimba Webster is underrated by Ram Fans ????

 

[So Ram]

I think Van Jefferson is going to pass Reynolds quickly, if not out the gate. Training camp being how it is will make it harder most likely.

I also think we'll see a bigger mix of formations this year than previous years.

I still LMAO on the Gerald Everett take around here ??? He closed his twitter account & then it is a (DONE DEAL) he is getting traded ??

My question is if Kupp,Reynolds or Everett get resigned ??

I stay on point with Reynolds & Jefferson. Have no idea what 2020 looks like between these 2 players.

What I do know is there were talks about Reynolds signing an extension before the 2020 draft.

Jefferson fell into The Rams lap. There was a poster here on LiVE talking about Jefferson being a 1st rd pick.
The next thing you know,Day 2 Jefferson is a Ram.

 

[So Ram]

There is more as well, which was silly.

Mcvay 2017 ???

Here we are in 2020 & The Rams are on there 4th OC in 4 years. Who is even talking about that ??

 

[So Ram]

Everett was hurt at the end of the season. He got thrown to a lot early in the season.

If you went to camp in 2019 Cd years before you could see Everett & Higbee we’re going to get thrown to more.

Less Jet Sweeps ?? Then again all these WR are Blue Collar types.

The RB postion looked different because Gurley was on a Rep Count vs years past he would stay after every practice working on his hands & routes.

Then after Looking back at 2019 TE’s ??
Let’s see ??? Everett & Higbee we’re healthy.

Then Let’s see ? McvY was a TE’s coach in Washington???

Then let’s see ?? The coach that took his place for 2 seasons is hired by Mcvay.

Then let’s see ?? The OC from Washington Mcvay hired .

Phillips doesn’t get the Credit he deserved coaching up Tyler Higbee & Gerald Everett should be really productive in 2020 as well.

As dude quotes 2017 Mcvay things have revolved differently from the TAVON Austin Days.

Add Waldron as the OC last season from being the TE’s coach. That is a lot of TIGHT END coaching.Hope there is more self distancing & not as much videoing as well.

Maybe they continue to try to make Everett more of a Wide Out. Let the DIVA out in him.

 

[Snaz]

Goff wasn’t sacked in any of his 80 dropbacks last season with two tight ends.

 

[Tano]

I may be wrong about this but I feel Reynolds is at his best in the red zone and should mostly be used in that area.

 

[Snaz]

I may be wrong about this but I feel Reynolds is at his best in the red zone and should mostly be used in that area.

I think Reynolds is best on the bench.

 

[Snaz]

I don't understand your post. Yes, water is wet and all, but I quoted from the article.
Looks like the Rams were better in 12 than in 11 based on that quote.

 

[dieterbrock]

I think the nugget in that whole OP was:
" Without Gerald Everett for the final five games, McVay used 11 personnel 64-percent of the time and 12 personnel 34-percent. Instead of playing his receivers more, he played tight end Johnny Mundt more, going from 0 snaps against the Ravens to 23, 49, 11, 31, and 34 snaps in each of the final games, respectively "
In those final 5 games we sorta saw the "Real Rams" offense return.
29 points per game
Goff 11 TD passes to 4 INT, 100 QB rating
Rams rushing 100 yards per game
And were thisclose to finishing 4-1 had they been able to stop San Fran on 3rd and forever, possibly make playoffs.
Who was absent during that quasi renaissance?
Well, Gerald Everett for one, as previously mentioned he was hurt and missed those 5 games
And.... Josh Reynolds. With Cooks clearly not himself, JR had a chance to shine but could only muster 8 catches for 107 yards total for those 5 games.

So I'd be careful not to pick up one of their jerseys any time soon since it may be on the pile with other former Rams.

 

[Merlin]

JRey has a ton to prove. Staff's been talking that dude up since day one, but I have yet to see him reward that confidence on the field. He's just not gifted in the things this offense requires (smart route runners at the most basic level). And IMO we have a QB in Goff who tends to read quickly past receivers who have a DB on them (some QBs never do get comfortable throwing to "jump ball" type wideouts).

Jefferson is so much better of a fit. I don't know if he's going to be ready early on this season though, he might need part of the season to settle in and build some trust with Goff. But when he does have mastery of the offense it's hard to imagine him not getting a ton of snaps because he can get quick separation but also serve in that deep role. If and when he gets to that level I think we're going to see this wideout group settle in as a very, very good unit.