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http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9939104/nfl-why-seattle-seahawks-flawed-powerhouse
There is a classic football adage that says in order for a team to win, it first has to keep itself from losing.
From a personnel perspective, the saying means having any number of strengths is a plus, but not having weak links can be just as important, if not more important.
This train of thought comes to mind when reviewing the 2013 edition of the Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll's club has the second-best record in the NFL (8-1) and may have the most talented squad in the league, but nearly every section of this team has a significant weakness that makes the Seahawks a flawed powerhouse.
To illustrate this, let's take a look at the main strengths and weaknesses of each part of Seattle's offense and defense.
Passing defense
Strengths: This is by far the most talented section of the Seahawks roster and it shows in their metric totals. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Seattle's defense ranks third in Total QBR (35.4), second in pass yards allowed per game (179.78), first in yards per attempt (5.47), second in interception percentage (4.4 percent) and fifth in sacks per attempt (9.8 percent). Very few teams combine the ability to cover, rush the passer and pick off passes the way the Seahawks do.
Weaknesses: Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner can both dominate in coverage, but their metrics indicate there is an avenue to complete passes against them.
In Browner's case, he completely shuts down the short pass (3.8 YPA on 12 attempts) but is very poor against vertical passes (11.0 YPA on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). This latter figure isn't an anomaly for Browner: In the 2011 season, he allowed an 11.3 vertical YPA, a total that ranked 63rd among cornerbacks. He is the player to target for downfield throws.
In Sherman's case, throwing vertical passes is a no-go (6.6 vertical YPA) that is made doubly tough by his ball-hawking ability on those routes (two interceptions and two near interceptions on 16 vertical targets).
Where Sherman can be targeted is on short passes. His 6.8 YPA here indicates he is willing to give up some short gains as long as he doesn't allow any longer passes.
Seattle's high team total for picks is not due to forcing opposing quarterbacks into a lot of mistakes. Their 1.6 percent forced bad decision rate (BDR, a metric that gauges how often a defense is able to turn an opposing passer's mental error into a turnover opportunity) is less than half of their 3.9 percent BDR mark from 2012 (best in the league) and is also well below the 2.0-2.5 percent level that serves as a the general midpoint for performance in this category.
Rushing defense
Strengths: This is the toughest area to find a strong point. The most notable could be that the Seahawks are allowing opposing rushing attacks to post a 42.2 percent good blocking rate (GBR, a measure of how often an offense gives its runners good blocking, which is very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt). That is nearly identical to Seattle's 42.1 percent GBR from the 2012 season that ranked sixth best in the league.
Another notable plus is a 6.9-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that tracks productivity on rush plays with good blocking, a total that is a half-yard better than the Seahawks 7.4-yard GBYPA allowed mark in 2012.
Weaknesses: Seattle's main metrics here are mediocre, as they rank 19th in rush yards allowed per game (116.22), rush yards per attempt (4.22) and 18th in rush yards after contact (1.50).
Upon closer examination, this group looks even worse, and is trending downward in a major way. This may be best summarized in the good blocking productivity (GBP) metric that combines GBR and GBYPA to gauge overall effectiveness on plays with good blocking. After seven games, Seattle had posted a 2.5 GBP that was actually better than Minnesota's league-leading 2.7 GBP in 2012. Over the past two games, however, the Seahawks gave up a 3.9 GBP, which is the caliber of figure that will normally place in the bottom five of the league in this category.
The tape review shows that a combination of Seattle defenders being beaten at the point of attack, some bad run-gap fits and poor tackling were what led to the high GBP figure. The result was a combined 405 ground yards allowed to St. Louis and Tampa Bay, two of the league's worst offenses.
Passing offense
Strengths: According to ESPN Stats & Information, Seattle's 7.56 passing yards per attempt (YPA) ranks seventh in the league. The Seahawks also have two receivers with a double-digit YPA (Doug Baldwin, 10.56, and Jermaine Kearse, 11.4) and Russell Wilson is tied for seventh in the league with 15 touchdown passes.
Weaknesses: While Wilson is far from going through a sophomore slump, he has taken a step back in the area of Total QBR. In 2012, Wilson had a Total QBR of 50.0 or higher in 10 of his last 12 regular-season games, and fell below the 39.0 mark in this category only three times all season. So far this year, Wilson has posted a Total QBR of less than 50 three times in nine games, and all of those have been at the 25.9 mark or lower.
A contributing factor to those subpar numbers is Seattle's 11.3 percent sacks per attempt percentage, a total that ranks 30th in the league, but the biggest contributor could be Wilson's fumbling issues. He has put the ball on the ground eight times this year and lost five of those fumbles, both of which rank 31st among quarterbacks.
Rushing offense
Strengths: The Seahawks have one of the best workhorse backs in Marshawn Lynch, who ranks second in the league in rush yards (726) and 10th in yards after contact per rush (1.91). Wilson may be the best running quarterback in the NFL, as he tops all players at that position in rush attempts (67) and ranks second in rushing yards (375). This combination is why Seattle ranks fifth in the league in rushing yards per game (147), seventh in yards per rush (4.59) and tops in rushes of 10 or more yards (48).
Weaknesses: Seattle also leads the league in number of carries that gain zero or fewer yards (66). This is a natural side effect of leaning on the run as much as the Seahawks do, but it does indicate this ground game can be a bit too hit or miss.
Looking ahead
The addition of Percy Harvin may go a long ways to correcting some of the offensive issues, and the sum total of the pass defense metrics is still a major positive. But the run defense issue looks to have the potential to be a major stumbling block.
The Seahawks' schedule doesn't look to be very daunting in regards to facing strong rushing offenses, as they have four matchups against teams that rank 24th or worse in rush yards per game, but that also didn't look to be an issue going up against the Rams and the Bucs, both of whom had backup starting running backs in their lineup.
Seattle still has more than enough strengths to make it to the postseason, but if they don't find a way to get their run defense issues corrected prior to the playoffs, it could be a major hindrance in an NFC tournament that could include matchups against Green Bay (a team with a very strong rushing attack), San Francisco (first in the NFL in rush yards per game), Washington (sixth in rush yards per game) or Carolina (eighth).
There is a classic football adage that says in order for a team to win, it first has to keep itself from losing.
From a personnel perspective, the saying means having any number of strengths is a plus, but not having weak links can be just as important, if not more important.
This train of thought comes to mind when reviewing the 2013 edition of the Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll's club has the second-best record in the NFL (8-1) and may have the most talented squad in the league, but nearly every section of this team has a significant weakness that makes the Seahawks a flawed powerhouse.
To illustrate this, let's take a look at the main strengths and weaknesses of each part of Seattle's offense and defense.
Passing defense
Strengths: This is by far the most talented section of the Seahawks roster and it shows in their metric totals. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Seattle's defense ranks third in Total QBR (35.4), second in pass yards allowed per game (179.78), first in yards per attempt (5.47), second in interception percentage (4.4 percent) and fifth in sacks per attempt (9.8 percent). Very few teams combine the ability to cover, rush the passer and pick off passes the way the Seahawks do.
Weaknesses: Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner can both dominate in coverage, but their metrics indicate there is an avenue to complete passes against them.
In Browner's case, he completely shuts down the short pass (3.8 YPA on 12 attempts) but is very poor against vertical passes (11.0 YPA on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). This latter figure isn't an anomaly for Browner: In the 2011 season, he allowed an 11.3 vertical YPA, a total that ranked 63rd among cornerbacks. He is the player to target for downfield throws.
In Sherman's case, throwing vertical passes is a no-go (6.6 vertical YPA) that is made doubly tough by his ball-hawking ability on those routes (two interceptions and two near interceptions on 16 vertical targets).
Where Sherman can be targeted is on short passes. His 6.8 YPA here indicates he is willing to give up some short gains as long as he doesn't allow any longer passes.
Seattle's high team total for picks is not due to forcing opposing quarterbacks into a lot of mistakes. Their 1.6 percent forced bad decision rate (BDR, a metric that gauges how often a defense is able to turn an opposing passer's mental error into a turnover opportunity) is less than half of their 3.9 percent BDR mark from 2012 (best in the league) and is also well below the 2.0-2.5 percent level that serves as a the general midpoint for performance in this category.
Rushing defense
Strengths: This is the toughest area to find a strong point. The most notable could be that the Seahawks are allowing opposing rushing attacks to post a 42.2 percent good blocking rate (GBR, a measure of how often an offense gives its runners good blocking, which is very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt). That is nearly identical to Seattle's 42.1 percent GBR from the 2012 season that ranked sixth best in the league.
Another notable plus is a 6.9-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that tracks productivity on rush plays with good blocking, a total that is a half-yard better than the Seahawks 7.4-yard GBYPA allowed mark in 2012.
Weaknesses: Seattle's main metrics here are mediocre, as they rank 19th in rush yards allowed per game (116.22), rush yards per attempt (4.22) and 18th in rush yards after contact (1.50).
Upon closer examination, this group looks even worse, and is trending downward in a major way. This may be best summarized in the good blocking productivity (GBP) metric that combines GBR and GBYPA to gauge overall effectiveness on plays with good blocking. After seven games, Seattle had posted a 2.5 GBP that was actually better than Minnesota's league-leading 2.7 GBP in 2012. Over the past two games, however, the Seahawks gave up a 3.9 GBP, which is the caliber of figure that will normally place in the bottom five of the league in this category.
The tape review shows that a combination of Seattle defenders being beaten at the point of attack, some bad run-gap fits and poor tackling were what led to the high GBP figure. The result was a combined 405 ground yards allowed to St. Louis and Tampa Bay, two of the league's worst offenses.
Passing offense
Strengths: According to ESPN Stats & Information, Seattle's 7.56 passing yards per attempt (YPA) ranks seventh in the league. The Seahawks also have two receivers with a double-digit YPA (Doug Baldwin, 10.56, and Jermaine Kearse, 11.4) and Russell Wilson is tied for seventh in the league with 15 touchdown passes.
Weaknesses: While Wilson is far from going through a sophomore slump, he has taken a step back in the area of Total QBR. In 2012, Wilson had a Total QBR of 50.0 or higher in 10 of his last 12 regular-season games, and fell below the 39.0 mark in this category only three times all season. So far this year, Wilson has posted a Total QBR of less than 50 three times in nine games, and all of those have been at the 25.9 mark or lower.
A contributing factor to those subpar numbers is Seattle's 11.3 percent sacks per attempt percentage, a total that ranks 30th in the league, but the biggest contributor could be Wilson's fumbling issues. He has put the ball on the ground eight times this year and lost five of those fumbles, both of which rank 31st among quarterbacks.
Rushing offense
Strengths: The Seahawks have one of the best workhorse backs in Marshawn Lynch, who ranks second in the league in rush yards (726) and 10th in yards after contact per rush (1.91). Wilson may be the best running quarterback in the NFL, as he tops all players at that position in rush attempts (67) and ranks second in rushing yards (375). This combination is why Seattle ranks fifth in the league in rushing yards per game (147), seventh in yards per rush (4.59) and tops in rushes of 10 or more yards (48).
Weaknesses: Seattle also leads the league in number of carries that gain zero or fewer yards (66). This is a natural side effect of leaning on the run as much as the Seahawks do, but it does indicate this ground game can be a bit too hit or miss.
Looking ahead
The addition of Percy Harvin may go a long ways to correcting some of the offensive issues, and the sum total of the pass defense metrics is still a major positive. But the run defense issue looks to have the potential to be a major stumbling block.
The Seahawks' schedule doesn't look to be very daunting in regards to facing strong rushing offenses, as they have four matchups against teams that rank 24th or worse in rush yards per game, but that also didn't look to be an issue going up against the Rams and the Bucs, both of whom had backup starting running backs in their lineup.
Seattle still has more than enough strengths to make it to the postseason, but if they don't find a way to get their run defense issues corrected prior to the playoffs, it could be a major hindrance in an NFC tournament that could include matchups against Green Bay (a team with a very strong rushing attack), San Francisco (first in the NFL in rush yards per game), Washington (sixth in rush yards per game) or Carolina (eighth).