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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-14-dvoa-ratings
Week 14 DVOA Ratings
by Aaron Schatz
This week, the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams played the best and closest of the recent DVOA Bowl games. The Eagles pulled out a 43-35 win (that was really a 37-35 win plus a meaningless touchdown returning the Rams' fumble on an end-game "zillions of laterals" attempt). So the team that wins the DVOA Bowl should be No. 1 in DVOA now, right?
Nope.
DVOA analyzes the play-by-play and cares not for the simple binary of win and loss. And when it analyzes the play-by-play for this game, it says that the way the Rams played is much more indicative of future success than the way the Eagles played. It was one of a number of close games this week where the team that lost came out with the higher DVOA rating.
Here's a look at the DVOA. Remember, both teams get big bumps from the opponent adjustments. But those bumps are similar for both teams, so I'm going to just run DVOA here and not also VOA:
DVOA/OFF/DEF/ST/TOT
PHI 18.4%/19.1%/-15.9%/-16.6%
LARM 62.5%/-9.6%/4.1%/76.3%
What's going on here? One issue is that there were three fumbles in the game and the Eagles recovered all three. But when I mentioned this on Twitter, people rightfully pointed out that one of those fumbles was the meaningless final play. Another was an aborted snap to Nick Foles, and that's a play that only gets a small penalty in DVOA because it's usually recovered by the offense. So the fumble recovery luck is not a big issue here.
No, the bigger issue here is the problem of measuring efficiency vs. total value. DVOA measures the former. The Eagles outgained the Rams, 455 yards to 307 yards. But the main reason behind that is that the Eagles ran 85 plays to just 45 plays for the Rams. That's a discrepancy similar to last year's Super Bowl.
The Rams were much more efficient, gaining 6.8 yards per play compared to just 5.4 yards per play for Philadelphia. The Rams were not as good on third down, but they rarely even got to third down. The Rams were 2-of-7 on third downs. The Eagles were 8-of-20. That's a better percentage, but also, wow, 20 third downs. There was also a red zone discrepancy, as the Rams scored on all four of their red zone trips while the Eagles scored on three of five.
And then there's the issue of special teams. The gap between the teams is not just about the blocked punt that the Rams returned for a touchdown. The Rams got 74 yards on four kickoff returns while the Eagles didn't return a single kickoff. However, the DVOA system does penalize the punting team more for a blocked punt than it credits the return team. That's something that needs to be fixed in the next iteration of the system.
To those questioning: at a certain point, yes, I do need to figure out what to do about these ridiculously lopsided games where one team is more efficient but runs far fewer plays. Is there some predictive value to running more plays that I should be including? It's certainly a project for the future. (And am I asking for trouble by being open and honest about the possible deficiencies of the DVOA system? Of course I am.)
But with the Rams climbing to No. 5 on offense this week, they've achived something remarkable. The Rams are currently ranked in the top five in all three phases of the game. This is remarkably rare.
Going back to 1989, there are only four other teams that ranked in the top five in all three phases any time after Week 14: the 1991 Redskins, 1992 Eagles, 1996 Packers, and 2012 Seahawks.
Expanding that to the top six in all three phases brings in more teams, but still only four teams since the year 2000. Most of them are the rival the Rams will have to face this week. The teams to rank in the top six in all three phases since 2000, any time after Week 14, are:
This doesn't mean that the Rams are one of the greatest teams in DVOA history, or that they should be considered the Super Bowl favorites. At 35.5% DVOA, the Rams are tied with the 2012 Broncos and 2007 Cowboys as the No. 19 teams DVOA has ever measured through Week 14.
And much like the 2012 Seahawks, the Rams are probably going to have to go on the road at least once in order to advance to the Super Bowl. If they lose this week, they'll probably have to go on the road three times.
Week 14 DVOA Ratings
by Aaron Schatz
This week, the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams played the best and closest of the recent DVOA Bowl games. The Eagles pulled out a 43-35 win (that was really a 37-35 win plus a meaningless touchdown returning the Rams' fumble on an end-game "zillions of laterals" attempt). So the team that wins the DVOA Bowl should be No. 1 in DVOA now, right?
Nope.
DVOA analyzes the play-by-play and cares not for the simple binary of win and loss. And when it analyzes the play-by-play for this game, it says that the way the Rams played is much more indicative of future success than the way the Eagles played. It was one of a number of close games this week where the team that lost came out with the higher DVOA rating.
Here's a look at the DVOA. Remember, both teams get big bumps from the opponent adjustments. But those bumps are similar for both teams, so I'm going to just run DVOA here and not also VOA:
DVOA/OFF/DEF/ST/TOT
PHI 18.4%/19.1%/-15.9%/-16.6%
LARM 62.5%/-9.6%/4.1%/76.3%
What's going on here? One issue is that there were three fumbles in the game and the Eagles recovered all three. But when I mentioned this on Twitter, people rightfully pointed out that one of those fumbles was the meaningless final play. Another was an aborted snap to Nick Foles, and that's a play that only gets a small penalty in DVOA because it's usually recovered by the offense. So the fumble recovery luck is not a big issue here.
No, the bigger issue here is the problem of measuring efficiency vs. total value. DVOA measures the former. The Eagles outgained the Rams, 455 yards to 307 yards. But the main reason behind that is that the Eagles ran 85 plays to just 45 plays for the Rams. That's a discrepancy similar to last year's Super Bowl.
The Rams were much more efficient, gaining 6.8 yards per play compared to just 5.4 yards per play for Philadelphia. The Rams were not as good on third down, but they rarely even got to third down. The Rams were 2-of-7 on third downs. The Eagles were 8-of-20. That's a better percentage, but also, wow, 20 third downs. There was also a red zone discrepancy, as the Rams scored on all four of their red zone trips while the Eagles scored on three of five.
And then there's the issue of special teams. The gap between the teams is not just about the blocked punt that the Rams returned for a touchdown. The Rams got 74 yards on four kickoff returns while the Eagles didn't return a single kickoff. However, the DVOA system does penalize the punting team more for a blocked punt than it credits the return team. That's something that needs to be fixed in the next iteration of the system.
To those questioning: at a certain point, yes, I do need to figure out what to do about these ridiculously lopsided games where one team is more efficient but runs far fewer plays. Is there some predictive value to running more plays that I should be including? It's certainly a project for the future. (And am I asking for trouble by being open and honest about the possible deficiencies of the DVOA system? Of course I am.)
But with the Rams climbing to No. 5 on offense this week, they've achived something remarkable. The Rams are currently ranked in the top five in all three phases of the game. This is remarkably rare.
Going back to 1989, there are only four other teams that ranked in the top five in all three phases any time after Week 14: the 1991 Redskins, 1992 Eagles, 1996 Packers, and 2012 Seahawks.
Expanding that to the top six in all three phases brings in more teams, but still only four teams since the year 2000. Most of them are the rival the Rams will have to face this week. The teams to rank in the top six in all three phases since 2000, any time after Week 14, are:
- 2012 Seahawks after Weeks 14-17
- 2013 Seahawks after Week 14
- 2015 Chiefs after Week 14
- 2015 Seahawks after Weeks 16-17
- 2017 Rams after Week 14
This doesn't mean that the Rams are one of the greatest teams in DVOA history, or that they should be considered the Super Bowl favorites. At 35.5% DVOA, the Rams are tied with the 2012 Broncos and 2007 Cowboys as the No. 19 teams DVOA has ever measured through Week 14.
And much like the 2012 Seahawks, the Rams are probably going to have to go on the road at least once in order to advance to the Super Bowl. If they lose this week, they'll probably have to go on the road three times.
