The Lamar Jackson Contract Quandary

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What do you do?

  • Keep him - whatever it takes

    Votes: 4 14.3%
  • Tag/Trade him - because what he turned down was already too high

    Votes: 13 46.4%
  • Tag/Play him - hope he plays 1yr on tag, if not trade him

    Votes: 11 39.3%

  • Total voters
    28

CGI_Ram

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The Lamar Jackson Contract Quandary - Say that 3x fast. :D

What do you do, if you are the Ravens? He is an UFA this offseason and reportedly turned down a 5yr $250M deal this past offseason looking for a fully guaranteed contract.

Week 18 he will miss his 5th straight game, missing 5 games in 2021 as well.

But… who could forget his magical 2019 season. 3,100yds passing, 1,200yds rushing, 36 TD’s against 6 INTS. Simply wow!

Do you sign him and make him among the top paid QB in the league?

Do you tag and trade him?

What do you do?


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Will the Ravens Re-Sign Lamar Jackson? Why Jackson’s Contract Must be a No-Brainer for Baltimore​

The 2023 NFL offseason is set to bring massive changes across the league. The last two offseasons saw an unprecedented number of trades take place that involved star players and quarterbacks. This year’s slate of free agents has only two clear starters at quarterback: Lamar Jackson and Geno Smith.

Jackson’s at the end of his rookie contract at only 26 years old. Let’s break down why the Baltimore Ravens should want to re-sign Jackson, where else he could end up if they trade him, and what his contract could look like.

Why Re-Signing Lamar Jackson Makes Sense for the Ravens

We’re close to entering unchartered waters with Jackson inching toward unrestricted free agency. Even if we forget he turns only 26 in January, franchise quarterbacks simply don’t hit the open market. The last time we saw a star quarterback hit the unrestricted market in his prime was Kirk Cousins in 2018.

Jackson is more accomplished than Cousins was, with five winning seasons, an All-Pro nomination, and an MVP Award in his cupboard. He’s a transformative player for any franchise he’s on because he’s one of the very few quarterbacks who can be the sole identity of the offense. What he’s accomplished with one of the bottom receiver corps since entering the league is truly remarkable.

The Ravens wouldn’t be able to replace Jackson even if they had the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Few prospects over the last decade would’ve been worth replacing Jackson with. Even if the Ravens could land a Trevor Lawrence-type, they’d still opt to franchise tag and trade him in order to gain draft picks in return.

Considering Baltimore will be a playoff team this season, they have no avenue to reasonably replace Jackson. Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley is clearly a massive downgrade in talent, and Smith will likely be back in Seattle. The Ravens have no choice but to tag or extend Jackson long-term.

Extending Jackson long-term might be concerning for the franchise considering his injury history and the value of modern quarterback contracts. Jackson has missed at least one start every season over the last three years, including five in 2021 and at least four this season. Baltimore’s unwillingness to change the offense to protect Jackson has played a part in his injury woes.

Still, Jackson is the cornerstone piece for the franchise. They could look to tag-and-trade Jackson, but they can’t let him walk for free. And plans of franchising him for consecutive years would likely end in a Cousins-like departure down the road, whereas Baltimore would be better off just getting a deal done sooner than later to protect themselves.

Teams That Could Be Interested in Lamar Jackson

There will always be interest in a franchise quarterback who is just about to hit their prime, but the reality of current contracts and cap constraints can somewhat limit interested parties. For example, of course, Denver would love to land Jackson and dump Russell Wilson, but it’s simply not possible due to the structure of Wilson’s own mega-deal. If the Ravens were to tag Jackson and make him available via trade, they’d have plenty of willing suitors.

The most obvious candidates have a blend of cap space and lack of a star quarterback in place. The Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants, Washington Commodes, New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers would surely love the chance to land Jackson. Even Houston could justify hastening their rebuilding process if they could get the dual-threat star.

It’s important to note that a franchise tag, which would be worth about $31.5 million, would allow Jackson to negotiate with potential suitors who are willing to match his contract expectations. It’s possible, but less likely a team could trade for Jackson without an extension in place and assume the risk of later consequences and expenses. All Jackson can do to keep Baltimore from accepting a better offer from a team unwilling to give his desired contract is to threaten to hold out.

Miami and New Orleans don’t have first-round picks this season. Houston, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Carolina, and Las Vegas are equipped with top-10 picks. Could Detroit or Seattle jump into the mix with two top-20 picks this year?

Anything is really possible with the right quarterback available. Watson garnered a massive trade haul with three first-round picks, and he got a fully guaranteed deal despite the horrible optics with more than 20 sexual assault claims against him. A Jackson deal would be even more prolific.

What Is Lamar Jackson’s Market Value?

Jackson, who represents himself, reportedly turned down a five-year, $250 million deal prior to the season because he wants a fully guaranteed contract. It’s no wonder why Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti scoffed at Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed deal. But it really was a matter of time until quarterbacks started pushing harder for these deals, and Cousins was the first one to get this type of locked-in contract anyway.

Knowing the guarantee is a major part of this deal, the Ravens may need to lock in the full $250 million for Jackson to accept. It’s hard to imagine he’d take much of a discount per year as a trade-off since he played this season without a long-term deal. The days of getting a slightly more team-friendly option are likely gone.

Jackson can point toward how poorly the contracts for Watson, Kyler Murray, Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers are looking just one year later and say he’ll prove to be a value like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are.

It’s still baffling why Baltimore didn’t extend Jackson earlier like both the Chiefs and Bills did, and it’ll cost the team upwards of $7 million a year for their decision. It’s reminiscent of Dallas waiting to extend Dak Prescott but actually worse since Jackson is a much better player and proved it earlier in his career.

Other Ravens Options at Quarterback

Replacing a true quarterback is nearly impossible in the short term. There are maybe 10 at any given point who can actually help a franchise have Super Bowl aspirations. Jackson is one of them and is greater enough to be his team’s offensive catalyst, making him even rarer.

The Ravens’ only choice is to take a step down from Jackson’s talent level and adopt a more traditional offense. They could receive a quarterback in a trade, such as Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, or Derek Carr, but two of those are stopgaps. There’s not an obvious young player who could interest the Ravens since Zach Wilson is looking like an all-time bust, and the Bears have found their own star in Justin Fields.

Could Baltimore take their bevy of picks, trade up in the 2023 NFL Draft, and retool around a project like Anthony Richardson or a traditional pocket passer like CJ Stroud? It’d be hard to fathom.

The Ravens have to make a decision on their identity moving forward, and that starts with how they handle Jackson’s contract situation this offseason.
 

AvengerRam

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You have to wonder if the Cardinals’ experience with Kyler Murray will influence them. Granted, Jackson is a better player, but the risks are similar.
 

Memento

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Tag and trade. There's a lot of interesting quarterbacks in this class, and getting draft picks galore for Jackson would only help the Ravens.
 

Allen2McVay

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The Lamar Jackson Contract Quandary - Say that 3x fast. :D

What do you do, if you are the Ravens? He is an UFA this offseason and reportedly turned down a 5yr $250M deal this past offseason looking for a fully guaranteed contract.

Week 18 he will miss his 5th straight game, missing 5 games in 2021 as well.

But… who could forget his magical 2019 season. 3,100yds passing, 1,200yds rushing, 36 TD’s against 6 INTS. Simply wow!

Do you sign him and make him among the top paid QB in the league?

Do you tag and trade him?

What do you do?

Lamar Jackson ... contract ... Ravens ... That's one of the best off-season, non-Rams topics in my opinion.

Lots of layers. Teams Need, Want and Greatly Value a Top-tier-QB. So tough to win without one.

Is Jackson top-tier? I vote yes. However, he is unique; and that raises more topics for consideration.

More than half the teams in the NFL would like an up-grade at QB. If you have one (I think Baltimore does) but there are warts (I also think Jackson has some); and you decide to move-on ... then finding a comparable talent can be very difficult.

The Ravens built their offense around Jackson's skill-set which is unique. That's another issue.

The guaranteed-$ is a huge issue. In the recent past, QBs have gotten huge contracts that have been between 60%-75% guaranteed. Then Deshaun Watson says 'No Thanks' to Cleveland; and the Browns respond 'What if we fully guarantee your contract'; and Watson replies 'I hear Cleveland is a lovely place to play football'.

Fuck Jimmy Haslam!


So now every team lucky enough to have a top-tier-QB may need to entertain the % in guaranteed-$. I'm fascinated by what Burrow and Herbert will demand. I'm guessing less than 100% but more than 75%; and NFL owners respond, with a united 'Fuck Jimmy Haslam!'

For me one of the most relevant points of discussion on Lamar Jackson is durability. Quarterbacks will get hit. Mobile, running QBs will get hit more. Almost all will eventually be injured. And, most will decline if they can not adjust their playing-style to run less frequently and aggressively.

I believe even a monster like Josh Allen will eventually be injured; and, if in the future, opposing defenses can play Allen with a lesser concern about him running, his status will decline to some degree.

Have not even gotten into the impact a long-term, big-$ contract would have on the rest of the Ravens' roster.

The NFL is So Much FUN.
 

majrleaged

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I don't know what the Ravens have for a backup QB, but I might let Jackson check the market after I gave him good offer. Not sure anybody would give him the guarantee he wants and Tagging him would really weigh down the cap. I mean, what is it? The average of the top 5 QBs. That is a huge hit.
 

Merlin

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Been saying this for years. Been saying it about Jackson. As great a runner as he is, and he is great without a doubt in that regard, he's a marginal as fuck QB. Slow in his reads. Misses shit routinely. Watching that offense is painful except for when he's on his game in which case he's amazing. But there is no way in hell you pay for that. Not if you're a capable GM.

Every year in the draft there are QBs who can run read option well but who will struggle in the NFL adjusting to the intelligence level of defensive units. So if you are a GM who has Greg Roman running your offense draft a young read option QB every couple years and don't pay any of them. Treat them like RBs where you ride the horse that's hot.

If they pay Jackson they're gonna regret it.
 

dieterbrock

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IIRC, Jackson doesnt have an agent, which normally I think is awesome. In his case though, it could be problematic. He's got a good thing going on there in Baltimore and he should be working on getting the best deal he can from them. He's just not that valuable in another system. I had previously thought Tyler Huntley could progress in that system and take over if Jackson left, but he has regressed significantly this year.
 

OldSchool

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While not a huge fan of Jackson even if you take the best of the QB's this year it's still a gamble and there's work to do getting the most out of a rookie QB. I honestly don't trust Roman to do that either so if I were a Ravens fan a rookie QB would have to come with an upgrade at OC.
 

Allen2McVay

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I don't know what the Ravens have for a backup QB, but I might let Jackson check the market after I gave him good offer. Not sure anybody would give him the guarantee he wants and Tagging him would really weigh down the cap. I mean, what is it? The average of the top 5 QBs. That is a huge hit.
Tyler Huntley has played a lot the past two seasons, including last year's Rams game.

He's a decent back-up ... and young ... but far from a Lamar Jackson talent-level in my opinion.

Similar playing-style and skill-set (lesser of course) to Jackson. That goes to my point above that the Ravens tailored their offense around Lamar Jackson's unique skill set.
 

BonifayRam

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His contract demands ...demands a smart NFL Org to trade him to a Texans low-tier team.

Have NFL fans seen what has happened in Green Bay, Denver, AZ & Cleveland...........after signing those humungous QB contracts.
 

Fatboy

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Tag him and ck his attitude ! If it dosen't work out try and trade him.
Don't mortgage your future on a maybe ! jmho --- the Fatboy.
 

Ram65

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How can they guarantee $250+M are a running QB?

Unlike the Rams, the Ravens don't appear to be too top-heavy on high-cap players for 2023 with a good bump in 2024. If they can limit the guaranteed money go ahead a resign him. I don't what that number is but, they have to try. If not a trade deal would be the option. The NFL QB conundrum is crazy. There is no easy answer here.

 

Tano

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Lamar Jackson ... contract ... Ravens ... That's one of the best off-season, non-Rams topics in my opinion.

Lots of layers. Teams Need, Want and Greatly Value a Top-tier-QB. So tough to win without one.

Is Jackson top-tier? I vote yes. However, he is unique; and that raises more topics for consideration.

More than half the teams in the NFL would like an up-grade at QB. If you have one (I think Baltimore does) but there are warts (I also think Jackson has some); and you decide to move-on ... then finding a comparable talent can be very difficult.

The Ravens built their offense around Jackson's skill-set which is unique. That's another issue.

The guaranteed-$ is a huge issue. In the recent past, QBs have gotten huge contracts that have been between 60%-75% guaranteed. Then Deshaun Watson says 'No Thanks' to Cleveland; and the Browns respond 'What if we fully guarantee your contract'; and Watson replies 'I hear Cleveland is a lovely place to play football'.

Fuck Jimmy Haslam!


So now every team lucky enough to have a top-tier-QB may need to entertain the % in guaranteed-$. I'm fascinated by what Burrow and Herbert will demand. I'm guessing less than 100% but more than 75%; and NFL owners respond, with a united 'Fuck Jimmy Haslam!'

For me one of the most relevant points of discussion on Lamar Jackson is durability. Quarterbacks will get hit. Mobile, running QBs will get hit more. Almost all will eventually be injured. And, most will decline if they can not adjust their playing-style to run less frequently and aggressively.

I believe even a monster like Josh Allen will eventually be injured; and, if in the future, opposing defenses can play Allen with a lesser concern about him running, his status will decline to some degree.

Have not even gotten into the impact a long-term, big-$ contract would have on the rest of the Ravens' roster.

The NFL is So Much FUN.
Lamar Jackson is too specialized a QB and is one and done in the playoffs every year but 1

And now he is injury prone which will take away his most important ability.

I would not sign him.
 

Gandalf

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Tag him and check his value league wide. If you can get a good haul, trade him and get top tier QB via the draft. There would be a good amount of cap saved to fortify the rest of the team.
 
Last edited:

BuffaloRam

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Really tough one - is quite dynamic as a running QB but doesn’t seem to be able to stay healthy (even when he doesn’t miss a game). I’d tag him and see what happens
 

Giles

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No way do I give him a fully guaranteed contract. He simply can't stay healthy and without his legs he's average at best. I would tag and trade him to the highest bidder.