- Joined
- Jun 28, 2010
- Messages
- 48,283
- Name
- Burger man
New England vs. Minnesota Prediction: Patriots and Vikings Wrap Up Thanksgiving Tripleheader
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings Thursday night game, with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
athlonsports.com
New England vs. Minnesota: Patriots and Vikings Wrap Up Thanksgiving Tripleheader
Thanksgiving Day's football action will wrap up at night with an exciting "Thursday Night Football" matchup between the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings. Although both teams are in playoff position, they each have much to prove before the postseason.The Vikings may be 8-2, but last week threw their title chances into serious doubt with a stunning 40-3 loss to the Cowboys. It dropped their point differential to negative — the first time that's ever happened for a team with at least eight wins at this point — and left many to wonder whether this Kirk Cousins-led team has just benefitted from a soft schedule and good luck.
The New England, meanwhile, is riding a three-game winning streak and has won five of six, although it too has played a soft schedule. The Pats' offense has been lackluster, but it's hard to deny a defense that has held consecutive opponents to just three points and is only allowing 16.9 points per game (second in the NFL).
With so many question marks surrounding both teams, Thursday night's game could provide plenty of insight into their respective playoff hopes. Are Cousins or Mac Jones dynamic enough to lead their teams on a deep playoff run? At a minimum, this single game can provide a measuring stick.
Thanksgiving Day: New England (6-4) at Minnesota (8-2)
Kickoff: Thursday, Nov. 24 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Vikings -3
Tickets: As low as $107 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. Will prime-time Kirk Cousins show up?
It's well-established at this point that Cousins has struggled under the lights. Despite holding a 67-61-2 record overall, he's just 10-18 in night games, including a 3-5 record on Thursdays with especially short rest. His passer rating has also taken a hit at night (93.9) compared to his overall mark (97.5).
To be fair, some of that has to do with the quality of opponents. Over his 11 NFL seasons, Washington and Minnesota have tended to be paired against better teams in prime time. But it also underlines the challenges of trying to win a big game with a physically limited passer.
Cousins had his worst game of the season in the Vikings' lone night game to date — 27-of-46 passing for 221 yards with three interceptions and a touchdown in a 24-7 Week 2 loss to the Eagles. Minnesota can't withstand that many turnovers, but it will also need much more efficient passing in general. He has averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt in wins and just 4.7 in losses this season.
Putting up big numbers against this Patriots defense will be a challenge, though. New England ranks fourth in the league in passing yards allowed per game (188.3), net yards allowed per attempt (5.2), and interceptions (11). They've also allowed a combined 87 passing yards in the last two games. Despite the departure of J.C. Jackson, this secondary remains dangerous, especially with the emergence of fourth-round rookie Jack Jones, who has the second-highest PFF grade among cornerbacks this season.
2. Can the Patriots limit turnover opportunities?
The Patriots' quarterback controversy is over — for now. Mac Jones has held down the fort since returning as the full-time starter in Week 8, with a 72.8 percent completion rate and just one interception over the last three games. Of course, the downside is he has only thrown for 587 yards and two touchdowns during that stretch.
While the defense has dominated, Jones has really limited his downfield passing. During his first four games, his intended air yards per attempt never dropped below 9.3. In his last three games, it's never been higher than 4.9.
Depending on accumulating yards after the catch can be risky generally, but it has been a good strategy against the Vikings this season. Minnesota has allowed 129.2 YAC per game, the fifth most in the league. So look for quick, short passes from the Pats on Sunday.
Limiting the number of turnover-worthy plays also be key since the Vikings have one of the most ball-hawking defenses in the league. Before last week's loss, they had at least one takeaway in every game and are tied for third overall with 18 takeaways (10 interceptions).
3. How will offensive injuries affect each team?
While their outcomes could hardly have been more different last week, both teams suffered big losses with injuries to key offensive linemen. Vikings left tackle Christian Darrisaw exited with a concussion and has already been ruled out for Thursday's game, while Patriots center David Andrews surprisingly practiced Tuesday after suffering a thigh injury.
It's hard to understate how devastating the Darrisaw injury was last week. The Cowboys were able to pressure Cousins on a season-high 40 percent of dropbacks despite only blitzing four times. New England isn't quite Dallas, but it does rank second in pressure rate (29.8 percent) and blitzes a tad less than Dallas (28.0 percent vs. 28.3 percent). It's easy to see Matthew Judon doing a Micah Parsons impersonation.
As for New England, Andrews remains doubtful to play and would be a big loss, especially if Isaiah Wynn (who left last week's game with a foot injury) also can't go. The Patriots have had trouble running the ball lately — 690 yards in the first five games, 464 in the last five — and will be facing a Vikings defense that is 14th in yards per carry allowed (4.4) and ninth in adjusted line yards (4.14). The one silver lining for them is that Minnesota is still without defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson and has given up 154.3 rushing yards per game during his three-game absence.
Final Analysis
It's clear that the Vikings are not as good as their record would indicate, and facing a Bill Belichick-coached team on short rest is generally not a recipe for success. Minnesota has a clear path to victory by forcing turnovers, but a conservative offensive game plan from New England may take that out of the Vikings' hands. There's only so much Justin Jefferson can do, especially when Cousins will be constantly under pressure by the Patriots and yet another national spotlight.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Vikings 17
