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AP Photo/Johnny VyThere's an argument to be made for the Texans taking Jadeveon Clowney first overall.
The short walk from Lucas Oil Stadium to the players' hotel at the NFL scouting combine earlier this week provided a good opportunity to ask an NFL general manager what he thought of the quarterbacks available in the 2014 draft.
"It's a hard group to figure out," the GM said. "You've got teams at the top who probably feel they need to take a shot on a quarterback, but this group has a lot of 'miss' factors."
There's no consensus that Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel or Blake Bortles will develop into franchise quarterbacks. Greater ambivalence applies for the other highly rated QBs, Derek Carrand Jimmy Garoppolo among them. When I asked personnel evaluators at the combine for their read on Manziel in particular, opinions were all over the map. One said the Texas A&M phenom scared him. Another said his team would be scared to face Manziel.
Some said this current crop of quarterbacks reminded them of the 2011 class. Six of the first 12 teams in the order needed quarterbacks that year. Tennessee, Jacksonville and Minnesota reached for shakier prospects between the eighth and 12th choices. All three teams got burned, unless Jake Locker rights his career in Tennessee. Arizona and San Francisco also needed quarterbacks that year. Instead of reaching for one, the Cardinals took Patrick Petersonfifth and the 49ers took Aldon Smith seventh. Neither player filled the QB void, but both became Pro Bowl-caliber contributors in short order.
A look at some of the other non-QBs taken early in that draft drives home warnings about drafting the position over the player. Von Miller, A.J. Green, Tyron Smith, J.J. Watt and Robert Quinn became dominant players.
This year, at least six of the first eight teams on the clock are looking for a long-term starting quarterback. Each must decide whether any of the highest-rated QBs is worth an early selection in a draft widely considered to be one of the strongest in memory -- at other positions, anyway. The Houston Texans get first crack, and that is where we'll begin our run through three leading draft dilemmas facing teams coming out of the combine.
1. Should the Texans take a QB with the first pick?
Consider this hypothetical: Would you rather have a near-certain shot at $500 or a 50 percent chance at $3,000? Without getting too hung up on the exact percentages and dollar figures, that is what the quarterback dilemma can feel like in this draft, given the absence of a sure-thing QB prospect. The seemingly surer bets in this draft -- take offensive tackles Greg Robinson or Jake Matthews, for instance, or near-consensus top defensive prospects Jadeveon Clowney or Khalil Mack -- will never approach in value what a productive quarterback can offer. But even the disappointing first-round tackle tends to hang around and start for years. Levi Brown and Robert Gallery are two high-profile examples. Disappointing quarterbacks are much more likely to drag down a coaching staff and set back a franchise.
Selecting a quarterback first overall isn't nearly as costly from a financial standpoint as it was under the previous labor agreement, but if the Texans take one here, new coach Bill O'Brien will be declaring his hand at the position. He'll need to win with the quarterback he selects, especially after team owner Bob McNair made it clear he feels as though the Texans are in position to contend quickly. It's not a decision to take lightly.
Six of the 21 head coaches hired between 2010 and 2013 joined teams that christened their new coaching eras by selecting quarterbacks in the first round. Indy and Chuck Pagano landedAndrew Luck first overall in 2012. Carolina and Ron Rivera took Cam Newton first overall in 2011. Both QBs were consensus No. 1 overall selections. Both have generally succeeded, even without strong supporting casts. The four other first-year coaches in question worked for teams that "took shots" on riskier prospects.
Leslie Frazier and Mike Munchak lost their jobs in part because the QBs their teams gambled on -- Christian Ponder in Minnesota and Locker in Tennessee -- did not produce as hoped. Doug Marrone and Buffalo need vastly improved play from 2013 first-rounder EJ Manuel this season. Joe Philbin and Miami need a lot of things, including improvement from 2012 first-rounder Ryan Tannehill.
Will O'Brien feel good enough about any of the QBs in this draft to bet his future on one of them? "They have to take a quarterback, right?" one GM said. Yes, they do, but not necessarily at the top of the draft.
The Texans can come at this selection a couple of ways. They can target a quarterback under the thinking that they'll need a good one to overtake Luck and the Colts in the AFC South. Or, they could use the first pick on Clowney, also with Luck in mind. Going that route would allow the Texans to field a defensive line featuring Clowney and Watt, the better to harass Luck and compete in the division. Luck tossed five touchdown passes with just one interception in two victories against the Texans last season.
2. Should the St. Louis Rams trade back from No. 2?
No matter your view on Rams quarterback Sam Bradford, the team is committed to him for 2014, at least. GM Les Snead pointed out from the combine that Bradford has a 5-2-1 record against NFC West opponents since Jeff Fisher arrived as head coach. The Rams' commitment to Bradford makes them one of two teams selecting among the top eight with a clearly defined starting quarterback already on the roster. Atlanta, with the sixth overall choice, is the other team focusing exclusively on other positions.
Both the Rams and Falcons are in prime position to benefit if the other teams picking early overdraft quarterbacks. If the Texans take a quarterback first, the Rams could feel great about taking Clowney second. It might seem like overkill for a team already possessing first-rounders Quinn, Chris Long and Michael Brockers on its defensive line, but in making this decision, I think the Rams should select the player their NFC West rivals hope they avoid. Will the rest of the division recoil at the thought of St. Louis adding a tackle or receiver? A little bit, perhaps, but not as much as they would if the Rams added Clowney to a defense that has collected a league-high 105 sacks over the past two seasons -- 20 more than any other team in the NFL's most rugged defensive division.
The Rams face a tougher dilemma if the Texans select Clowney ahead of them. They could select Auburn tackle Greg Robinson or Clemson receiver Sammy Watkins, but they've already got a starting left tackle in Jake Long, and this draft is loaded with so many good receivers that Snead said the 15th one selected might wind up starting. Fisher and Snead could try to trade out of the No. 2 slot, hoping to attract a team eager to jump past Jacksonville, which holds the third pick and could be targeting a quarterback. But if this draft is as deep as analysts think it is, why trade up at the expense of additional selections?
3. Should the Tampa Bay Buccaneers target a QB?
Four teams needing quarterbacks are scheduled to select before Tampa Bay is on the clock with the seventh overall selection. The Texans, Jaguars, Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders need one. So do the Vikings, who pick eighth. All must decide how much positional value should factor into the equation.
If the Buccaneers think incumbent Mike Glennon is good enough to start, they can focus on landing a tackle, defensive end or receiver in the first round. Going that route will be even easier if Bortles, Manziel and Bridgewater disappear from the board before Tampa Bay selects.
I'm not sure if Glennon is the answer for the long term, but I do think the Buccaneers can win with him. The poise he showed while staking Tampa Bay to a 21-0 lead at Seattle sticks in my mind. So many other established quarterbacks have failed to generate any traction in that environment. And given that the top quarterbacks carry question marks, there's a good chance none of them will be clearly better than Glennon, particularly early on.
Locker, Ponder and fellow 2011 first-round reach Blaine Gabbert have combined for a 73.8 passer rating and 37.3 Total QBR score, with 27 victories and 52 defeats in 79 career starts. That doesn't mean the 2014 class will fare similarly, but when GMs see parallels between the two QB classes from a risk standpoint, warnings seem appropriate.
AP Photo/Johnny VyThere's an argument to be made for the Texans taking Jadeveon Clowney first overall.
The short walk from Lucas Oil Stadium to the players' hotel at the NFL scouting combine earlier this week provided a good opportunity to ask an NFL general manager what he thought of the quarterbacks available in the 2014 draft.
"It's a hard group to figure out," the GM said. "You've got teams at the top who probably feel they need to take a shot on a quarterback, but this group has a lot of 'miss' factors."
There's no consensus that Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel or Blake Bortles will develop into franchise quarterbacks. Greater ambivalence applies for the other highly rated QBs, Derek Carrand Jimmy Garoppolo among them. When I asked personnel evaluators at the combine for their read on Manziel in particular, opinions were all over the map. One said the Texas A&M phenom scared him. Another said his team would be scared to face Manziel.
Some said this current crop of quarterbacks reminded them of the 2011 class. Six of the first 12 teams in the order needed quarterbacks that year. Tennessee, Jacksonville and Minnesota reached for shakier prospects between the eighth and 12th choices. All three teams got burned, unless Jake Locker rights his career in Tennessee. Arizona and San Francisco also needed quarterbacks that year. Instead of reaching for one, the Cardinals took Patrick Petersonfifth and the 49ers took Aldon Smith seventh. Neither player filled the QB void, but both became Pro Bowl-caliber contributors in short order.
A look at some of the other non-QBs taken early in that draft drives home warnings about drafting the position over the player. Von Miller, A.J. Green, Tyron Smith, J.J. Watt and Robert Quinn became dominant players.
This year, at least six of the first eight teams on the clock are looking for a long-term starting quarterback. Each must decide whether any of the highest-rated QBs is worth an early selection in a draft widely considered to be one of the strongest in memory -- at other positions, anyway. The Houston Texans get first crack, and that is where we'll begin our run through three leading draft dilemmas facing teams coming out of the combine.
1. Should the Texans take a QB with the first pick?
Consider this hypothetical: Would you rather have a near-certain shot at $500 or a 50 percent chance at $3,000? Without getting too hung up on the exact percentages and dollar figures, that is what the quarterback dilemma can feel like in this draft, given the absence of a sure-thing QB prospect. The seemingly surer bets in this draft -- take offensive tackles Greg Robinson or Jake Matthews, for instance, or near-consensus top defensive prospects Jadeveon Clowney or Khalil Mack -- will never approach in value what a productive quarterback can offer. But even the disappointing first-round tackle tends to hang around and start for years. Levi Brown and Robert Gallery are two high-profile examples. Disappointing quarterbacks are much more likely to drag down a coaching staff and set back a franchise.
Selecting a quarterback first overall isn't nearly as costly from a financial standpoint as it was under the previous labor agreement, but if the Texans take one here, new coach Bill O'Brien will be declaring his hand at the position. He'll need to win with the quarterback he selects, especially after team owner Bob McNair made it clear he feels as though the Texans are in position to contend quickly. It's not a decision to take lightly.
Six of the 21 head coaches hired between 2010 and 2013 joined teams that christened their new coaching eras by selecting quarterbacks in the first round. Indy and Chuck Pagano landedAndrew Luck first overall in 2012. Carolina and Ron Rivera took Cam Newton first overall in 2011. Both QBs were consensus No. 1 overall selections. Both have generally succeeded, even without strong supporting casts. The four other first-year coaches in question worked for teams that "took shots" on riskier prospects.
Leslie Frazier and Mike Munchak lost their jobs in part because the QBs their teams gambled on -- Christian Ponder in Minnesota and Locker in Tennessee -- did not produce as hoped. Doug Marrone and Buffalo need vastly improved play from 2013 first-rounder EJ Manuel this season. Joe Philbin and Miami need a lot of things, including improvement from 2012 first-rounder Ryan Tannehill.
Will O'Brien feel good enough about any of the QBs in this draft to bet his future on one of them? "They have to take a quarterback, right?" one GM said. Yes, they do, but not necessarily at the top of the draft.
The Texans can come at this selection a couple of ways. They can target a quarterback under the thinking that they'll need a good one to overtake Luck and the Colts in the AFC South. Or, they could use the first pick on Clowney, also with Luck in mind. Going that route would allow the Texans to field a defensive line featuring Clowney and Watt, the better to harass Luck and compete in the division. Luck tossed five touchdown passes with just one interception in two victories against the Texans last season.
2. Should the St. Louis Rams trade back from No. 2?
No matter your view on Rams quarterback Sam Bradford, the team is committed to him for 2014, at least. GM Les Snead pointed out from the combine that Bradford has a 5-2-1 record against NFC West opponents since Jeff Fisher arrived as head coach. The Rams' commitment to Bradford makes them one of two teams selecting among the top eight with a clearly defined starting quarterback already on the roster. Atlanta, with the sixth overall choice, is the other team focusing exclusively on other positions.
Both the Rams and Falcons are in prime position to benefit if the other teams picking early overdraft quarterbacks. If the Texans take a quarterback first, the Rams could feel great about taking Clowney second. It might seem like overkill for a team already possessing first-rounders Quinn, Chris Long and Michael Brockers on its defensive line, but in making this decision, I think the Rams should select the player their NFC West rivals hope they avoid. Will the rest of the division recoil at the thought of St. Louis adding a tackle or receiver? A little bit, perhaps, but not as much as they would if the Rams added Clowney to a defense that has collected a league-high 105 sacks over the past two seasons -- 20 more than any other team in the NFL's most rugged defensive division.
The Rams face a tougher dilemma if the Texans select Clowney ahead of them. They could select Auburn tackle Greg Robinson or Clemson receiver Sammy Watkins, but they've already got a starting left tackle in Jake Long, and this draft is loaded with so many good receivers that Snead said the 15th one selected might wind up starting. Fisher and Snead could try to trade out of the No. 2 slot, hoping to attract a team eager to jump past Jacksonville, which holds the third pick and could be targeting a quarterback. But if this draft is as deep as analysts think it is, why trade up at the expense of additional selections?
3. Should the Tampa Bay Buccaneers target a QB?
Four teams needing quarterbacks are scheduled to select before Tampa Bay is on the clock with the seventh overall selection. The Texans, Jaguars, Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders need one. So do the Vikings, who pick eighth. All must decide how much positional value should factor into the equation.
If the Buccaneers think incumbent Mike Glennon is good enough to start, they can focus on landing a tackle, defensive end or receiver in the first round. Going that route will be even easier if Bortles, Manziel and Bridgewater disappear from the board before Tampa Bay selects.
I'm not sure if Glennon is the answer for the long term, but I do think the Buccaneers can win with him. The poise he showed while staking Tampa Bay to a 21-0 lead at Seattle sticks in my mind. So many other established quarterbacks have failed to generate any traction in that environment. And given that the top quarterbacks carry question marks, there's a good chance none of them will be clearly better than Glennon, particularly early on.
Locker, Ponder and fellow 2011 first-round reach Blaine Gabbert have combined for a 73.8 passer rating and 37.3 Total QBR score, with 27 victories and 52 defeats in 79 career starts. That doesn't mean the 2014 class will fare similarly, but when GMs see parallels between the two QB classes from a risk standpoint, warnings seem appropriate.
