Statistical Forecast of #LARams 2020 Passing Attack

[OnceARam]

QB1 - In GOFF We Trust

Cmp%	CMP	ATT	YDS	Y/A	TD	INT	TD/INT	RAT
65.5%	382	583	4,602	7.89	30	15	2.06	96.3

OF - SKILLs To Pay The Bills

	Rec	Tgt*	Yds	Y/R*	TD*	Ctch%*
Woods	98	150	1,365	14	7	65%
Kupp	105	150	1,260	12	11	70
Reynolds	25	50	375	15	1	50
Jefferson	18	33	218	12	1	55
Higbee	70	100	700	10	4	70
Everett	24	40	264	11	2	60
Akers	42	60	420	10	4	70

The 2020 Rams offense represents both an evolution of McVay's scheming prowess (outside and inside zone runs) with a throwback element of... the screen game, replacing an over-reliance on play action.

• The offense of the Rams will incorporate a lot of moving pieces but ultimately comes down to feeding Woods, Kupp and Higbee.
• Akers will be utilized extensively in the screen game.
• Jefferson, although talented, will not play a significant role in this offense in his rookie year (barring injury to Kupp/Woods).
• Higbeast will force defenses to man the middle of the field, opening the boundaries. His numbers are conservative, representing statistical upside.
• Everett will play a gadget type role, making contributions in the red zone and TE screens.
• Reynolds, although experienced, will play a "jump-ball" type role in hopes that safeties stay honest. This role is not un-similar to Cooks 2019.
• I see a divergence in how Woods and Kupp will be used due to the departure of Cooks, as reflected in the Yards-Per-Reception (Y/R) and Catch Percentage (Ctch%) differences. Although, McVay will look to balance their Targets (Tgt) overall.
• Goff could potentially throw another 20-40 balls. If so, his numbers will get WORSE, not better.

Notes:

(In terms of the RUN game: I expect Akers to have +200 carries at 4.5 per. / Brown ~50 carries at 4.0 per / Henderson does not translate to the NFL game, sorry.)​

​

(Goff's numbers were backed into based on the assumed production of the skilled players. The 2/1, TD/Int ratio, is conservative, representing a potential upside in passer rating and WIN percentage.) ​

P.S. I will answer constructive criticism or requests for alternate scenarios.

Let's Go Rams!

 

[PressureD41]

I worry if 12P gets enough plays Kupp's # will be a lot less, as he comes out of the 12P sets. MsVay loves Reynolds in the 12P formation, he's a very good blocker and gives them a deep threat in that formation so I see his numbers a tad better despite his high drop ball count. I still see Jefferson getting some better numbers and he never drops balls period. Akers at 4 TD just seems low to me. I see him getting 7-10 TDs.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

QB1 - In GOFF We Trust

Cmp%	CMP	ATT	YDS	Y/A	TD	INT	TD/INT	RAT
65.5%	382	583	4,602	7.89	30	15	2.06	96.3

OF - SKILLs To Pay The Bills

	Rec	Tgt*	Yds	Y/R*	TD*	Ctch%*
Woods	98	150	1,365	14	7	65%
Kupp	105	150	1,260	12	11	70
Reynolds	25	50	375	15	1	50
Jefferson	18	33	218	12	1	55
Higbee	70	100	700	10	4	70
Everett	24	40	264	11	2	60
Akers	42	60	420	10	4	70

The 2020 Rams offense represents both an evolution of McVay's scheming prowess (outside and inside zone runs) with a throwback element of... the screen game, replacing an over-reliance on play action.

• The offense of the Rams will incorporate a lot of moving pieces but ultimately comes down to feeding Woods, Kupp and Higbee.
• Akers will be utilized extensively in the screen game.
• Jefferson, although talented, will not play a significant role in this offense in his rookie year (barring injury to Kupp/Woods).
• Higbeast will force defenses to man the middle of the field, opening the boundaries. His numbers are conservative, representing statistical upside.
• Everett will play a gadget type role, making contributions in the red zone and TE screens.
• Reynolds, although experienced, will play a "jump-ball" type role in hopes that safeties stay honest. This role is not un-similar to Cooks 2019.
• I see a divergence in how Woods and Kupp will be used due to the departure of Cooks, as reflected in the Yards-Per-Reception (Y/R) and Catch Percentage (Ctch%) differences. Although, McVay will look to balance their Targets (Tgt) overall.
• Goff could potentially throw another 20-40 balls. If so, his numbers will get WORSE, not better.

Notes:

(In terms of the RUN game: I expect Akers to have +200 carries at 4.5 per. / Brown ~50 carries at 4.0 per / Henderson does not translate to the NFL game, sorry.)​

​

(Goff's numbers were backed into based on the assumed production of the skilled players. The 2/1, TD/Int ratio, is conservative, representing a potential upside in passer rating and WIN percentage.) ​

P.S. I will answer constructive criticism or requests for alternate scenarios.

Let's Go Rams!

Just curious. Are you guessing that the Rams will heavily rely on the screen game and not so much on play action?

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

18 receptions for Van Jefferson?

18?

Gonna disagree here

 

[OnceARam]

Just curious. Are you guessing that the Rams will heavily rely on the screen game and not so much on play action?

It's all a guess, and maybe some wish too.

 

[OnceARam]

18 receptions for Van Jefferson?

18?

Gonna disagree here

Yeah, it looks bad. But who's he gonna take catches away from? There are only so many plays and he is a rookie. I only see him being featured if someone more experienced goes down.

 

[OnceARam]

I worry if 12P gets enough plays Kupp's # will be a lot less, as he comes out of the 12P sets. MsVay loves Reynolds in the 12P formation, he's a very good blocker and gives them a deep threat in that formation so I see his numbers a tad better despite his high drop ball count. I still see Jefferson getting some better numbers and he never drops balls period. Akers at 4 TD just seems low to me. I see him getting 7-10 TDs.

That's a good point. I just can't see Kupp coming off the field though, unless he's hurt. I really only see Reynolds on the filed when there in a 3WR set. With the departure of Cooks, Kupp has to evolve beyond a slot WR if this offense is going to succeed.

 

[RamFan503]

I'm going to think Van and Reynolds numbers are flip flopped at minimum.

McVay doesn't seem to mind playing rooks on offense so I'm going to guess at least 500 for VJ.

I think Akers receiving numbers will be a bit lower.

The rest looks about right. Of course I'm just going on hunches. But I don't think they feed either Everett or Reynolds unless they work out a deal or they're priming them for trades.

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

When we were clicking Gurley was catching a lot of balls, subtracted from TE passes. I’d love to see that dimension back with Akers, and he has the skills.....

 

[OnceARam]

When we were clicking Gurley was catching a lot of balls, subtracted from TE passes. I’d love to see that dimension back with Akers, and he has the skills.....

Exactly. Akers numbers are extrapolated from Gurley 2017-2018 in a McVay offense. Although, at a more modest yards-per-catch assumption, because Akers isn't an Olympic level 200 m hurdler.