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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction: Familiar Week 1 Foes Kick Off Sunday Night Football Slate
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys Sunday night game, with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
For the second straight season, the Buccaneers and Cowboys will open their season against each other in prime time.One year and two days after Tampa Bay escaped with a 31-29 home victory on the NFL's opening night, this budding rivalry will shift to Dallas for a "Sunday Night Football" showdown.
Looming over this game has been Tom Brady's extended absence this fall. After briefly retiring in February, the 45-year-old missed 11 days of camp and only appeared in one preseason game. And Tampa Bay can't afford to have a slow start with games at New Orleans and at home against the Packers and Chiefs following this one.
Dallas has plenty of pressure to win too, especially head coach Mike McCarthy, who has perhaps the hottest seat in the league. The Cowboys have not made it past the Divisional Round since 1995, but the expectations are to do so at some point in Dak Prescott's four-year, $160 million contract.
So, can the Bucs win a second straight season-opener against the Cowboys? Or will the home underdogs pull an upset in front of the new SNF booth of Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth?
Sunday Night Football: Tampa Bay (0-0) at Dallas (0-0)
Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 11 at 8:20 pm. ET
TV: NBC
Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
Three Things to Watch
1. Will Tom Brady be fully up to speed?
The Buccaneers open the season with the highest Super Bowl odds in the NFC, and that all rides on the idea that Brady will keep up his elite production at age 45. While quarterbacks like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees faded quickly at the end of their careers, Brady led the league with 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns last season.
Father Time may be undefeated, but Brady is testing that theory as he pushes into unprecedented territory.
The question becomes whether his extended preseason absence will catch up with him. Brady has plenty of weapons — Tampa swapped out Antonio Brown for Russell Gage and Julio Jones — but his offensive line has taken a hit. Guards Ali Marpet (retired) and Alex Cappa (Bengals) are gone, and center Ryan Jensen is out with a knee injury. Brady has always been good about getting the ball out quickly, but that will be even more important if the line is not up to expectations.
The Cowboys' defense could cause problems if Brady is not as sharp as normal. They ranked seventh in scoring defense last year despite finishing 19th in total defense, largely thanks to turnovers. Dallas led the league with 26 interceptions (11 of which came from Trevon Diggs), although their ball-hawking style led to a lot of big plays allowed.
2. Can the Cowboys' patchwork offensive line hold up?
Tampa Bay isn't the only team with issues on the line. The Cowboys have also been dealing with major injuries and departures. What was once one of the best units in the league looks questionable at best and could sink Dallas' playoff hopes.
Losing La'el Collins and Connor Williams was tough but manageable when they had Tyron Smith, but the All-Pro left tackle will miss several months with a preseason hamstring/knee injury. Dallas spent a first-rounder on his potential replacement in Tyler Smith, but the Tulsa product, who was the most penalized lineman in college football last year, may not be up to that task yet.
Keeping Dak Prescott upright will be crucial, especially after the quarterback landed on the injury report with soreness in his surgically repaired right ankle. For what it's worth, Prescott said he felt uncomfortable wearing a new style of cleats. But whatever the cause, the Cowboys will only go as far as a healthy Prescott can take them.
3. Is the elite Ezekiel Elliott still there?
Once teams invest a high pick and major contract into a player, it can be hard for them to move on. Whether it’s hard-headedness or something else, teams don’t always play their best players. But could the Cowboys be right that Elliott still has another gear left in him?
In each of his three NFL seasons, Tony Pollard has out-performed Elliott on a rate basis. Yes, it's easier to rack up big plays with fewer touches and hits, but it has many wondering if the fourth-rounder Pollard is a better choice at this point than the former No. 4 overall (2016) pick.
With just $11.9 million in dead cap after this season, this may be Elliott's last chance to prove that he's still an elite back worth big money. And, to be fair, there are valid excuses why his yards per carry average has dipped into the low fours recently.
The Cowboys had a decimated offensive line in 2020, and he didn't quite look the same after testing positive for COVID. Then in 2021, he played through knee and ankle injuries. But at some point, there are only so many excuses, and recurring injuries become expected.
The Bucs should present a tough challenge for Elliott (and Pollard) on Sunday night. They ranked third in rush defense last season, although that was partially due to opponents running on them a league-low 366 times. Still, a defense that ranked fifth in adjusted line yards (3.73) will be a great early-season test for what the former All-Pro has left in him.
Final Analysis
Both teams are immensely talented but have serious questions along their lines. This game will illuminate a lot about how easily each team can overcome those limitations. It's dangerous to bet on a road favorite with questions about rust at quarterback, but the Bucs should have just enough to come out on top.
Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Cowboys 27
