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http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/play...ard-sherman-beaten-denver-broncos-offense-nfl
Richard Sherman has made plenty of big plays this season, but he can still be thrown on.
The most compelling matchup in Super Bowl XLVIII is the Seattle Seahawks' Legion of Boom secondary versus the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos offense that set an NFL record forpoints scored in a single season.
This is considered to be a battle of strength versus strength, but the reality of the situation is the Seahawks defense has a number of potential weak spots that the Broncos offense could be able to target with success.
What is most surprising is Richard Sherman is among those players Denver should be able to target.
Sherman earned a spot on the 2013 All-Pro team due mostly to his league-leading eight interceptions, but like a lot of ballhawks, Sherman isn't a shutdown cornerback in coverage.
His 6.7 yards per attempt figure is a step above the 7.5 YPA mark that serves as the general metric midpoint in that category but is a step below the 6.0 YPA mark that is the point of demarcation for excellence. This is not a one-year anomaly for Sherman, as his 7.4 YPA in 2012 indicates.
Sherman's YPA is higher than those posted by fellow Seahawks cornerbacks Byron Maxwell(5.0) and Walter Thurmond (5.3), so from a YPA perspective, he is the Seattle cornerback to target.
Part of the reason for this is that Sherman is somewhat willing to give up short pass completions. His 6.7 YPA at that depth level is a below-average figure (5.6 YPA is the league average for cornerbacks), and his 75 percent completion rate allowed is nothing to brag about (league average is roughly 65 percent).
Sherman also gives up 6.8 YPA on throws directed at him in one-on-one coverage, so it isn't as if an offense has to avoid him entirely.
The potential problem for Denver if it decides to test this idea is Sherman's ability to outfight a wide receiver for a pass. Three of his picks came on plays where Sherman simply outmuscled the receiver for the ball, and he is just as adept at overpowering a pass-catcher and then tipping the pigskin to a teammate for an interception -- as he did at the end of the NFC Championship Game and late in the Week 15 game against the New York Giants.
There is an idea that someone of the physical stature of Demaryius Thomas (6-foot-3, 229 pounds) will be able to prevent that from occurring, but Washington Redskins cornerbackDeAngelo Hall, who is 5-10 and 193 pounds, racked up two picks against Thomas in Week 8 in part by outfighting him for the ball. Sherman doesn't weigh much more than Hall (195 pounds), but he is taller (6-3) and has a reputation for being much more aggressive in coverage, so the Broncos will have to choose their spots if they decide to test Sherman.
Another potential coverage target for Denver is Seattle dime cornerback Jeremy Lane. He is one of the best punt-team gunners in the NFL, but his 8.7 overall YPA was lowlighted by a 14.3 YPA on six vertical passes (those thrown 11 or more yards downfield). The Broncos don't normally use Andre Caldwell, as ESPN Stats & Information has him credited with only 30 targets during the regular season and three in the postseason, but this type of potential matchup favorability could motivate the Broncos to use four-wide receiver sets more often in this game.
Seattle's aggressive tendencies can also work against it in coverage. The Seahawks had blown coverages on 12 plays this season, and at least three of them occurred because a Seattle defender was doing some sort of freelancing in an effort to make a big play. That type of thing works well against many quarterbacks, but it is a tendency to be avoided when facing a play-calling intellectual of the caliber of Manning.
The odd part about Seattle's tendency for freelancing is it didn't pay off in the form of a high bad decision rate. BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the defense. Seattle's 1.8 percent mark in this category is dramatically lower than its 3.9 percent BDR that led the NFL in 2012.
Pass coverage isn't the only thing this platoon has to worry about, as Denver has rushed for 124 or more yards in five of its past eight games. The Broncos have the type of power rushing attack that can move the ball against a Seahawks defense that has seen its share of issues versus strong rushing offenses. If Seattle directs too much attention to the aerial portion of the ballgame, the Broncos rushing game could prove to be a highly effective counterpunch.
Having noted all of this, all isn't lost if Denver does move the ball with success. It will just mean the Seahawks offense will need to compensate. Denver is 11-0 this season when opposing teams score fewer than 27 points and is 4-3 when the opponent scores 27 or more points. Seattle has the ability to post that kind of point total, as it scored 27 or more points nine times this season -- but it has done so only once in its past six games. The way things have been going for Russell Wilson & Co., it may take a defensive score to reach this point total, which puts Seattle's defense right back into the spotlight.
The Hawks D has been dominant in many ways this season, but to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, it may have to play even better.
Richard Sherman has made plenty of big plays this season, but he can still be thrown on.
The most compelling matchup in Super Bowl XLVIII is the Seattle Seahawks' Legion of Boom secondary versus the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos offense that set an NFL record forpoints scored in a single season.
This is considered to be a battle of strength versus strength, but the reality of the situation is the Seahawks defense has a number of potential weak spots that the Broncos offense could be able to target with success.
What is most surprising is Richard Sherman is among those players Denver should be able to target.
Sherman earned a spot on the 2013 All-Pro team due mostly to his league-leading eight interceptions, but like a lot of ballhawks, Sherman isn't a shutdown cornerback in coverage.
His 6.7 yards per attempt figure is a step above the 7.5 YPA mark that serves as the general metric midpoint in that category but is a step below the 6.0 YPA mark that is the point of demarcation for excellence. This is not a one-year anomaly for Sherman, as his 7.4 YPA in 2012 indicates.
Sherman's YPA is higher than those posted by fellow Seahawks cornerbacks Byron Maxwell(5.0) and Walter Thurmond (5.3), so from a YPA perspective, he is the Seattle cornerback to target.
Part of the reason for this is that Sherman is somewhat willing to give up short pass completions. His 6.7 YPA at that depth level is a below-average figure (5.6 YPA is the league average for cornerbacks), and his 75 percent completion rate allowed is nothing to brag about (league average is roughly 65 percent).
Sherman also gives up 6.8 YPA on throws directed at him in one-on-one coverage, so it isn't as if an offense has to avoid him entirely.
The potential problem for Denver if it decides to test this idea is Sherman's ability to outfight a wide receiver for a pass. Three of his picks came on plays where Sherman simply outmuscled the receiver for the ball, and he is just as adept at overpowering a pass-catcher and then tipping the pigskin to a teammate for an interception -- as he did at the end of the NFC Championship Game and late in the Week 15 game against the New York Giants.
There is an idea that someone of the physical stature of Demaryius Thomas (6-foot-3, 229 pounds) will be able to prevent that from occurring, but Washington Redskins cornerbackDeAngelo Hall, who is 5-10 and 193 pounds, racked up two picks against Thomas in Week 8 in part by outfighting him for the ball. Sherman doesn't weigh much more than Hall (195 pounds), but he is taller (6-3) and has a reputation for being much more aggressive in coverage, so the Broncos will have to choose their spots if they decide to test Sherman.
Another potential coverage target for Denver is Seattle dime cornerback Jeremy Lane. He is one of the best punt-team gunners in the NFL, but his 8.7 overall YPA was lowlighted by a 14.3 YPA on six vertical passes (those thrown 11 or more yards downfield). The Broncos don't normally use Andre Caldwell, as ESPN Stats & Information has him credited with only 30 targets during the regular season and three in the postseason, but this type of potential matchup favorability could motivate the Broncos to use four-wide receiver sets more often in this game.
Seattle's aggressive tendencies can also work against it in coverage. The Seahawks had blown coverages on 12 plays this season, and at least three of them occurred because a Seattle defender was doing some sort of freelancing in an effort to make a big play. That type of thing works well against many quarterbacks, but it is a tendency to be avoided when facing a play-calling intellectual of the caliber of Manning.
The odd part about Seattle's tendency for freelancing is it didn't pay off in the form of a high bad decision rate. BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the defense. Seattle's 1.8 percent mark in this category is dramatically lower than its 3.9 percent BDR that led the NFL in 2012.
Pass coverage isn't the only thing this platoon has to worry about, as Denver has rushed for 124 or more yards in five of its past eight games. The Broncos have the type of power rushing attack that can move the ball against a Seahawks defense that has seen its share of issues versus strong rushing offenses. If Seattle directs too much attention to the aerial portion of the ballgame, the Broncos rushing game could prove to be a highly effective counterpunch.
Having noted all of this, all isn't lost if Denver does move the ball with success. It will just mean the Seahawks offense will need to compensate. Denver is 11-0 this season when opposing teams score fewer than 27 points and is 4-3 when the opponent scores 27 or more points. Seattle has the ability to post that kind of point total, as it scored 27 or more points nine times this season -- but it has done so only once in its past six games. The way things have been going for Russell Wilson & Co., it may take a defensive score to reach this point total, which puts Seattle's defense right back into the spotlight.
The Hawks D has been dominant in many ways this season, but to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, it may have to play even better.
