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After watching film of both teams, Scouts Inc. breaks down key elements of the NFC Championship Game between the 49ers and Falcons. The AFC Championship Game preview is here.
• Don't let Kaepernick win this game with his legs: Colin Kaepernick ran for 181 yards in San Francisco's convincing victory over Green Bay in the divisional round. He averaged 13.1 yards per rushing attempt, often out of the pistol, which has become a more and more prevalent formation for this offense. To keep Kaepernick bottled up on scrambles, Green Bay went to more of a "mush rush" philosophy in the second half. That worked well on designed pass plays, but Kaepernick was still deadly on read option calls and designed quarterback runs. But of course, Kaepernick is not the only rushing threat for the 49ers. Frank Gore ran for 119 yards in the divisional round, and San Francisco is one of the most diverse running games in the league. The 49ers are very difficult to prepare for -- now more than ever with Kaepernick at quarterback. Atlanta's run defense is a problem area, but it did hold Marshawn Lynch to 46 yards on 16 carries last week and has defended the run much better at home. Still, mobile quarterbacks give the Falcons fits. As it has been throughout the season, tackling for the Falcons was a huge problem against Seattle last week, and no offense in the league can wear down a defense like San Francisco's can.
• Atlanta's receiving corps: Although the Falcons are not really deep with weapons, their top three -- Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Julio Jones -- are about as good as it gets in the league right now. There isn't a glaring weakness among San Francisco's cover men for Matt Ryan to exploit, but these three Falcons have a clear advantage one-on-one against any single member of the 49ers' secondary. The Falcons are sure to utilize 11 personnel (1 RB/1 TE) a high percentage of the time, which the 49ers will likely counter with their nickel package. Gonzalez, White and Jones need to combine for a big outing this week. They are surely capable.
• Keep an eye on Crabtree: Michael Crabtree has clearly emerged as Kaepernick's favorite target. A powerful runner with the ball in his hands, Crabtree is great after the catch and has recently incorporated more of a vertical threat to his repertoire. Although he has been very quiet since Kaepernick took over at quarterback, TE Vernon Davis has great speed and can cause major problems downfield on seam routes. Seattle's Zach Miller gave the Atlanta defense fits last week and the middle of the field was open for much of that game, often off play-action. In fact, the Falcons' coverage overall last week left a lot to be desired.
• Home QB: After an exceptional 2012 campaign, Ryan won his first playoff game last week. A pocket passer with a very strong command of the Falcons' offense, Ryan has also become quite adept at running the no-huddle, which is something San Francisco must be prepared for. The Niners' love playing Cover 2 man, which is man coverage on the five offensive skill positions with two deep safeties. It isn't fancy, but San Francisco is exceptional with the execution and it rarely blitzed Aaron Rodgers last week, as usual. Ryan handles the blitz well and threw deep more frequently last week than he usually does, but against San Francisco, patience might be his best virtue.
• Away QB: Of course, Kaepernick's superb running exploits stood out for the nation to see last week, but he is also an extremely dangerous passer with a huge, accurate arm. The Niners racked up a whopping 579 yards of total offense, and Kaepernick made some big-time throws from the pocket, as he has in every game since becoming the starter. Although the Falcons have some good spy options for Kaepernick in Sean Weatherspoon, Stephen Nicholas and William Moore, Seattle QB Russell Wilson lit this defense up for 385 yards through the air and another 60 on the ground.
• Key positional battle -- Falcons' RBs vs. 49ers' LBs: Atlanta has struggled with its run blocking much of the season, and Michael Turner isn't what he once was, but Turner showed some fresh legs last week and the Falcons' timely run calls netted 167 rushing yards behind some very good blocking up front. Jacquizz Rodgers will see plenty of snaps and brings much more electricity to this running attack, along with skills as a receiver. Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman make up the best set of inside linebackers in the NFL. They are every-down players who more or less excel at every aspect of playing the position. But the 49ers' run defense fell off dramatically as the regular season went along. Willis and Bowman will have to be wary of biting on play-action, which Ryan now sells very well.
• Featured player: 49ers DT Justin Smith is playing with partially torn triceps muscles, but he missed very few snaps last week. He didn't stand out as an impact player, but this defense is a far better unit when he is on the field. Aldon Smith benefits from Smith's presence a great deal, and he and Ahmad Brooks give the 49ers a very threatening edge pass-rush presence. The 49ers harassed Rodgers quite a bit last week, but they sacked him only once, and Ryan wasn't sacked by Seattle last week. This will be a tougher test for the Falcons' protection, though.
• Film room nuggets: Not only does San Francisco feature a huge, physical offensive line, but its skill position players are great downfield blockers, which helps Kaepernick and others break off long runs. Actually, both teams feature quality run-blockers in this area, especially at wide receiver. ... Kaepernick was sacked just once last week on his 31 drop backs even though it was clear that Joe Staley's arm injury was hindering him. It will be loud in the dome, which aids Atlanta's pass rush, namely John Abraham. But Abraham, Atlanta's best pass-rusher, injured an ankle last week and his status is uncertain. Getting to Kaepernick could be a big problem for the Falcons, and because of his running skills, blitzing Kaepernick is a dangerous proposition.
Prediction:
49'ers 27
Falcons 20
After watching film of both teams, Scouts Inc. breaks down key elements of the NFC Championship Game between the 49ers and Falcons. The AFC Championship Game preview is here.
• Don't let Kaepernick win this game with his legs: Colin Kaepernick ran for 181 yards in San Francisco's convincing victory over Green Bay in the divisional round. He averaged 13.1 yards per rushing attempt, often out of the pistol, which has become a more and more prevalent formation for this offense. To keep Kaepernick bottled up on scrambles, Green Bay went to more of a "mush rush" philosophy in the second half. That worked well on designed pass plays, but Kaepernick was still deadly on read option calls and designed quarterback runs. But of course, Kaepernick is not the only rushing threat for the 49ers. Frank Gore ran for 119 yards in the divisional round, and San Francisco is one of the most diverse running games in the league. The 49ers are very difficult to prepare for -- now more than ever with Kaepernick at quarterback. Atlanta's run defense is a problem area, but it did hold Marshawn Lynch to 46 yards on 16 carries last week and has defended the run much better at home. Still, mobile quarterbacks give the Falcons fits. As it has been throughout the season, tackling for the Falcons was a huge problem against Seattle last week, and no offense in the league can wear down a defense like San Francisco's can.
• Atlanta's receiving corps: Although the Falcons are not really deep with weapons, their top three -- Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Julio Jones -- are about as good as it gets in the league right now. There isn't a glaring weakness among San Francisco's cover men for Matt Ryan to exploit, but these three Falcons have a clear advantage one-on-one against any single member of the 49ers' secondary. The Falcons are sure to utilize 11 personnel (1 RB/1 TE) a high percentage of the time, which the 49ers will likely counter with their nickel package. Gonzalez, White and Jones need to combine for a big outing this week. They are surely capable.
• Keep an eye on Crabtree: Michael Crabtree has clearly emerged as Kaepernick's favorite target. A powerful runner with the ball in his hands, Crabtree is great after the catch and has recently incorporated more of a vertical threat to his repertoire. Although he has been very quiet since Kaepernick took over at quarterback, TE Vernon Davis has great speed and can cause major problems downfield on seam routes. Seattle's Zach Miller gave the Atlanta defense fits last week and the middle of the field was open for much of that game, often off play-action. In fact, the Falcons' coverage overall last week left a lot to be desired.
• Home QB: After an exceptional 2012 campaign, Ryan won his first playoff game last week. A pocket passer with a very strong command of the Falcons' offense, Ryan has also become quite adept at running the no-huddle, which is something San Francisco must be prepared for. The Niners' love playing Cover 2 man, which is man coverage on the five offensive skill positions with two deep safeties. It isn't fancy, but San Francisco is exceptional with the execution and it rarely blitzed Aaron Rodgers last week, as usual. Ryan handles the blitz well and threw deep more frequently last week than he usually does, but against San Francisco, patience might be his best virtue.
• Away QB: Of course, Kaepernick's superb running exploits stood out for the nation to see last week, but he is also an extremely dangerous passer with a huge, accurate arm. The Niners racked up a whopping 579 yards of total offense, and Kaepernick made some big-time throws from the pocket, as he has in every game since becoming the starter. Although the Falcons have some good spy options for Kaepernick in Sean Weatherspoon, Stephen Nicholas and William Moore, Seattle QB Russell Wilson lit this defense up for 385 yards through the air and another 60 on the ground.
• Key positional battle -- Falcons' RBs vs. 49ers' LBs: Atlanta has struggled with its run blocking much of the season, and Michael Turner isn't what he once was, but Turner showed some fresh legs last week and the Falcons' timely run calls netted 167 rushing yards behind some very good blocking up front. Jacquizz Rodgers will see plenty of snaps and brings much more electricity to this running attack, along with skills as a receiver. Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman make up the best set of inside linebackers in the NFL. They are every-down players who more or less excel at every aspect of playing the position. But the 49ers' run defense fell off dramatically as the regular season went along. Willis and Bowman will have to be wary of biting on play-action, which Ryan now sells very well.
• Featured player: 49ers DT Justin Smith is playing with partially torn triceps muscles, but he missed very few snaps last week. He didn't stand out as an impact player, but this defense is a far better unit when he is on the field. Aldon Smith benefits from Smith's presence a great deal, and he and Ahmad Brooks give the 49ers a very threatening edge pass-rush presence. The 49ers harassed Rodgers quite a bit last week, but they sacked him only once, and Ryan wasn't sacked by Seattle last week. This will be a tougher test for the Falcons' protection, though.
• Film room nuggets: Not only does San Francisco feature a huge, physical offensive line, but its skill position players are great downfield blockers, which helps Kaepernick and others break off long runs. Actually, both teams feature quality run-blockers in this area, especially at wide receiver. ... Kaepernick was sacked just once last week on his 31 drop backs even though it was clear that Joe Staley's arm injury was hindering him. It will be loud in the dome, which aids Atlanta's pass rush, namely John Abraham. But Abraham, Atlanta's best pass-rusher, injured an ankle last week and his status is uncertain. Getting to Kaepernick could be a big problem for the Falcons, and because of his running skills, blitzing Kaepernick is a dangerous proposition.
Prediction:
49'ers 27
Falcons 20
