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SATURDAY'S GAMES
Texans (9-4) at Jets (4-9): 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Point spread: HOU -6 | Matchup quality: 26.8 (of 100)
Sarah Barshop's pick: Even after the Texans fell short against the Colts in Week 14 and failed to continue a nine-game winning streak, it's hard to pick against them this week. Houston's running backs struggled against Indianapolis, but the Texans should be able to get back to the success they had during the streak against this 27th-ranked run defense, which is allowing an average of 132 rushing yards per game. Texans 24, Jets 13
Rich Cimini's pick: There is no compelling reason to pick the Jets. They're 0-4 against teams that entered the game with a winning record, the worst mark in the league. They've lost those games by an average of 15 points. Rookie QB Sam Darnold won't have his leading rusher (Isaiah Crowell) and his leading receiver (Quincy Enunwa), which means plenty of three-and-outs against J.J. Watt & Co. Texans 31, Jets
What's at stake: The Texans can clinch the AFC South with a win and losses by both the Colts and Titans. Short of that, there are eight scenarios in which the Texans can at least secure a playoff berth. The simplest: a win, and losses by either the Dolphins or Ravens. A win by the Jets could drop them out of the top five of the 2019 draft order. (FPI currently projects them at No. 4.) -- Seifert
FPI win projection: HOU, 69.2 percent. Houston is a big favorite on the road to take a step toward the postseason, projected to win 69 percent of the time by FPI. A major reason is that the Texans rank second in the NFL in defensive efficiency this season, while the Jets rank second worst in offensive efficiency.
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Browns (5-7-1) at Broncos (6-7): 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Point spread: DEN -3 | Matchup quality: 41.1 (of 100)
Pat McManamon's pick: The key to dealing with Denver is stopping the pass rush of defensive end Bradley Chubb and linebacker Von Miller. They have combined for 25.5 sacks. The Browns' offensive line, though, has given up just one sack in the past three games, in part because Baker Mayfield is so adept at feeling and avoiding the rush. Mayfield is playing at such a high level that it's hard to go against him. Browns 27, Broncos 20
Jeff Legwold's pick: The Broncos have had their share of struggles this season, but they have been a different team at home.This one is really about their mindset and how much vocational fuel they have left in the tank after a crushing loss to the 49ers last weekend. They have wafer-thin playoff hopes, but playing without cornerback Chris Harris Jr. against Mayfield will be an enormous challenge. If Chubb and Miller finish with at least four combined sacks in this one, however, things will have gone the Broncos' way. The Browns haven't won in Denver since 1990. Broncos 27, Browns 21
What's at stake: Incredibly, given the start to their season, the Browns have not yet been eliminated from playoff contention. But they have five teams to leapfrog if it's going to happen. The Broncos have "only" four. -- Seifert
FPI win projection: DEN, 77.1 percent. The Browns have been a top-five offense in terms of efficiency, according to FPI, since changing coaches after Week 8. But they face a tough test this week against a Broncos team that ranks second in opponent Total QBR this season (52.5).
Texans (9-4) at Jets (4-9): 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Point spread: HOU -6 | Matchup quality: 26.8 (of 100)
Sarah Barshop's pick: Even after the Texans fell short against the Colts in Week 14 and failed to continue a nine-game winning streak, it's hard to pick against them this week. Houston's running backs struggled against Indianapolis, but the Texans should be able to get back to the success they had during the streak against this 27th-ranked run defense, which is allowing an average of 132 rushing yards per game. Texans 24, Jets 13
Rich Cimini's pick: There is no compelling reason to pick the Jets. They're 0-4 against teams that entered the game with a winning record, the worst mark in the league. They've lost those games by an average of 15 points. Rookie QB Sam Darnold won't have his leading rusher (Isaiah Crowell) and his leading receiver (Quincy Enunwa), which means plenty of three-and-outs against J.J. Watt & Co. Texans 31, Jets
What's at stake: The Texans can clinch the AFC South with a win and losses by both the Colts and Titans. Short of that, there are eight scenarios in which the Texans can at least secure a playoff berth. The simplest: a win, and losses by either the Dolphins or Ravens. A win by the Jets could drop them out of the top five of the 2019 draft order. (FPI currently projects them at No. 4.) -- Seifert
FPI win projection: HOU, 69.2 percent. Houston is a big favorite on the road to take a step toward the postseason, projected to win 69 percent of the time by FPI. A major reason is that the Texans rank second in the NFL in defensive efficiency this season, while the Jets rank second worst in offensive efficiency.
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Browns (5-7-1) at Broncos (6-7): 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Point spread: DEN -3 | Matchup quality: 41.1 (of 100)
Pat McManamon's pick: The key to dealing with Denver is stopping the pass rush of defensive end Bradley Chubb and linebacker Von Miller. They have combined for 25.5 sacks. The Browns' offensive line, though, has given up just one sack in the past three games, in part because Baker Mayfield is so adept at feeling and avoiding the rush. Mayfield is playing at such a high level that it's hard to go against him. Browns 27, Broncos 20
Jeff Legwold's pick: The Broncos have had their share of struggles this season, but they have been a different team at home.This one is really about their mindset and how much vocational fuel they have left in the tank after a crushing loss to the 49ers last weekend. They have wafer-thin playoff hopes, but playing without cornerback Chris Harris Jr. against Mayfield will be an enormous challenge. If Chubb and Miller finish with at least four combined sacks in this one, however, things will have gone the Broncos' way. The Browns haven't won in Denver since 1990. Broncos 27, Browns 21
What's at stake: Incredibly, given the start to their season, the Browns have not yet been eliminated from playoff contention. But they have five teams to leapfrog if it's going to happen. The Broncos have "only" four. -- Seifert
FPI win projection: DEN, 77.1 percent. The Browns have been a top-five offense in terms of efficiency, according to FPI, since changing coaches after Week 8. But they face a tough test this week against a Broncos team that ranks second in opponent Total QBR this season (52.5).
