Sam Bradford, Eagles Agree To Two-Year Contract
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Ram65
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I think they are committed to 2 years barring injury. Iggles have lots of needs. Could trade down first round pick and get back second rounder and draft QB after round 1. They need offensive OL, CB and WR off the top of my head.
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Just saying that QB s still in play. Will they draft one? Dont know. Had they signed him to a 4,5 year deal QB would have been off the board though
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I get your point a 4 year SB deal would eliminate it completely.
I'm thinking it's not likely in round 1 with no round 2 pick and lot's of needs.
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I don't have ESPN INsider anymore, so someone may have to finish off this article.
Pretty astounding stats to me.
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The recent upheaval in the Philadelphia Eagles' front office and on the coaching staff means it's time for the organization to decide whom they want to keep andwhom they want to let go. The toughest of these decisions for Howie Roseman & Co. will be on quarterback Sam Bradford.
Given the Eagles' reported interest in reacquiring Nick Foles, it seems that the pendulum is swinging away from retaining Bradford.
That is somewhat understandable given Bradford's salary demands, but there is a strong case to be made that the Eagles should go all-out to keep Bradford, even at a high price.
Bradford is an elite vertical passer
Cam Newton and Russell Wilson both made strong MVP cases during the second half of the 2015 season, but they could not keep up with Bradford in terms of yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes (throws of 11 or more yards downfield). In fact, no one in the league matched Bradford's 15.1 vertical YPA pace from Weeks 9 through 17.
That Bradford did this with a less-than-stellar pass-catching corps is notable, but it isn't an anomaly. In the 2013 season, Bradford ranked sixth in the league in vertical YPA (12.5) despite throwing to a mediocre receiving corps consisting of Tavon Austin, Austin Pettis, Chris Givens, Brian Quick, Jared Cook andLance Kendricks. He is one of a small handful of quarterbacks capable of getting excellent downfield production out of subpar receiving.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/stor...ephia-eagles-need-re-sign-qb-sam-bradford-nfl
Pretty astounding stats to me.
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The recent upheaval in the Philadelphia Eagles' front office and on the coaching staff means it's time for the organization to decide whom they want to keep andwhom they want to let go. The toughest of these decisions for Howie Roseman & Co. will be on quarterback Sam Bradford.
Given the Eagles' reported interest in reacquiring Nick Foles, it seems that the pendulum is swinging away from retaining Bradford.
That is somewhat understandable given Bradford's salary demands, but there is a strong case to be made that the Eagles should go all-out to keep Bradford, even at a high price.
Bradford is an elite vertical passer
Cam Newton and Russell Wilson both made strong MVP cases during the second half of the 2015 season, but they could not keep up with Bradford in terms of yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes (throws of 11 or more yards downfield). In fact, no one in the league matched Bradford's 15.1 vertical YPA pace from Weeks 9 through 17.
That Bradford did this with a less-than-stellar pass-catching corps is notable, but it isn't an anomaly. In the 2013 season, Bradford ranked sixth in the league in vertical YPA (12.5) despite throwing to a mediocre receiving corps consisting of Tavon Austin, Austin Pettis, Chris Givens, Brian Quick, Jared Cook andLance Kendricks. He is one of a small handful of quarterbacks capable of getting excellent downfield production out of subpar receiving.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/stor...ephia-eagles-need-re-sign-qb-sam-bradford-nfl
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Here is an article that outlines why this will be the hump year for Bradford. Interesting rationale.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...an-win-with-doug-pederson-just-ask-alex-smith
Sam Bradford can win with Doug Pederson -- just ask Alex Smith
For all those wondering what the Philadelphia Eagles see in quarterback Sam Bradford, don't be surprised if this becomes his year of redemption. He's finally back in a system that works well with his skill set. His new head coach knows a thing or two about mentoring beleaguered signal callers.
In other words, if it can't work for Bradford this season, it clearly never will.
The financial commitment Philly made to Bradford earlier this week wasn't earth-shattering in today's quarterback market -- a two-year deal worth $36 million, with $22 million guaranteed at signing -- but it didn't have to be. The Eagles just had to do enough to let Bradford know they still have some faith in him. The rest is on Bradford. It's up to him to make the most of an opportunity he's surely been waiting years to find.
Anybody who's followed Bradford's first six years in the NFL knows he looked extremely comfortable in the same West Coast offense that first-year head coach Doug Pederson is installing this offseason. Anybody who's followed Pederson realizes that he built a productive relationship in Kansas City with Alex Smith, another quarterback who had plenty to prove after injuries, inconsistency and an assortment of coaching changes plagued his career. There's no question Bradford remains a work in progress after an underwhelming season with Chip Kelly. There's also little doubt that judging him off 2015 isn't entirely fair.
The 28-year-old Bradford earned the right to remain in Philadelphia by how he performed in his final seven games of last season, after his completion percentage rose (from 62 percent through October, to 68.2 over the remainder) and he threw more touchdowns (10) than interceptions (four). When asked why he believes Bradford can be that same quarterback for an entire season, Pederson said, "You can look at it from an Xs-and-Os standpoint. You also can talk to people that have been around Sam Bradford and understand where he's come, as far as his development as a quarterback. The fact that he put himself in a leadership role toward the end of the season proves to me that he can handle this role and the opportunity to start."
"My main objective was to be back in Philadelphia," said Bradford, who helped Philadelphia go 7-7 in his 14 starts. "It just happened on a two-year deal, and that's perfectly fine with me. I would've preferred a 100-year deal, if they wanted to give it to me. I just wanted to get back in Philadelphia. My agent felt like it was a great deal for both sides. I think the organization felt the same way. As long as I continue to play the way I know I can, it shouldn't really matter."
The best thing Bradford has going for him is Pederson. The head coach wasn't the sexiest pick to replace Kelly -- nor was he even the predictable choice -- but he has learned plenty from working with Andy Reid, both in Philadelphia and Kansas City. What Pederson realizes is that most coaches don't have the good fortune of being blessed with a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. The successful ones make the most of the less-gifted signal callers they actually end up having to coach.
Just as Reid and Pederson found ways to maximize Smith's talents in Kansas City, Pederson's staff can do the same for Bradford. This is still a quarterback who was promising enough to be the first overall pick in the 2010 draft, a prospect that one former general manager called "as accurate as any quarterback who's ever come out of college." Bradford didn't regress because he was overrated. He has struggled because he's been a victim of several bad breaks.
The obvious issues have been health-related. He sustained torn anterior cruciate ligaments in both the 2013 and 2014 seasons -- and that would be enough to stunt anybody's development. Bradford also was never a great fit for Kelly's fast-paced offense. That experiment looked disastrous from the moment we saw defenders launching themselves at Bradford as he carried out his read-option fakes in the preseason.
Pederson still has to prove he can win as a head coach, but does have intimate knowledge of the quarterback position (he spent most of his 12-year NFL career as a backup with four different teams). He should be able to see what didn't work for Bradford, why it didn't work and where the quarterback needs to go from here. As Eaglesexecutive vice president of football operations Howie Roseman said, "One of the benefits we have as a staff is having Doug, who played the position, having [offensive coordinator Frank Reich], who played the position, having [quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo], who played the position, and having their input into the evaluation process, as well, and how they see [Bradford] fitting their system."
The other benefit for Bradford is the offense Pederson wants to run. Bradford won the 2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award because he started his career in the West Coast offense. He's always looked most effective when distributing the ball quickly and allowing his receivers to run after the catch. There were West Coast elements in the offense he ran as a Heisman Trophy winner at Oklahoma. It's also proven to be the system that most fits a quarterback who's often been lauded for his smarts and his accuracy.
Unfortunately for Bradford, he found himself lost in the same abyss that sometimes claims talented, young quarterbacks. The Rams hired Josh McDaniels to run their offense in Bradford's second year. They turned to Brian Schottenheimer as their offensive coordinator in 2012, once the franchise decided to replace head coach Steve Spagnuolo with Jeff Fisher. Bradford wound up playing a total of 23 games over the next three seasons before being dealt to Philadelphia last offseason.
That last paragraph is enough evidence to give Bradford one more benefit of the doubt. Smith had three head coaches and seven offensive coordinators with the San Francisco 49ers. It wasn't until the arrival of head coach Jim Harbaugh in 2011 that Smith's troubled career turned for the better (aside from a somewhat-promising year with offensive coordinator Norv Turner in Smith's second season with the 49ers). Bradford has experienced more individual success in his first six seasons than Smith did in the same span, so it's not hard to imagine a similar mid-career rise.
This isn't to say there weren't troubling issues in Philadelphia last year. It's just that the entire team was filled with problems that had nothing to do with Bradford. Kelly's offense is built on its breakneck pace, meaning the quarterback doesn't have much time to read defenses or audible. Bradford is reputed as a quarterback who can win with his mind and his decision making, which is exactly what he'll do in a more traditional system.
The contract the Eagles gave Bradford might be mystifying to some because, on the surface, it sounds like they overpaid for an underwhelming product. The reality is that Philadelphia, like every other team in the NFL, understands how hard it is to find even a serviceablequarterback in this league. It's the same reason why Smith found a chance to redeem himself and a journeyman quarterback named Ryan Fitzpatricknearly led the New York Jets to the playoffs. Results can change quickly when certain players are put into better situations.
Bradford has found that opportunity for a new life in Philadelphia. The contract raised more than a few eyebrows and there will be skeptics who'll want to see the Eagles consider other options. But that doesn't mean Bradford is doomed to more struggles. If anything, the Eagles might be realizing that there's still plenty to like about their quarterback's long-term future.
Follow Jeffri Chadiha on Twitter @jeffrichadiha.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...an-win-with-doug-pederson-just-ask-alex-smith
Sam Bradford can win with Doug Pederson -- just ask Alex Smith
For all those wondering what the Philadelphia Eagles see in quarterback Sam Bradford, don't be surprised if this becomes his year of redemption. He's finally back in a system that works well with his skill set. His new head coach knows a thing or two about mentoring beleaguered signal callers.
In other words, if it can't work for Bradford this season, it clearly never will.
The financial commitment Philly made to Bradford earlier this week wasn't earth-shattering in today's quarterback market -- a two-year deal worth $36 million, with $22 million guaranteed at signing -- but it didn't have to be. The Eagles just had to do enough to let Bradford know they still have some faith in him. The rest is on Bradford. It's up to him to make the most of an opportunity he's surely been waiting years to find.
Anybody who's followed Bradford's first six years in the NFL knows he looked extremely comfortable in the same West Coast offense that first-year head coach Doug Pederson is installing this offseason. Anybody who's followed Pederson realizes that he built a productive relationship in Kansas City with Alex Smith, another quarterback who had plenty to prove after injuries, inconsistency and an assortment of coaching changes plagued his career. There's no question Bradford remains a work in progress after an underwhelming season with Chip Kelly. There's also little doubt that judging him off 2015 isn't entirely fair.
The 28-year-old Bradford earned the right to remain in Philadelphia by how he performed in his final seven games of last season, after his completion percentage rose (from 62 percent through October, to 68.2 over the remainder) and he threw more touchdowns (10) than interceptions (four). When asked why he believes Bradford can be that same quarterback for an entire season, Pederson said, "You can look at it from an Xs-and-Os standpoint. You also can talk to people that have been around Sam Bradford and understand where he's come, as far as his development as a quarterback. The fact that he put himself in a leadership role toward the end of the season proves to me that he can handle this role and the opportunity to start."
"My main objective was to be back in Philadelphia," said Bradford, who helped Philadelphia go 7-7 in his 14 starts. "It just happened on a two-year deal, and that's perfectly fine with me. I would've preferred a 100-year deal, if they wanted to give it to me. I just wanted to get back in Philadelphia. My agent felt like it was a great deal for both sides. I think the organization felt the same way. As long as I continue to play the way I know I can, it shouldn't really matter."
The best thing Bradford has going for him is Pederson. The head coach wasn't the sexiest pick to replace Kelly -- nor was he even the predictable choice -- but he has learned plenty from working with Andy Reid, both in Philadelphia and Kansas City. What Pederson realizes is that most coaches don't have the good fortune of being blessed with a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. The successful ones make the most of the less-gifted signal callers they actually end up having to coach.
Just as Reid and Pederson found ways to maximize Smith's talents in Kansas City, Pederson's staff can do the same for Bradford. This is still a quarterback who was promising enough to be the first overall pick in the 2010 draft, a prospect that one former general manager called "as accurate as any quarterback who's ever come out of college." Bradford didn't regress because he was overrated. He has struggled because he's been a victim of several bad breaks.
The obvious issues have been health-related. He sustained torn anterior cruciate ligaments in both the 2013 and 2014 seasons -- and that would be enough to stunt anybody's development. Bradford also was never a great fit for Kelly's fast-paced offense. That experiment looked disastrous from the moment we saw defenders launching themselves at Bradford as he carried out his read-option fakes in the preseason.
Pederson still has to prove he can win as a head coach, but does have intimate knowledge of the quarterback position (he spent most of his 12-year NFL career as a backup with four different teams). He should be able to see what didn't work for Bradford, why it didn't work and where the quarterback needs to go from here. As Eaglesexecutive vice president of football operations Howie Roseman said, "One of the benefits we have as a staff is having Doug, who played the position, having [offensive coordinator Frank Reich], who played the position, having [quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo], who played the position, and having their input into the evaluation process, as well, and how they see [Bradford] fitting their system."
The other benefit for Bradford is the offense Pederson wants to run. Bradford won the 2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award because he started his career in the West Coast offense. He's always looked most effective when distributing the ball quickly and allowing his receivers to run after the catch. There were West Coast elements in the offense he ran as a Heisman Trophy winner at Oklahoma. It's also proven to be the system that most fits a quarterback who's often been lauded for his smarts and his accuracy.
Unfortunately for Bradford, he found himself lost in the same abyss that sometimes claims talented, young quarterbacks. The Rams hired Josh McDaniels to run their offense in Bradford's second year. They turned to Brian Schottenheimer as their offensive coordinator in 2012, once the franchise decided to replace head coach Steve Spagnuolo with Jeff Fisher. Bradford wound up playing a total of 23 games over the next three seasons before being dealt to Philadelphia last offseason.
That last paragraph is enough evidence to give Bradford one more benefit of the doubt. Smith had three head coaches and seven offensive coordinators with the San Francisco 49ers. It wasn't until the arrival of head coach Jim Harbaugh in 2011 that Smith's troubled career turned for the better (aside from a somewhat-promising year with offensive coordinator Norv Turner in Smith's second season with the 49ers). Bradford has experienced more individual success in his first six seasons than Smith did in the same span, so it's not hard to imagine a similar mid-career rise.
This isn't to say there weren't troubling issues in Philadelphia last year. It's just that the entire team was filled with problems that had nothing to do with Bradford. Kelly's offense is built on its breakneck pace, meaning the quarterback doesn't have much time to read defenses or audible. Bradford is reputed as a quarterback who can win with his mind and his decision making, which is exactly what he'll do in a more traditional system.
The contract the Eagles gave Bradford might be mystifying to some because, on the surface, it sounds like they overpaid for an underwhelming product. The reality is that Philadelphia, like every other team in the NFL, understands how hard it is to find even a serviceablequarterback in this league. It's the same reason why Smith found a chance to redeem himself and a journeyman quarterback named Ryan Fitzpatricknearly led the New York Jets to the playoffs. Results can change quickly when certain players are put into better situations.
Bradford has found that opportunity for a new life in Philadelphia. The contract raised more than a few eyebrows and there will be skeptics who'll want to see the Eagles consider other options. But that doesn't mean Bradford is doomed to more struggles. If anything, the Eagles might be realizing that there's still plenty to like about their quarterback's long-term future.
Follow Jeffri Chadiha on Twitter @jeffrichadiha.
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Howie Roseman explains decision to pay Sam Bradford
Posted by Mike Florio on March 4, 2016, 5:05 PM EST
Earlier this week, the Eagles decided to give quarterback Sam Bradford $22 million fully guaranteed on a two-year deal worth $17.5 million annually. On Friday, Eagles executive V.P. of football operations Howie Roseman explained the thought process behind giving Bradford so much money.
“When you’re talking about a quarterback there is no level that you won’t pay for a high performance for a quarterback,” Roseman told PFT Live on NBC Sports Radio and NBCSN. “In terms of the market and when you look at the options that are there to keep a player from free agency whether it’s a franchise tag or transition tag, one-year deals, from our perspective we wanted to make sure it was more than a one-year deal so that we weren’t building our team just for this one year. We’re trying to look at it over a period of time as we build this team. So it was very important for us to get a multi-year deal, a deal longer than one year, and this was an area right now where you’re in a vacuum. Free agency hasn’t started, able to come to a decision and for us, and for us it’s about what is best for the Philadelphia Eagles not necessarily what’s best around the league.”
Roseman is right, and what he didn’t add (but could have added) is that the top of the market for quarterbacks hasn’t grown relative to the salary cap the way that it should have in recent years, with $20 million still the high-water mark even as the salary cap has shot up by more than 25 percent. Also, and as Roseman said, “We all know how hard it is to find a quarterback.”
Besides, a two-year commitment isn’t really all that significant, especially since the Eagles could stop the bleeding at $18 million for one year, assuming the $4 million in 2017 guaranteed money carries with it an offset obligation, which would give Philadelphia credit for what Bradford earns elsewhere.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...radford/?guid=nbc_pftlive_howieroseman_160304
Posted by Mike Florio on March 4, 2016, 5:05 PM EST
Earlier this week, the Eagles decided to give quarterback Sam Bradford $22 million fully guaranteed on a two-year deal worth $17.5 million annually. On Friday, Eagles executive V.P. of football operations Howie Roseman explained the thought process behind giving Bradford so much money.
“When you’re talking about a quarterback there is no level that you won’t pay for a high performance for a quarterback,” Roseman told PFT Live on NBC Sports Radio and NBCSN. “In terms of the market and when you look at the options that are there to keep a player from free agency whether it’s a franchise tag or transition tag, one-year deals, from our perspective we wanted to make sure it was more than a one-year deal so that we weren’t building our team just for this one year. We’re trying to look at it over a period of time as we build this team. So it was very important for us to get a multi-year deal, a deal longer than one year, and this was an area right now where you’re in a vacuum. Free agency hasn’t started, able to come to a decision and for us, and for us it’s about what is best for the Philadelphia Eagles not necessarily what’s best around the league.”
Roseman is right, and what he didn’t add (but could have added) is that the top of the market for quarterbacks hasn’t grown relative to the salary cap the way that it should have in recent years, with $20 million still the high-water mark even as the salary cap has shot up by more than 25 percent. Also, and as Roseman said, “We all know how hard it is to find a quarterback.”
Besides, a two-year commitment isn’t really all that significant, especially since the Eagles could stop the bleeding at $18 million for one year, assuming the $4 million in 2017 guaranteed money carries with it an offset obligation, which would give Philadelphia credit for what Bradford earns elsewhere.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...radford/?guid=nbc_pftlive_howieroseman_160304
Orchid
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You have to read this. Great read in terms of how to manage cap in terms of SB teams, Why Sam B contract is not bad, why NE has and continues to get over (be good) and where RGIII should go. A wealth of good info from Over the Cap
http://overthecap.com/11619-2/#more-11619
Sam Bradford’s Contract and The Eagles Core
Posted on March 4, 2016 by Zack Moore
So that’s a two-year, $36 million deal with $26 million guaranteed. If the Eagles were to cut Bradford before 2017, his dead money hit would be $9 million, which is only 5.44% of the projected $165.5 million cap. This gives the Eagles leverage, but the structure of it also tells me they’re likely thinking about drafting someone, at least for a developmental role. Alex Smith and Andy Dalton are the barometers for the middle of this QB market, so if Bradford plays well this year, and with his first round draft status, he’ll likely get something in the $16-18 million per year range. If Bradford becomes a guy who throws for 4000 yards, has 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, then he’ll probably get something closer to $20 million.
This contract is perfect for both sides as Bradford gets $18 million in year one, which is only $1.6 million less than the franchise tag would have cost, but he’ll only cost the Eagles $12.5 million against the cap or 8.05%. He also gets $26 million guaranteed, so he’s guaranteed more total money than the franchise tag even if he gets cut, it really is a phenomenal contract for both sides. Having Bradford in the 7-9% of the cap range is huge for this team as it’ll give them a huge advantage this season over the Redskins if Kirk Cousins is on the franchise tag at 12.62% of the cap, the Giants with Eli Manning at 15.59% and the Cowboys with Tony Romo at 13.42%. I’ve gone over it countless times, but the average for top QB cap hits for Super Bowl champions is only at 7.85% of the cap.
The Eagles have been one of the busiest teams this offseason, re-signing Bradford, Brent Celek and Vinny Curry, while signing Lane Johnson, Malcolm Jenkins, and Zach Ertz to extensions. This front office definitely understands the principles of sound Caponomics as they’ve made decisions over the last few years that have set them up nicely from a cap perspective, so I think they knew this going into the Bradford deal. They understood the first objective is to win the division, so set yourself up to do that by first creating a balanced salary cap.
With Bradford at the top at a reasonable number, the rest of their roster really falls into place and for the second year in a row, they seem to abide by all the metrics of Caponomics, which I discovered by breaking down the salary cap situations for all 22 salary cap era champions. Just looking at this briefly, no one on this roster is making more than any Super Bowl record at a position, every “Top X” and individual Top 30 player cost comparison is very close to the Super Bowl average, and they just spent the first two months of 2016 re-signing and extending every younger, important player for their future. Not only do the cap figures line up with Super Bowl numbers, but even after they restocked their roster during the 2015 offseason–like turning LeSean McCoy’s costs into Kiko Alonso, Demarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, plus letting Jeremy Maclin walk for a contract that averages 6.48% of the cap over the five years, while Nelson Agholor is a discount in a similar body and skill type that saves them $32 million over the first four years of both of their contracts.
Sure the Byron Maxwell deal didn’t work out, but Cary Williams wasn’t going to work out for them either and Maxwell’s deal isn’t that bad considering they can release him and save $8.1 million in 2017, while he’d only cost $3.6 million against the cap. They also invested heavily in defense in the draft and found some nice players like LB Jordan Hicks and CB Eric Rowe, who both made an immediate impact, plus two nice developmental cornerbacks in the late rounds in JaCorey Shepard and Randall Evans.
Even if they keep Maxwell around through 2020 on this contract, which is unlikely, his 6.10% of the cap average for the contract isn’t deadly. That’s the thing about having sound Caponomics, understanding you can’t spend above a certain threshold: when you do have a contract that ends up not working out, it’s never a complete and utter cap-suck. Sure, Maxwell is not worth 6.10% of the cap, but is a veteran in a young cornerback group with his skills worth 3.50% of the cap? Maybe, so maybe it’s not as much of a cap-sucking mistake as some perceive it to be. It’s definitely been a contract the Eagles are less than pleased with, but the value at the time with them needing help there last offseason, him being the best on the market, and the contract staying much more manageable than Darrelle Revis’ contract that averages 8.64% over five years and 10.47% over the first three.
To reiterate the main point above, we’re seeing a team that’s setting themselves up for the future very nicely by abiding by the salary cap rules set by the Super Bowl averages and range of figures of our Caponomics research, while also abiding by the principles that govern how your team should be built. The numbers aren’t the only thing that matter; how you get there is just as important.
They went out and signed all these guys to extensions, so they’re building from within and by building from within, you’re going to save some money because you can extend players before they hit the market. Extensions have been a huge part of how the Patriots have built their dynasty. One critical extension was Rob Gronkowski’s before the 2012 season as it locked him up through 2019, his 30 year old season, at a mere 4.44% of the cap for the biggest mismatch in the NFL. I often use this comparison because it’s such a startling comparison, but that same offseason the Lions signed Calvin Johnson to an extension through 2019 as well, his 34-year old season, but that contract averages 11.05% against the cap. That’s 6.61% of the cap less on average for Gronk.
The Patriots are the masters because they understand everything about the salary cap. For years people have talked about how the Patriots don’t draft wide receivers early, so Tom Brady has no one to throw to, but that’s a complete fallacy. Belichick’s always known how to create a dynasty through the cap and saw the inflation at wide receiver, which is why they only took on Randy Moss when he hit rock bottom pricing and why they’ve always gone to the middle tier of free agency for free agents. When the Patriots made the move towards Gronk and Aaron Hernandez, what they were about to have was double the mismatches, but for less than (or just about equal to) the price of one top receiver. While I was at the combine, I finally figured out the narrative I can use to explain it all, but Belichick’s understanding of what’s needed to win a football game led to them mastering the salary cap with a formula that no one can stop. Belichick and the Patriots know how to create value because they know what they need in every role on that team: they know which positions they should draft, which they should go to free agency for, and they have their formula for what’s worked on their three Super Bowl teams.
Using wide receiver to further that point, the Patriots have always gotten a ton of receiving production out of lower than normal costs. In terms of Super Bowl teams, the Patriots Top 3 receivers only consumed 6.93%, 5.91%, 6.68% and 7.10% of the cap. Even during the year where they had Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and Brandon Lafell, those three only cost 7.10%, while the Super Bowl average is 8.36% for the 22 cap era champs. By comparison, the top three teams in spending are the 2006 Colts at 14.66%, the 2015 Broncos at 14.37% and the 1994 49ers at 13.25%. With Demaryius Thomas at 9.21% and Jerry Rice at 8.56%, they cost more than the Top 3 receivers for four of the Patriots champions.
The chapters I’m writing on the Patriots details how Brady’s reasonable cap number, their savings on their offensive line, pass catchers and running backs helps them construct a more complete team than other teams with big money quarterbacks. In 16 seasons, the Patriots have consistently had complete teams, so it’s not a mistake–it’s a planned formula.
The Patriots have always built from within, then went to free agency for only supplemental pieces and, while they had to restock during the 2015 offseason with bigger cost free agents, they’ve filled those holes and approached this offseason from a completely different angle. This offseason has been very Patriots-like so far; they’ve got over 92% of the cap locked in with all the extensions, which will leave space for their draft picks and a couple of lower tier free agents who will fill some holes. We can argue about the quality of their players, but from a salary cap perspective, they’re doing great work.
Like the Patriots, the Eagles locked up an important tight end, which works with the kind of offense Doug Pederson just came from running in Kansas City. They’ve got Ertz locked up through 2021 at 3.91% of the cap, which will be a massive value if he continues to progress into one of the league’s premier tight ends and mismatch creators.
Lane Johnson isn’t necessarily the best right tackle in the NFL, which is how his contract is paying him, but rather than pay him his first round draft pick salary for 2016 and 2017, they extended him early and locked him into a contract that’ll cost a reasonable 5.65% of the cap for the player who will be the cornerstone of your future offensive line. They would have had to pay Johnson upwards of $11 million on his fifth year option, which adds to the costs that were already going to be there and this contract is structured in a way that it could be terminated in 2018 if he’s a complete flop. And if he’s the stuff they’re hoping he will become, he’s not at an unreasonable cap figure. Is it the most exciting or sexy move? No, but it’s a sign they’re being really intelligent with their money.
Malcolm Jenkins is locked up through 2020, his 33-year old season, which isn’t too old for a safety, and he’ll cost 4.68% of the cap on average. He proved to be one of the league’s best safeties in 2015 as he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked safety behind only Harrison Smith. He was a starter in New Orleans, so he’s not someone who they brought up through the draft, but they got the former first round pick for a reasonable three-year deal worth up to $16.25 million with $8.5 million guaranteed. He only cost $2,666,666 (2.01%) in 2014 and $5,666,666 (3.96%) in 2015, which were very reasonable and that smart move rewarded them with the rights to a player who was aging and took less money than Devin McCourty for the security of the deal, rather than play 2016 under his old contract and hit free agency at 30. While McCourty averages 5.61% over his five year contract and 5.12% over the first three years of the deal, Jenkins costs 4.68% and 4.60% respectively. With the increase in corner spending, the top of the safety market has become a great place to find value and the Eagles were able to exploit that.
So there were those three extensions, then Vinny Curry was re-signed to a deal that’ll pay him an average of 5.05% of the cap through 2020, which just added more depth to that front seven. One of the main foundational principles of Belichick’s Super Bowl formula is that there has to be enough money left over to spend on a deep and multiple defense. His offense is about creating mismatches, while his defense is about being prepared for any match-up that’s thrown at them.
The Eagles defense is nowhere near there yet, but they’ve got a great, young core. Every great defense tries to have a star playmaker on all three levels of the defense and they have three key defensive players on different levels of the defense all locked up with Jenkins in the secondary averaging 4.68%, Curry on the line at 5.05% through 2020, and linebacker Brandon Graham averaging 4.04% of the cap on his four year deal he signed in 2015 that’ll last through 2018. They also signed inside linebacker Mychal Kendricks to an extension prior to 2015 that has him averaging 3.56% of the cap through 2019.
Younger talents like Jordan Hicks, Eric Rowe, Bennie Logan, and Kiko Alonso, if he rebounds in 2016, give them some key young players on rookie deals. Fletcher Cox is coming up on the end of his rookie deal, so that’s one piece that needs to be re-signed in the near future, but for whom they’ve now cleared the rest of the business out of the way.
The Eagles have a lot of their core defensive players locked in for the next half decade and that’s very important as that core will allow them to build a more multiple defense around those players, as that’s the trend of the league and for good reason. One of those young players who might step into a nice role for their defense is JaCorey Shepard, with whom they were comfortable enough to trade Brandon Boykin away, but who’s season was ended during training camp with an ACL tear. If Shepard comes back 100%, then there’s one example of a key role filled by a low cost guy.
I’ve gotten a little off track from the quarterback market, but it’s important to see how a reasonable cap hit starts to let everything else fall into place. In my opinion, there’s almost no chance Bradford sees his full 2017 cap hit of $23.5 million as, with all these smart moves, I wouldn’t be surprised if they do things like the Patriots and this deal starts an annual/bi-annual process of restructuring Bradford’s contract to keep the cap figure low, while rewarding him with signing bonuses like the Patriots do with Brady.
I know, Sam Bradford doesn’t have a supermodel wife who is worth more than him, but he has already earned $78,045,000 over his first six seasons, according to Spotrac, as he was the last of the big money rookie quarterbacks. I think that $78 million will give him the freedom to take lesser cap hits over the course of the rest of his career to build a strong team around him.
I’m in my twenties like Sam Bradford, so let me just put myself in his shoes. If I’m him, I look at the money I’ve already earned and I remember the beatings I took in St. Louis because, among other reasons, I had a very restrictive cap hit of 10+%, which is very hard to justify for any player on his rookie deal.
That cap hit was killer and, like I’ve detailed in that Manning/Brady article from last year, the Patriots have given a blueprint for how to keep a quarterback’s money manageable. Bradford will never be mistaken for Tom Brady, but franchise quarterbacks expect to be paid at the top of the market. If Bradford plays well in 2016, I think he gets a nice big extension, but I have a strong feeling that both sides work something out over the course of Bradford’s time in Philadelphia where they’re continually juggling his contract to create as much cap value as possible. Their front office is just far too smart to just hand him a 12+% of the cap contract, even if he plays lights out in 2016, as he’ll still have all the injury concerns as well. Bradford is a nice match for Pederson’s offense and he’ll have a strong running game to lean on, while the defense will be improved after they were just worn out in 2015 due to the pace with which Kelly’s offense was playing and as the lack of success led to more defensive drives.
With all this in mind, Cousins and the Redskins have to take note of Bradford’s contract in the short and long-term. In the short-term, the Redskins surprised the NFL in 2015. and they could seriously contend in 2016 if they plug a few holes with key free agents. As Jason has pointed out here, looking at historical data and the success of quarterbacks with Cousins’ small sample size haven’t been the most successful contracts for teams. Jason broke it down to show that any contract over $8 million a season is a risk for the Redskins, while the max if we eliminated all the back-up types of QBs was found out to be $14.2 million per year. So Jason concluded that the reports of the Redskins offer of $15 million would be a fair contract. That’s not much higher than where I ended up going here and said Cousins’ should just get the exact same first four years as Dalton’s, which brought him to about $13.75 per year.
While the Dalton figures average 7.88% per year, the new figures for Cousins average 8.66% of the cap, which isn’t a really big jump and will be competitive with the Eagles figures, whether they have Bradford or decide to go in another direction. This contract is higher than I would like, but it’s a very reasonable figure and gives the Redskins a better chance to build their roster than having Cousins’ on the franchise at over 12% of the cap would give them.
In my opinion, the main focus of an organization can be summed up by an Ozzie Newsome philosophy I mention often: Build a consistent organization, a team that competes for the playoffs every year and ideally makes the playoffs every year because if you make the playoffs enough, then eventually you’ll win a Super Bowl. The best way to do that is to ensure you’re competing for a playoff spot every year is by creating as many competitive advantages within division as possible. These can be created on the field, in the salary cap, in coaches meetings; these advantages can be anywhere, but my focus is on the salary cap.
If you have your franchise quarterback, it’s almost a certainty he’s the highest paid player on your roster and the players with the most leverage every time a negotiation comes around because every team is terrified of being without a quarterback. It’s critical that teams and their franchise quarterbacks have conversations about how the Patriots have been constructed and create an understanding that, as an organization, you want to give your quarterback as much money as he’s possibly worth–but it’s going to take a strong working relationship, cap creativity, and an understanding of what your objective is.
To close this out, let’s re-examine where Brock Osweiler, Ryan Fitzpatrick and a player I haven’t discussed yet, Robert Griffin III, might end up with three new pieces of information:
Elway recently established that “this won’t be Osweiler’s big contract” and he mentioned that it’s been hard to figure out his value as “when you look at where the salaries are on quarterbacks, either about $15 million or below $5 million. There’s no middle class of quarterbacks. So that’s where you hope you could get a fair deal with Brock’s people and his representatives.”
In my Cousins article and a second article titled “Explaining My Beliefs Regarding QB Contracts,” I noted the many factors that could be taken into account in this market and it seems that the Eagles gave Bradford a deal that’s really at the same value as what Nick Foles’ was reported as $12.5 million. I had Cousins as the top free agent quarterback, Bradford as the #2, and Osweiler as #3 for teams looking for a long-term solution, while Fitzpatrick is in his own category and I struggled to put a value on him.
So in the second article, I bumped Cousins’ up to the Dalton figures and had him at $13.75 million per year over four years, which I’ll now readjust to $15 million as that’s where the Redskins and Cousins’ seemed to have broken off talks, but also where Jason concluded fair value would be. I projected Bradford getting $11 million per year over three years, while he ended up at what’s essentially $12.5 million over one. I had Osweiler on a three-year deal worth $27 million, or $9 million per year.
In both cases, I undershot where they will all likely end up as I’m heavily influenced by the Caponomics Super Bowl figures, plus the Tom Brady figures. It’s my belief that teams and quarterbacks need to take note of where the real values are, where what works is and honestly assess the value of the quarterback in question compared to the rest of the market, rather than the top of this market. This is a market where spending can really get out of hand with multiple quarterbacks heading into 2016 with cap hits of 15-20% like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, and Joe Flacco before his restructure– but even then, Flacco is still at 14.52%. It’s not an indictment on these players, but no one can be worth 15-20% of the cap in the ultimate team sport. You add in the fact that Brady is at 9-10% of the cap, Aaron Rodgers is up around 12%, but still lower cost and more productive than these other guys, then you really start to understand the conversation every team should be having about the value of their quarterback. It’s the most expensive position, so overspending heavily is a matter of as much as 8-10% of the salary cap, rather than 2-4% at most other positions.
Taking my estimate of $9 million a year for Osweiler, let’s just add a couple million and call it $11-12 million per year over three-years with Denver and that wouldn’t be a terrible value, although it might close up some space that could’ve been used to re-sign a key free agent, but that’s a decision they’ll likely have to make. If they did increase my projection to $11 million per year, it’d be $33 million over three, which is reasonable and would cost them 5.80%, 6.65% and 7.30% if they go with a structure of $9 million in 2016, $11 million in 2017 and $13 million in 2018. If they had to go to $12 million, I couldn’t fault them as either way they’ll be under 8.00% of the cap in every year of the contract, which would still be an advantage. The Raiders are about to give Carr a big contract, while the Chiefs spend about 10-11% of the cap on Alex Smith and Phillip Rivers is in that 12+% area, which likely plays a part in why the Chargers have so many holes on that team.
Using the logic from that great article from Jason where he broke down how $15 million is likely the top of the range what Cousins should be paid, I would have to believe signing the more unproven Osweiler for $11-12 million is a fairly risky proposition, but I think paying $2-3 million more per year for Osweiler rather than taking a risk like bringing in RG3 or even Chase Daniel is worth it, especially for a team that doesn’t have a high first round pick after winning the Super Bowl. Keeping Osweiler will keep them in the race for the 2016 Super Bowl, while the other options would now.
Keep Osweiler, pay $11 million per year if you can, pay $12 million if you have to, but don’t let him hit free agency and hear offers from Cleveland, St. Louis or Houston. It’s very likely that their involvement could increase his cost up toward that $15 million number as Houston, rightfully, feels like they’re just a quarterback away from a shot at the Super Bowl. The Browns and Rams are too messy for me to get involved if I’m Osweiler.
Fitzpatrick:
I’m surprised that the Jets and Fitzpatrick haven’t come to an agreement yet as there seemed to be the sense that both sides were ready to work this out back in January. I have a feeling that both sides are having as difficult a time as I am finding his true value and justifying their position to the other side of the table. It’s possible that Fitzpatrick’s side believes he’s earned the same kind of money that Kirk Cousins’ is asking for, something in the $15-16 million range and I’m betting Fitzpatrick’s side is looking at this more like a 4-5 year deal, while the Jets want it in the 2-3 year range. While Fitzpatrick was terrific for them in 2015 and he’s been terrific under Chan Gailey, he’s still a career journeyman and that’s got to scare them away from getting too expensive. Part of me believes that Fitzpatrick has to understand a $15-16 million price tag would be restrictive, but he played well with the Texans in 2014 and they might have the cap space to swing it, which could raise his price if he hits free agency.
On the Jets side of the table, they’re probably trying to sell his relationship and success with Chan Gailey and their team’s roster construction. A team led by Fitzpatrick needs a strong team around him to compete for a championship, so he’ll understand the cost in players the Jets won’t be able to sign as their Top 51 already costs $151 million of the $155.27 million cap before we’ve even started with free agency. Add in the need for 4-5% of the cap to sign draft picks and the Jets really don’t have the space to sign him for a bigger contract.
I think that the most Fitzpatrick could realistically see from Houston would be $12 million or so, while the Jets may give him something in the $9-11 range. With the former first round pick, younger and slightly more enticing commodity Bradford signed for $12.5 million, I think Fitzpatrick’s value should really fall at $10 million a year as that’ll outpace Foles real value for that contract of $6,396,000 per year over the first two years as year number three was constructed to let them get out if he ended up being a disaster. Those cap hits have Foles at about 4.25% of the cap, which is a good barometer for where the floor of Fitzpatrick’s value is with Bradford’s 8.05% being the ceiling.
If the Jets were to give him a two or three year contract worth $10 million a year, Fitzpatrick’s average salary cap hit would be right around 6.00% of the cap, which is a really solid value for the Jets and a fair valuation of his real value on the field. Remember, the average Super Bowl champion quarterback costs 7.85% of the cap, so a lot of teams have won without the best quarterback in the NFL and to do that, you have to value him at the right cost.
All last offseason and into the season I talked about how the Jets were building the same formula as the 2000 Ravens and Ryan Fitzpatrick was the perfect guy to fill in at quarterback as his low-cost, accuracy, intelligence, and experience make him a great value for a team that needs a lower-cost quarterback, so they can spend that money saved elsewhere. For him to continue to be the perfect player for this role, he can’t make too much money as that would defeat the purpose. When it comes time to pay quarterbacks, teams (and we as fans) can’t get so excited about the need to re-sign the quarterback that we forget what he really is as a player. You look at that Ravens team with starting quarterbacks Tony Banks and Trent Dilfer combining for 5.25% of the cap, then the 2005 Steelers with Big Ben at 4.94% of the cap, plus the 2008 Steelers with him at 6.87% and you see three teams who won Super Bowls on the backs of their defense with quarterbacks who cost them right in the range we’re talking about for Fitzpatrick. It’s the same formula, so you better use the same kind of numbers.
Griffin:
I didn’t get into RG3 because I have had no idea how to value him. He’s the toughest of these to figure out because his rookie year was so phenomenal in every way, but he’s done nothing since. There are some really positive things that came out of that rookie year though, stats that could interest teams like the Broncos if they decide to let Osweiler go for more money, but also the Rams, Browns and Texans as they’re all QB needy. (Osweiler has to be aware of the impact RG3 could have on his own negotiations.) Mike Freeman from Bleacher Report wrote on March 4th that at least 10 teams are in the running for RG3, maybe as many as 15, but I’m sure that even the value these teams have placed on RG3 is all over the board. So how do we get down to what RG3 should actually be paid?
MMA analyst Robin Black was on Joe Rogan’s podcast the other week and he pointed out how we live in such a binary society now where everyone wants to choose either yes or no, either I love it or I hate it, and the RG3 debate is one of those kinds of polarizing situations where everyone who’s interested in it has a fairly strong opinion. Colin Kaepernick is in the same boat as RG3 where someone may be willing to make a play for him, but he’ll likely cost much more as his contract gives him some leverage, so RG3 is the cheaper version of the same kind of player, which will make RG3 the first play for any team in need of a quarterback with his skillset, while Kaepernick will have the leverage of his current contract.
I’m of the belief that RG3 could become a mid-market quarterback in the right situation. Something people have forgotten about his 2012 campaign is that he had a 65.6% completion percentage and he led the NFL with 8.1 yards per attempt, so it’s not just all about his legs. His 20 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions just adds to the positive narrative. He doesn’t need to run for 815 yards like he did in 2012 to provide solid value for any of the teams in the market for a quarterback, especially because a change of scenery could be just what the doctor ordered for him. (Although, the doctor will probably order an MRI too.)
If I was RG3’s agent, I would look for the best opportunity for him to just be a piece, surrounded by a great team. That 2012 Redskins team was first in the NFL with an astounding 2709 rushing yards with RG3’s 815 and Alfred Morris’ 1613, and, while I wouldn’t want RG3 to run too much, I’d make sure to find a team with a strong running game to lean on as that will help him re-establish his own confidence and a positive public perception for the next contract. The right move for RG3 right now could be the difference between playing until he’s in his late-30s and making upwards of $350-400 million over the course of his career or being out of the NFL after this contract. I am not looking for the biggest contract; I am looking for something reasonable and in a situation where RG3 has the best chance to succeed.
If the Broncos are interested in RG3, I would take whatever they were offering as that’d be a place he’d have the best chance at completely revitalizing his career. I think the value for RG3 will end up being the same as Osweiler’s around $11 million, but if the Broncos are thinking of going with RG3 as a more low-cost player, but with explosive potential, I’d be willing to take $8 million a year if I’m his agent to get that done. Even if it was $8 million a year over the next three years, I’d take it because the earnings in later years will be astronomical with the increasing cap. We must also take into account something we all forgot with this Broncos/RG3 scenario is that Gary Kubiak was Mike Shanahan’s OC in Denver from 1995 until Kubiak was hired as the Texans head coach in 2006. Most of the NFL is running the West Coast offense now, but I would assume no two West Coast O’s are more similar than the guys who spent 10 years together in Denver.
Of the other three teams who are reportedly the most likely destinations–the Rams, Browns, and Texans– I think that all three could be decent opportunities for RG3. The Rams with Todd Gurley would provide him with a power running back to alleviate the pressure on him. The Browns have been a QB cemetery, but Hue Jackson is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL and maybe he can figure out how to maximize RG3’s talents. The Texans are the team that’s most likely to make the playoffs out of these three and they have a decent running attack with a great defense, two things that will help RG3 succeed in the win column and increase his value for his next contract. Maybe being back in Texas would help him as well.
I think RG3 gets a two or three year deal worth $10-11 million per year and I hope whoever picks him up has a plan to maximize his talents, so that maybe he can rebound and give us a little excitement this year.
Tweet me @ZackMooreNFL
Be sure to check out episode #7 of The Zack Moore Show on iTunes and Soundcloud to listen to the podcast that accompanies this article and will expand on much of what I discuss here.
http://overthecap.com/11619-2/#more-11619
Sam Bradford’s Contract and The Eagles Core
Posted on March 4, 2016 by Zack Moore
So that’s a two-year, $36 million deal with $26 million guaranteed. If the Eagles were to cut Bradford before 2017, his dead money hit would be $9 million, which is only 5.44% of the projected $165.5 million cap. This gives the Eagles leverage, but the structure of it also tells me they’re likely thinking about drafting someone, at least for a developmental role. Alex Smith and Andy Dalton are the barometers for the middle of this QB market, so if Bradford plays well this year, and with his first round draft status, he’ll likely get something in the $16-18 million per year range. If Bradford becomes a guy who throws for 4000 yards, has 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, then he’ll probably get something closer to $20 million.
This contract is perfect for both sides as Bradford gets $18 million in year one, which is only $1.6 million less than the franchise tag would have cost, but he’ll only cost the Eagles $12.5 million against the cap or 8.05%. He also gets $26 million guaranteed, so he’s guaranteed more total money than the franchise tag even if he gets cut, it really is a phenomenal contract for both sides. Having Bradford in the 7-9% of the cap range is huge for this team as it’ll give them a huge advantage this season over the Redskins if Kirk Cousins is on the franchise tag at 12.62% of the cap, the Giants with Eli Manning at 15.59% and the Cowboys with Tony Romo at 13.42%. I’ve gone over it countless times, but the average for top QB cap hits for Super Bowl champions is only at 7.85% of the cap.
The Eagles have been one of the busiest teams this offseason, re-signing Bradford, Brent Celek and Vinny Curry, while signing Lane Johnson, Malcolm Jenkins, and Zach Ertz to extensions. This front office definitely understands the principles of sound Caponomics as they’ve made decisions over the last few years that have set them up nicely from a cap perspective, so I think they knew this going into the Bradford deal. They understood the first objective is to win the division, so set yourself up to do that by first creating a balanced salary cap.
With Bradford at the top at a reasonable number, the rest of their roster really falls into place and for the second year in a row, they seem to abide by all the metrics of Caponomics, which I discovered by breaking down the salary cap situations for all 22 salary cap era champions. Just looking at this briefly, no one on this roster is making more than any Super Bowl record at a position, every “Top X” and individual Top 30 player cost comparison is very close to the Super Bowl average, and they just spent the first two months of 2016 re-signing and extending every younger, important player for their future. Not only do the cap figures line up with Super Bowl numbers, but even after they restocked their roster during the 2015 offseason–like turning LeSean McCoy’s costs into Kiko Alonso, Demarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, plus letting Jeremy Maclin walk for a contract that averages 6.48% of the cap over the five years, while Nelson Agholor is a discount in a similar body and skill type that saves them $32 million over the first four years of both of their contracts.
Sure the Byron Maxwell deal didn’t work out, but Cary Williams wasn’t going to work out for them either and Maxwell’s deal isn’t that bad considering they can release him and save $8.1 million in 2017, while he’d only cost $3.6 million against the cap. They also invested heavily in defense in the draft and found some nice players like LB Jordan Hicks and CB Eric Rowe, who both made an immediate impact, plus two nice developmental cornerbacks in the late rounds in JaCorey Shepard and Randall Evans.
Even if they keep Maxwell around through 2020 on this contract, which is unlikely, his 6.10% of the cap average for the contract isn’t deadly. That’s the thing about having sound Caponomics, understanding you can’t spend above a certain threshold: when you do have a contract that ends up not working out, it’s never a complete and utter cap-suck. Sure, Maxwell is not worth 6.10% of the cap, but is a veteran in a young cornerback group with his skills worth 3.50% of the cap? Maybe, so maybe it’s not as much of a cap-sucking mistake as some perceive it to be. It’s definitely been a contract the Eagles are less than pleased with, but the value at the time with them needing help there last offseason, him being the best on the market, and the contract staying much more manageable than Darrelle Revis’ contract that averages 8.64% over five years and 10.47% over the first three.
To reiterate the main point above, we’re seeing a team that’s setting themselves up for the future very nicely by abiding by the salary cap rules set by the Super Bowl averages and range of figures of our Caponomics research, while also abiding by the principles that govern how your team should be built. The numbers aren’t the only thing that matter; how you get there is just as important.
They went out and signed all these guys to extensions, so they’re building from within and by building from within, you’re going to save some money because you can extend players before they hit the market. Extensions have been a huge part of how the Patriots have built their dynasty. One critical extension was Rob Gronkowski’s before the 2012 season as it locked him up through 2019, his 30 year old season, at a mere 4.44% of the cap for the biggest mismatch in the NFL. I often use this comparison because it’s such a startling comparison, but that same offseason the Lions signed Calvin Johnson to an extension through 2019 as well, his 34-year old season, but that contract averages 11.05% against the cap. That’s 6.61% of the cap less on average for Gronk.
The Patriots are the masters because they understand everything about the salary cap. For years people have talked about how the Patriots don’t draft wide receivers early, so Tom Brady has no one to throw to, but that’s a complete fallacy. Belichick’s always known how to create a dynasty through the cap and saw the inflation at wide receiver, which is why they only took on Randy Moss when he hit rock bottom pricing and why they’ve always gone to the middle tier of free agency for free agents. When the Patriots made the move towards Gronk and Aaron Hernandez, what they were about to have was double the mismatches, but for less than (or just about equal to) the price of one top receiver. While I was at the combine, I finally figured out the narrative I can use to explain it all, but Belichick’s understanding of what’s needed to win a football game led to them mastering the salary cap with a formula that no one can stop. Belichick and the Patriots know how to create value because they know what they need in every role on that team: they know which positions they should draft, which they should go to free agency for, and they have their formula for what’s worked on their three Super Bowl teams.
Using wide receiver to further that point, the Patriots have always gotten a ton of receiving production out of lower than normal costs. In terms of Super Bowl teams, the Patriots Top 3 receivers only consumed 6.93%, 5.91%, 6.68% and 7.10% of the cap. Even during the year where they had Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and Brandon Lafell, those three only cost 7.10%, while the Super Bowl average is 8.36% for the 22 cap era champs. By comparison, the top three teams in spending are the 2006 Colts at 14.66%, the 2015 Broncos at 14.37% and the 1994 49ers at 13.25%. With Demaryius Thomas at 9.21% and Jerry Rice at 8.56%, they cost more than the Top 3 receivers for four of the Patriots champions.
The chapters I’m writing on the Patriots details how Brady’s reasonable cap number, their savings on their offensive line, pass catchers and running backs helps them construct a more complete team than other teams with big money quarterbacks. In 16 seasons, the Patriots have consistently had complete teams, so it’s not a mistake–it’s a planned formula.
The Patriots have always built from within, then went to free agency for only supplemental pieces and, while they had to restock during the 2015 offseason with bigger cost free agents, they’ve filled those holes and approached this offseason from a completely different angle. This offseason has been very Patriots-like so far; they’ve got over 92% of the cap locked in with all the extensions, which will leave space for their draft picks and a couple of lower tier free agents who will fill some holes. We can argue about the quality of their players, but from a salary cap perspective, they’re doing great work.
Like the Patriots, the Eagles locked up an important tight end, which works with the kind of offense Doug Pederson just came from running in Kansas City. They’ve got Ertz locked up through 2021 at 3.91% of the cap, which will be a massive value if he continues to progress into one of the league’s premier tight ends and mismatch creators.
Lane Johnson isn’t necessarily the best right tackle in the NFL, which is how his contract is paying him, but rather than pay him his first round draft pick salary for 2016 and 2017, they extended him early and locked him into a contract that’ll cost a reasonable 5.65% of the cap for the player who will be the cornerstone of your future offensive line. They would have had to pay Johnson upwards of $11 million on his fifth year option, which adds to the costs that were already going to be there and this contract is structured in a way that it could be terminated in 2018 if he’s a complete flop. And if he’s the stuff they’re hoping he will become, he’s not at an unreasonable cap figure. Is it the most exciting or sexy move? No, but it’s a sign they’re being really intelligent with their money.
Malcolm Jenkins is locked up through 2020, his 33-year old season, which isn’t too old for a safety, and he’ll cost 4.68% of the cap on average. He proved to be one of the league’s best safeties in 2015 as he was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked safety behind only Harrison Smith. He was a starter in New Orleans, so he’s not someone who they brought up through the draft, but they got the former first round pick for a reasonable three-year deal worth up to $16.25 million with $8.5 million guaranteed. He only cost $2,666,666 (2.01%) in 2014 and $5,666,666 (3.96%) in 2015, which were very reasonable and that smart move rewarded them with the rights to a player who was aging and took less money than Devin McCourty for the security of the deal, rather than play 2016 under his old contract and hit free agency at 30. While McCourty averages 5.61% over his five year contract and 5.12% over the first three years of the deal, Jenkins costs 4.68% and 4.60% respectively. With the increase in corner spending, the top of the safety market has become a great place to find value and the Eagles were able to exploit that.
So there were those three extensions, then Vinny Curry was re-signed to a deal that’ll pay him an average of 5.05% of the cap through 2020, which just added more depth to that front seven. One of the main foundational principles of Belichick’s Super Bowl formula is that there has to be enough money left over to spend on a deep and multiple defense. His offense is about creating mismatches, while his defense is about being prepared for any match-up that’s thrown at them.
The Eagles defense is nowhere near there yet, but they’ve got a great, young core. Every great defense tries to have a star playmaker on all three levels of the defense and they have three key defensive players on different levels of the defense all locked up with Jenkins in the secondary averaging 4.68%, Curry on the line at 5.05% through 2020, and linebacker Brandon Graham averaging 4.04% of the cap on his four year deal he signed in 2015 that’ll last through 2018. They also signed inside linebacker Mychal Kendricks to an extension prior to 2015 that has him averaging 3.56% of the cap through 2019.
Younger talents like Jordan Hicks, Eric Rowe, Bennie Logan, and Kiko Alonso, if he rebounds in 2016, give them some key young players on rookie deals. Fletcher Cox is coming up on the end of his rookie deal, so that’s one piece that needs to be re-signed in the near future, but for whom they’ve now cleared the rest of the business out of the way.
The Eagles have a lot of their core defensive players locked in for the next half decade and that’s very important as that core will allow them to build a more multiple defense around those players, as that’s the trend of the league and for good reason. One of those young players who might step into a nice role for their defense is JaCorey Shepard, with whom they were comfortable enough to trade Brandon Boykin away, but who’s season was ended during training camp with an ACL tear. If Shepard comes back 100%, then there’s one example of a key role filled by a low cost guy.
I’ve gotten a little off track from the quarterback market, but it’s important to see how a reasonable cap hit starts to let everything else fall into place. In my opinion, there’s almost no chance Bradford sees his full 2017 cap hit of $23.5 million as, with all these smart moves, I wouldn’t be surprised if they do things like the Patriots and this deal starts an annual/bi-annual process of restructuring Bradford’s contract to keep the cap figure low, while rewarding him with signing bonuses like the Patriots do with Brady.
I know, Sam Bradford doesn’t have a supermodel wife who is worth more than him, but he has already earned $78,045,000 over his first six seasons, according to Spotrac, as he was the last of the big money rookie quarterbacks. I think that $78 million will give him the freedom to take lesser cap hits over the course of the rest of his career to build a strong team around him.
I’m in my twenties like Sam Bradford, so let me just put myself in his shoes. If I’m him, I look at the money I’ve already earned and I remember the beatings I took in St. Louis because, among other reasons, I had a very restrictive cap hit of 10+%, which is very hard to justify for any player on his rookie deal.
That cap hit was killer and, like I’ve detailed in that Manning/Brady article from last year, the Patriots have given a blueprint for how to keep a quarterback’s money manageable. Bradford will never be mistaken for Tom Brady, but franchise quarterbacks expect to be paid at the top of the market. If Bradford plays well in 2016, I think he gets a nice big extension, but I have a strong feeling that both sides work something out over the course of Bradford’s time in Philadelphia where they’re continually juggling his contract to create as much cap value as possible. Their front office is just far too smart to just hand him a 12+% of the cap contract, even if he plays lights out in 2016, as he’ll still have all the injury concerns as well. Bradford is a nice match for Pederson’s offense and he’ll have a strong running game to lean on, while the defense will be improved after they were just worn out in 2015 due to the pace with which Kelly’s offense was playing and as the lack of success led to more defensive drives.
With all this in mind, Cousins and the Redskins have to take note of Bradford’s contract in the short and long-term. In the short-term, the Redskins surprised the NFL in 2015. and they could seriously contend in 2016 if they plug a few holes with key free agents. As Jason has pointed out here, looking at historical data and the success of quarterbacks with Cousins’ small sample size haven’t been the most successful contracts for teams. Jason broke it down to show that any contract over $8 million a season is a risk for the Redskins, while the max if we eliminated all the back-up types of QBs was found out to be $14.2 million per year. So Jason concluded that the reports of the Redskins offer of $15 million would be a fair contract. That’s not much higher than where I ended up going here and said Cousins’ should just get the exact same first four years as Dalton’s, which brought him to about $13.75 per year.
While the Dalton figures average 7.88% per year, the new figures for Cousins average 8.66% of the cap, which isn’t a really big jump and will be competitive with the Eagles figures, whether they have Bradford or decide to go in another direction. This contract is higher than I would like, but it’s a very reasonable figure and gives the Redskins a better chance to build their roster than having Cousins’ on the franchise at over 12% of the cap would give them.
In my opinion, the main focus of an organization can be summed up by an Ozzie Newsome philosophy I mention often: Build a consistent organization, a team that competes for the playoffs every year and ideally makes the playoffs every year because if you make the playoffs enough, then eventually you’ll win a Super Bowl. The best way to do that is to ensure you’re competing for a playoff spot every year is by creating as many competitive advantages within division as possible. These can be created on the field, in the salary cap, in coaches meetings; these advantages can be anywhere, but my focus is on the salary cap.
If you have your franchise quarterback, it’s almost a certainty he’s the highest paid player on your roster and the players with the most leverage every time a negotiation comes around because every team is terrified of being without a quarterback. It’s critical that teams and their franchise quarterbacks have conversations about how the Patriots have been constructed and create an understanding that, as an organization, you want to give your quarterback as much money as he’s possibly worth–but it’s going to take a strong working relationship, cap creativity, and an understanding of what your objective is.
To close this out, let’s re-examine where Brock Osweiler, Ryan Fitzpatrick and a player I haven’t discussed yet, Robert Griffin III, might end up with three new pieces of information:
- Bradford’s been signed for what’s essentially a one-year deal worth $12.5 million against the cap and $18 million in Year 1 money for him.
- The Redskins last offer to Cousins was about $15 million per year and Jason has calculated that’s about the highest his contract can go.
- We assumed Cousins was off the market already, but with Bradford certainly off the market, this makes Fitzpatrick and Osweiler the two best quarterbacks available, while RG3 is more of a crapshoot but teams may bank on his potential. Osweiler and RG3 will be 26 this season, while Fitzpatrick will be 34, so they’re two completely different situations as Osweiler and RG3 could be billed as your future franchise quarterbacks, while Fitzpatrick is in the “stop-gap” conversation.
Elway recently established that “this won’t be Osweiler’s big contract” and he mentioned that it’s been hard to figure out his value as “when you look at where the salaries are on quarterbacks, either about $15 million or below $5 million. There’s no middle class of quarterbacks. So that’s where you hope you could get a fair deal with Brock’s people and his representatives.”
In my Cousins article and a second article titled “Explaining My Beliefs Regarding QB Contracts,” I noted the many factors that could be taken into account in this market and it seems that the Eagles gave Bradford a deal that’s really at the same value as what Nick Foles’ was reported as $12.5 million. I had Cousins as the top free agent quarterback, Bradford as the #2, and Osweiler as #3 for teams looking for a long-term solution, while Fitzpatrick is in his own category and I struggled to put a value on him.
So in the second article, I bumped Cousins’ up to the Dalton figures and had him at $13.75 million per year over four years, which I’ll now readjust to $15 million as that’s where the Redskins and Cousins’ seemed to have broken off talks, but also where Jason concluded fair value would be. I projected Bradford getting $11 million per year over three years, while he ended up at what’s essentially $12.5 million over one. I had Osweiler on a three-year deal worth $27 million, or $9 million per year.
In both cases, I undershot where they will all likely end up as I’m heavily influenced by the Caponomics Super Bowl figures, plus the Tom Brady figures. It’s my belief that teams and quarterbacks need to take note of where the real values are, where what works is and honestly assess the value of the quarterback in question compared to the rest of the market, rather than the top of this market. This is a market where spending can really get out of hand with multiple quarterbacks heading into 2016 with cap hits of 15-20% like Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, and Joe Flacco before his restructure– but even then, Flacco is still at 14.52%. It’s not an indictment on these players, but no one can be worth 15-20% of the cap in the ultimate team sport. You add in the fact that Brady is at 9-10% of the cap, Aaron Rodgers is up around 12%, but still lower cost and more productive than these other guys, then you really start to understand the conversation every team should be having about the value of their quarterback. It’s the most expensive position, so overspending heavily is a matter of as much as 8-10% of the salary cap, rather than 2-4% at most other positions.
Taking my estimate of $9 million a year for Osweiler, let’s just add a couple million and call it $11-12 million per year over three-years with Denver and that wouldn’t be a terrible value, although it might close up some space that could’ve been used to re-sign a key free agent, but that’s a decision they’ll likely have to make. If they did increase my projection to $11 million per year, it’d be $33 million over three, which is reasonable and would cost them 5.80%, 6.65% and 7.30% if they go with a structure of $9 million in 2016, $11 million in 2017 and $13 million in 2018. If they had to go to $12 million, I couldn’t fault them as either way they’ll be under 8.00% of the cap in every year of the contract, which would still be an advantage. The Raiders are about to give Carr a big contract, while the Chiefs spend about 10-11% of the cap on Alex Smith and Phillip Rivers is in that 12+% area, which likely plays a part in why the Chargers have so many holes on that team.
Using the logic from that great article from Jason where he broke down how $15 million is likely the top of the range what Cousins should be paid, I would have to believe signing the more unproven Osweiler for $11-12 million is a fairly risky proposition, but I think paying $2-3 million more per year for Osweiler rather than taking a risk like bringing in RG3 or even Chase Daniel is worth it, especially for a team that doesn’t have a high first round pick after winning the Super Bowl. Keeping Osweiler will keep them in the race for the 2016 Super Bowl, while the other options would now.
Keep Osweiler, pay $11 million per year if you can, pay $12 million if you have to, but don’t let him hit free agency and hear offers from Cleveland, St. Louis or Houston. It’s very likely that their involvement could increase his cost up toward that $15 million number as Houston, rightfully, feels like they’re just a quarterback away from a shot at the Super Bowl. The Browns and Rams are too messy for me to get involved if I’m Osweiler.
Fitzpatrick:
I’m surprised that the Jets and Fitzpatrick haven’t come to an agreement yet as there seemed to be the sense that both sides were ready to work this out back in January. I have a feeling that both sides are having as difficult a time as I am finding his true value and justifying their position to the other side of the table. It’s possible that Fitzpatrick’s side believes he’s earned the same kind of money that Kirk Cousins’ is asking for, something in the $15-16 million range and I’m betting Fitzpatrick’s side is looking at this more like a 4-5 year deal, while the Jets want it in the 2-3 year range. While Fitzpatrick was terrific for them in 2015 and he’s been terrific under Chan Gailey, he’s still a career journeyman and that’s got to scare them away from getting too expensive. Part of me believes that Fitzpatrick has to understand a $15-16 million price tag would be restrictive, but he played well with the Texans in 2014 and they might have the cap space to swing it, which could raise his price if he hits free agency.
On the Jets side of the table, they’re probably trying to sell his relationship and success with Chan Gailey and their team’s roster construction. A team led by Fitzpatrick needs a strong team around him to compete for a championship, so he’ll understand the cost in players the Jets won’t be able to sign as their Top 51 already costs $151 million of the $155.27 million cap before we’ve even started with free agency. Add in the need for 4-5% of the cap to sign draft picks and the Jets really don’t have the space to sign him for a bigger contract.
I think that the most Fitzpatrick could realistically see from Houston would be $12 million or so, while the Jets may give him something in the $9-11 range. With the former first round pick, younger and slightly more enticing commodity Bradford signed for $12.5 million, I think Fitzpatrick’s value should really fall at $10 million a year as that’ll outpace Foles real value for that contract of $6,396,000 per year over the first two years as year number three was constructed to let them get out if he ended up being a disaster. Those cap hits have Foles at about 4.25% of the cap, which is a good barometer for where the floor of Fitzpatrick’s value is with Bradford’s 8.05% being the ceiling.
If the Jets were to give him a two or three year contract worth $10 million a year, Fitzpatrick’s average salary cap hit would be right around 6.00% of the cap, which is a really solid value for the Jets and a fair valuation of his real value on the field. Remember, the average Super Bowl champion quarterback costs 7.85% of the cap, so a lot of teams have won without the best quarterback in the NFL and to do that, you have to value him at the right cost.
All last offseason and into the season I talked about how the Jets were building the same formula as the 2000 Ravens and Ryan Fitzpatrick was the perfect guy to fill in at quarterback as his low-cost, accuracy, intelligence, and experience make him a great value for a team that needs a lower-cost quarterback, so they can spend that money saved elsewhere. For him to continue to be the perfect player for this role, he can’t make too much money as that would defeat the purpose. When it comes time to pay quarterbacks, teams (and we as fans) can’t get so excited about the need to re-sign the quarterback that we forget what he really is as a player. You look at that Ravens team with starting quarterbacks Tony Banks and Trent Dilfer combining for 5.25% of the cap, then the 2005 Steelers with Big Ben at 4.94% of the cap, plus the 2008 Steelers with him at 6.87% and you see three teams who won Super Bowls on the backs of their defense with quarterbacks who cost them right in the range we’re talking about for Fitzpatrick. It’s the same formula, so you better use the same kind of numbers.
Griffin:
I didn’t get into RG3 because I have had no idea how to value him. He’s the toughest of these to figure out because his rookie year was so phenomenal in every way, but he’s done nothing since. There are some really positive things that came out of that rookie year though, stats that could interest teams like the Broncos if they decide to let Osweiler go for more money, but also the Rams, Browns and Texans as they’re all QB needy. (Osweiler has to be aware of the impact RG3 could have on his own negotiations.) Mike Freeman from Bleacher Report wrote on March 4th that at least 10 teams are in the running for RG3, maybe as many as 15, but I’m sure that even the value these teams have placed on RG3 is all over the board. So how do we get down to what RG3 should actually be paid?
MMA analyst Robin Black was on Joe Rogan’s podcast the other week and he pointed out how we live in such a binary society now where everyone wants to choose either yes or no, either I love it or I hate it, and the RG3 debate is one of those kinds of polarizing situations where everyone who’s interested in it has a fairly strong opinion. Colin Kaepernick is in the same boat as RG3 where someone may be willing to make a play for him, but he’ll likely cost much more as his contract gives him some leverage, so RG3 is the cheaper version of the same kind of player, which will make RG3 the first play for any team in need of a quarterback with his skillset, while Kaepernick will have the leverage of his current contract.
I’m of the belief that RG3 could become a mid-market quarterback in the right situation. Something people have forgotten about his 2012 campaign is that he had a 65.6% completion percentage and he led the NFL with 8.1 yards per attempt, so it’s not just all about his legs. His 20 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions just adds to the positive narrative. He doesn’t need to run for 815 yards like he did in 2012 to provide solid value for any of the teams in the market for a quarterback, especially because a change of scenery could be just what the doctor ordered for him. (Although, the doctor will probably order an MRI too.)
If I was RG3’s agent, I would look for the best opportunity for him to just be a piece, surrounded by a great team. That 2012 Redskins team was first in the NFL with an astounding 2709 rushing yards with RG3’s 815 and Alfred Morris’ 1613, and, while I wouldn’t want RG3 to run too much, I’d make sure to find a team with a strong running game to lean on as that will help him re-establish his own confidence and a positive public perception for the next contract. The right move for RG3 right now could be the difference between playing until he’s in his late-30s and making upwards of $350-400 million over the course of his career or being out of the NFL after this contract. I am not looking for the biggest contract; I am looking for something reasonable and in a situation where RG3 has the best chance to succeed.
If the Broncos are interested in RG3, I would take whatever they were offering as that’d be a place he’d have the best chance at completely revitalizing his career. I think the value for RG3 will end up being the same as Osweiler’s around $11 million, but if the Broncos are thinking of going with RG3 as a more low-cost player, but with explosive potential, I’d be willing to take $8 million a year if I’m his agent to get that done. Even if it was $8 million a year over the next three years, I’d take it because the earnings in later years will be astronomical with the increasing cap. We must also take into account something we all forgot with this Broncos/RG3 scenario is that Gary Kubiak was Mike Shanahan’s OC in Denver from 1995 until Kubiak was hired as the Texans head coach in 2006. Most of the NFL is running the West Coast offense now, but I would assume no two West Coast O’s are more similar than the guys who spent 10 years together in Denver.
Of the other three teams who are reportedly the most likely destinations–the Rams, Browns, and Texans– I think that all three could be decent opportunities for RG3. The Rams with Todd Gurley would provide him with a power running back to alleviate the pressure on him. The Browns have been a QB cemetery, but Hue Jackson is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL and maybe he can figure out how to maximize RG3’s talents. The Texans are the team that’s most likely to make the playoffs out of these three and they have a decent running attack with a great defense, two things that will help RG3 succeed in the win column and increase his value for his next contract. Maybe being back in Texas would help him as well.
I think RG3 gets a two or three year deal worth $10-11 million per year and I hope whoever picks him up has a plan to maximize his talents, so that maybe he can rebound and give us a little excitement this year.
Tweet me @ZackMooreNFL
Be sure to check out episode #7 of The Zack Moore Show on iTunes and Soundcloud to listen to the podcast that accompanies this article and will expand on much of what I discuss here.
HE WITH HORNS
Hall of Fame
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I still want to see this guy play in the same offense for a couple years in a row, with some decent protection and some good WRs. His ceiling is WAY higher than Alex Smith's.
Rynie
Cowboys rudeboy.
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-X-
Medium-sized Lebowski
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Well, to be fair, it was the rookie pay scale structure that accounts for most of his earnings to date.
That was an antiquated system a decade ago.
tavian
Not me.I am waaaay uglier
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This is so laughable.Seems like people have been saying that about every year of his career.Every year a built in excuse
for why he hasn't performed to his draft status.Preseason last year people were saying how he was gonna explode in Chip Kellys
quarterback proof offense.I guess circumstances weren't just right for Bradford.