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http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/in...ojecting-top-pass-rushing-prospects-nfl-draft
With the 2015 NFL draft quickly approaching, it is time for Football Outsiders' annual SackSEER projections. The SackSEER projections are based on a statistical analysis of the factors that best predict the pass-rushing success of edge rushers (4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers).
SackSEER correctly predicted a number of busts at the edge rusher position, including Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, and Courtney Upshaw, and identified both Justin Houston (a third-rounder for Kansas City) and Jamie Collins(taken in the late second round by New England) as significant sleepers.
SackSEER is far from perfect, however. For example, it predicted big things for Cleveland's Barkevious Mingo, who has yet to make a major impact. (For a full explanation of what goes into the SackSEER formula, refer to the methodology at the bottom of the article.)
This year there is considerable uncertainty concerning who will be the first edge rusher selected in the NFL draft. Randy Gregory, Dante Fowler Jr., Shane Ray, or Vic Beasley could all conceivably hear their names called first. SackSEER, however, projects this class as night and day. It sees two of the four as excellent prospects and the other two as highly likely to become busts.
Here's a look at how SackSEER, which projects the number of regular-season sacks that the edge rusher will record over the course of his first five NFL seasons, ranks the top edge rushers in the draft, plus a look at our No. 1 sleeper:
1. Vic Beasley, Clemson
Projection: 34.1 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 25 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Von Miller, Andre Carter
Beasley gives you almost everything you want in an edge-rusher prospect. He was consistently productive in college, recording 32 sacks and nine passes defensed over a four-year career. Where Beasley really shined was the combine, where he recorded a 4.53-second 40-yard dash, a 41-inch vertical jump, a 12-foot, 10-inch broad jump, and a 6.91-second 3-cone, all of which are well above average.
2. Randy Gregory, Nebraska
Projection: 32.6 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 6 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Cliff Avril, Leonard Little
Gregory caused some concern when he weighed in at only 235 pounds at the combine (he weighed in at 238 pounds at his pro day), but scouts should not let Gregory's weight dissuade them from taking an otherwise talented player (his positive drug tests at Nebraska and at the combine might scare some teams off, but our model doesn't factor in off-field concerns).
Robert Mathis, Trent Cole, and Leonard Little weighing in at 235, 236 and 237 pounds, respectively. Gregory is an all-around good edge-rusher prospect: he has solid combine numbers, good college sack production, and one of the stronger passes defensed rates in this class.
3. Bud Dupree, Kentucky
Projection: 24.7 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 41 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Will Smith, Michael Johnson
Dupree had a superlative combine that quietly eclipsed the performance put on by Jadeveon Clowney last year. Dupree, who weighed in one pound heavier than Clowney, ran only three-hundredths of a second slower than Clowney but obliterated him on the jumps, besting Clowney's vertical jump by 4.5 inches and his broad jump by 16 inches.
Dupree, however, did not run the 3-cone drill until his pro day, where he recorded a 7.49-second run, which is below average generally and far below expectations for an athlete who is otherwise demonstrably as explosive as Dupree (players with fast 40-yard dash times tend to perform strongly on the other drills as well.) The pattern of Dupree's workouts might suggest he is a straight-line athlete who is too "stiff" to play the position, but other players, such as Smith and Johnson, have recorded similar numbers and had success as NFL pass-rushers.
4. Eli Harold, Virginia
Projection: 24.3 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 31 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Clay Matthews, Jamal Reynolds
Harold's strong point is his good combine workout, which you might have overlooked given the eye-popping performances put up by some of his peers. Harold's production in college was a little below average, which adds up to Harold being a thoroughly average prospect.
5. Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
Projection: 21.1 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 12 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Jermaine Cunningham, Shea McClellin
Fowler's forecast is boosted by his high projected draft position. Otherwise, SackSEER projects Fowler as an excellent candidate to join the ever-growing stable of disappointing Florida Gators edge rushers: Derrick Harvey, Jarvis Moss and Jermaine Cunningham.
Derrick Burgess, and Calvin Pace had some pass-rushing success, but Ray's profile suggests a player who lacks the upside worthy of a pick in the top half of the first round.
Top Sleeper
Davis Tull, Tennessee-Chattanooga
Projection: 11.7 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 110 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Connor Barwin
This year Tull is SackSEER's No. 1 sleeper. He had an amazing set of workouts, recording vertical and broad jumps of 42.5 inches and 11 feet, respectively, at the NFL combine, and running a 4.57-second 40-yard dash at his pro day. Tull faced an inferior level of competition in the FCS Southern Conference, but history teaches us that nearly all late-draft successes at the edge-rusher position come from smaller schools. He projects as the No. 9 pass-rusher in this class, according to our model. That's impressive, given he's viewed as more of a mid- or late-round pick.
That said, Tull is far from a guaranteed draft-day steal. His sack production was good, but it falls short of some of the real standout late-drafted edge-rushers -- such as Jared Allen and Robert Mathis -- and he had only one pass defended in a four-year career, which is a major red flag.
Methodology:
SackSEER is based on a statistical analysis of all of edge rushers drafted in the years 1998-2013, and measures the following:
• The edge rusher's projected draft position. These projections use the rankings from ESPN's Scouts, Inc.;
• An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical jump, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;
• The prospect's score on the 3-cone drill;
• A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect's per game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college;
• The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played; and
• The number of medical redshirts the player either received or was eligible for.
With the 2015 NFL draft quickly approaching, it is time for Football Outsiders' annual SackSEER projections. The SackSEER projections are based on a statistical analysis of the factors that best predict the pass-rushing success of edge rushers (4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers).
SackSEER correctly predicted a number of busts at the edge rusher position, including Dion Jordan, Jarvis Jones, and Courtney Upshaw, and identified both Justin Houston (a third-rounder for Kansas City) and Jamie Collins(taken in the late second round by New England) as significant sleepers.
SackSEER is far from perfect, however. For example, it predicted big things for Cleveland's Barkevious Mingo, who has yet to make a major impact. (For a full explanation of what goes into the SackSEER formula, refer to the methodology at the bottom of the article.)
This year there is considerable uncertainty concerning who will be the first edge rusher selected in the NFL draft. Randy Gregory, Dante Fowler Jr., Shane Ray, or Vic Beasley could all conceivably hear their names called first. SackSEER, however, projects this class as night and day. It sees two of the four as excellent prospects and the other two as highly likely to become busts.
Here's a look at how SackSEER, which projects the number of regular-season sacks that the edge rusher will record over the course of his first five NFL seasons, ranks the top edge rushers in the draft, plus a look at our No. 1 sleeper:
1. Vic Beasley, Clemson
Projection: 34.1 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 25 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Von Miller, Andre Carter
Beasley gives you almost everything you want in an edge-rusher prospect. He was consistently productive in college, recording 32 sacks and nine passes defensed over a four-year career. Where Beasley really shined was the combine, where he recorded a 4.53-second 40-yard dash, a 41-inch vertical jump, a 12-foot, 10-inch broad jump, and a 6.91-second 3-cone, all of which are well above average.
2. Randy Gregory, Nebraska
Projection: 32.6 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 6 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Cliff Avril, Leonard Little
Gregory caused some concern when he weighed in at only 235 pounds at the combine (he weighed in at 238 pounds at his pro day), but scouts should not let Gregory's weight dissuade them from taking an otherwise talented player (his positive drug tests at Nebraska and at the combine might scare some teams off, but our model doesn't factor in off-field concerns).
Robert Mathis, Trent Cole, and Leonard Little weighing in at 235, 236 and 237 pounds, respectively. Gregory is an all-around good edge-rusher prospect: he has solid combine numbers, good college sack production, and one of the stronger passes defensed rates in this class.
3. Bud Dupree, Kentucky
Projection: 24.7 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 41 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Will Smith, Michael Johnson
Dupree had a superlative combine that quietly eclipsed the performance put on by Jadeveon Clowney last year. Dupree, who weighed in one pound heavier than Clowney, ran only three-hundredths of a second slower than Clowney but obliterated him on the jumps, besting Clowney's vertical jump by 4.5 inches and his broad jump by 16 inches.
Dupree, however, did not run the 3-cone drill until his pro day, where he recorded a 7.49-second run, which is below average generally and far below expectations for an athlete who is otherwise demonstrably as explosive as Dupree (players with fast 40-yard dash times tend to perform strongly on the other drills as well.) The pattern of Dupree's workouts might suggest he is a straight-line athlete who is too "stiff" to play the position, but other players, such as Smith and Johnson, have recorded similar numbers and had success as NFL pass-rushers.
4. Eli Harold, Virginia
Projection: 24.3 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 31 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Clay Matthews, Jamal Reynolds
Harold's strong point is his good combine workout, which you might have overlooked given the eye-popping performances put up by some of his peers. Harold's production in college was a little below average, which adds up to Harold being a thoroughly average prospect.
5. Dante Fowler Jr., Florida
Projection: 21.1 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 12 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Jermaine Cunningham, Shea McClellin
Fowler's forecast is boosted by his high projected draft position. Otherwise, SackSEER projects Fowler as an excellent candidate to join the ever-growing stable of disappointing Florida Gators edge rushers: Derrick Harvey, Jarvis Moss and Jermaine Cunningham.
Derrick Burgess, and Calvin Pace had some pass-rushing success, but Ray's profile suggests a player who lacks the upside worthy of a pick in the top half of the first round.
Top Sleeper
Davis Tull, Tennessee-Chattanooga
Projection: 11.7 sacks through Year 5
Scouts, Inc.: No. 110 overall
Similar Historical Prospects: Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Connor Barwin
This year Tull is SackSEER's No. 1 sleeper. He had an amazing set of workouts, recording vertical and broad jumps of 42.5 inches and 11 feet, respectively, at the NFL combine, and running a 4.57-second 40-yard dash at his pro day. Tull faced an inferior level of competition in the FCS Southern Conference, but history teaches us that nearly all late-draft successes at the edge-rusher position come from smaller schools. He projects as the No. 9 pass-rusher in this class, according to our model. That's impressive, given he's viewed as more of a mid- or late-round pick.
That said, Tull is far from a guaranteed draft-day steal. His sack production was good, but it falls short of some of the real standout late-drafted edge-rushers -- such as Jared Allen and Robert Mathis -- and he had only one pass defended in a four-year career, which is a major red flag.
Methodology:
SackSEER is based on a statistical analysis of all of edge rushers drafted in the years 1998-2013, and measures the following:
• The edge rusher's projected draft position. These projections use the rankings from ESPN's Scouts, Inc.;
• An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical jump, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;
• The prospect's score on the 3-cone drill;
• A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect's per game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college;
• The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played; and
• The number of medical redshirts the player either received or was eligible for.
