Recent History Says Half of Last Year’s Playoff Teams Won’t Return. Who’s In/Out?

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AvengerRam

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In 2019, 12 teams went to the playoffs. 6 returned the following season.

In 2020, 14 teams (expanded field) went to the playoffs. 7 returned the following season.

In 2021, 14 teams went to the playoffs. 7 returned the following season.

Last year, the following teams went to the playoffs: KC, BUF, CIN, JAC, LAC, BAL, MIA, PHI, SF, MIN, TB, DAL, NYG, SEA

If the recent pattern holds, which 7 won't return, and who will replace them?
 

Merlin

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I would guess most of the churn is the lower seeds. The teams who have elite QBs in place and solid coaching/roster probably aren't going anywhere. So KC, Buffalo, Cincinnati, SF (outlier due to Ratboy) are all likely to return barring the injury Gods intervening.

I think the Chargers are at risk to fall out. That division gets harder with Asshole Face taking over the Broncos. Vikes and Bucs are both mediocre as fuck and could fall out, though the NFC feels weak in terms of up and comers. Seattle fits that too, if the Rams can compete, otherwise they'll cruise to 2nd in the division and a likely playoff berth. But they have Geno Smith at QB. Reality check feels like it's in the future for them at some point.

NFC East is finally showing a little bit of depth to it. Washington will be at the bottom, Philly at the top, but lots of room I think for surprises.
 

CGI_Ram

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I love this topic and look forward to reading responses.

IN
KC, BUF, CIN, JAC, BAL, PHI, SF, DAL, SEA

OUT
MIN, TB, NYG, MIA, LAC

NEW IN
RAMS, JETS, DEN, DET, NO