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Ranking the 2012 WR Draft Class

Discussion in 'RAMS - NFL TALK' started by bwdenverram, Apr 3, 2012.

  1. bwdenverram Well-Known Member

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    Not sure if this was posted already, but this is kinda whacky. Not sure I get this. Making what would be 6 rounders seem like 1st rounders and vice versa.



    http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7769463/ranking-2012-nfl-draft-top-10-receivers-nfl
     
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  2. -X- I'm the dude, man.

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    Ranking the 2012 WR draft class
    The top 10 wideouts in this year's draft class, according to the metrics
    Updated: April 3, 2012, 2:34 PM ET
    By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

    [​IMG]

    With the NFL on the precipice of what could be the decade of the pass, it's not a surprise that quarterbacks such as Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are garnering the bulk of the draft headlines.

    Quarterbacks can't make it happen without pass-catchers, however, so let's take a closer look at what the metrics have to say about the top 10 wide receivers in this year's draft.

    Each wideout was ranked in the following categories: age, height, weight, 40-yard dash time, overall yards per attempt (YPA), short pass yards per attempt (SYPA), vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) and stretch vertical yards per attempt (SVYPA). (Note: Short passes are aerials thrown 10 yards or less downfield; vertical passes travel 11 or more yards; stretch verticals are thrown 20 or more yards. Each player's metrics are based on a tape review of a minimum of nine 2011 contests against BCS conference-caliber opponents.)

    The players' rankings in each category were then tabulated on a 1-10 scale with the best score getting a rating of 1. The category rankings were then added up and are listed under the ranking points heading (with a lower score being better).

    Now that we have the prelims out of the way, let's take a look at how the rankings turned out.

    1. Stephen Hill

    Birth date: May 1, 1990 (21 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-foot-4, 215 pounds
    40-yard dash time: 4.36
    YPA: 12.0 (43 targets)
    SYPA: 4.0 (13 targets)
    VYPA: 15.5 (30 targets)
    SVYPA: 17.2 (22 targets)

    Ranking points: 27

    Hill is highly rated on many draft boards, but a combination of factors puts him at the top of this ranking chart, factors including his showings in YPA (first), VYPA (second), height (first), 40 time (first) and birth date (third). There is every reason to think he could be just as explosive in the NFL as Georgia Tech predecessor Demaryius Thomas has been, but without the nagging injury issues that have held Thomas back.

    2. Rueben Randle

    Birth date: May 7, 1991 (20 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-3, 210
    40-yard dash: 4.55
    YPA: 10.7 (70 targets)
    SYPA: 7.2 (38 targets)
    VYPA: 14.7 (32 targets)
    SVYPA: 18.6 (17 targets)

    Ranking points: 31

    Randle ranked in the top four in every YPA category and did so in an offense piloted by Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson, two quarterbacks who were so limited that the LSU offensive coaching brain trust never did let them cut loose in the passing game. He also posted these numbers against SEC-caliber competition. Randle is also the second-tallest wideout of this group and is easily the youngest (no other player was born in 1991).

    3. Jarius Wright

    Birth date: Nov. 25, 1989 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 5-10, 182
    40-yard dash: 4.42
    YPA: 10.9 (88 targets)
    SYPA: 6.5 (50 targets)
    VYPA: 16.7 (38 targets)
    SVYPA: 19.0 (23 targets)

    Ranking points: 38

    Wright's speed (he ranked third in the 40-yard dash category) was the primary reason he topped this group in VYPA and was third in SVYPA. He does have some potential roadblocks in that he is the second-lightest and fourth-shortest wide receiver in this comparison, but he did post these figures against SEC-caliber competition, so the positives well outweigh the negatives.

    4 (tie). A.J. Jenkins

    Birth date: Nov. 8, 1990 (21 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-0, 190 pounds
    40-yard dash: 4.39
    YPA: 9.4 (102 targets)
    SYPA: 6.0 (60 targets)
    VYPA: 14.3 (42 targets)
    SVYPA: 16.3 (27 targets)

    Ranking points: 44

    The main issue in Jenkins' relatively low-ranking points total is that he's here because he ranked second in both the 40-yard dash and age categories. He ranked no higher than fifth in any of the YPA categories, and those numbers were actually skewed by the 90 yards he gained against blown coverages last year. Jenkins is also the third-shortest and third-lightest wideout in this analysis. Put it all together and he might not be as good as the overall points suggest.

    4 (tie). Kendall Wright

    Birth date: Nov. 12, 1989 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 5-10, 196
    40-yard dash: 4.61
    YPA: 11.4 (100 targets)
    SYPA: 8.1 (55 targets)
    VYPA: 15.4 (45 targets)
    SVYPA: 20.7 (19 targets)

    Ranking points: 44

    Wright ranked third or higher in every YPA category but still has a few concerns. A review of Griffin's numbers showed that his vertical metrics were actually better on passes to other Baylor receivers than they were on passes to Wright, so Wright may have benefited more from RG3 than vice versa. Wright is also the shortest and slowest wideout of this group (though he plays faster than his 40 time), as well as the second-oldest and fourth-lightest.

    6 (tie). Justin Blackmon

    Birth date: Jan. 9, 1990 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-1, 207
    40-yard dash time: 4.46
    YPA: 9.0 (139 targets)
    SYPA: 8.1 (85 targets)
    VYPA: 10.6 (54 targets)
    SVYPA: 8.9 (20 targets)

    Ranking points: 47

    Blackmon is rated first on nearly every wide receiver draft list, but check out his multitude of negatives. He ranked seventh in YPA, eighth in VYPA and dead last in SVYPA of this group. He is in the middle of the pack in height and weight (sixth in both categories), and his 40-yard dash time ranked fourth.

    Blackmon's 2011 totals were much worse than his 2010 totals, and the rest of the Oklahoma State pass-catchers had numbers that were roughly equal to Blackmon's this past year. He was kept in check when covered by Texas Longhorns star cornerback Carrington Byndom this past season and, as good as Byndom is, the NFL will give Blackmon that caliber of competition in nearly every game.

    6 (tie). Michael Floyd

    Birth date: Nov. 27, 1989 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-3, 220
    40-yard dash: 4.47
    YPA: 7.3 (136 targets)
    SYPA: 7.1 (87 targets)
    VYPA: 7.8 (49 targets)
    SVYPA: 9.6 (30 targets)

    Ranking points: 47

    Floyd, in many ways, had by far the most disappointing set of numbers in this entire analysis. He ranked dead last in YPA and VYPA and was next to last in SVYPA. The only saving graces for him were his showings in height (ranked second) and weight (ranked first). When his incredibly low on-field production levels are added to the multiple off-field issues he had in his Notre Dame career, it means he brings a ton of risk to whatever team ends up drafting him.

    6 (tie). Marvin McNutt

    Birth date: July 4, 1989 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-3, 216
    40-yard dash: 4.54
    YPA: 9.5 (99 targets)
    SYPA: 6.3 (55 targets)
    VYPA: 13.5 (44 targets)
    SVYPA: 9.8 (16 targets)

    Ranking points: 47

    The quandary in analyzing McNutt is that there really wasn't an area he excelled in. His best ranking in the YPA totals was fifth and his rankings got worse the further downfield the passes were thrown (seventh in VYPA, eighth in SVYPA). He has favorable height and weight (second in both categories), but he ranked seventh in the 40-yard dash and is the oldest wideout in this comparison.

    9. Alshon Jeffery

    Birth date: Feb. 14, 1990 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 6-3, 216
    40-yard dash: 4.51
    YPA: 7.9 (69 targets)
    SYPA: 5.6 (29 targets)
    VYPA: 9.5 (40 targets)
    SVYPA: 12.6 (23 targets)

    Ranking points: 48

    Jeffery's backers might point out that his low rankings in the YPA totals (ninth in three categories) were a direct result of the quarterbacking woes that beset the South Carolina offense this past season.

    The problem in taking that tack is that the Gamecocks' four leading underclassmen pass-catchers last season tallied a composite 9.8 YPA that was nearly two yards higher than Jeffery's. South Carolina's field generals certainly didn't help Jeffery, but if he was truly an elite receiver he would have posted better totals.

    10. Joe Adams

    Birth date: Nov. 22, 1989 (22 years old)
    Height/weight: 5-11, 179
    40-yard dash: 4.55
    YPA: 8.5 (52 targets)
    SYPA: 5.7 (35 targets)
    VYPA: 14.2 (17 targets)
    SVYPA: 21.1 (7 targets)

    Ranking points: 59

    Adams' No. 1 ranking in SVYPA is more than offset by his subpar performance in overall YPA (ranked eighth), SYPA (eighth), height (ninth), weight (10th), 40-yard dash time (ninth) and age (ninth).
     
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  3. -X- I'm the dude, man.

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    Gotta admit - that's a pretty interesting way of breaking down the receivers. But you know what? All of it could mean nothing when they hit the field in the pros. As Greg Cosell constantly points out, success is predominantly determined by how these guys fit in their schemes, and who their QBs are. Lots of factors go into determining their success outside of these sabermetrics.
     
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  4. bwdenverram Well-Known Member

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    Very true X. Just odd that they basically rank JB as "average" at best. Time will tell of course, but I think I'll take my chances with Blackmon :)
     
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  5. -X- I'm the dude, man.

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  6. DR RAM Rams Lifer

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    Mayock has a man crush on Floyd. He does their games, and he has the luxury of not caring about Floyd's much publicized alcohol problems. The Ram's, because of Leonard Little, in part, have to consider this.
     
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  7. bwdenverram Well-Known Member

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    I don't claim to be any type of football expert in judging players, but I've watched all the youtube highlights on Blackmon and Floyd and to be honest, for all the hype of Floyd he always seems to be pretty well covered and not very physical. I'm not suggesting he won't be a good receiver but when I watch JB I see a lot more moves to get YAC and I did not see as many seperation concerns. I guess I'm just going with my gut on this one and something just tells me JB is going to be a very good pro. He just has the overall makeup (JMO) of course.
     
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  8. DR RAM Rams Lifer

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    The chart makes me feel better about Hill, who I have a man crush on. Very little reps, but he looked spectacular to me, and that's why I want him in the 2nd round. I really don't know if he will be there though.
     
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  9. Angry Ram aka Captain RAmerica aka the OG Rammer

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    Analyzation overload!

    :dangit: :dangit: :dangit: :dangit:
     
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  10. libertadrocks Well-Known Member

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    Interesting ranking.

    Have they done this in previous years, based on the same metrics?

    Id be interest to see if there is any correlation between these rankings and NFL performance.
     
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  11. Yamahopper Well-Known Member

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    I have seen a lot of things ranked many different ways, but never quite like this.

    At first I thought it was scheme dependent. Then I thought it was QB driven. Then I just scratched my head.

    But what interests me is Hill and Randle are my 2 favorite WR this year because their upside would be as a true #1. And this is how they're ranked here by a different means.
     
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  12. superfan24 Well-Known Member

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    No disrespect, but maybe because he shrugs off the alcohol problems is because he is around Mike A LOT and speaks to Brian Kelly monthly. I will repeat that Floyd's off the field problems are done with. Could be wrong, but does not seem like Mike fakes it.
     
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  13. DR RAM Rams Lifer

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    Alcoholism is a lifelong problem, just ask a family member of an alcoholic. What disturbs me is why is he like that, what makes him do that. How can you honestly say they are over, do you have insight that we don't know about? One clean summer doesn't make him clean...did he just not get caught? Who knows, but that is not the only reason for me. It's well documented how I feel about him as a player.

    I'm rating him as a top 10 skill player, and I don't see it.
     
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  14. superfan24 Well-Known Member

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    I realize that as alcoholism is prevalent on my dad's side of the family. Just reporting from many things I have heard from people around him.
    Agree to disagree I guess.
     
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  15. DR RAM Rams Lifer

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    No trying to break your balls, but who? I'd like to hear specifics. Alcoholism is pretty easy to hide.

    Let's get back to the player alone. Do you think he's a top 10 player in this draft?
     
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  16. superfan24 Well-Known Member

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    I have friends that have siblings at ND who saw Mike and the way he was on campus before and then after the DUI. That's what I got besides hearing constantly from Mike's teammates and coaches that he has given up drinking and changed his diet. But you are right the only person that truly does know is Mike.

    ok players YES I believe he is a top 10 player based on his play at Notre Dame plus his work at the combine. Although different type of WR's I think he is as good a value as Blackmon. I'd say 7-13 is his range in the draft at the moment.
     
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  17. DR RAM Rams Lifer

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    Thanks :ww:
     
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  18. RamFan503 Grill and Brew Master

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    Right there with you Doc.
     
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  19. JdashSTL Well-Known Member

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    Doug Farrar on Blackmon:

    I then asked him about Blackmons after the catch, YAC, because thats something that impresses me about him:

     
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  20. libertadrocks Well-Known Member

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    I'm with Farrar. Blackmon is a better route runner than Floyd which allows him to get that short space separation. I also agree that YAC is largely due to the system. OSU spread the field so much there were few defenders close to Blackmon. However Blackmon is more physical and has shown the ability to break tackles. You have to give him credit for that.

    Those are the two areas(routes, strength) I think Blackmon is superior to Floyd. Floyd isnt a slouch when it comes to route running tho. Floyd is a better run blocker and has a better frame.
     
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