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Jonathan Newton/Getty ImagesMike Shanahan, 34-38 overall as coach of the Redskins, is unlikely to be back next season.
Mike Shanahan coached two Super Bowl winners in Denver before taking the Washington Redskins to the playoffs last season. Robert Griffin III challenged Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson for NFL rookie honors.
It should be nearly impossible to screw up an alliance as promising as Shanahan-Griffin once appeared in Washington, even without the draft capital used to acquire Griffin or the salary-cap space lost via league sanction. But here are the Redskins with a 3-11 record and more questions than the Wonderlic.
Is Shanahan down to his final two games as coach? What does the future hold for Griffin and his late-season replacement, Kirk Cousins? If Shanahan is out, who will team owner Daniel Snyder enlist to fix Griffin and the organization as a whole? And given the drama that has surrounded the team through much of Snyder's tenure, how many top candidates would even want to become the Redskins' seventh head coach since Snyder purchased the team in 1999?
"Washington is a scary one because there is a culture of unrest and problems," one potential candidate said. "I don't know if it's Snyder or others making decisions, but there is too much going on."
The sentiment is understandable, but a current head coach thought the job still held appeal. "Snyder and [general manager] Bruce Allen are going to let you coach the team," the coach said. "I believe that. I have reservations about the quality of some of the assistants on the current staff, but they have some players."
These are the sorts of competing views that NFL insiders offered when asked to assess potential coaching vacancies around the league. The head coach and candidate joined a general manager, personnel director, longtime agent and a quarterback in ranking nine potential openings from a candidate's perspective. Two clear favorites emerged along with a fuller picture of the landscape. We rank the potential openings from worst to first.
9. Oakland Raiders
Owner Mark Davis recently pledged patience as the Raiders finish their second season with Dennis Allen as head coach. That would mark a change from the recent past. Allen is the team's seventh head coach over the past decade. But the feeling among the insiders we consulted was that Oakland was by far the least desirable situation among those considered most likely to open up.
"Your owner does not have big money, the team may move and now it appears as though in the AFC West, you are pretty far behind all the other teams," the agent said.
The Raiders head toward the 2014 offseason with more projected salary-cap space than any team in the league. That means they'll be in position to upgrade their roster after parting with quarterback Carson Palmer and others during a roster purge. But Davis has very little track record. Will he pay to make the necessary upgrades? Is he focused on the right things or more concerned about his image, as the case appeared to be when he reportedly fired the team's public relations director following publication of a profile he found unflattering? And what about the recent NFL.com report suggesting the Raiders haven't extended contracts for Allen's staff?
"What I'm going to do is empower the head coach to hire his staff, the best possible staff that he can hire," general manager Reggie McKenzie said when Allen was hired. "The head coach will have the right to hire any coach that he wants."
Speculation over Allen's future after less than two seasons stems in part from the news about his staff's uncertain status. On the field, the Raiders have beaten five teams while going 8-22 during their first two seasons under Allen, all with one of the least talented rosters around. They need help just about everywhere.
8. Dallas Cowboys
One line of thinking here says owner Jerry Jones will retain Jason Garrett because Jones prefers a weaker head coach in place so he can be the focal point in a star-driven organization. "I could not work for Jerry," the head coach from another team said. "Look which owners have made the most changes in the last 5-10 years."
The Cowboys have had three head coaches over the past decade. Two of them got at least four seasons. The third, Wade Phillips, got three. That's not an inordinate amount of turnover by NFL standards. But Jones was behind other changes, including decisions to change the offensive play-caller and fire coordinator Rob Ryan this past offseason. Neither decision has produced the desired results.
"They have a quarterback," the agent said, "but basically your co-head coach and GM is your owner. His press conferences probably will be more well-attended than yours. You will spend a lot of time battling his press conference and his own radio show. That sucks a lot of energy."
The No. 8 ranking seems too low on the surface and it seemed low to the potential head coaching candidate as well. The candidate said he's had dealings with Cowboys brass and knows ownership wants to win. "Dallas has talent," the candidate said, "but there are some aging players like DeMarcus Ware and they are into those guys for a lot of money. Where will you get replacements? Not in free agency because their cap situation is so bad. You have to get them as young free agents or draft picks, and that is hit or miss."
Bill Parcells made it to the Hall of Fame, but he couldn't make it work in Dallas. What does that say? I've long thought Tony Romo was too good to consistently lose the big games forever. But the quarterback consulted for this piece predicted the futility would continue because Romo's mindset before the snap is to make big plays, not manage situations.
"At his age and with the amount of money he has made, nobody can coach him out of it," the QB said. "When you watch him in two-minute situations, you are thinking check-down, just peek and see if the shot is there. What does he do? He'll throw it off his back foot to a guy right in front of his face."
7. Washington Redskins
If Shanahan is out, he would not be the first strong, experienced head coach to leave Washington with a disappointing record. Marty Schottenheimer lasted one season and went 8-8. Joe Gibbs retired after going 30-34. Shanahan, 34-38 with Washington to this point, could be headed for the exit after four seasons. The report suggesting Shanahan nearly quit last season amid frustrations over Snyder's relationship with Griffin added high intrigue.
"Owner dysfunction and front-office dysfunction, quarterback dysfunction and a tough media town there with a lot of media scrutiny," the agent said. "How fixable? I would say it's as fixable as Al Davis might have been in his later years, which is probably not very fixable. Griffin has his own issues and needs to be reined in and coached. A head coach has to come in there and coach his owner and his quarterback, both of whom are strong personalities. And of the three, the new head coach, if he is not a gigantic name, he will come in with less star power than the owner and the quarterback."
The GM put the Redskins among his top three teams on this list because Snyder is willing to spend money. The GM also thought Griffin would succeed in the end. A personnel director ranked the Redskins in his bottom two, ahead of only the Cowboys. The director liked some of the Redskins' personnel on defense and thought Griffin would improve in 2014. He thought the team needed an offensive-minded head coach or a "great" offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach working in combination. Like just about everyone else, the director thought a coach needed to "rein in" Griffin. The quarterback we consulted was particularly harsh concerning Griffin. He made good points, but in my experience, some QBs can be overly critical when they don't think a peer is approaching the job right.
"The experiences RG III has had will be tough to overcome," the QB said. "He is young, but he has been the most important person in the franchise and the freedom he has, that will be tough to reverse. That locker room is peeled in two. You have to find someone who can devise plays in the read option and also believe in it. Any quarterback who has watched their film, not one of them is going to say, 'Yeah, that guy will be good.' He is not accurate. I'm not sure what their reads are, but when I see a route combination on film, I know where the ball is supposed to go. Everyone does. He doesn't know what he is doing more than half time time. Watch Kirk Cousins and he knows."
6. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings ranked seventh on multiple ballots. They're unsettled at quarterback. Their owners, though seemingly willing to spend, don't have much of a track record yet. And while the team secured a new stadium, the Vikings will play outdoors at the University of Minnesota over the next two seasons. That last part is not very appealing on the surface, but there is precedent for a team landing a top-flight coach while transitioning between stadiums. Mike Holmgren left Green Bay for Seattle in 1999, just as the Seahawks were planning to play outdoors at the University of Washington while their stadium was under construction in 2000 and 2001. On the plus side, Minnesota should have cap space.
"In Minnesota, you don't have a quarterback and your owner just lost some sort of fraud lawsuit, and that team, there is a bad vibe there," the agent said. "The will need some overhaul. They probably move on from Jared Allen. Adrian Peterson has rattled cages about a possible trade. Your team leaders at the moment don't seem all that committed."
Peterson tends to entertain the premise when answering questions, so when he said he'd thought about playing in his home state of Texas, it did not necessarily reflect a lack of commitment. But the concerns over ownership could require a candidate to do his homework. "They have uncertainty of ownership and they are an older team in some areas," was how the GM put it. But the quarterback we consulted ranked the Vikings second. The personnel director had them fourth.
"You can build around a running game," the QB said. "Those receivers are very talented. I've been watching [Cordarrelle] Patterson and he'll be a really good player. They have a good tight end. No. 17 [Jarius Wright] is really good on film. Their offensive line is pretty good. That team hasn't had a QB since one year of Brett Favre. If they get someone to go in there and play well at that position, no one can predict what that will do for a team. Same for Houston."
The personnel director thought Peterson's presence could make an average quarterback look good. "If I'm an offensive-minded head coach, that would be an ideal destination," the director said. "But they do need a quarterback who is a good manager and will not lose the game for you. Matt Cassel has done that the last few weeks. He is not losing it for them and he makes the plays he needs to make. You want the top guy, but look at Kansas City. They got Alex Smith and he will not lose it for them."
5. Tennessee Titans
The situation in Tennessee is a little tougher to read after longtime owner Bud Adams died during the season. Adams' grandson, Kenneth Adams IV, remains an unknown from the outside, at least. "I've heard mixed things on the new guy," the potential candidate said. "The old owner was wacky. They had issues with general managers there, although the new one, I've heard good things. I think with where they are, I think you could be successful there."
Much remains unknown. "They could be sold in the next 18 months and then you don't even know what you've got," the agent said. The personnel director said he thought the new owner would be willing to provide the necessary resources while letting the football people handle personnel and coaching without interference. "They want the final product," he said. "They are not trying to put themselves out there."
We know this: The quarterback situation is unsettled with Jake Locker coming off a serious foot injury following a somewhat promising but ultimately unconvincing run as the starter. Financial considerations call into question running back Chris Johnson's future with the team. Johnson is 28 and scheduled to earn $8 million in 2014. No team in the league is older than the Titans at running back in terms of average age for the position. The new coach would have to figure out whether the offense can succeed without a major overhaul.
"The only problem is, the quarterback has been unsteady, but they have skill players, a solid offensive line and some really good players on defense," the personnel director said.
4. New York Jets
The Jets were third on the agent's list of potential destinations, the highest ranking they received. They were as low as seventh in the estimation of others around the league. It was tough to differentiate between some of the teams in the middle. "With the Jets, you know you have an owner with deep pockets and even though they are in a tough division, they have a very good group of defensive players and a GM with good experience from some other places," the agent said.
GM John Idzik is finishing his first season on the job. He has ties to Seattle most recently and Arizona before that. Those ties could make Seattle's Tom Cable or former Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt, now the offensive coordinator in San Diego, logical candidates if Idzik wanted someone with head coaching experience. Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn also have ties to Idzik. Their profiles are rising given Seattle's recent success. Quinn worked for the Jets previously.
"If it's me making the hire, I'd go more with an offensive-minded head coach because I think that is where you have to be creative with a young quarterback who may or may not be the guy," the personnel director said. "Geno Smith has the tools. You need skill players and the offensive line. There is more work to be done there than in some of the other places. Any time you go to New York, you need a coach who is confident and believes in his stuff. You need big shoulders to get through the highs and lows of playing there."
Smith was a second-round choice and the first quarterback selected with Idzik running the personnel department. That doesn't necessarily mean the team is locked into him as its future starter. With 10 touchdowns and 21 interceptions, Smith hasn't looked the part. But he's also playing on a team without appealing weapons. It's a much different situation than the one Mark Sanchez walked into as a first-round choice in 2009. The quarterback we consulted for this piece thought Smith was in a difficult spot as a young player walking into the toughest market for scrutiny.
"The Jets would be way low on my list with a commitment to a quarterback who is not an NFL quarterback, in my opinion," the QB said. "I'm not saying that because of the lack of success. He has average talent. New York is not the place you want to figure out who you are. They really need to bring in a veteran quarterback, but you would need someone who wants to come there. They have no wide receivers, no line. No smart veteran quarterback would go there."
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The head coach we consulted had seen the Buccaneers on film and loved their personnel. He used the word "loaded" to describe a defense featuring Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, Mark Barron and Darrelle Revis. He also thought the offensive line had talent, and quarterback Mike Glennon had promise. For that reason, this coach ranked Tampa Bay third.
People I've spoken with around the league think Greg Schiano will probably keep his job after a rocky start to the season. Player sources said Schiano started to win over the team after backing off some of the college tactics that didn't go over well with pro players. That included waving off an edict requiring players standing on the sideline to wear their helmets, keep their chin straps snapped and place their hands on their hips. The thinking is that NFL players will do just about anything that helps the team win. It's the silly stuff that turns them off.
If the Tampa Bay job does open up, the agent we consulted warned of hidden headaches. "You've got an owner with meddling sons, a fan base that is hit-and-miss in terms of their support, a quarterback situation still somewhat up in the air," the agent said. "The sons, they are playing fantasy football with real people, their own employees. It is very well known in the industry. They can insist certain people play and certain things be done. It is Jerry Jones light. They have some good young talent there. It's a place that they got over the hump, they started winning, they won a Super Bowl, but even with all that, they still haven't quite established a winning culture that can transcend the coach."
The agent also thought Schiano would keep his job. "When they were 0-8, he personally started changing his own methods because he knew it was really about his job," the agent said. "Now, he probably feels less threatened. They generally don't like paying off contracts as well. I would agree that he is less endangered. I think there will be a couple assistant coaches who get replaced."
2. Detroit Lions
There's a huge gap between the top two teams and the others in the eyes of league insiders. Detroit and Houston finished among the top two on just about every ballot. Both organizations project stability. Both are known for providing all the resources coaches covet. There's no questioning the Lions' talent.
"They have a QB, they have Megatron, a running back, Ndamukong Suh," the GM said. "You just need to improve the back half of your defense. [Team president] Tom Lewand is good to work for. There is an ability from a coaching perspective to probably get the personnel you want. Their ownership is outstanding. There is a degree of patience still."
Ownership previously stood by Matt Millen as its top football decision maker for seven losing seasons. Current coach Jim Schwartz has been on the job for five seasons, returning in 2013 after going 4-12 last season. Patience can be frustrating for fans, but coaching candidates covet stability.
"The No. 1 place for me would be Detroit with William Clay Ford as your owner," the agent said. An NFL team exec put it this way: "The Fords do things first class behind the scenes and they give you time. Schwartz could have been fired before. They have a great facility, the stadium is nice. The Lions appear to be a leader short of coming through."
That lack of leadership can be difficult to quantify. One coach for another team grimaced when he saw Baltimore's Justin Tucker convert a 61-yard field goal to beat Detroit on Monday night. Watching the Lions lose wasn't the hard part. The coach didn't like the way Detroit, with a formidable defensive front, failed to threaten the kick after a bad snap disrupted Tucker and prevented him from making full contact. The quarterback consulted for this piece thought the Lions could win a championship with Matthew Stafford, but only if a new coach instills discipline. "Players there say there are no repercussions," the QB said. "If they could bring discipline and structure there, they have a chance."
The personnel director thought the Lions' personnel was not only good but versatile enough to succeed if a new coach installed different schemes. "They have all the pieces," the director said. "The secondary needs to get shored up, but with the right coach there, maybe you go with an offensive-minded guy with a good defensive coordinator."
1. Houston Texans
The Texans ranked first or second on every ballot even though the team has lost 12 consecutive games following a 2-0 start. "With the Texans, you have a great owner in Bob McNair," an executive from another team said. "He is involved, but they are first class. They do things the right way. They have all the resources." Coach Gary Kubiak lasted seven-plus seasons and was let go only after the team spiraled out of contention against all expectations, with Matt Schaub improbably becoming unviable as a starting quarterback.
NFL teams spend millions on players, but when coaches need something as seemingly insignificant as, say, a printer to produce sharper photos for reviewing formations on the sideline, sometimes the money can be tough to come by -- even for a winning organization. That is not the case in a place such as Houston. And with Rick Smith expected to remain in the role as GM, there figures to be stability and continuity.
"It starts from the top of the organization, which is solid and sound," the GM said. "Rick is a good GM to work with. They do have talent there. They get a high pick and will have a chance to get a franchise quarterback."
McNair has indicated the team likes its personnel and expects to win again quickly.
"It's important to know the philosophy of the personnel department," the candidate said. "How are you building the team? Free agency? The draft? Are you willing to be aggressive to get players? Will you get players over 30 to help you for a year or two, or are you looking to go young and build for the future? A big thing is the GM and how the personnel decisions are made within the building and what is the philosophy."
That part is in order for any coach taking over the Texans.
"Houston would be No. 2 behind Detroit on my list," the personnel director said. "They have skill players offensively. Andre Johnson is a heckuva player. The young kid out of Clemson (DeAndre Hopkins) has done a nice job. They have two tight ends who can play, and a great defensive player in J.J. Watt They have an owner who wants to win and a ton of resources with all the facilities. They are willing to do what you need to do to get better in free agency. They have shown a commitment to the draft."
Mike Shanahan coached two Super Bowl winners in Denver before taking the Washington Redskins to the playoffs last season. Robert Griffin III challenged Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson for NFL rookie honors.
It should be nearly impossible to screw up an alliance as promising as Shanahan-Griffin once appeared in Washington, even without the draft capital used to acquire Griffin or the salary-cap space lost via league sanction. But here are the Redskins with a 3-11 record and more questions than the Wonderlic.
Is Shanahan down to his final two games as coach? What does the future hold for Griffin and his late-season replacement, Kirk Cousins? If Shanahan is out, who will team owner Daniel Snyder enlist to fix Griffin and the organization as a whole? And given the drama that has surrounded the team through much of Snyder's tenure, how many top candidates would even want to become the Redskins' seventh head coach since Snyder purchased the team in 1999?
"Washington is a scary one because there is a culture of unrest and problems," one potential candidate said. "I don't know if it's Snyder or others making decisions, but there is too much going on."
The sentiment is understandable, but a current head coach thought the job still held appeal. "Snyder and [general manager] Bruce Allen are going to let you coach the team," the coach said. "I believe that. I have reservations about the quality of some of the assistants on the current staff, but they have some players."
These are the sorts of competing views that NFL insiders offered when asked to assess potential coaching vacancies around the league. The head coach and candidate joined a general manager, personnel director, longtime agent and a quarterback in ranking nine potential openings from a candidate's perspective. Two clear favorites emerged along with a fuller picture of the landscape. We rank the potential openings from worst to first.
Owner Mark Davis recently pledged patience as the Raiders finish their second season with Dennis Allen as head coach. That would mark a change from the recent past. Allen is the team's seventh head coach over the past decade. But the feeling among the insiders we consulted was that Oakland was by far the least desirable situation among those considered most likely to open up.
"Your owner does not have big money, the team may move and now it appears as though in the AFC West, you are pretty far behind all the other teams," the agent said.
The Raiders head toward the 2014 offseason with more projected salary-cap space than any team in the league. That means they'll be in position to upgrade their roster after parting with quarterback Carson Palmer and others during a roster purge. But Davis has very little track record. Will he pay to make the necessary upgrades? Is he focused on the right things or more concerned about his image, as the case appeared to be when he reportedly fired the team's public relations director following publication of a profile he found unflattering? And what about the recent NFL.com report suggesting the Raiders haven't extended contracts for Allen's staff?
"What I'm going to do is empower the head coach to hire his staff, the best possible staff that he can hire," general manager Reggie McKenzie said when Allen was hired. "The head coach will have the right to hire any coach that he wants."
Speculation over Allen's future after less than two seasons stems in part from the news about his staff's uncertain status. On the field, the Raiders have beaten five teams while going 8-22 during their first two seasons under Allen, all with one of the least talented rosters around. They need help just about everywhere.
One line of thinking here says owner Jerry Jones will retain Jason Garrett because Jones prefers a weaker head coach in place so he can be the focal point in a star-driven organization. "I could not work for Jerry," the head coach from another team said. "Look which owners have made the most changes in the last 5-10 years."
The Cowboys have had three head coaches over the past decade. Two of them got at least four seasons. The third, Wade Phillips, got three. That's not an inordinate amount of turnover by NFL standards. But Jones was behind other changes, including decisions to change the offensive play-caller and fire coordinator Rob Ryan this past offseason. Neither decision has produced the desired results.
"They have a quarterback," the agent said, "but basically your co-head coach and GM is your owner. His press conferences probably will be more well-attended than yours. You will spend a lot of time battling his press conference and his own radio show. That sucks a lot of energy."
The No. 8 ranking seems too low on the surface and it seemed low to the potential head coaching candidate as well. The candidate said he's had dealings with Cowboys brass and knows ownership wants to win. "Dallas has talent," the candidate said, "but there are some aging players like DeMarcus Ware and they are into those guys for a lot of money. Where will you get replacements? Not in free agency because their cap situation is so bad. You have to get them as young free agents or draft picks, and that is hit or miss."
Bill Parcells made it to the Hall of Fame, but he couldn't make it work in Dallas. What does that say? I've long thought Tony Romo was too good to consistently lose the big games forever. But the quarterback consulted for this piece predicted the futility would continue because Romo's mindset before the snap is to make big plays, not manage situations.
"At his age and with the amount of money he has made, nobody can coach him out of it," the QB said. "When you watch him in two-minute situations, you are thinking check-down, just peek and see if the shot is there. What does he do? He'll throw it off his back foot to a guy right in front of his face."
If Shanahan is out, he would not be the first strong, experienced head coach to leave Washington with a disappointing record. Marty Schottenheimer lasted one season and went 8-8. Joe Gibbs retired after going 30-34. Shanahan, 34-38 with Washington to this point, could be headed for the exit after four seasons. The report suggesting Shanahan nearly quit last season amid frustrations over Snyder's relationship with Griffin added high intrigue.
"Owner dysfunction and front-office dysfunction, quarterback dysfunction and a tough media town there with a lot of media scrutiny," the agent said. "How fixable? I would say it's as fixable as Al Davis might have been in his later years, which is probably not very fixable. Griffin has his own issues and needs to be reined in and coached. A head coach has to come in there and coach his owner and his quarterback, both of whom are strong personalities. And of the three, the new head coach, if he is not a gigantic name, he will come in with less star power than the owner and the quarterback."
The GM put the Redskins among his top three teams on this list because Snyder is willing to spend money. The GM also thought Griffin would succeed in the end. A personnel director ranked the Redskins in his bottom two, ahead of only the Cowboys. The director liked some of the Redskins' personnel on defense and thought Griffin would improve in 2014. He thought the team needed an offensive-minded head coach or a "great" offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach working in combination. Like just about everyone else, the director thought a coach needed to "rein in" Griffin. The quarterback we consulted was particularly harsh concerning Griffin. He made good points, but in my experience, some QBs can be overly critical when they don't think a peer is approaching the job right.
"The experiences RG III has had will be tough to overcome," the QB said. "He is young, but he has been the most important person in the franchise and the freedom he has, that will be tough to reverse. That locker room is peeled in two. You have to find someone who can devise plays in the read option and also believe in it. Any quarterback who has watched their film, not one of them is going to say, 'Yeah, that guy will be good.' He is not accurate. I'm not sure what their reads are, but when I see a route combination on film, I know where the ball is supposed to go. Everyone does. He doesn't know what he is doing more than half time time. Watch Kirk Cousins and he knows."
The Vikings ranked seventh on multiple ballots. They're unsettled at quarterback. Their owners, though seemingly willing to spend, don't have much of a track record yet. And while the team secured a new stadium, the Vikings will play outdoors at the University of Minnesota over the next two seasons. That last part is not very appealing on the surface, but there is precedent for a team landing a top-flight coach while transitioning between stadiums. Mike Holmgren left Green Bay for Seattle in 1999, just as the Seahawks were planning to play outdoors at the University of Washington while their stadium was under construction in 2000 and 2001. On the plus side, Minnesota should have cap space.
"In Minnesota, you don't have a quarterback and your owner just lost some sort of fraud lawsuit, and that team, there is a bad vibe there," the agent said. "The will need some overhaul. They probably move on from Jared Allen. Adrian Peterson has rattled cages about a possible trade. Your team leaders at the moment don't seem all that committed."
Peterson tends to entertain the premise when answering questions, so when he said he'd thought about playing in his home state of Texas, it did not necessarily reflect a lack of commitment. But the concerns over ownership could require a candidate to do his homework. "They have uncertainty of ownership and they are an older team in some areas," was how the GM put it. But the quarterback we consulted ranked the Vikings second. The personnel director had them fourth.
"You can build around a running game," the QB said. "Those receivers are very talented. I've been watching [Cordarrelle] Patterson and he'll be a really good player. They have a good tight end. No. 17 [Jarius Wright] is really good on film. Their offensive line is pretty good. That team hasn't had a QB since one year of Brett Favre. If they get someone to go in there and play well at that position, no one can predict what that will do for a team. Same for Houston."
The personnel director thought Peterson's presence could make an average quarterback look good. "If I'm an offensive-minded head coach, that would be an ideal destination," the director said. "But they do need a quarterback who is a good manager and will not lose the game for you. Matt Cassel has done that the last few weeks. He is not losing it for them and he makes the plays he needs to make. You want the top guy, but look at Kansas City. They got Alex Smith and he will not lose it for them."
The situation in Tennessee is a little tougher to read after longtime owner Bud Adams died during the season. Adams' grandson, Kenneth Adams IV, remains an unknown from the outside, at least. "I've heard mixed things on the new guy," the potential candidate said. "The old owner was wacky. They had issues with general managers there, although the new one, I've heard good things. I think with where they are, I think you could be successful there."
Much remains unknown. "They could be sold in the next 18 months and then you don't even know what you've got," the agent said. The personnel director said he thought the new owner would be willing to provide the necessary resources while letting the football people handle personnel and coaching without interference. "They want the final product," he said. "They are not trying to put themselves out there."
We know this: The quarterback situation is unsettled with Jake Locker coming off a serious foot injury following a somewhat promising but ultimately unconvincing run as the starter. Financial considerations call into question running back Chris Johnson's future with the team. Johnson is 28 and scheduled to earn $8 million in 2014. No team in the league is older than the Titans at running back in terms of average age for the position. The new coach would have to figure out whether the offense can succeed without a major overhaul.
"The only problem is, the quarterback has been unsteady, but they have skill players, a solid offensive line and some really good players on defense," the personnel director said.
The Jets were third on the agent's list of potential destinations, the highest ranking they received. They were as low as seventh in the estimation of others around the league. It was tough to differentiate between some of the teams in the middle. "With the Jets, you know you have an owner with deep pockets and even though they are in a tough division, they have a very good group of defensive players and a GM with good experience from some other places," the agent said.
GM John Idzik is finishing his first season on the job. He has ties to Seattle most recently and Arizona before that. Those ties could make Seattle's Tom Cable or former Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt, now the offensive coordinator in San Diego, logical candidates if Idzik wanted someone with head coaching experience. Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn also have ties to Idzik. Their profiles are rising given Seattle's recent success. Quinn worked for the Jets previously.
"If it's me making the hire, I'd go more with an offensive-minded head coach because I think that is where you have to be creative with a young quarterback who may or may not be the guy," the personnel director said. "Geno Smith has the tools. You need skill players and the offensive line. There is more work to be done there than in some of the other places. Any time you go to New York, you need a coach who is confident and believes in his stuff. You need big shoulders to get through the highs and lows of playing there."
Smith was a second-round choice and the first quarterback selected with Idzik running the personnel department. That doesn't necessarily mean the team is locked into him as its future starter. With 10 touchdowns and 21 interceptions, Smith hasn't looked the part. But he's also playing on a team without appealing weapons. It's a much different situation than the one Mark Sanchez walked into as a first-round choice in 2009. The quarterback we consulted for this piece thought Smith was in a difficult spot as a young player walking into the toughest market for scrutiny.
"The Jets would be way low on my list with a commitment to a quarterback who is not an NFL quarterback, in my opinion," the QB said. "I'm not saying that because of the lack of success. He has average talent. New York is not the place you want to figure out who you are. They really need to bring in a veteran quarterback, but you would need someone who wants to come there. They have no wide receivers, no line. No smart veteran quarterback would go there."
The head coach we consulted had seen the Buccaneers on film and loved their personnel. He used the word "loaded" to describe a defense featuring Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, Mark Barron and Darrelle Revis. He also thought the offensive line had talent, and quarterback Mike Glennon had promise. For that reason, this coach ranked Tampa Bay third.
People I've spoken with around the league think Greg Schiano will probably keep his job after a rocky start to the season. Player sources said Schiano started to win over the team after backing off some of the college tactics that didn't go over well with pro players. That included waving off an edict requiring players standing on the sideline to wear their helmets, keep their chin straps snapped and place their hands on their hips. The thinking is that NFL players will do just about anything that helps the team win. It's the silly stuff that turns them off.
If the Tampa Bay job does open up, the agent we consulted warned of hidden headaches. "You've got an owner with meddling sons, a fan base that is hit-and-miss in terms of their support, a quarterback situation still somewhat up in the air," the agent said. "The sons, they are playing fantasy football with real people, their own employees. It is very well known in the industry. They can insist certain people play and certain things be done. It is Jerry Jones light. They have some good young talent there. It's a place that they got over the hump, they started winning, they won a Super Bowl, but even with all that, they still haven't quite established a winning culture that can transcend the coach."
The agent also thought Schiano would keep his job. "When they were 0-8, he personally started changing his own methods because he knew it was really about his job," the agent said. "Now, he probably feels less threatened. They generally don't like paying off contracts as well. I would agree that he is less endangered. I think there will be a couple assistant coaches who get replaced."
There's a huge gap between the top two teams and the others in the eyes of league insiders. Detroit and Houston finished among the top two on just about every ballot. Both organizations project stability. Both are known for providing all the resources coaches covet. There's no questioning the Lions' talent.
"They have a QB, they have Megatron, a running back, Ndamukong Suh," the GM said. "You just need to improve the back half of your defense. [Team president] Tom Lewand is good to work for. There is an ability from a coaching perspective to probably get the personnel you want. Their ownership is outstanding. There is a degree of patience still."
Ownership previously stood by Matt Millen as its top football decision maker for seven losing seasons. Current coach Jim Schwartz has been on the job for five seasons, returning in 2013 after going 4-12 last season. Patience can be frustrating for fans, but coaching candidates covet stability.
"The No. 1 place for me would be Detroit with William Clay Ford as your owner," the agent said. An NFL team exec put it this way: "The Fords do things first class behind the scenes and they give you time. Schwartz could have been fired before. They have a great facility, the stadium is nice. The Lions appear to be a leader short of coming through."
That lack of leadership can be difficult to quantify. One coach for another team grimaced when he saw Baltimore's Justin Tucker convert a 61-yard field goal to beat Detroit on Monday night. Watching the Lions lose wasn't the hard part. The coach didn't like the way Detroit, with a formidable defensive front, failed to threaten the kick after a bad snap disrupted Tucker and prevented him from making full contact. The quarterback consulted for this piece thought the Lions could win a championship with Matthew Stafford, but only if a new coach instills discipline. "Players there say there are no repercussions," the QB said. "If they could bring discipline and structure there, they have a chance."
The personnel director thought the Lions' personnel was not only good but versatile enough to succeed if a new coach installed different schemes. "They have all the pieces," the director said. "The secondary needs to get shored up, but with the right coach there, maybe you go with an offensive-minded guy with a good defensive coordinator."
The Texans ranked first or second on every ballot even though the team has lost 12 consecutive games following a 2-0 start. "With the Texans, you have a great owner in Bob McNair," an executive from another team said. "He is involved, but they are first class. They do things the right way. They have all the resources." Coach Gary Kubiak lasted seven-plus seasons and was let go only after the team spiraled out of contention against all expectations, with Matt Schaub improbably becoming unviable as a starting quarterback.
NFL teams spend millions on players, but when coaches need something as seemingly insignificant as, say, a printer to produce sharper photos for reviewing formations on the sideline, sometimes the money can be tough to come by -- even for a winning organization. That is not the case in a place such as Houston. And with Rick Smith expected to remain in the role as GM, there figures to be stability and continuity.
"It starts from the top of the organization, which is solid and sound," the GM said. "Rick is a good GM to work with. They do have talent there. They get a high pick and will have a chance to get a franchise quarterback."
McNair has indicated the team likes its personnel and expects to win again quickly.
"It's important to know the philosophy of the personnel department," the candidate said. "How are you building the team? Free agency? The draft? Are you willing to be aggressive to get players? Will you get players over 30 to help you for a year or two, or are you looking to go young and build for the future? A big thing is the GM and how the personnel decisions are made within the building and what is the philosophy."
That part is in order for any coach taking over the Texans.
"Houston would be No. 2 behind Detroit on my list," the personnel director said. "They have skill players offensively. Andre Johnson is a heckuva player. The young kid out of Clemson (DeAndre Hopkins) has done a nice job. They have two tight ends who can play, and a great defensive player in J.J. Watt They have an owner who wants to win and a ton of resources with all the facilities. They are willing to do what you need to do to get better in free agency. They have shown a commitment to the draft."