Rams 2019 - Improve or Decline - ESPN

[kurtfaulk]

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came across this on youtube had had to have a look because i don't mind dan graziano.



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[Riverumbbq]

If we remain injury free, I'll go with 13-3 again or 12-4. Tougher schedule but better team overall imo. We win the West without question.

 

[Merlin]

Few years ago our OL was an enormous question mark. Now it's a question mark, but all the worries being fielded by Butterball in that video are a bit over the top.

Injuries are coming for the Rams because they've been healthy? Rams have stars that will be hard to replace if they're injured? Blah blah blah.

Rams might dip this year, because it's hard to put up a 13 win record. But what these guys overlook is HOW BAD OUR DEFENSE WAS for most of the season and we still won 13 games. Now imagine if we have a top defense. Yeah.

I'm sticking with 14 wins. And a championship. Suck on that butter boy.

 

[OldSchool]

Good lord that's moronic. There are 32 teams that if they see an increase in injuries and increase in turnovers they'll be worse. BSPN actually pays clowns for this level of analysis? I lasted 67 seconds on that video and how long was the introductions before tweedle dee and tweedle dum started talking?

 

[Ram65]

I lasted through the entire video. A good reason the Rams stay healthy is their conditioning program and allowing the veterans to rest more. The roster is much deeper now than in the past two years. Few teams outside of the Eagles with Foles and Rams with Warner survives the starting QB getting knocked out. However, Bortles is one of the best backup QBs in the league. The offensive line will rely on mid round rookies that may need a little time to not hurt the team should they need to play. Injures can happen to any team at any time. Donald needs to stay healthy as he is the best player in the NFL.

I don't like the phase taking a stepping back for this Rams team. This can be a better Rams team and still not have as good of a record as the 13-3 of last year. It will be hard to match last years record. The Rams did win some close games. I think they have a tougher schedule this year. I also think they are a better team on defense. The offense should be equal or better. Goff is getting better. This Rams team will be measured by the playoffs not the regular season.







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[Riverumbbq]

These and other clueless fan boy pundits have been disrespecting the Rams since young McVay arrived in Los Angeles, they keep wishing the worst so their predictions on Goff & McVay will somehow justify their poor analysis & reporting. Problem for them is that the Rams keep responding with successful management and players who are performing and executing beyond what all but us locals who have a deeper understanding of our team expected. Frankly though, let them continue to downplay who we are at their own peril, keep giving our team the ridiculous fodder our coaches can post in locker rooms for motivation or a laugh. The Rams are here to stay, one day they will realize it, probably while standing in an unemployment line.

 

[RamFan503]

Playing the odds and then justifying it with blather. Same shit, different video clip.

 

[IE Rams]

I lasted 67 seconds on that video and how long was the introductions before tweedle dee and tweedle dum started talking?

You have better foresight than me, OS. I lasted a full 3 minutes.

Did they even acknowledge what the Rams did w/o Krupp?

 

[LARams_1963]

Did they even acknowledge what the Rams did w/o Krupp?

Holy crap! The Rams lost their coffee machine last year???

 

[oldnotdead]

Geeez they act like the team didn't lose both starting CBs, their starting RB, their starting RG and a key WR for multiple games. Yeah they sure tanked they only made it to the Super Bowl. This team is better and deeper but it's worse and less able to sustain player injuries?? Who puts out this stupidity.

Do that to the Pats and they don't make it to the Super Bowl. Do that to the Saints and they don't get to the NFC Championship game.

 

[Karate61]

Butterball is a total negatron!

The Rams are coming into the 2019 season with another fantastic team, full of talent and big personalities.

They are growing as players. This will be the third year under McVay. I think Coach and the Players have worked out the kinks by now and will show up as a fine tuned machine.

Butterball said 10-6. I can't see that happening. That's a lot of losses for this team. I'm feeling 13-3 again, but this time that will be the #1 Seed.

 

[BonifayRam]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...ms-likeliest-decline-barnwell-picks-five-2019
Predicting the NFL teams likeliest to decline: Barnwell picks five for 2019

ESPN has the Los Angeles Rams listed as the #1 team on the decline list

• 
  
  Bill Barnwell ESPN Staff Writer

Los Angeles Rams (13-3)

Point differential in 2018: plus-143
Pythagorean expectation: 10.9 wins
Record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 6-1 (.857)
FPI projected strength of schedule: 15th-easiest

The Rams traded draft picks and created cap space to try to build a Super Bowl winner last season. They came within just a few plays of winning football's biggest prize, although Saints fans might argue that the Rams didn't deserve to be in the game to begin with. Even before the missed call on Nickell Robey-Coleman that extended the NFC Championship Game, the Rams were fortunate in a few ways in 2018.

Start with that 6-1 mark in close games, because it's almost impossible for even the best teams to maintain. Since 1989, 12 other teams have gone 6-1 in one-score games, winning an average of 11.9 games over the full season. The following year, those same teams were a combined 39-45 in one-score games. Each team saw its win total decline, and the average fall was just under four wins.

That's a small sample. Let's expand it out to all the teams that won five more close games than they lost, so we'll include teams that went 5-0 and 7-2 along with the 6-1 Rams. That's a group of 27 teams, and after going 173-38 (.820) in games decided by seven or fewer points, those same teams went 89-111 (.445) in one-score games the following season. You can't count on L.A. winning 85% of its close games again in 2019.

When looking at what actually happened in those games, you'll see just how narrow some of these victories really were:

• In a Thursday night shootout against the Vikings, the Rams punted on fourth-and-1 up 38-31 with 2 minutes, 30 seconds to go. The Vikings drove to midfield, only for a Kirk Cousins stripsack to end the game.
  
  
• The following week, down 33-31 late in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks drove to the Los Angeles 35-yard line with 3:53 to go, but then a pair of offensive line penalties pushed them back and forced a punt. The Rams tried to run out the clock and were stuffed on third-and-1 before lining up to punt. After Sean McVay's players encouraged him to go for it, the Rams converted on a Jared Goff sneak to end the game.
  
  
• In the rematch against the Seahawks, Seattle was down 36-31 and drove to the Rams' 35 again, only for its drive to end when Russell Wilson failed to connect with an open Tyler Lockett on the sidelines to extend the game.
  
  
• After kicking a field goal to go up 29-27 on the Packers with 2:09 to go in Week 8, the Rams were about to hand the ball back to Aaron Rodgers ... only for Ty Montgomery to fumble away the ensuing kickoff.
  
  
• In the 54-51 instant classic with the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, the Rams went on defense after a Gerald Everett touchdown with 1:49 to go. The Chiefs had two drives with an opportunity to tie or win, but after going 30-of-38 for 438 yards with six touchdowns and an interception on the first 13 drives of the game, Patrick Mahomes threw interceptions on each of the final two drives.

Throw in the interception the Rams forced from Drew Brees on the opening drive of overtime in the NFC Championship Game and you can see a trend here. A struggling Rams defense managed to come up with takeaways and huge plays exactly when they mattered most. Though Wade Phillips & Co. were happy with the results, it's tough to count on a defense stepping up at exactly the right time that often after being unable to make big plays before the fourth quarter.

It's unrealistic to expect Wade Phillips' defense to recover as many fumbles or make as many big plays in late-game situations as it did in 2018. Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
The fumble recoveries won't happen as frequently. Los Angeles recovered 71% of the fumbles in its games last season, including 12 of the 14 fumbles it forced on defense. That 71% figure was the highest fumble recovery rate going back to at least 1991, which is where the NFL's publicly available fumble data begins. If we look at the 50 highest fumble recovery rates going back through 1991, those teams recovered an average of 64.8% of their fumbles in Year 1 and then an average of 50.2% the following season.

It's not a Phillips thing, either. Though the former Cowboys coach is a brilliant defensive mind, his defense as a head coach or defensive coordinator had recovered 48.6% of fumbles from 1991-2017. On average, defenses recovered 48.2% of fumbles over the same time frame.

Though it didn't really matter because the offense was so dominant, the Rams' defense fell from sixth in DVOA to 18th a year ago. Are they likely to be significantly better in 2019? They lost a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber starters in Lamarcus Joyner and Ndamukong Suh, then added 34-year-old Eric Weddle and 33-year-old Clay Matthews this offseason. Aqib Talib, who was by far the Rams' best cornerback a year ago, turned 33 in February. Those are three great players with fantastic résumés, and both Talib and Weddle played very well last season, but history tells us they're more likely to decline than improve as they age. The Rams lost Talib for a chunk of 2018, but they were 13th in defensive Adjusted Games Lost, so it's not as if they project to be significantly healthier in 2019.

Even if the defense improves, we should expect at least a modest offensive decline. I don't buy the idea that the Patriots gave everyone a blueprint on how to stop the Rams in the Super Bowl -- McVay has had an entire offseason to make adjustments against defenses that might sell out to stop outside zone -- but the league already suggested it is going to target holds on the backsides of run plays this season, using a block from star Rams left tackle Andrew Whitworth as one of the examples.

I don't think the league is actually going to dramatically change the way it calls offensive holding, but there are absolutely legitimate concerns about the Rams' offensive line. L.A. is rebuilding the interior of its line after losing Rodger Saffold to the Titans and moving on from center John Sullivan, whose experience helped set and reset protections for Goff at the line of scrimmage. Goff had both Saffold and Sullivan on the field for nearly 89% of his snaps over the past two seasons.

The Rams will put their faith in youth, with 2018 draft picks Joseph Noteboom and Brian Allen taking over at left guard and center, respectively. Goff will take more responsibility in helping to set protections. Austin Blythe, who won the right guard job last season while Jamon Brown was suspended, is the elder statesman on the interior with 18 career starts. Whitworth deserves to be in the Hall of Fame after he retires, but he turns 38 during the season. If his level of play slips -- and there's not a lengthy track record of offensive linemen playing as well as Whitworth in their late 30s -- offensive line could be a real problem for Los Angeles.
It's also fair to wonder if the Rams will be as healthy on offense as they were a year ago, given that they were the second-healthiest unit in football on that side of the field based on Adjusted Games Lost. McVay's ideal offense over the past two years has been to run the same 11 players out on the field for every single offensive snap outside of goal-line situations. Until Cooper Kupp tore his ACL in midseason, McVay was mostly getting his wish.

The Rams were also first in offensive Adjusted Games Lost in 2017. Though the precocious coach has attempted to maximize the chances of keeping his stars healthy by monitoring their practice schedules and keeping some out of every preseason game, there's no way to perennially avoid injuries. It's possible that the Rams might project as healthier than most offenses, but history suggests they will deal with more injuries on offense in 2019.

Obviously, McVay also seems likely to shift away from using Todd Gurley as an every-down back. The Rams were able to get by with C.J. Anderson when Gurley missed time last December, then drafted Darrell Henderson to help shoulder some of the workload, but the check the Rams made out to Gurley last summer tells you that they think he is a unique, irreplaceable talent. If Gurley only plays 70% of Los Angeles' offensive snaps, they aren't going to be as effective as they were when Gurley was on the field 90% of the time.

Kyler Murray at quarterback. The Rams lose a home game to London, which has historically hurt teams, but I'm less concerned because they'll be playing the Bengals. The sky isn't falling in Los Angeles, and there are going to be weeks when the Rams look downright unbeatable, but the preponderance of evidence suggests that we'll see them fall off from their 13-3 record.

 

[Legatron4]

I thought the guy made some good points. I just think the injury thing is being blown out of proportion. We definitely have been healthy but it’s not like all 22 players have started 16 games the past two years.

There’s no reason we can’t at least be the same team as last year. I am a little concerned about the close games but really good teams are the ones to win those.

 

[Merlin]

Start with that 6-1 mark in close games, because it's almost impossible for even the best teams to maintain. Since 1989, 12 other teams have gone 6-1 in one-score games, winning an average of 11.9 games over the full season. The following year, those same teams were a combined 39-45 in one-score games. Each team saw its win total decline, and the average fall was just under four wins.

That's a small sample. Let's expand it out to all the teams that won five more close games than they lost, so we'll include teams that went 5-0 and 7-2 along with the 6-1 Rams. That's a group of 27 teams, and after going 173-38 (.820) in games decided by seven or fewer points, those same teams went 89-111 (.445) in one-score games the following season. You can't count on L.A. winning 85% of its close games again in 2019.

Looking at league trends is fine, and a valid argument. But then he glosses over potential defensive improvement with "Even if the defense improves, we should expect at least a modest offensive decline." In glossing over the potential for better defense he doesn't consider how terrible that unit played due to loss of Talib last season.

Defensive improvement is the key here. Our stats from last season:

Points allowed per game - 23.3 (18th)
Opponent passer rating - 92.3 (14th)
Opponent yards per rush - 4.8 (27th-ish. Teams are clumped; worst in league was 4.9 with 4 teams tied)
Sack percentage - 6.56 (19th)

We won 13 games last season with a defense that struggled in a lot of key defensive categories. Imagine what this team is going to be if we finally get that top 5 defense. I think that--if it happens--will easily counter a change in close game results.

 

[IE Rams]

Holy crap! The Rams lost their coffee machine last year???

Jesus H. I really wrote that.

 

[MauiRam]

No predictions on the Rams' record this year. I really don't give a poop what their record is as long as they win the last game of the year in Atlanta ..

 

[Loyal]

I think stats covering different teams, and even our club has a different team every year, to find a trend of some sort, is false. Just because Wade Phillips defenses did something in Dallas, doesn't mean his defense in LA in their third year, will bend into some range the author expects. As for our offense, so what if the Rams won close games last year? Good teams win close games, and lesser teams find ways to lose. We know this from the Fisher years.

The bottom line is the media needs new story lines, and aside from the Patriots (because they have no choice), predicting that winning team is going to keep winning year after year, is boring to them. They like tearing down the team(s) they built up in the previous year. Kyle Brandt crystalized this for me last year, because he said on GMFB "I'm tired of saying the Rams are great and unstoppable," then he started predicting that they would lose against almost any future playoff team. We would lose against the Cowboys, Seahawks, Bears, Eagles, and of course the Saints. "Who can lose to the Saints in the Super Dome?" he said. It's more fun to pimp a new hot team than to say the same old things, so screw these guys and Kay Adams.

 

[snackdaddy]

For every reason all these pundits come up with for the Rams decline, I can come up with a reason for their improvement. Kupp is back. Reynolds gained some valuable experience as the 4th guy. Everett and Higbee expect to be even better as a TE tandem. Goff and McVay have plenty of time to counter the infamous "Blue Print". Saying the Rams will be stopped because of this blue print is saying McVay isn't smart enough to adapt. But in the same token, they call McVay the boy genius. Contradict yourself much?

On defense Weddle is an upgrade at FS. Fowler has a full camp under his belt to play in Wade's system. He looks poised for a breakout year. Matthews brings experience on the other side or middle. Peters will now be playing his natural position as an off the ball corner. And of course, Aaron Donald. Nuff said.

 

[tempests]

Smelling some baloney from that Barnwell article. 9 of the 12 playoff teams in 2018 had a winning record in games decided by 7 points or less, and Baltimore was the only one with a losing mark.

 

[Ramlock]

I think stats covering different teams, and even our club has a different team every year, to find a trend of some sort, is false. Just because Wade Phillips defenses did something in Dallas, doesn't mean his defense in LA in their third year, will bend into some range the author expects. As for our offense, so what if the Rams won close games last year? Good teams win close games, and lesser teams find ways to lose. We know this from the Fisher years.

The bottom line is the media needs new story lines, and aside from the Patriots (because they have no choice), predicting that winning team is going to keep winning year after year, is boring to them. They like tearing down the team(s) they built up in the previous year. Kyle Brandt crystalized this for me last year, because he said on GMFB "I'm tired of saying the Rams are great and unstoppable," then he started predicting that they would lose against almost any future playoff team. We would lose against the Cowboys, Seahawks, Bears, Eagles, and of course the Saints. "Who can lose to the Saints in the Super Dome?" he said. It's more fun to pimp a new hot team than to say the same old things, so screw these guys and Kay Adams.

All of this, pretty much