- Joined
- Jun 28, 2010
- Messages
- 48,133
- Name
- Burger man
http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colu...cle_a5f88b0b-9309-58df-a449-34bc6876b102.html
SEATTLE • Let’s get this out of the way: Whether the Rams win or lose Sunday at CenturyLink Field, I’m OK with their 2013 season.
After all, I predicted a 7-9 record before the season. I cited the Rams’ youth and inexperience, their occupancy in the punishing NFC West, and their difficult schedule.
And all of those factors figured prominently in the course of the season. The Rams are the NFL’s youngest team, the NFC West is unquestionably the league’s best division, and the Rams have played the league’s second-toughest schedule.
There’s one more component to add to the mix: the Rams have more salary, $35 million, on injured reserve than any NFL team this season. Starting quarterback Sam Bradford — ranked 11th in the NFL in passer rating and having his best NFL season — was lost for the year to a knee injury in the seventh game.
If anything the NFC West was even better than I expected, with the four division teams having gone 30-10 against non-division opponents. And the Rams’ schedule was more challenging than I anticipated.
That’s why the 7-8 Rams are who I thought they were as they enter Sunday’s game against the division-leading Seahawks.
For the purposes of discussion, let’s suppose the Rams lose this final game and finish 7-9. That outcome is hardly a stretch given Seattle’s 14-1 home record over the past two seasons.
I’d be a brazen hypocrite if I ripped the Rams for having a 7-9 record after I predicted a 7-9 record.
If the Rams upset Seattle and end the year with an 8-8 mark, it would be their best season since 2006. Under the circumstances, it would be rather foolish to blast a young team for going 8-8 for a franchise that’s trying to stop a skid of six consecutive losing seasons.
The same principle applies to coach Jeff Fisher’s two-season record, which stands at 14-16-1. Fisher was hired to oversee a massive cleanup after the wretched Rams went 15-65 from 2007 to 2011.
I realize that the NFL is a quick turnaround league, but I’m thinking it takes just a little while longer to do something with a pile of debris that had just formed the worst five-season record in NFL history.
From 2007 through 2011, the Rams’ winning percentage was .188.
If the Rams lose today, their two-season winning percentage under Fisher would be .453.
If the Rams beat Seattle, the winning percentage would be .484.
Obviously, you don’t have to be Vince Lombardi to understand that progress has been made.
I pay attention to the work of advanced-statistics analysts, and one of the best, Football Outsiders, ranks the Rams as the league’s 14th-best team. That seems about right to me.
A 7-9 or 8-8 record isn’t cause for celebration, forming a parade-planning committee, or a reason for Mayor Slay to give Coach Fisher the keys to the city. And I’m not exactly thrilled with some of the things we’ve seen from the Rams this season.
That list includes:
• The absence of significant impact from a pair of premium 2012 draft choices, wide receiver Brian Quick and running back Isaiah Pead.
• The failure of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to put together a coherent passing attack early in the season. The Rams’ attempt at a spread ’em out offense was comically inept, and Fisher wisely tore up the playbook and went back to a run-heavy attack after the bye week.
If you want to criticize Fisher for waiting too long to adjust, I think that’s fair. But in fairness, we were all but demanding a wide-open passing attack from the 2013 Rams based on personnel upgrades at wide receiver and tight end.
• The inability to come up with plays designed to get rookie wide receiver Tavon Austin out in space, where he’s most dangerous. Schottenheimer finally developed some ideas, but too late.
• The breakdowns in discipline and too many penalties.
• Two losses — the Seattle and Tennessee home games — that should have been wins.
• The thin depth and inexperience in the secondary; the roster planning there wasn’t smart.
There were some pleasing developments including defensive end Robert Quinn’s record-setting season, the emergence of rookie running back Zac Stacy as the center piece of a bullish ground game, a defensive front four that rates among the NFL’s best, the exciting play of rookie linebacker Alec Ogletree, and an improved offensive line.
I don’t think anyone should be happy with 7-9 or 8-8. As I said at the beginning of the column, I’m “OK” with it, and that’s hardly a confetti toss.
But there are two kinds of 7-9 or 8-8.
If you’re a team accustomed to winning 10 or more games each season, then winning seven or eight represents a move in the wrong direction. The elevator is going down. The 2004 Rams were a great example of that.
If, however, you’re a team that averaged three wins over a five-season stretch and set a standard for NFL futility, then seven or eight wins represents a move in the right direction. The elevator is going up. The 2013 Rams fit this category.
The challenge ahead is to keep the arrow pointed up. After two seasons of playing just under .500 football, the Rams have to break through to a winning record in 2014. I don’t think fans will be as understanding about accepting another 7-9 or 8-8 season next year.
When the new bosses got set to rebuild before the 2012 season, they quietly pointed to 2014 as the breakout season. One problem: I don’t think they expected the NFC West to be so formidable. When Fisher and GM Les Snead took over, the NFC West wasn’t nearly as daunting; only San Francisco (13-3) had a winning record in 2011.
The Rams can’t change divisions. They’re going to have to stand and fight, and the competitive Fisher likes that. This intriguing game at Seattle gives the young Rams a chance to make a statement about what they plan to be in 2014. This final game marks the end of the season, but the Rams want it to serve as a new beginning.
SEATTLE • Let’s get this out of the way: Whether the Rams win or lose Sunday at CenturyLink Field, I’m OK with their 2013 season.
After all, I predicted a 7-9 record before the season. I cited the Rams’ youth and inexperience, their occupancy in the punishing NFC West, and their difficult schedule.
And all of those factors figured prominently in the course of the season. The Rams are the NFL’s youngest team, the NFC West is unquestionably the league’s best division, and the Rams have played the league’s second-toughest schedule.
There’s one more component to add to the mix: the Rams have more salary, $35 million, on injured reserve than any NFL team this season. Starting quarterback Sam Bradford — ranked 11th in the NFL in passer rating and having his best NFL season — was lost for the year to a knee injury in the seventh game.
If anything the NFC West was even better than I expected, with the four division teams having gone 30-10 against non-division opponents. And the Rams’ schedule was more challenging than I anticipated.
That’s why the 7-8 Rams are who I thought they were as they enter Sunday’s game against the division-leading Seahawks.
For the purposes of discussion, let’s suppose the Rams lose this final game and finish 7-9. That outcome is hardly a stretch given Seattle’s 14-1 home record over the past two seasons.
I’d be a brazen hypocrite if I ripped the Rams for having a 7-9 record after I predicted a 7-9 record.
If the Rams upset Seattle and end the year with an 8-8 mark, it would be their best season since 2006. Under the circumstances, it would be rather foolish to blast a young team for going 8-8 for a franchise that’s trying to stop a skid of six consecutive losing seasons.
The same principle applies to coach Jeff Fisher’s two-season record, which stands at 14-16-1. Fisher was hired to oversee a massive cleanup after the wretched Rams went 15-65 from 2007 to 2011.
I realize that the NFL is a quick turnaround league, but I’m thinking it takes just a little while longer to do something with a pile of debris that had just formed the worst five-season record in NFL history.
From 2007 through 2011, the Rams’ winning percentage was .188.
If the Rams lose today, their two-season winning percentage under Fisher would be .453.
If the Rams beat Seattle, the winning percentage would be .484.
Obviously, you don’t have to be Vince Lombardi to understand that progress has been made.
I pay attention to the work of advanced-statistics analysts, and one of the best, Football Outsiders, ranks the Rams as the league’s 14th-best team. That seems about right to me.
A 7-9 or 8-8 record isn’t cause for celebration, forming a parade-planning committee, or a reason for Mayor Slay to give Coach Fisher the keys to the city. And I’m not exactly thrilled with some of the things we’ve seen from the Rams this season.
That list includes:
• The absence of significant impact from a pair of premium 2012 draft choices, wide receiver Brian Quick and running back Isaiah Pead.
• The failure of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to put together a coherent passing attack early in the season. The Rams’ attempt at a spread ’em out offense was comically inept, and Fisher wisely tore up the playbook and went back to a run-heavy attack after the bye week.
If you want to criticize Fisher for waiting too long to adjust, I think that’s fair. But in fairness, we were all but demanding a wide-open passing attack from the 2013 Rams based on personnel upgrades at wide receiver and tight end.
• The inability to come up with plays designed to get rookie wide receiver Tavon Austin out in space, where he’s most dangerous. Schottenheimer finally developed some ideas, but too late.
• The breakdowns in discipline and too many penalties.
• Two losses — the Seattle and Tennessee home games — that should have been wins.
• The thin depth and inexperience in the secondary; the roster planning there wasn’t smart.
There were some pleasing developments including defensive end Robert Quinn’s record-setting season, the emergence of rookie running back Zac Stacy as the center piece of a bullish ground game, a defensive front four that rates among the NFL’s best, the exciting play of rookie linebacker Alec Ogletree, and an improved offensive line.
I don’t think anyone should be happy with 7-9 or 8-8. As I said at the beginning of the column, I’m “OK” with it, and that’s hardly a confetti toss.
But there are two kinds of 7-9 or 8-8.
If you’re a team accustomed to winning 10 or more games each season, then winning seven or eight represents a move in the wrong direction. The elevator is going down. The 2004 Rams were a great example of that.
If, however, you’re a team that averaged three wins over a five-season stretch and set a standard for NFL futility, then seven or eight wins represents a move in the right direction. The elevator is going up. The 2013 Rams fit this category.
The challenge ahead is to keep the arrow pointed up. After two seasons of playing just under .500 football, the Rams have to break through to a winning record in 2014. I don’t think fans will be as understanding about accepting another 7-9 or 8-8 season next year.
When the new bosses got set to rebuild before the 2012 season, they quietly pointed to 2014 as the breakout season. One problem: I don’t think they expected the NFC West to be so formidable. When Fisher and GM Les Snead took over, the NFC West wasn’t nearly as daunting; only San Francisco (13-3) had a winning record in 2011.
The Rams can’t change divisions. They’re going to have to stand and fight, and the competitive Fisher likes that. This intriguing game at Seattle gives the young Rams a chance to make a statement about what they plan to be in 2014. This final game marks the end of the season, but the Rams want it to serve as a new beginning.
