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Predicting MVPs for all 32 NFL teams: From Patrick Mahomes and Bradley Chubb to Jimmy Garoppolo and Aaron Rodgers
By The Athletic NFL Staff Jun 22, 2021
Offseason workouts are finished. Minicamps are over. Now the countdown to training camp is underway. Which players will make the biggest impact on the upcoming season?
The Athletic’s writers predict MVPs for all 32 NFL teams:
AFC East
Buffalo BillsJosh Allen was an MVP candidate a year ago and the runaway pick as Buffalo’s team MVP. It’s hard to see that changing unless something goes sideways with the Bills’ offense. You could make an argument that wide receiver Stefon Diggs is just as valuable as Allen, but quarterback is the premium position in this game. The connection between Allen and Diggs is what vaulted the Bills’ offense into the top tier of the league and it’s that connection that will give them a chance to repeat that effort. This team will go as far as Allen and Diggs can take them. — Matthew Fairburn
Miami Dolphins
All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard enjoyed a career season in 2020. He led the league with 10 interceptions, the most by any player since 2007, and tied Dick Westmoreland for the franchise record. It’ll be difficult for Howard to replicate his historic performance, but the 27-year-old defensive back is a big reason why Miami’s defense has made notable strides over the past several seasons and jumped near the top of the league’s rankings. His lockdown-caliber style will help open up paths for teammates to shine; nearly half of Miami’s sacks last season were credited as coverage sacks. — Josh Tolentino
New England Patriots
If the Patriots get back to the playoffs, they’re going to do it through their defense, a unit that should be viewed as a strong candidate to allow the fewest points in the league. Dont’a Hightower, who had his best season as a pass rusher in 2019 before opting out last season, should be the piece to bring it all together. Hightower won’t necessarily be their best player — that should be Stephon Gilmore, or Matt Judon or maybe even Josh Uche or Kyle Dugger if either makes the expected jump — but he will be their most valuable. As a leader and play caller, Hightower’s role will be as important as ever in the middle of an overhauled front seven. They have a ton of depth and will rotate plenty of bodies based on a variety of situations, so Hightower’s ability to keep them on the same page will be vital. — Jeff Howe
New York Jets
Going to go with a wild card here and say linebacker C.J. Mosley. He’s looked awfully good at offseason workouts; teammates and coaches insist he has no rust despite playing just three healthy quarters the last two years. It’s easy to forget just how good Mosley is when healthy. He’s a four-time Pro Bowler and likely would have been a four-time, first-team All-Pro if not for some dude named Luke Kuechly. If Mosley really is back, the biggest addition to this Jets roster might be a guy they signed two years ago. — Connor Hughes
AFC North
Baltimore RavensIt would be hard to pick anybody but quarterback Lamar Jackson, who was the unanimous league MVP two seasons ago. The Ravens upgraded Jackson’s group of targets by signing Sammy Watkins and drafting Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace. Bradley Bozeman’s move to center and the signing of Kevin Zeitler should improve the pass blocking. The Ravens’ offensive staff has had another offseason — and a normal one at that — to make some necessary tweaks. All of those factors should help Jackson put up better numbers in the passing game and everyone knows what he can do with his legs. — Jeff Zrebiec
Cincinnati Bengals
Unless something goes terribly awry, this will be Joe Burrow. Not that the Bengals don’t have a handful of emerging players capable of making a significant impact this year (Jessie Bates III, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase) but every single move made in Paul Brown Stadium in some way revolves around Burrow. After ending the season with a torn left ACL, he returned in OTAs and claimed 85 percent health for his knee. He hopes to be 100 percent by the beginning of training camp. A breakout second year from Burrow returns the Bengals to relevancy and opens a contending window fueled by one of the most dynamic passing attacks in the game. — Paul Dehner Jr.
Cleveland Browns
Loaded question here because the offense is loaded. Of course, the Browns need more efficient play from Baker Mayfield, but they also need the offensive line to play the way it did last season. Nick Chubb is definitely one of the Browns’ most gifted players and could end up being the most valuable, but for my team MVP choice, I’ll pivot to the other side and say Myles Garrett. His monster 2020 had a disappointing ending because COVID effects lingered, but Garrett started consistently changing games and opposing game plans. The Browns should score enough to give him lots of pass-rush chances, and he should turn those chances into a bunch of impactful plays. — Zac Jackson
Myles Garrett was dominant in 2020 before COVID protocols interrupted his season. Could he be even better this season? (Charles LeClaire / USA Today)
Pittsburgh Steelers
While the MVP often is the quarterback and rarely a rookie, halfback Najee Harris easily could run away with it in his first season. The Steelers declared a new commitment to the run game soon after they finished on the bottom of the NFL in rushing last season. Then with their first draft pick, they selected Harris, the best back in college football. He’s big, he can catch, he can block, and Mike Tomlin has a history of running a “bell cow” back rather than by committee. It’s set up for Harris to be a star. — Ed Bouchette
AFC South
Houston TexansAs the Texans begin a lengthy rebuild, they won’t be able to rely on elite play anywhere other than at left tackle. Laremy Tunsil is by no means a bargain in the first year of the three-year, $66 million extension he signed last year, but he is by far the Texans’ best player. His presence will be valuable whenever Houston hands over the starting quarterback job to rookie Davis Mills so it can evaluate the third-round pick before heading into an offseason when it could possess the No. 1 overall pick. — Aaron Reiss
Indianapolis Colts
The easy answer here would be Carson Wentz, the damaged quarterback Colts coach Frank Reich intends on revitalizing in Indianapolis. And I expect Wentz to play much, much better than his final year in Philadelphia, but my pick for the Colts’ MVP comes on the other side of the ball: linebacker Darius Leonard. I’m betting this is the year Leonard, fresh off a massive contract extension, puts himself into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation and carries the Colts to the playoffs. — Zak Keefer
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have staked their future on QB Trevor Lawrence, but expecting Lawrence to automatically elevate a team that went 1-15 last year is asking too much. He needs help, and that help should come from a middle of the offensive line that was a bright spot for the Jaguars last season. Center Brandon Linder should be able to guide Lawrence in his first year as well as open some holes for backs James Robinson, Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde. Linder and guards Andrew Norwell and A.J. Cann also have been solid in pass protection, so Lawrence should have no fear of rushers blowing up plays from the inside out. That should give him confidence as he adjusts to the speed of the pro game. — Andy Staples
Tennessee Titans
The Titans would love for this to be a defensive player who rises up and transforms that side of the ball, such as the high-priced centerpiece of free agency, Bud Dupree. Or maybe Jeffery Simmons in his third year, benefiting from the addition of Denico Autry. Any of the three offensive skill stars could be the answer; Derrick Henry is a favorite because he’s still guaranteed a heavy workload and probably some lighter boxes. But the most likely answer is Ryan Tannehill. He has been an effective point guard since taking over the starting job in 2019, finding the open man and rarely forcing the ball to anyone. Now he has Henry to keep creating big play-action windows, two nightmares to cover in Julio Jones and A.J. Brown, plus capable support players in Josh Reynolds, Anthony Firkser and Darrynton Evans. He should put up big, and efficient, numbers. — Joe Rexrode
AFC West
Denver BroncosBradley Chubb. The No. 5 pick in the 2018 draft earned his first Pro Bowl honor last season, and that came on the heels of the ACL injury he suffered four games into the 2019 campaign. Another year removed from the injury — and with Von Miller returning to command opposite-side attention after missing all of 2020 with an ankle injury — Chubb should be primed for his best season. The Broncos would love for the MVP of their team to be the quarterback, but they should settle for positive steps from Drew Lock, assuming he can wrest the job from veteran Teddy Bridgewater. — Nick Kosmider
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are designed for this answer to be Patrick Mahomes. They spent the offseason trying to provide better protection for Mahomes by acquiring several new, younger linemen such as left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., left guard Joe Thuney, rookie center Creed Humphrey and rookie right guard Trey Smith. If Mahomes is given adequate time in the pocket, he could have an upcoming season similar to what he did in 2018, when he produced more than 5,000 passing yards and 50 touchdown passes. If that occurs, Mahomes might add another league MVP trophy to his accolades — Nate Taylor
Las Vegas Raiders
Tight end Darren Waller is a team player and credits Henry Ruggs III for taking the top off of defenses with his speed. Ruggs had a somewhat disappointing rookie season, but the Raiders coaches and players maintain he was a big factor. But Jon Gruden could have played wide receiver last year and Waller still would have had 1,000 yards. He is only five years removed from being a receiver in college, and Waller already is the third-best tight end in the NFL. He can line up anywhere, is too fast for linebackers and too big and strong for defensive backs and has great hands. Plus, he works hard at blocking. He will surely top last year’s 1,196 yards as he continues to get better. — Vic Tafur
Darren Waller already is one of the league’s best tight ends and creates matchup problems wherever he lines up. (Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback Justin Herbert is the expected answer, but I am going in a different direction: edge rusher Joey Bosa. He was outstanding last season despite battling numerous injuries — two concussions, knee, triceps, ankle and shin. He was far and away their best defensive player and, more than once, single-handedly kept the Chargers in games with timely sacks, pressures and tackles for loss. I firmly believe he would have been in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation if he had been healthier. The Chargers hired a defensive mastermind head coach in Brandon Staley, who has proven adept at getting the most out of star players. Bosa is at that level, both as a pass rusher and a run defender. In this new, more aggressive defensive scheme, we could see a career season from Bosa, as long as he stays on the field. — Daniel Popper
NFC East
Dallas CowboysDak Prescott. The Cowboys aren’t going anywhere without their franchise quarterback playing at a high level. His value has never been more evident than after he was lost for the season last year in Week 5. The team certainly played in the weeks that immediately followed like a group that had just lost its leader. With Prescott appearing to be back to full strength during OTAs and minicamp, the expectation is that he will be leading one of the NFL’s top offenses this season. It’s probably going to take new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn some time to get that side of the ball fixed. While that’s going on, Prescott may have to carry even more of the load in some high-scoring shootouts. As long as he doesn’t suffer any setbacks with his surgically repaired right ankle, Prescott has the ability and the weapons around him to be in the MVP conversation. — Jon Machota
New York Giants
The Giants have a variety of candidates on offense. The ideal answer would be Daniel Jones, but I’m not convinced the quarterback will make a Josh Allen-like leap in Year 3. Running back Saquon Barkley and wide receiver Kenny Golladay have the talent to be the team’s MVP, but each has durability issues. That leads me to defense, with Leonard Williams, Blake Martinez standing out as top candidates. But I’ll give the nod to James Bradberry, who was a shutdown corner in his first season with the Giants and should be even better with an improved supporting cast in the secondary this season. — Dan Duggan
Philadelphia Eagles
Best-case scenario? Jalen Hurts emerges as a dynamic dual-threat leader of the offense, rushes for 1,000 yards, improves his accuracy and leads the team to a division championship in the still lowly NFC East. More realistically, one of the Eagles’ two stalwarts on either side of the line of scrimmage will stand out again, whether that’s 33-year-old Jason Kelce holding down the fort at center or Fletcher Cox turning the clock back to his more dominant form of three seasons ago. If you really want to get spicy, don’t count out DeVonta Smith, who has made early impressions before. The Eagles have lacked dynamism on offense for much of the last two years. Maybe Smith delivers that. It’s the time of summer to be optimistic, so let’s just go with the rookie. — Bo Wulf
Washington Football Team
Chase Young. Kind of feels a bit too on the nose going with the popular and charismatic pass rusher who was selected second overall in the 2020 draft and is the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year. While QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s presence might reshape an offense in desperate need of punch, it’s the defense that will fuel any team success and — with no disrespect to the other stud defensive lineman on the roster — Young is the one to watch on that side of the ball. — Ben Standig
NFC North
Chicago BearsRunning back David Montgomery. At some point, the Bears will take the ball from quarterback Andy Dalton and give it to rookie Justin Fields this season. But both QBs will require a consistently productive run game to be successful. Montgomery finished fifth in rushing yards (1,070) and fifth in total yards from scrimmage (1,508) last season. His 10 total touchdowns led the team. The Bears expect him to surpass all those numbers in his third season. Montgomery also worked with a speed coach this offseason. — Adam Jahns
Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift are going to have big years, but I’ll go with the Lions’ most irreplaceable player: Frank Ragnow. For this team to have any chance of being competitive in Dan Campbell’s first season as head coach, the offensive line needs to dominate on a regular basis. Ragnow will be at the heart of that, both as QB Jared Goff’s extra set of eyes and as the pivot point on any number of run plays. Ragnow is tough enough to deal with the league’s best interior defenders, but he’s also quick and aggressive enough to be used quite a bit as a pulling blocker. He was second-team All-Pro last year; he might be the best center in football this year. Given what the Lions are going to be, he’ll have to live up to that billing. — Chris Burke
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers. My guess is he arrives in Green Bay some time during training camp and goes on another tear throughout the NFL, perhaps a run impressive enough to win back-to-back MVPs. Time heals all wounds, and with another couple of months of consideration for why he should stay with the Packers and play for his coaches, teammates and fans — even if he doesn’t like general manager Brian Gutekunst — Rodgers might decide to make another run at a Super Bowl with the only NFL team he’s ever played for. — Matt Schneidman
Minnesota Vikings
If we ignore the cop-out that quarterbacks will always be the most important player on any team and choose which players have a particularly outsized impact, it would have to be Eric Kendricks. The offense should perform well again this year, but the defense needs to catch up and Kendricks has a big impact on the defense, especially for a linebacker. His dual capability in coverage and against the run will need to show up once again if there’s a defensive revival. His injury near the end of last year cut short the Vikings’ push for the playoffs and their defensive turnaround. A healthy Kendricks will help the Vikings’ defense return to form. — Arif Hasan
NFC South
Atlanta FalconsMatt Ryan has had to sit back and watch as the Falcons shifted around him this offseason. He watched as a new front office and coaching staff came in. He had to take a back seat as Arthur Smith and Terry Fontenot made their draft-day decisions (which many thought could have easily landed Ryan’s own successor). Ryan saw Alex Mack head to San Francisco in free agency and Julio Jones leave for Tennessee via a trade. Perhaps this is enough to make a player falter, but I think that Ryan, 36, will have an exciting year. With Smith as the play caller, Ryan could shine. With better protection and a more balanced run game — and with Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley on the receiving end — Ryan could put up even better numbers. Perhaps everything that has happened this offseason is only fuel for Ryan. — Tori McElhaney
Carolina Panthers
It would be more daring to go with someone from the Panthers’ young and emerging defense, like edge rusher Brian Burns or the do-everything Jeremy Chinn. But I’ll go with Christian McCaffrey in a big, bounce-back year after his injury-riddled 2020. There’s a narrative out there that the Panthers relied too heavily on McCaffrey in Ron Rivera’s last two seasons in Charlotte. And while that may be true, none of McCaffrey’s injuries last year were from overuse. Look for McCaffrey to stay healthy and put up MVP-type numbers as Sam Darnold’s new best friend, especially when the pocket is breaking down. — Joseph Person
How will Christian McCaffrey rebound from an injury-plagued 2020 season? (Kim Klement / USA Today)
New Orleans Saints
The Saints could use every ounce of awesome from Alvin Kamara. The 2017 third-rounder bounced back from injuries in 2019 to once again become one of the most dangerous weapons in the NFL. Kamara led the league last season in total touchdowns with 21, three more than Green Bay’s Davante Adams. We all know New Orleans will be in a transition year at quarterback with Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill replacing Drew Brees. Keeping Kamara as a constant weapon with the Saints offense will be paramount for the team’s success. — Larry Holder
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Just playing the odds, it’s hard to go against Tom Brady here. He set a franchise record with 40 touchdown passes last year, then threw another 10 in the playoffs, and he has the same deep group of talented options to throw to, from receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown to tight end Rob Gronkowski. If anyone other than Brady is team MVP, it says a lot about what they’ve been able to do in upstaging a seven-time Super Bowl champ. If they want to be the first NFL team in 17 years to repeat as champs, they’ll need a big year at age 44 from Brady, the last starting quarterback to pull off back-to-back titles. — Greg Auman
NFC West
Arizona CardinalsIt has to be Kyler Murray. If the Cardinals are going to be a true NFC West contender, they’ll need Murray to be playing at a near-MVP level. The Cardinals already designed their offense around Murray in his first two seasons; now it’s up to Murray to continue to elevate his own game and make a leap in passing production. Will he be the Cardinals’ best player? DeAndre Hopkins, J.J. Watt and Budda Baker deserve to be part of that conversation. But there is no doubt Murray is the most important. — Lindsay Jones
Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Donald. I know, I know — fans probably want me to put “Matthew Stafford” here, and he may well have the season of his career now that he’s paired with Sean McVay and the Rams’ offensive system and all of its weapons. But on the other side of the ball exists the greatest player in the world, and perhaps the greatest of all time at his position — a returning three-time Defensive Player of the Year against whom teams must formulate a specific game plan, and God help them as they do. Donald is a catalyst, a game-wrecker, a natural disaster, but he’s also a teacher to young players, and a magnet who draws enough attention that others find opportunity. His presence affects not just the on-field product but the Rams’ team-building model. As long as he’s on this roster, he’s the center of the solar system — and the MVP. — Jourdan Rodrigue
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s going to have to be if the 49ers are to achieve their lofty goals. For all the hoopla about rookie QB Trey Lance, Garoppolo is still in the driver’s seat. It’ll take an unexpected slip or another injury for Lance to grab the keys this season, and such a scenario simply wouldn’t optimize the 49ers’ chances of winning now. Garoppolo looked sharper and physically stronger than his previous self during OTAs, and he’ll be operating behind what should be an improved offensive line. We saw how much the 49ers missed good quarterback play while Garoppolo was hurt last season. If he can stay on the field, Garoppolo can be a winning difference for the 49ers — much like he was at several key junctures of 2019. — David Lombardi
Seattle Seahawks
As long as Russell Wilson is on the roster he will forever be the team’s most valuable player. He’s the biggest reason Seattle continues to be a perennial playoff team in this post-Legion of Boom run. Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is arguably a more talented player, earning six career first-team All-Pro nods, an honor Wilson has never earned. But when Wilson is clicking, it makes everyone across the league feel like Seattle can be a Super Bowl contender. — Michael-Shawn Dugar
(Photo of Bradley Chubb and Patrick Mahomes: Aaron Ontiveroz / The Denver Post via Getty Images)
