Peter King: 1/7/19

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Excerpts only. To read the whole mess click the link below.
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https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...card-weekend-fmia-eagles-chargers-peter-king/

By Peter King

Dallas (11-6, NFC 4th seed) at Los Angeles Rams (13-3, NFC 2nd seed), L.A. Coliseum, 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX.

Let’s step back for a minute and think how interesting it is that two years ago, the two teams now in southern California, the Rams and Chargers, were a woebegone 9-23, and league owners were rolling their eyes at the possibility of two lousy teams in Los Angeles. Now they’re 26-7, and they’re legit members of the NFL’s elite eight. Nothing is forever in the NFL.

Other than Jerry Jones getting to take his entourage to Nobu in Malibu, the best thing for Dallas about this weekend is this matchup. In 2018, the Rams gave up 5.1 yards per rush, which is beyond an Achilles’ heel. It’s preposterous, and it’s the biggest reason why the Rams could be an endangered species when Ezekiel Elliott rolls into the Coliseum.

Elsewhere in this column I write about how impressive a football player (not just a great back; I mean a complete player) Elliott is. And the more the Cowboys are able to ride Elliott, the less of a factor Aaron Donald will be in making Dak Prescott’s life miserable.

The tale of two backs in this game—which will be the ratings bonanza of the postseason—has one big mystery: How healthy is Todd Gurley, and how productive can he be? Gurley hasn’t been himself since he saved the Rams with a 155-yard performance (rushing and receiving) at Detroit, and regardless whether he practices this week or is listed on the injury report, I won’t trust him till I see if he can dominate a game the way he did in the first half of this season. This game’s going to be closer than it looks.
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The Award Section

Ezekiel Elliott, running back, Dallas. After watching his 169-total-yard night in the 24-22 win over Seattle, I thought, This guy could have played in Jim Brown’s era and been really good. He’s the kind of smart, physical back Vince Lombardi and Paul Brown would have loved. My favorite play from Elliott: Dallas, up 17-14 with 3:41 left, was trying to run down the clock in Seattle territory.

Elliott ran around right end, stiff-armed Shaquill Griffin at the Seahawk 32, sprinted up the sideline, looked like he’d get pushed out around the 15, but ducked physically back into the field and dove down at the 13. Gain of 17. But here’s the big part of it: He took the snap with 3:41 left, and the next play was snapped at 2:51. The whole thing there is to bleed the clock AND get yards, both of which are vital. Elliott did both.

He has a sense of where he is. “He just kept coming and kept coming,” coach Jason Garrett said. “Physical toughness, mental toughness—he embodies that. He wants it at the critical moments. Boy, he was something else tonight.” Rushing: 26 carries, 137 yards, one TD. Receiving: four catches, 32 yards. A good night’s work.


View: https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1081764601962713089?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1081764601962713089&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fprofootballtalk.nbcsports.com%2F2019%2F01%2F07%2Fnfl-wild-card-weekend-fmia-eagles-chargers-peter-king%2F

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Intelligent Football

How good was Aaron Donald this year? By one measure, the Rams defensive tackle—and certain Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight year—had the best season at any position since 2006, when Pro Football Focus began measuring every player’s performance in every game.

Donald’s season grade of 123.9 is the highest PFF has given in its 13 years of ranking players. This season, it is 55.7 points ahead of second-place Fletcher Cox of the Eagles, a dominant player in his own right.

The most impressive thing about Donald’s season, to me, is that, usually playing from the defensive interior, he had 106 quarterback disruptions (sacks, hits, hurries). So imagine this: On about one of every five snaps Donald played when the opposition was going to pass, he sacked/hit/pressured the quarterback. Amazing for an interior player.

J.J. Watt is the only dominant comparable, in my opinion, in the PFF era to Donald. Watt won the Defensive Player of the Year award three times in four seasons between 2012 and 2015. Watt’s PFF grades in those years: 89.0, 94.1, 93.6, 93.9.

Donald’s greatness is beyond dispute. He’s 27. He’s healthy, with no history of significant injury. He’s five years into what should be an historic career.
 

Merlin

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Well he is absolutely correct about the Cowboys' run game vs the Rams' worst-ranked run defense. We've talked about it here, it is definitely going to be an issue for us.

Rams stuff the run they'll probably win and maybe blow the Cowboys out. If they don't it's gonna be a dogfight.
 

den-the-coach

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Rams stuff the run they'll probably win and maybe blow the Cowboys out. If they don't it's gonna be a dogfight.

That's it in a nutshell, the Rams seemed to improve against the run and then get gashed for big plays....Alfred Morris of the 49ers for example. Overall, I just don't understand why there seems to be no gap discipline and IMO, undersized inside backers do not help.

Hopefully Suh and Brockers can have a solid game, but to this point, it's a concern, however, all of us know, if the Rams cannot stop the run, they are not going to the Super Bowl.
 

Loyal

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That's it in a nutshell, the Rams seemed to improve against the run and then get gashed for big plays....Alfred Morris of the 49ers for example. Overall, I just don't understand why there seems to be no gap discipline and IMO, undersized inside backers do not help.

Hopefully Suh and Brockers can have a solid game, but to this point, it's a concern, however, all of us know, if the Rams cannot stop the run, they are not going to the Super Bowl.
or...The Rams go up two scores early in the 1st quarter, as we did often earlier in the season. Make the Cowboys think they have to keep up with us and that will take away their run game...
 

Merlin

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That's it in a nutshell, the Rams seemed to improve against the run and then get gashed for big plays....Alfred Morris of the 49ers for example. Overall, I just don't understand why there seems to be no gap discipline and IMO, undersized inside backers do not help.

Yeah and like I mentioned in another thread I watched the first half of the whiner game again and there was only one big gainer for the 9ers, and it was due to Barron overrunning the action. The lineman was getting out to second level and he tried to run around him (Littleton stuffed the fullback) creating a very big hole and allowing the back to take it back across the grain for a huge run. Didn't help that the DL was wired up to blockers too, but to my eye we're playing with one young ILB who is on the upswing but still hit/miss at times, and another who just can't do the job.

IMO we would be better served with any of the depth guys in there at ILB next to Littleton on run downs and I don't understand why Barron still hasn't been at least rotated out in those situations.
 

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At this point Barron and Littleton have to step up. This game could be all about the red zone play. Rams may not stop Elliott completely but, they have to keep mistakes to 3 points more than TDs. The Rams have to get into the end zone better than the 57% they did in the regular season.
 

Merlin

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I've mentioned this before so why not get myself mocked again... Why not try Okowrongkwo at SILB. Stick his big @$$ in there on first and second down. Dude is a physical linebacker who also moves pretty damn well in space. IMO it wouldn't take long for him to be an improvement over Barron.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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That's it in a nutshell, the Rams seemed to improve against the run and then get gashed for big plays....Alfred Morris of the 49ers for example. Overall, I just don't understand why there seems to be no gap discipline and IMO, undersized inside backers do not help.

Hopefully Suh and Brockers can have a solid game, but to this point, it's a concern, however, all of us know, if the Rams cannot stop the run, they are not going to the Super Bowl.

With a heavy pass rush, two stout inside linebackers would make sense. I was hopeful of Kiser becoming one of them, but he couldn't even pass Ran in Wilson on the depth chart. Littleton is athletic but a bit light. I'd try him at outside linebacker next year, if the Rams can draft/sign/trade better inside linebackers.
 

RamsOfCastamere

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At this point Barron and Littleton have to step up. This game could be all about the red zone play. Rams may not stop Elliott completely but, they have to keep mistakes to 3 points more than TDs. The Rams have to get into the end zone better than the 57% they did in the regular season.
I hate that 57% number because we were #1 in redzone attempts and #3 in redzone TDs. We live in that area and it skews the number. Of course there's always room for improvement.
 

Ram65

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I hate that 57% number because we were #1 in redzone attempts and #3 in redzone TDs. We live in that area and it skews the number. Of course there's always room for improvement.

IDK if it skews the numbers. It's not just inside the 20 yard line either. I would like to see the numbers. The Rams did have a lot of first downs just inside the 10 yard line this year. That makes it hard to get TDs. Still they are well behind teams like the Steelers, Chiefs, Saints and Colts as far as percentage, Those are high scoring offenses.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct
 

rking4441

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. Still they are well behind teams like the Steelers, Chiefs, Saints and Colts as far as percentage, Those are high scoring offenses.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

Just wondering why you said Those are high scoring offenses when the Rams are #2 in scoring ahead of everyone of those teams, minus the Chiefs? Maybe they are more efficient in the redzone but that does not make better scoring offenses, which is born out by the numbers.
 

RamsOfCastamere

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IDK if it skews the numbers. It's not just inside the 20 yard line either. I would like to see the numbers. The Rams did have a lot of first downs just inside the 10 yard line this year. That makes it hard to get TDs. Still they are well behind teams like the Steelers, Chiefs, Saints and Colts as far as percentage, Those are high scoring offenses.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct
True, but we were still the #2 in scoring regardless of that. Converting more would make us #1 of course. But many teams ranked ahead like Buffalo did not have as many opportunities to score as we did.
 

fearsomefour

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I've mentioned this before so why not get myself mocked again... Why not try Okowrongkwo at SILB. Stick his big @$$ in there on first and second down. Dude is a physical linebacker who also moves pretty damn well in space. IMO it wouldn't take long for him to be an improvement over Barron.
Not mocking but the guy wasn't on the active roster till a couple of weeks ago and hasn't seen the field.
Maybe next year, no way you out him in to experiment in a playoff game.
Although, the Rams run D has been so bad they've needed to do something for months.
It makes you wonder about the prospects of the guys behind Barron.
 

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Well he is absolutely correct about the Cowboys' run game vs the Rams' worst-ranked run defense. We've talked about it here, it is definitely going to be an issue for us.

Rams stuff the run they'll probably win and maybe blow the Cowboys out. If they don't it's gonna be a dogfight.

The run defense is definitely a concern. When the Falcons sealed the game with that drive, they ran maybe all but one play. I think that one was a short pass on 3rd and long that Ogletree whiffed on the tackle. They continued to run right at us and we couldn't stop it. So frustrating.
 

Ram65

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Just wondering why you said Those are high scoring offenses when the Rams are #2 in scoring ahead of everyone of those teams, minus the Chiefs? Maybe they are more efficient in the redzone but that does not make better scoring offenses, which is born out by the numbers.

The point is that they are in the red zone a lot too. Didn't say they were better scoring teams. They just convert more TDs percentage in the red zone.