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http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/14835811/carolina-panthers-fall-back-earth-2016-nfl
NFL history offers many instances of teams making it to the Super Bowl, losing that game and then never getting back to that level. The 1977 Denver Broncos, 1980 Philadelphia Eagles, 1985 New England Patriots, 2003 Carolina Panthersand 2006 Chicago Bears fit into this one-year wonder category.
The 2015 Panthers may be the next club to join this group. The Super Bowl loss hasn't hurt their current reputation, as the Panthers rank at the top of ESPN.com's Way-Too-Early Power Rankings, but there are multiple reasons to think that defeat could be just the start of a downward trend for Carolina.
Cam Newton's MVP numbers were the product of facing weak foes
Newton's 2015 campaign was really a tale of three seasons.
When he faced weak competition, such as the eight games against teams that ranked 22nd or worse in passing yards allowed per attempt (Dallas, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington), Newton posted incredible numbers. He completed 64.9 percent of his passes, racked up 8.2 yards per attempt, 7.1 yards per dropback, a 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a Total QBR of 79.0.
Carolina's schedule looks much more difficult in 2016.
Four of its five out-of-division road games are trips to the West Coast (Los Angeles, Oakland and Seattle) and a contest at Denver to face the Super Bowl champions at Mile High. The Panthers' other non-division road game is against Washington, a team that won the NFC East in 2015. Add in three home games against playoff teams (Arizona, Kansas City and Minnesota) and it equals one of the toughest non-divisional schedules in the NFL.
Kelvin Benjamin's return is not guaranteed to help this offense
One factor that might seem to be able to change Newton's performance trajectory is the return of Benjamin, who missed the 2015 season due to injury.
Benjamin could make a claim for being prolific during his rookie 2014 campaign (73 receptions for 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns), but he posted some of the worst per-attempt metrics that season.
According to my game tracking, Benjamin ranked tied for 78th out of 87 qualifying wide receivers in vertical yards per attempt (8.1 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), 67th in stretch vertical yards per attempt (9.4 yards on passes traveling 20 or more yards in the air) and tied for 69th in short yards per attempt (5.6 on targets directed 10 or fewer yards downfield). It is certainly possible Benjamin improves upon these per-attempt figures, but returning to form after an ACL injury is far from a given.
Improving NFC
The Panthers also have to deal with the improvement of the NFC. Minnesota is on the rise (ranked 10th in the aforementioned power rankings), Green Bay restocks its talent pool as well as any team in the league, and the Cardinals are tied for having the best regular-season record in the league over the past two seasons (24-8).
As daunting as those matchup challenges could be, the entire NFC has to be worried now that Russell Wilson has shown he can pilot a pass-first offense as well as any quarterback in pro football. This is a big part of why Seattle won eight of its last 10 regular-season games after starting 2-4 and is one of many reasons the Seahawks are not likely to miss the recently retired Marshawn Lynch.
Carolina will also have to contend with the potential improvements of its NFC South foes.
Atlanta's defense ranked sixth in Total QBR on vertical passes (62.6), fifth in stretch vertical Total QBR (47.9), and tied for ninth in interception percentage (2.7 percent) and ninth in percentage of opponent's drives that resulted in a turnover (13.4 percent). These are the types of building blocks that could move this team into top 10 overall territory next season.
The New Orleans defense has no place to go but up, something that could occur with improved cornerback health.
Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston progressed quite well in his rookie campaign, ranking 13th in Total QBR over the second half of the season (58.6 from Weeks 9-17). The Buccaneers also have $50 million in cap space, some of which could be spent on improving the pass rush, and they have a top 10 pick in the 2016 NFL draft.
Bottom line
The Plexiglas Principle is all but certain to assure that a team finishing 17-2 one season will have a worse record the following season. Add that to the negative factors noted above and it means Carolina will be hard-pressed to repeat as NFC champion in 2016.
NFL history offers many instances of teams making it to the Super Bowl, losing that game and then never getting back to that level. The 1977 Denver Broncos, 1980 Philadelphia Eagles, 1985 New England Patriots, 2003 Carolina Panthersand 2006 Chicago Bears fit into this one-year wonder category.
The 2015 Panthers may be the next club to join this group. The Super Bowl loss hasn't hurt their current reputation, as the Panthers rank at the top of ESPN.com's Way-Too-Early Power Rankings, but there are multiple reasons to think that defeat could be just the start of a downward trend for Carolina.
Cam Newton's MVP numbers were the product of facing weak foes
Newton's 2015 campaign was really a tale of three seasons.
When he faced weak competition, such as the eight games against teams that ranked 22nd or worse in passing yards allowed per attempt (Dallas, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington), Newton posted incredible numbers. He completed 64.9 percent of his passes, racked up 8.2 yards per attempt, 7.1 yards per dropback, a 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a Total QBR of 79.0.
Carolina's schedule looks much more difficult in 2016.
Four of its five out-of-division road games are trips to the West Coast (Los Angeles, Oakland and Seattle) and a contest at Denver to face the Super Bowl champions at Mile High. The Panthers' other non-division road game is against Washington, a team that won the NFC East in 2015. Add in three home games against playoff teams (Arizona, Kansas City and Minnesota) and it equals one of the toughest non-divisional schedules in the NFL.
Kelvin Benjamin's return is not guaranteed to help this offense
One factor that might seem to be able to change Newton's performance trajectory is the return of Benjamin, who missed the 2015 season due to injury.
Benjamin could make a claim for being prolific during his rookie 2014 campaign (73 receptions for 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns), but he posted some of the worst per-attempt metrics that season.
According to my game tracking, Benjamin ranked tied for 78th out of 87 qualifying wide receivers in vertical yards per attempt (8.1 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), 67th in stretch vertical yards per attempt (9.4 yards on passes traveling 20 or more yards in the air) and tied for 69th in short yards per attempt (5.6 on targets directed 10 or fewer yards downfield). It is certainly possible Benjamin improves upon these per-attempt figures, but returning to form after an ACL injury is far from a given.
Improving NFC
The Panthers also have to deal with the improvement of the NFC. Minnesota is on the rise (ranked 10th in the aforementioned power rankings), Green Bay restocks its talent pool as well as any team in the league, and the Cardinals are tied for having the best regular-season record in the league over the past two seasons (24-8).
As daunting as those matchup challenges could be, the entire NFC has to be worried now that Russell Wilson has shown he can pilot a pass-first offense as well as any quarterback in pro football. This is a big part of why Seattle won eight of its last 10 regular-season games after starting 2-4 and is one of many reasons the Seahawks are not likely to miss the recently retired Marshawn Lynch.
Carolina will also have to contend with the potential improvements of its NFC South foes.
Atlanta's defense ranked sixth in Total QBR on vertical passes (62.6), fifth in stretch vertical Total QBR (47.9), and tied for ninth in interception percentage (2.7 percent) and ninth in percentage of opponent's drives that resulted in a turnover (13.4 percent). These are the types of building blocks that could move this team into top 10 overall territory next season.
The New Orleans defense has no place to go but up, something that could occur with improved cornerback health.
Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston progressed quite well in his rookie campaign, ranking 13th in Total QBR over the second half of the season (58.6 from Weeks 9-17). The Buccaneers also have $50 million in cap space, some of which could be spent on improving the pass rush, and they have a top 10 pick in the 2016 NFL draft.
Bottom line
The Plexiglas Principle is all but certain to assure that a team finishing 17-2 one season will have a worse record the following season. Add that to the negative factors noted above and it means Carolina will be hard-pressed to repeat as NFC champion in 2016.
