Our 2021 UFA Class: Who stays and who goes?

[AvengerRam]

Right now, we have 12 players scheduled to be UFAs in 2021.

Two of them are newcomers who fall into the buh-bye (Kai Forbath) and the who knows (Derek Rivers) categories.

Here is how I view the rest:

THE “KEEPER” GROUP

John Johnson
Johnson is my number 1 priority, and its not close. He is a leader, and provide a great deal of versatility. While the Rams may have hoped that Taylor Rapp and Terrell Burgess would make JJ expendable, injuries have scuttled that plan. Find a way to keep this guy!

Leonard Floyd
There are two sides to this one. On the positive side, Floyd has demonstrated that he is an every down player, and he’s having a career year in sacks. On the negative side, he’s not going to go cheap, and you have to wonder how much he is benefitting from the same Aaron Donald boost that elevated the play of Dante Fowler last year. I want him back, but I’m not willing to get into a bidding war.

Austin Blythe
Blythe is not a great player, and certainly not irreplaceable, but he is a solid performer and should be an affordable piece to help keep continuity on the OL.

Jake McQuaide
Does his job and won’t be expensive.

Morgan Fox
I like Fox as a rotational guy, and would probably keep him if he seeks comparable dollars to what he currently earns ($825,000). He’s entirely replaceable, though.

THE “CAN’T KEEP EVERYONE” GROUP

Josh Reynolds
Reynolds is a very good #3 WR, but I think Van Jefferson can become as good if not better. If the Rams agree, keeping the guy who is on a rookie deal is a no brainer. Reynolds won’t have trouble finding work.

Gerald Everett
The flashes are there, but the consistency is not. Tyler Higbee is the clear #1 TE, Johnny Mundt is a capable backup, and we have a prospect in Brysen Hopkins.

Samson Ebukam
He’s had his chances, but has not been able to distinguish himself. Terrell Lewis and others can fill his role and likely produce more.

Malcolm Brown
I’m presuming that some team will offer him a nice deal. I’d like to have him back, but we just can’t afford to invest significant dollars in a guy who is, at best, part of a 3 man platoon.

Troy Hill
Darious Williams has passed him as Jalen Ramsey’s running mate. This is a spot (#3 CB) that (assuming David Long isn’t that guy) we can fill in the draft.

 

[Mister Sin]

I dont see a world that we keep Johnson or Floyd. They will both be too costly. We have great safety depth and Floyd is having himself a great 2019 Fowler season, gaining from the Donald effect.

Would like both to be here, but don't see how.

 

[ArkyRamsFan]

Good analysis, I agree with most of your conclusions. I believe, however, that the compelling question will be if we can only sign one which would it be Leonard Floyd or John Johnson?
I'm going back and forth on this one myself.

~ArkyRamsFan~

 

[FrantikRam]

If the OL we saw Monday night is for real and not just a great game, you don't blow that up. That would move Blythe up above JJ for me. I don't want to mess with the OL if it's going to be a top unit, even if we think Blythe as an individual is replaceable - he would also be cheaper than both JJ and Floyd

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Right now, we have 12 players scheduled to be UFAs in 2021.

Two of them are newcomers who fall into the buh-bye (Kai Forbath) and the who knows (Derek Rivers) categories.

Here is how I view the rest:

THE “KEEPER” GROUP

John Johnson
Johnson is my number 1 priority, and its not close. He is a leader, and provide a great deal of versatility. While the Rams may have hoped that Taylor Rapp and Terrell Burgess would make JJ expendable, injuries have scuttled that plan. Find a way to keep this guy!

Leonard Floyd
There are two sides to this one. On the positive side, Floyd has demonstrated that he is an every down player, and he’s having a career year in sacks. On the negative side, he’s not going to go cheap, and you have to wonder how much he is benefitting from the same Aaron Donald boost that elevated the play of Dante Fowler last year. I want him back, but I’m not willing to get into a bidding war.

Austin Blythe
Blythe is not a great player, and certainly not irreplaceable, but he is a solid performer and should be an affordable piece to help keep continuity on the OL.

Jake McQuaide
Does his job and won’t be expensive.

Morgan Fox
I like Fox as a rotational guy, and would probably keep him if he seeks comparable dollars to what he currently earns ($825,000). He’s entirely replaceable, though.

THE “CAN’T KEEP EVERYONE” GROUP

Josh Reynolds
Reynolds is a very good #3 WR, but I think Van Jefferson can become as good if not better. If the Rams agree, keeping the guy who is on a rookie deal is a no brainer. Reynolds won’t have trouble finding work.

Gerald Everett
The flashes are there, but the consistency is not. Tyler Higbee is the clear #1 TE, Johnny Mundt is a capable backup, and we have a prospect in Brysen Hopkins.

Samson Ebukam
He’s had his chances, but has not been able to distinguish himself. Terrell Lewis and others can fill his role and likely produce more.

Malcolm Brown
I’m presuming that some team will offer him a nice deal. I’d like to have him back, but we just can’t afford to invest significant dollars in a guy who is, at best, part of a 3 man platoon.

Troy Hill
Darious Williams has passed him as Jalen Ramsey’s running mate. This is a spot (#3 CB) that (assuming David Long isn’t that guy) we can fill in the draft.

I do not think Malcolm gets any sizable offers but as @Merlin has astutely picked up on, Browns sometimes clueless efforts my make him replaceable.

I've said it on these threads several times, that JJ is a must keep over Floyd because Floyd likely gets the bigger offer and JJ QBs the defense which is unusual for a Safety. We are once again reminded this year that you can never have enough DBs.

I love what Floyd contributes, but Lewis is a similar player in size and length. Isn't it possible that the Rams viewed him as Floyd's replacement, just as many feel Burgess is JJ's? Who is a better replacement, all things considered? In my mind Burgess, who I really like, is less proven to be JJ's replacement, due to lack of on field proof and JJ' responsibilities. Add in Staley's emphasis on pass defense with good tackling DBs and I think its important to have several good ones on the roster.

With Floyd we can assume the same problem. He's not easily replaced, but his contract could be exorbitant. With a similar player in Lewis, there is a replacement on paper. Add in Obo's good play, Hollins, and recently Ebukam too, and it could be viewed as sufficient talent at OLB and a considerable savings to let Floyd sign elsewhere, so that they could sign a cheaper JJ and a few other pieces.


I think it's a bit early to discuss this much past what's been done because we don't know exactly which free agents will be available from other teams to serve as possible replacements. We also have no idea how the cap is to be handled. If the cap were lowered it could cause some players to take team friendly one year deals so they can hold off for bigger paydays in March of 2022.

 

[fearsomefour]

I agree with your list.
I’d love to keep Reynolds and Brown too.
Depending on our cap we may not keep any of them.

 

[OldSchool]

Just my opinions

Williams gets a high tender and we keep him starting opposite #20. Only must sign I think of our free agents.

Gay if he performs is the man and keeps the job.

Floyd would be nice to keep around but unless he does a friendly deal might be gone. I think this is Fowler 2.0 and somebody signs him for more than we think he's worth and we get a 3rd round comp for him.

Johnson is the same but Joyner 2.0. Somebody is going to give this guy the money he deserves and we run with Burgess Fuller and Rapp as our 3 safeties and draft another one since Scott seems to be a ST guy.

Blythe might be kept around because he's one of those steady if unspectacular kind of guys. Would be nice to upgrade with youth but I could see him signing a similar deal to the last one.

Everett for some reason might get a good payday. I think he has the potential to be worth it he's just too inconsistent for me to want the Rams to pay him much more than he makes now. Plus with the pick of Hopkins I think they're planning on him being gone.

Reynolds is having a nice year but I think he's gone. We have Jefferson and we draft a speed guy to also return. Snead likes this years WR class I think one gets drafted maybe 2 to go with Kupp Woods and Jefferson.

Fox I think sticks around, don't think he's garnered enough attention to get a big deal and he's very nice 3-4 DE depth/rotation.

Mcvay seems to like Mundt so maybe he stays on the very cheap as the 3rd to Higbee and Hopkins.


Hill, Ebukam, Brown and Howard I think are gone.

Free agent targets

I don't know that he'll be persuaded to not play next to Darius Leonard in Indy but I think Anthony Walker Jr would be a nice signing at ILB.

 

[dang]

Good analysis, I agree with most of your conclusions. I believe, however, that the compelling question will be if we can only sign one which would it be Leonard Floyd or John Johnson?
I'm going back and forth on this one myself.

~ArkyRamsFan~

Johnson. As Fowler proved a good (not great) Edge/OLB can be very productive with our DL in place. I haven’t seen enough games but I understand Floyd is excellent at setting the edge but I don’t see paying him $14m next year to keep.

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

I've said it on these threads several times, that JJ is a must keep over Floyd because Floyd likely gets the bigger offer and JJ QBs the defense which is unusual for a Safety. We are once again reminded this year that you can never have enough DBs.

I agree because safeties of JJ's caliber are a bit more rare than quality edge guys. We have more value with JJ.

 

[BonifayRam]

Here are the four units that are mostly involved with Free Agency in less than 4 months. Snead has invested a sizeable amount of valuable draft tender in the Safety Unit & the OLB'er unit.

SAFETY UNIT
2017 3rd round pick John Johnson presently starting UFA-2021
2019 2nd round pick Taylor Rapp presently on the injured reserve under contract until 2023.
2019 7th round pick Nick Scott presently our 3rd safety under contract until 2023
2020 3rd round pick Terrell Burgess presently on the IR under contract until 2024.
2020 6th round pick Jordan Fuller presently starting under contract until 2024
2020 UDFA JR Reed presently on the Active roster ERFA-2021.
2020 UDFA Ju Ju Hughes presently on the PS ERFA-2021
2019 UDFA Jake Gervase presently on the PS ERFA-2021

OUTSIDE LB"ER UNIT
Leonard Floyd presently starting UFA-2021
2017 4th round pick Samson Ebukam presently top reserve UFA-2021
2017 3rd round pick of NE Pats Derek Rivers UFA-2021
2018 5th round pick Og Okoronkwo presently on the IR
2018 7th round pick Justin Lawler presently on the IR
2017 3rd round pick Jachai Polite presently on the active roster
2019 5th round pick of Denver Justin Hollins presently starting
2019 UDFA Natrez Patrick presently on the PS.
2020 3rd round pick Terrell Lewis presently reserve.

OFFENSIVE CENTER
Austin Blythe presently starting UFA-2021
Coleman Shelton presently reserve ERFA-2021
2017 4th round pick Brian Allen presently reserve

CORNERS
Troy Hill presently starting UFA-2021
Darious Williams presently starting RFA-2021
Jalen Ramsey presently starting under contract until 2027
Donte Deayon presently on IR UFA-2021
Tyrique McGhee presently on PS UFA-2021
2019 3rd round pick David Long reserve under contract until 2023

My priorities would be:
#1-Sign center Austin Blythe to a 3 yr contract extension.
#2-Offer CB Darious Williams a 1st round tendered offer/ once he signs the tender enter into a future contract extension.
#3-Sign center Coleman Shelton as a ERFA
#4-Attempt to sign starting LT Jospeph Noteboom a 3 yr. contract extension (Will be a UFA in 2022).
#5-Attempt to sign starting RG Austin Corbett to a 3 yr contract extension (Will be a UFA in 2022)

 

[Merlin]

I honestly have no idea who they're going to keep. Or even try hardest to keep. It could go so many ways that maybe it'll come down to who (if any) really wants to return and takes a little less money.

I do think they roll the dice on Williams by tendering him high (and knowing another team will sign him away) but who knows they might be trying to ink him right now. Whatever happens I do think teams are going to be all over our FAs. Someone may even pay Hill some good money and get us a comp pick.

 

[jrry32]

I think we can let JJ go. Don't think we have the money to keep him. I'd like to see Floyd stay, but he's another we may not be able to afford.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Here are the four units that are mostly involved with Free Agency in less than 4 months. Snead has invested a sizeable amount of valuable draft tender in the Safety Unit & the OLB'er unit.

SAFETY UNIT
2017 3rd round pick John Johnson presently starting UFA-2021
2019 2nd round pick Taylor Rapp presently on the injured reserve under contract until 2023.
2019 7th round pick Nick Scott presently our 3rd safety under contract until 2023
2020 3rd round pick Terrell Burgess presently on the IR under contract until 2024.
2020 6th round pick Jordan Fuller presently starting under contract until 2024
2020 UDFA JR Reed presently on the Active roster ERFA-2021.
2020 UDFA Ju Ju Hughes presently on the PS ERFA-2021
2019 UDFA Jake Gervase presently on the PS ERFA-2021

OUTSIDE LB"ER UNIT
Leonard Floyd presently starting UFA-2021
2017 4th round pick Samson Ebukam presently top reserve UFA-2021
2017 3rd round pick of NE Pats Derek Rivers UFA-2021
2018 5th round pick Og Okoronkwo presently on the IR
2018 7th round pick Justin Lawler presently on the IR
2017 3rd round pick Jachai Polite presently on the active roster
2019 5th round pick of Denver Justin Hollins presently starting
2019 UDFA Natrez Patrick presently on the PS.
2020 3rd round pick Terrell Lewis presently reserve.

OFFENSIVE CENTER
Austin Blythe presently starting UFA-2021
Coleman Shelton presently reserve ERFA-2021
2017 4th round pick Brian Allen presently reserve

CORNERS
Troy Hill presently starting UFA-2021
Darious Williams presently starting RFA-2021
Jalen Ramsey presently starting under contract until 2027
Donte Deayon presently on IR UFA-2021
Tyrique McGhee presently on PS UFA-2021
2019 3rd round pick David Long reserve under contract until 2023

My priorities would be:
#1-Sign center Austin Blythe to a 3 yr contract extension.
#2-Offer CB Darious Williams a 1st round tendered offer/ once he signs the tender enter into a future contract extension.
#3-Sign center Coleman Shelton as a ERFA
#4-Attempt to sign starting LT Jospeph Noteboom a 3 yr. contract extension (Will be a UFA in 2022).
#5-Attempt to sign starting RG Austin Corbett to a 3 yr contract extension (Will be a UFA in 2022)

You know how I feel about Center. I'd hope they could draft a good one that could take Shelton's place, then sign Blythe for another year to give his replacement time to learn. Blythe is a reliable snapper and does a good job with calling the line coverages, but he's undersized and not strong enough. If Shelton isn't starting now, if they don't think that Shelton can start next year, or they don't have the future center on the team in Anchrum or Corbett, then they need a future upgrade.

I don't know what the draft looks like for first round corners, but I'd rather lock Williams up than risk losing him. First round picks are not guaranteed. Hill is playing well also. I'd love it if they can keep the DBs in tact.

 

[Rams43]

Just my opinions

Williams gets a high tender and we keep him starting opposite #20. Only must sign I think of our free agents.

Gay if he performs is the man and keeps the job.

Floyd would be nice to keep around but unless he does a friendly deal might be gone. I think this is Fowler 2.0 and somebody signs him for more than we think he's worth and we get a 3rd round comp for him.

Johnson is the same but Joyner 2.0. Somebody is going to give this guy the money he deserves and we run with Burgess Fuller and Rapp as our 3 safeties and draft another one since Scott seems to be a ST guy.

Blythe might be kept around because he's one of those steady if unspectacular kind of guys. Would be nice to upgrade with youth but I could see him signing a similar deal to the last one.

Everett for some reason might get a good payday. I think he has the potential to be worth it he's just too inconsistent for me to want the Rams to pay him much more than he makes now. Plus with the pick of Hopkins I think they're planning on him being gone.

Reynolds is having a nice year but I think he's gone. We have Jefferson and we draft a speed guy to also return. Snead likes this years WR class I think one gets drafted maybe 2 to go with Kupp Woods and Jefferson.

Fox I think sticks around, don't think he's garnered enough attention to get a big deal and he's very nice 3-4 DE depth/rotation.

Mcvay seems to like Mundt so maybe he stays on the very cheap as the 3rd to Higbee and Hopkins.


Hill, Ebukam, Brown and Howard I think are gone.

Free agent targets

I don't know that he'll be persuaded to not play next to Darius Leonard in Indy but I think Anthony Walker Jr would be a nice signing at ILB.

I think you nailed it, OldSchool.

 

[TexasRam]

Priorities:

1 Williams
2 JJ
3 Blythe

I honestly don’t see any way to get both Williams and JJ back in the fold due to their level of play and our lack of cash. Unless some stars are willing to renegotiate their contracts.

Blythe can be replaced at C with Corbett and Evans can move to RG.

I personally think JJ is underrated as a a safety. His overall game is top 10-12 as a safety, when you consider his ability to cover deep and come up in run support.

 

[Mackeyser]

This is not a normal year.

Yea, in a normal year, JJ and Floyd would be too expensive to keep, but with the salary cap going down, that affects all teams.

Even for the few teams that'll have cap room, the market will be FLOODED with top and second tier vets and nowhere near the slots. Teams like NO are gonna have to dump salary like mad next year and a bunch of other teams are in a bad way even without signing all of their own guys.

Trust when I say that players will seriously have to consider a 1 year deal or a cap friendly deal with a bit of backloading or they could be sitting out the year.

I think it's very likely that we keep both JJ and Floyd.

The only reason we may not is that we feel confident in Lewis, Obo, Hollins in that spot, but yeah... can't really talk about this off-season's FA without taking the cap into account.

Some big names gonna be on the couch in 2021.

 

[OldSchool]

but with the salary cap going down

Possible but I highly doubt it goes down. Too many teams would have to fire sale players if it went down. Much more likely it stays the same for a few years to absorb any losses then goes up in 2-3 years down the road. Going down makes no sense at all to the teams/gms and yes I know what they set and they called it a floor that's the lowest it could possibly be.

 

[Merlin]

I think we can let JJ go. Don't think we have the money to keep him. I'd like to see Floyd stay, but he's another we may not be able to afford.

One of the announcers some games back (think it was Aikman) mentioned that Staley told him if he & Fangio had been in Chicago they would have kept Floyd due to his importance to the scheme. But yeah the way he's playing it's hard to imagine some teams going hard after him which means he'll be tough to keep.

But I'm with you. I fuckin love Floyd. And I don't trust Lewis yet to stay healthy.

 

[TexasRam]

This is not a normal year.

Yea, in a normal year, JJ and Floyd would be too expensive to keep, but with the salary cap going down, that affects all teams.

Even for the few teams that'll have cap room, the market will be FLOODED with top and second tier vets and nowhere near the slots. Teams like NO are gonna have to dump salary like mad next year and a bunch of other teams are in a bad way even without signing all of their own guys.

Trust when I say that players will seriously have to consider a 1 year deal or a cap friendly deal with a bit of backloading or they could be sitting out the year.

I think it's very likely that we keep both JJ and Floyd.

The only reason we may not is that we feel confident in Lewis, Obo, Hollins in that spot, but yeah... can't really talk about this off-season's FA without taking the cap into account.

Some big names gonna be on the couch in 2021.

Yea good point. Dak Prescott, Godwin and several others gonna be SOL.

Seems we can move things around to 2022 to an extent, not to mention players like Brockers and Whitworth who may be gone in '22 to really free up cash.

I'm not a capologist but it looks like we are negative 18 million next year if the cap stays at the 182 mark which I believe is the updated projected number after our 7, 674, 768 rollover cap. Though I don't know if that is even up to date due to signing kickers and such. If these numbers are correct we start the offseason asking how we can cut 18 million rather than asking who we want to re-sign.