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NFL Power Rankings: As training camps begin, the Super Bowl contenders and pretenders
Lindsay Jones Jul 26, 2021Welcome back to The Athletic’s NFL Power Rankings.
For this edition, we pulled together 31 of our NFL reporters and editors last week and put this question to them: How would you rank each team’s chances to win the Super Bowl, as the roster and coaching staff is constructed now? That certainly leaves room for interpretation, with weight to what happened in 2020 and this offseason, and consideration for what’s to come.
As for the pithy analysis, that’s from me, Lindsay Jones, one of The Athletic’s national NFL reporters. You can complain to me in the comments if your team is too low or if I was too mean. But the order? Our staff had the say.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2020 regular-season/playoff finish: 14-2, Super Bowl loss to BuccaneersThe last time we watched the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes was running for his life and his offense was ineffective in a way we’ve never seen during the Mahomes era. The Super Bowl was a bad day for Kansas City, to be sure, but we shouldn’t let that obscure just how good the Chiefs still should be in 2021. It starts with Mahomes, obviously, but Kansas City still has one of the league’s best collective of skill position players, led by tight end Travis Kelce and receiver Tyreek Hill. And with an offensive coaching staff that has shown its willingness to continue to innovate, there’s no reason to expect the Chiefs won’t be routinely scoring in bunches.
What I’m watching in camp: The Chiefs could have five different starters along the offensive line from those we saw at the Super Bowl, and that would be a good thing. The right tackle, left tackle and center spots are particularly intriguing camp battles.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 regular-season/playoff finish: 11-5, Super Bowl winnerWinning the offseason doesn’t usually count for much, but when you’re also the defending Super Bowl champions, that earns you a spot near the top of these power rankings. The Bucs were a slow burn in 2020 and peaked at the perfect time in the postseason. Now they have the benefit of continuity, a luxury few champions are afforded. It took some creativity to push some cap pain into future years in order to get all 22 of the 2020 starters back under contract, but the Bucs clearly believe it’ll be worth it.
What I’m watching in camp: It’s bonkers to think that Tom Brady played last season with a knee injury, so it’ll be interesting to see how much more effective he is in Year 2 working with the Bucs’ offensive personnel as well as with coach Bruce Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. I’m not expecting to be looking for signs of Brady’s decline; rather, I think we’ll see signs of improvement.
3. Buffalo Bills
2020 regular-season/playoff finish: 13-3, AFC Championship loss to ChiefsIf there’s any team built to become a long-term rival to the Chiefs in the AFC, it’s the Bills. Buffalo had a decent offseason; I particularly liked the signing of veteran Emmanuel Sanders to bolster the receiver group behind Stefon Diggs, and the decisions to bring back free-agent offensive linemen Jon Feliciano and Daryl Williams and re-sign linebacker Matt Milano.
What I’m watching in camp: Other than looking for new wrinkles in the offense for Josh Allen in Year 4, I want to see how much better the Bills’ defensive front might look with the addition of rookies Greg Rousseau and Carlos Basham Jr., whom Buffalo took with its first two draft selections in April. We know the blueprint for beating the Chiefs is to consistently pressure Mahomes. Are the Bills better suited now to do that?
4. Baltimore Ravens
2020 regular-season/playoff finish: 11-5, divisional loss to BillsThis time last year, Lamar Jackson was facing what were probably unfair expectations of how he’d follow up his MVP performance from 2019. Now, we’re a year further into the Jackson era in Baltimore, and it’s going to be interesting to see where the Ravens’ offense goes next. Baltimore has overhauled and seemingly improved its receiver corps, with the addition of first-round pick Rashod Bateman and veteran Sammy Watkins, but the offensive line is in flux, too, after the trade that sent tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to Kansas City.
What I’m watching in camp: Seven-on-sevens will be a must-watch to get a sense of what the Ravens’ passing game looks like after these significant changes.
5. Los Angeles Rams
2020 regular-season/playoff finish: 10-6, divisional loss to PackersAnother whirlwind offseason for the Rams, starting with the mega-trade for quarterback Matthew Stafford. His arrival and whatever changes Sean McVay will make to the offense after the move away from Jared Goff will be one of the most intriguing schematic storylines of the season.
What I’m watching in camp: The Rams’ running back situation is worth watching, and not just for fantasy football reasons. It seemed like the team was ready to go all-in on lead back Cam Akers, and now it’s starting over after Akers suffered a torn Achilles tendon this month. He’ll likely miss the entire season. Will Darrell Henderson be able to move into that role? Will it be another running back-by-committee season? Or could general manager Les Snead find someone else to add to the mix after camp starts?
6. Green Bay Packers
2020 regular-season/playoff finish: 13-3, NFC Championship loss to BuccaneersIt feels almost silly to do a pre-camp ranking for the Packers, because the variance between Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers and without him is so great. So for the purpose of this exercise, we’re going to (perhaps naively) assume that some point soon, he and the team will come to some sort of understanding that they both need each other, he’ll return to Green Bay and all will be right, at least for a few more months, in Wisconsin. With Rodgers, the Packers should once again have one of the best offenses in the NFL. The addition of rookie receiver Amari Rodgers is intriguing, and the eventual healthy return of left tackle David Bakhtiari would help fix a lot of things that went wrong in the NFC Championship Game.
What I’m watching in camp: All eyes on Rodgers or, if he’s MIA, on Jordan Love. Green Bay’s quarterback will be the No. 1 storyline all year long, but especially so as camp begins.
7. Cleveland Browns
2020 regular-season/playoff finish: 11-5, divisional loss to ChiefsOne of the things I weigh heavily when evaluating teams this time of year is whether they have a plan. With the Browns, there is no question they know who they are and who they want to be. And for a team that has gone through as much drama as Cleveland has over the past, oh, two decades, that’s encouraging. GM Andrew Berry and his staff were able to look at their 2020 roster and results and know what issues they needed to address. That turned into free-agent additions like safety John Johnson and cornerback Troy Hill, both formerly of the Rams, and defensive line depth, with veteran free agents like Jadeveon Clowney and Malik Jackson.
What I’m watching in camp: Odell Beckham Jr. missed the Browns’ playoff run because of an ACL injury, but after hearing quarterback Baker Mayfield talk up his star receiver recently, I am looking forward to seeing Beckham back at full strength and what the Browns’ run-heavy offense looks like with him in the lineup.
8. Seattle Seahawks
2020 regular-season/playoff finish: 12-4, wild-card loss to RamsFor now, it seems Russell Wilson has quashed whatever drama was brewing this offseason, and that’s good news for a Seattle team that needs him to be at his best. Our collective belief in Wilson is the reason so many of our panelists picked the Seahawks as a top-10 team. But there are still plenty of questions left unanswered, from the composition and quality of the offensive line to defensive holes, particularly at cornerback after the departure of Shaquill Griffin in free agency.
What I’m watching in camp: The Seahawks made a major offensive change by hiring new coordinator and play-caller Shane Waldon away from the Rams. What will this change mean for Wilson, who is one of the NFL’s best deep-ball throwers and improvisational passers?
9. San Francisco 49ers
2020 regular-season finish: 6-10Our voters were all over the place with the 49ers. One picked them at No. 3; two others ranked them at No. 20. So, let’s look at both cases: The optimistic view is that San Francisco was decimated by injuries last year. Perhaps with a healthy QB and Nick Bosa, a full-strength George Kittle and a deep running back corps, the 49ers can return to their 2019 form. The pessimistic view? Quarterback remains a major question, no matter if Jimmy Garoppolo retains his starting job or if the team winds up starting rookie first-round pick Trey Lance.
What I’m watching in camp: The quarterbacks, again — from carefully counting how many reps Lance gets with the first-team offense to evaluating how effective Garoppolo is when he’s with the starters, and what sort of differences we can see between the two.
10. Indianapolis Colts
2020 regular-season/playoff finish: 11-5, wild-card loss to BillsTeams going through a major quarterback change are always the hardest to gauge this time of year, and the Colts feel like an especially complicated case. They made the major move to trade for Carson Wentz following Philip Rivers’ retirement, and while there is plenty to like about their roster and their young core of skill position players (like running back Jonathan Taylor and receiver Michael Pittman Jr.), it’s hard to get too excited about them as a potential playoff team until we see tangible results from Wentz.
What I’m watching in camp: Wentz will overshadow everything else in Indianapolis. How comfortable does he look now that he’s reunited with Frank Reich? What is his pocket presence? Is he making mental errors and committing turnovers?
11. Tennessee Titans
2020 regular-season/playoff finish: 11-5, wild-card loss to RavensThe Titans pulled off one of the biggest moves of the offseason in trading for wide receiver Julio Jones from the Falcons. Even after the departure of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith (the new head coach in Atlanta), it’s exciting to think about the offensive possibilities in Tennessee. Will Jones’ addition be enough to push the Titans into the top tier of AFC teams? If nothing else, it should help their scoring output, and that’s a start.
What I’m watching in camp: The Titans are going through some significant defensive changes, but they will open camp without two of their biggest additions. Defensive end Bud Dupree is recovering from a torn ACL suffered with the Steelers and first-round cornerback pick Caleb Farley is rehabbing from back surgery. These are critical pieces for the Titans’ defense, so the sooner they can get on the field, the better.
12. Arizona Cardinals
2020 regular-season finish: 8-8We’re not hearing much (if any) dark-horse MVP buzz for Kyler Murray right now, which is different from this time last year. Yet he’s better set up for success in Year 3, thanks to a trade for veteran center Rodney Hudson, the addition of rookie receiver Rondale Moore and the benefit of just more time. Still, our voting panel picked Arizona last in the NFC West (even if all four division teams are ranked in the top 12), a reminder that even if the Cardinals are on the rise, they have a tough path to the postseason.
What I’m watching in camp: I mentioned Moore already, but I’m very curious to see Arizona’s receiving corps in the post-Larry Fitzgerald era. We all know how insanely talented DeAndre Hopkins is, but for Murray and the Cardinals’ offense to make a jump this year, they’ll need more explosive and consistent play from the rest of the group, including veteran free-agent addition A.J. Green.
