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Young Ram

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I have been following Tesla for some time now... would NEVER buy stock.

It's fascinating... the stock price is driven almost totally on emotion and promises made by Elon Musk (who, BTW, is an excellent salesperson).

Looking solely at "normal" metrics (revenue, income, debt, production), the stock price has no correlation at all.

The company has never sniffed a profit... and is burning through cash like there's no tomorrow:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-through-8-000-every-minute-amid-model-3-woes

The company is in a very precarious position right now. The Model 3, their lowest priced model that is aimed at the masses, has got to come through for them to have any chance at profitability and improve cash flows.

But, they have missed production targets by country miles:
http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-delays-model-3-production-target-again-2018-1

Somewhere in the first quarter of 2018, they will need to issue more debt to be able to continue producing Model 3's... but it's existing debt is in jeopardy of being downgraded (severely):
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckj...could-go-farther-into-the-ditch/#2ef61fbf4205

Then, there's quality concerns:
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-tesla-quality-20171114-story.html

Add all the above red flags together, and then consider the significant progress and projections from existing, well known car manufacturers:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...uture-of-electric-cars-many-models-few-buyers

So... while electric cars are definitely the future, IMO Tesla will not be the frontrunner. In fact, IMO, there's a very good possibility they may not be around, come 2020. I see the "big boys" crushing Tesla "like the cockroach it is" (quote from Mr. Wonderful :LOL:).

My take:
Poor management, too many missed production targets, quality control and - most importantly - competition, will put Tesla Motors out of business within the next two years.

Short selling remains high on the stock, but the short sellers are getting burned on the emotion uplift that remains in place. Miss enough targets and investor confidence will overwhelm the emotion and the stock will tank.

You heard it here first, folks...
Highly doubt it. The Gigafactory is not even near completion. Once it is Tesla should start meeting their high demands.
 

Rmfnlt

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Highly doubt it. The Gigafactory is not even near completion. Once it is Tesla should start meeting their high demands.
Interesting article... (long)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...factory-tesla-sustainability-gigafactory.html

Some exerpts:
Now 30 percent complete, its square footage already equals about 35 Costco stores, and a small city of construction workers, machinery and storage containers has sprung up around it.


This summer, Tesla’s stock-market valuation at times rose above those of Ford and General Motors, and its worth exceeded $60 billion. It did not seem to matter to investors that the company had never made an annual profit, had missed its production targets repeatedly…


In terms of self-driving cars, it seems likely that long-established companies — General Motors and Ford, as well as BMW and Audi — will benefit from their substantial reserves of cash and deep manufacturing experience. Because these automakers can invest deeply in research (and spend hundreds of millions of dollars to buy start-ups), they can remain competitive with companies less inherently cautious, like Tesla and Waymo, the spinoff of Google’s self-driving projects.


In the meantime, a company that has never made much profit needs to somehow figure out how to do so — that is, to put itself in the black before financial losses and missed deadlines curdle any hope that Tesla inspires, among customers or stockholders, into skepticism.


When we went inside, after a labyrinthine walk through offices and up and down stairways, we reached a rapidly moving automated factory line, where batteries were being installed into Powerwalls and Powerpacks — the residential and industrial units that store energy collected from solar panels (or any electrical generator)




Musk declined my interview requests over the course of several months. By early November, the number of Model 3 cars coming out of the factory had fallen far short of what Musk had promised, the company’s stock price had taken a nose-dive and there appeared to be serious software and robotic glitches at the Gigafactory. Musk was said to be too busy to talk, which did not always square with his social-media postings: jokes, poems, photos of tunnels he was digging, links to stories about the dangers of artificial intelligence and, in one instance, footage of a camping excursion on the roof of the Gigafactory.


One Tesla engineer I spoke with, who works on autopilot systems, maintained that the company’s camera and sensory hardware will prove good enough to get his team where it wants to go, which as a near-term goal means cars with a self-driving capability that is twice as good as a human driver (rather than 10 times as good, per the second master plan). By November, Musk was telling investors that the actual goal was to get the system simply on a par with a human driver and that that might require a more powerful computer in the cars, which Tesla would swap in free if necessary. Some customers have already paid $3,000 for a Tesla “self-driving” package (on top of the $5,000 for “enhanced autopilot”), based on Musk’s assurances that the new cars have all the hardware necessary and will be autonomous once regulations and functional software are worked out.

There’s no clear indication of whether these efforts are on track, and in the past year, several engineers who ran Tesla’s autopilot unit have left the company.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2018/01/18/two-senior-manufacturing-engineers-have-left-tesla/
http://www.morningstar.com/news/mar...esla-engineer-has-left-auto-maker-report.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-loses-autopilot-execs-2017-6


The company’s impact, real and potential, is all the more surprising considering that Musk has staked Tesla’s success on the industrial equivalent of a shoestring, lacking the resources of established carmakers. He has used customer revenue, his own wealth, venture capital, bank and government loans, investments by other automakers and the American stock and debt markets to effectively fund a multibillion-dollar research-and-development project. In that way, he has led the industry to the start of a new era. And now his company, hindered by debilitating manufacturing bottlenecks and its extravagant promises of self-driving, is poised to find out whether, in laying the groundwork for an electric and autonomous future, he took one risk too many.
 

RamFan503

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Stu
I think we have all the energy we need in the sun to power our electronics.
You may want to do a little more research into the efficiency, life span, cost, and subsidies of solar fields. There maybe plenty of energy there but harvesting it has been anything but efficient or cost effective.
 

RamFan503

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The Raiders draw. Can't deny it.

But you point out why I said the NFL and Rams don't want them as the other team in LA. Horrible fans, Philly level fans.
Not so sure about the first part there Les. I have been to 2 games in Oakland and 2 Raiduh games in LA. There were mostly Raiduh fans in Oakland - not so much in LA. Awful lot of red in the stands for the Chiefs game I went to and the Green Bay game had more cheeseheads than you could shake a stick at. So would the Raiduhs draw if they were playing in Stub Hub or the LA Coliseum? Probably not. Vegas is a totally new market. They'll probably do fine there.
 

RamFan503

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wind is good
train
Not sure I'd like to see wind farms of the magnitude it would take to take over a substantial piece of the energy market. So far, wind power is very much in its infancy and has cost far more than it has earned in means of production. A combination of all forms will likely be necessary but we are a long ways off before wind, wave, solar, etc... can honestly compete without huge subsidies.

I will say that the Tesla/Panasonic batteries have promise. Not sure how much that will help the Tesla Auto Co. but...
 

nighttrain

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I lived in the 80's on the other side of the Cochella pass in Desert Hot Springs, wind power was impressive
train
 

Mackeyser

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Oh good. So the overrated genius, Elon Musk, can get billions more in government subsidies to pay for the naming rights for Tesla.

I say we name it the Peter Schrager Worship Center

Wait, so starting the first company to successfully land a modular rocket boost module for reuse is overrated???

Some impossibly high standards around here.
 

Farr Be It

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Wait, so starting the first company to successfully land a modular rocket boost module for reuse is overrated???

Some impossibly high standards around here.
Haha. No Mack. I said overrated. Not dumb. I think his goals, though ambitious and brilliant, are foolish.

I believe the viability and necessity of settlements on Mars, or any other planet, are a fools errand. Earth is it. All the other planets are just reminders how special we are. The deeper we dive, the more obvious it becomes.

I’m all for exploring the heavens. Just not for spending billions of other people’s money for an obsessive pipe dream.

Any of you guys want to live in a space suit not able to breathe ambient air, grow crops, or have water available for drinking? Etc. etc.

Other than the Chi-coms, I think we are doing a pretty decent job of keeping our little marble shined. We can always do better. That should be the focus of Elon the Great. I’d feel a little better about him as well, if his view of our vast fossil fuel resources wasn’t so dour.

In short. I think he is misguided in all of his genius.
 

Rmfnlt

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Wait, so starting the first company to successfully land a modular rocket boost module for reuse is overrated???
Of course it's not overrated... Musk has grand ideas and dreams. And, he is to be applauded for converting these ideas into actual products.

But that's never enough... there's this silly concept of profitability that eventually comes into play.

if it were all his own money, whimsical ideas are fine. But, when he goes public with his ventures and then continues to dream - BUT NOT MAKE MONEY... well, I call that irresponsible and selfish.

He's a tremendous salesman... extremely charismatic.

But charisma don't pay the bills.

Tesla Motors hasn't made one dime of profit... and SpaceX, apparently, isn't any profit machine either:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/05/how-profitable-is-spacex-really.aspx

He consistently over-promises... and under-delivers. So far, he's managed to create enough buzz to get investors to pony up the cash he desperately needs to run his projects.

But, at the rate of cash-burn he is currently blowing through, even the most emotional investors are going to eventually say "enough".

Saw this today:
https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/01/t...raise-546-million-in-asset-backed-securities/
Important part:
"...it marks the first time that Elon’s electric albatross has turned to asset backed securities for new money(Tesla has already tapped public markets, junk bond markets, and convertible-bonds to get additional capital)"

In other words, his sources of capital are getting scarcer and scarcer... yet, his cash-burn remains at staggering levels. .

Sooner or later, you have to make money... and the hourglass is running out for Elon Musk and Tesla Motors.

He has to make money soon... or the consequences could be dire.
 

nighttrain

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Haha. No Mack. I said overrated. Not dumb. I think his goals, though ambitious and brilliant, are foolish.

I believe the viability and necessity of settlements on Mars, or any other planet, are a fools errand. Earth is it. All the other planets are just reminders how special we are. The deeper we dive, the more obvious it becomes.

I’m all for exploring the heavens. Just not for spending billions of other people’s money for an obsessive pipe dream.

Any of you guys want to live in a space suit not able to breathe ambient air, grow crops, or have water available for drinking? Etc. etc.

Other than the Chi-coms, I think we are doing a pretty decent job of keeping our little marble shined. We can always do better. That should be the focus of Elon the Great. I’d feel a little better about him as well, if his view of our vast fossil fuel resources wasn’t so dour.

In short. I think he is misguided in all of his genius.
There are literally millions of earth like planets out there, probably beings also. To think we are alone is just foolish
train
 

Young Ram

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Of course it's not overrated... Musk has grand ideas and dreams. And, he is to be applauded for converting these ideas into actual products.

But that's never enough... there's this silly concept of profitability that eventually comes into play.

if it were all his own money, whimsical ideas are fine. But, when he goes public with his ventures and then continues to dream - BUT NOT MAKE MONEY... well, I call that irresponsible and selfish.

He's a tremendous salesman... extremely charismatic.

But charisma don't pay the bills.

Tesla Motors hasn't made one dime of profit... and SpaceX, apparently, isn't any profit machine either:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/05/how-profitable-is-spacex-really.aspx

He consistently over-promises... and under-delivers. So far, he's managed to create enough buzz to get investors to pony up the cash he desperately needs to run his projects.

But, at the rate of cash-burn he is currently blowing through, even the most emotional investors are going to eventually say "enough".

Saw this today:
https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/01/t...raise-546-million-in-asset-backed-securities/
Important part:
"...it marks the first time that Elon’s electric albatross has turned to asset backed securities for new money(Tesla has already tapped public markets, junk bond markets, and convertible-bonds to get additional capital)"

In other words, his sources of capital are getting scarcer and scarcer... yet, his cash-burn remains at staggering levels. .

Sooner or later, you have to make money... and the hourglass is running out for Elon Musk and Tesla Motors.

He has to make money soon... or the consequences could be dire.

Money is the root of all evil. We as a human race cannot advance because 1% of the population controls the world economy.

We need more poeple like Musk. People who have big aspiritations for innovation and for the advancement of the human race. I hope he succeeds.
 

Rmfnlt

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Money is the root of all evil. We as a human race cannot advance because 1% of the population controls the world economy.

We need more poeple like Musk. People who have big aspiritations for innovation and for the advancement of the human race. I hope he succeeds.
How is misleading investors good?

If that thing crashes and burns, law firms will sue on behalf of the investors.

Why? Because there is a long history of Musk's "aspirations" that led people to buy his stock, only to be let down time and time again.

I do believe his intentions are good. But, if the end result is that people lose money because you lied to them, that's a crime.

At the very least, it will cost you in terms of tons of law suits.

This is all going to come to a head in 2018...
 

Young Ram

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How is misleading investors good?

If that thing crashes and burns, law firms will sue on behalf of the investors.

Why? Because there is a long history of Musk's "aspirations" that led people to buy his stock, only to be let down time and time again.

I do believe his intentions are good. But, if the end result is that people lose money because you lied to them, that's a crime.

At the very least, it will cost you in terms of tons of law suits.

This is all going to come to a head in 2018...

He’s not the first and won’t be the last to miss production quotas. If investors truly believe in the project then they stick with it. His ambition spearheaded the car industry to produce electric cars. He’s doing the same with space exploration with SpaceX.

This is why we can’t have nice things. Because people are too focused on making a profit than to make our civilization take steps forward for a better world.
 

Farr Be It

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Money is the root of all evil. We as a human race cannot advance because 1% of the population controls the world economy.

We need more poeple like Musk. People who have big aspiritations for innovation and for the advancement of the human race. I hope he succeeds.

  • Actually THE LOVE OF MONEY is the root of all evil. Money is like fire. It can serve us to meet our needs and it can become a dangerous destroyer of us, if we are not wary.
  • What is up with the envy of wealth in this generation? The human race has advanced precisely BECAUSE of the risk taking of this “evil 1%” with money to innovate, invest, hire and provide goods and services to society. (Actually, more like the upper 10%) Why are they not more admired and appreciated, rather than envied and criticized?
  • Forget, “getting a bigger piece of the pie”. Make your own friggen pie!
  • Please help me understand what aspiration of Musk will exactly “advance” the human race. Traveling to Mars? I think Elton John had it right: “Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids. In fact it’s cold as hell” -I’m going to start calling Musk “Rocket man”!
Sorry to be so harsh. I just don’t buy the premise. Rocket Man ain’t all that.
 

Rmfnlt

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He’s not the first and won’t be the last to miss production quotas.
No, he isn't. But he might be the first to have NEVER hit ANY of his targets, while NEVER making a profit.
In that context, he's a pioneer! :LOL:

If investors truly believe in the project then they stick with it.
And, up to this point, they mostly have. But there comes a time when missed projections and failure to make a profit turns investors away. That's when things get ugly.

His ambition spearheaded the car industry to produce electric cars.
There were predecessors (like the EV1: https://images.search.yahoo.com/sea...MxBHZ0aWQDVUlDMV8xBHNlYwNzYw--?p=ev1&fr=yfp-t)
But, yes, Tesla elevated the interest in EVs to unheard of levels.

He’s doing the same with space exploration with SpaceX.
Again, he's not making any money... unsustainable. Starting something, making lots of noise, then shuttering it, does little.

Because people are too focused on making a profit than to make our civilization take steps forward for a better world.
Why is it a bad thing to perfect the electric car AND make lots of money doing that? Do they have to be mutually exclusive? You sound like making a profit is a bad thing... it doesn't have to be. I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess maybe you really like Apple. If you do, are they bad because they make tons of money?

Again, I don't think Tesla makes it... but GM? Ford? BMW? Audi, VW? Yeah, I'd predict those companies will perfect the electric car and make lots and lots of money and provide nice returns for their investors (something Tesla will not be able to do unless they start making a profit).
 

Young Ram

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  • Actually THE LOVE OF MONEY is the root of all evil. Money is like fire. It can serve us to meet our needs and it can become a dangerous destroyer of us, if we are not wary.
I can guarantee you 99% of people love money. It’s a necessary evil to live in this world.
  • What is up with the envy of wealth in this generation? The human race has advanced precisely BECAUSE of the risk taking of this “evil 1%” with money to innovate, invest, hire and provide goods and services to society. (Actually, more like the upper 10%) Why are they not more admired and appreciated, rather than envied and criticized?
Money = power. This 1% has the power to control any market. You know why I dislike them? Let me give you an example. Us taxpayers paid 400 Billion dollars to the big telecom companies, Verizon, ATT etc. to give us the people a fiber internet future. You know what they did? Absolutely nothing. And here we are paying ridiculous amounts of money for shitty internet and you know what? We can’t do anything about it because they have the FCC in their pocket.
  • Forget, “getting a bigger piece of the pie”. Make your own friggen pie!

Hard to make your own pie when your pie gets burnt before you even put it in the oven.

  • Please help me understand what aspiration of Musk will exactly “advance” the human race. Traveling to Mars? I think Elton John had it right: “Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids. In fact it’s cold as hell” -I’m going to start calling Musk “Rocket man”!
There could be vast resources we could mine. New discoveries to help aid. Or how about just a back up plan? What if a meteor destroyed our earth? It happened before. What if idiots decide to have a nuclear war that ruin the world? What options do we have if life on earth is no longer sustainable? We don’t have none.
 

-X-

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What if a meteor destroyed our earth? It happened before. What if idiots decide to have a nuclear war that ruin the world? What options do we have if life on earth is no longer sustainable? We don’t have none
Hey, it's the Happiness Hour! With your host, @Young Ram