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So... now that we're through most of the talent movement/acquisition phase of the offseason, which teams are most likely to break into, and fall out of, the playoffs in 2022.
Here are my lists:
Most Likely Party Crashers
1. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts just missed the playoffs last year, and responded by replacing Carson Wentz with Matt Ryan. I also like the additions of Yannick Ngakoue, Stephon Gilmore and Nick Cross to an already strong defense. I could easily see them jumping over the Titans and winning the AFC South.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
Another team that was on the cusp last year, and made splash moves by trading for Khalil Mack and signing J.C. Jackson. I'm not sure they've solved their run defense problem but, more importantly, their division is a beast. Still, I think that they have a strong chance of making it to the postseason in 2022.
3. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens imploded last year when Lamar Jackson was injured. They need to keep him healthy this year. As for their other injury bug issues... a strong draft provides them with great depth, and a couple of immediate impact starters in Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum.
4. Cleveland Browns
This one comes down to the status of newly acquired QB Deshaun Watson. If (1) the Browns can win without him if he is suspended for several games, and (2) he regains his form from two years ago, the Browns have a ton of talent and should be a playoff contender. I still see some disfunction in this organization, though, so I wouldn't be my house on them.
5. New Orleans Saints
I considered going with the Broncos here, but how many AFC teams can crash the party? The NFL seems a bit more static at this point, with most of the teams that made the postseason positioned to return. The Saints, though, could be the team that breaks through, as they have a very strong defense, and could have a great receiving corps with the return of Michael Thomas and the addition of Chris Olave. Its going to come down to the QB play, which is definitely a concern, and will likely be their ultimate downfall.
Most Likely to Fall From Grace
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were lucky to make it last year, and now will be starting either Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett at QB. The Ravens' and Browns' rise will be the Steelers' fall in the NFC North.
2. New England Patriots
Another playoff team from last year that really didn't impress me that much. They will face much tougher competition within their own division. The Bills are stacked, and the Jets and Dolphins (who are not "party crashers" because I don't trust their QBs) are much improved. It would not shock me if the Patriots struggle to win 8-9 games in 2022.
3. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders improved their roster this offseason, adding Davante Adams and Chandler Jones, and could nonetheless drop out of the playoff picture. A big reason is that the rest of their division also improved significantly. I'm guessing some will disagree with me here, but I see the Raiders as a likely "odd man out."
4. Philadelphia Eagles
As I have one NFC party crasher, I feel like I should identify the team they're likely to replace. I consider Arizona, a team that really fell off the rails late last year, but the Eagles are my choice. I just don't trust their QB play, and they're not exceptional in any phase of the game.
5. Tennessee Titans
This one may be a reach, but I feel like there very well could be a 10 win team in the AFC that will miss the dance. The Titans could be that team, as they have the least reliable QB among the playoff contenders, and will face tougher competition from the Colts within their own division.
Here are my lists:
Most Likely Party Crashers
1. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts just missed the playoffs last year, and responded by replacing Carson Wentz with Matt Ryan. I also like the additions of Yannick Ngakoue, Stephon Gilmore and Nick Cross to an already strong defense. I could easily see them jumping over the Titans and winning the AFC South.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
Another team that was on the cusp last year, and made splash moves by trading for Khalil Mack and signing J.C. Jackson. I'm not sure they've solved their run defense problem but, more importantly, their division is a beast. Still, I think that they have a strong chance of making it to the postseason in 2022.
3. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens imploded last year when Lamar Jackson was injured. They need to keep him healthy this year. As for their other injury bug issues... a strong draft provides them with great depth, and a couple of immediate impact starters in Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum.
4. Cleveland Browns
This one comes down to the status of newly acquired QB Deshaun Watson. If (1) the Browns can win without him if he is suspended for several games, and (2) he regains his form from two years ago, the Browns have a ton of talent and should be a playoff contender. I still see some disfunction in this organization, though, so I wouldn't be my house on them.
5. New Orleans Saints
I considered going with the Broncos here, but how many AFC teams can crash the party? The NFL seems a bit more static at this point, with most of the teams that made the postseason positioned to return. The Saints, though, could be the team that breaks through, as they have a very strong defense, and could have a great receiving corps with the return of Michael Thomas and the addition of Chris Olave. Its going to come down to the QB play, which is definitely a concern, and will likely be their ultimate downfall.
Most Likely to Fall From Grace
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were lucky to make it last year, and now will be starting either Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett at QB. The Ravens' and Browns' rise will be the Steelers' fall in the NFC North.
2. New England Patriots
Another playoff team from last year that really didn't impress me that much. They will face much tougher competition within their own division. The Bills are stacked, and the Jets and Dolphins (who are not "party crashers" because I don't trust their QBs) are much improved. It would not shock me if the Patriots struggle to win 8-9 games in 2022.
3. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders improved their roster this offseason, adding Davante Adams and Chandler Jones, and could nonetheless drop out of the playoff picture. A big reason is that the rest of their division also improved significantly. I'm guessing some will disagree with me here, but I see the Raiders as a likely "odd man out."
4. Philadelphia Eagles
As I have one NFC party crasher, I feel like I should identify the team they're likely to replace. I consider Arizona, a team that really fell off the rails late last year, but the Eagles are my choice. I just don't trust their QB play, and they're not exceptional in any phase of the game.
5. Tennessee Titans
This one may be a reach, but I feel like there very well could be a 10 win team in the AFC that will miss the dance. The Titans could be that team, as they have the least reliable QB among the playoff contenders, and will face tougher competition from the Colts within their own division.
