Manziel Should Be The Texans Pick At #1

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CGI_Ram

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http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2014/story/_/id/10530342/johnny-manziel-houston-texans-man

Even with so much time still left in the pre-draft evaluation process, it's already looking like theHouston Texans would be foolish to not draft Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel with the first overall pick. Manziel has made it known that he would love to remain in his home state as a pro. The Texans also would be crazy to not take a quarterback when that is the most pressing need on this team. Add in the fact that there isn't a dramatically better signal-caller in this class than Manziel, and you can see where this is going. The Texans might have a hard time selling any other choice to their fan base.

The easy assumption is that Houston is facing the same situation that Vince Young created for them in 2006, when the former University of Texas star and Houston native was dying to join his hometown team after a brilliant college career. It's not. The Texans were smart enough to see they had more attractive options in that class, namely defensive end Mario Williams (whom they eventually selected with that year's first overall pick) and running back Reggie Bush. Manziel is a more polished, electrifying talent than Young ever was, one who would be a marketing dream for the Texans' support staff.

It's also worth noting that this year's quarterback class doesn't have a player who transcends all others. For all the red flags that critics like to attach to Manziel, Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater and Central Florida's Blake Bortles have their own shortcomings. Bridgewater has a frame so slight that scouts question how he'll handle the pounding at the next level. Bortles has produced one sensational year during his college career, which could make him the next Mark Sanchez. In other words, it's not as if the Texans are going to be bailed out by some prospect morphing into the next Andrew Luck in the coming months.

Instead, Houston might have to accept that Manziel is their man, so long as he doesn't flop at his pro day. If he weren't coachable — and some already wonder how he would co-exist with Texans head coach Bill O'Brien, a man who made his name tutoring Tom Brady in New England — he wouldn't have vaulted to stardom in only two seasons at A&M. If Manziel had a lousy work ethic, another commonly mentioned concern, he wouldn't have been grinding under quarterback guru George Whitfield since before anybody ever knew his name outside of College Station. And if Manziel really is overrated, he wouldn't have someone like former Oklahoma andDallas Cowboys head coach Barry Switzer talking about how he'd never seen a player dominate college football as Manziel did over the past two seasons.

Switzer's comments drive home the most important point concerning Manziel right now: He's the most dynamic signal-caller in this class. With all due respect to ESPN NFL analyst Ron Jaworski — who recently claimed that early film study led him to believe Manziel wasn't worth a pick in the first three rounds — playing quarterback in the league these days isn't just about dominating from the pocket any more. It's about making plays out of nothing, when all hell is breaking loose around you.

That one aspect of Manziel's game means he'll have a chance to prosper and possibly help an NFL team right away. Look at what Michael Vick did for the Atlanta Falcons in his first full season as a starter, when he led that team to the playoffs one year after being the top pick in the 2001 draft. We should also remember the buzz Carolina's Cam Newton created in his first season as well as the way San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick blew up with the 49ers once he became a starter. These players thrived early because they could make plays with their feet. Manziel could do exactly the same things for the Texans.

Aside from that, Manziel already is proving that he wants to take professional football seriously. He made a good enough impression at the combine that many teams came away feeling that he was more mature than they anticipated. He's also kept a relatively low profile since declaring for the draft, including making the wise decision to not attend this year's Super Bowl in order to continue focusing on his training. For all the comments about Manziel's partying lifestyle — which have reached the point that you'd swear he was the love child of Charlie Sheen and Lindsay Lohan — he clearly understands this is the time when he needs to alter that perception.

It's also clear that Houston shouldn't be afraid of a quarterback with a few warts in his past. The Texans' previous two regular starters, Matt Schaub and David Carr, were incredibly nice guys. But Houston fans weren't praising Schaub's professionalism when he was throwing pick-six after pick-six last season before eventually losing his job. They also weren't that compassionate toward Carr, who was beaten into submission behind a porous offensive line before being run out of town.

In fact, it's fair to say Houston could use a lot more fiery personalities on its roster. For all the success that Pro Bowl defensive end J.J. Watt has enjoyed in his brief career, he's not exactly an inspirational force. The same can be said of other Texans stars, including laid-back types such as wide receiver Andre Johnson and running back Arian Foster. Every team needs a player who is the emotional leader. Even Manziel's biggest haters have to admit his on-field passion gives him a chance to be that kind of player in Houston.

Now does that mean there won't be challenges if Manziel ends up in Houston? No. He will have to deal with the same learning curve that faces every young quarterback in this league. The upside is that more inexperienced signal-callers are growing at a faster rate these days (see:Nick Foles, Philadelphia) and the cost of using a high pick on a rookie quarterback isn't nearly as frightening as it was a few years back.

The question now is whether Houston has the courage to take a chance on Manziel. He's already dominated the toughest conference in college football and proven that he's willing to be more than just a playground playmaker. In fact, we just may be seeing a glimpse of what Johnny Manziel could become in the near future. And as he publicly said, the Texans will surely hate themselves if they end up watching that maturation from an opposing sideline.
 

CGI_Ram

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And the opposing argument;

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/118567/projecting-johnny-manziel-magic-in-nfl

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Russell Wilson's success is the worst thing that could have happened to the 2014 draft debate. Suddenly, no one thinks twice about projecting an exciting but undersized quarterback prospect as the No. 1 overall pick.

Here is the problem: Johnny Manziel is no Russell Wilson, who proved off the charts in every way except height in 2012 -- and still lasted until the Seattle Seahawks drafted him in the third round. There seems little doubt that someone will make Manziel a first-round draft choice this spring, but the Houston Texans would be wrong to do it at No. 1 overall. The best parts of his college game will be less effective in the NFL, and there are at least four players in this draft -- including two quarterbacks -- who would make more sense at No. 1.

I discussed Manziel at length this week with Steve Muench of Scouts Inc., which evaluates and ranks college players for ESPN. Neither of us is sitting in the Texans' personnel meetings, of course, but we agreed on this set of scenarios if it were up to us:

If the Texans want a fresh start at quarterback to begin the Bill O'Brien Era, which makes perfect sense, they would be better off with Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater. If they are concerned about Bridgewater's stature or "upside," O'Brien's background as a quarterback guru would justify the selection of Central Florida's Blake Bortles, who probably needs some development time.

Should O'Brien desire a lower-round quarterback to develop, Auburn left tackle Greg Robinson is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. And if the Texans are willing to take a risk in exchange for perhaps the biggest reward of the 2014 draft, South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney would look awfully imposing on the same defense with All-Pro defensive lineman J.J. Watt.

Manziel isn't a risky pick as much as he would simply be overrated at No. 1 overall. The myth begins with the idea that Wilson paved the way for Manziel to be accepted by NFL talent evaluators in a way that he was not. It's true both measured under 6-feet at their respective combines, and each ran the second-fastest 40 times for quarterbacks there. But Wilson's time was notably faster (4.55 compared to 4.68), and his hand measurement (10 1/4 inches compared to 9 7/8) gives him more control and better accuracy. His legendary leadership qualities, meanwhile, stand in contrast to Manziel's uneven off-field resume.

Most important, Wilson demonstrated in his final college season that he could excel as a pocket passer. Manziel struggled in that regard against SEC schools such as LSU and Missouri last season, requiring far more projection work than should be necessary for the No. 1 overall pick.

There is no doubt Manziel has some unique physical traits and running instincts that helped him make some special plays at Texas A&M. But an NFL team hoping to capture that magic outside of the pocket is going to be disappointed, according to Muench.

"What he's known for is his ability to extend plays and make highlight reel-type plays," Muench said. "That's entertaining and exciting to watch, but it doesn't really translate well to the NFL in the long term. He's going against better athletes who will do a better job of keeping him bottled up. The SEC is the best college conference, but it's not the NFL. There will be better athletes doing a better job of keeping him in the pocket there. Defensive coordinators, the more tape they see of his tendencies, the tougher it's going to be for him to win with pure athletic ability.

"What we haven't seen, and maybe I'm being especially tough on him, is consistent success in the pocket. I don't know what he brings to you there. I think he has a hard time seeing the field. Has a hard time getting rid of the ball quickly. He's always trying to make something big happen."

Scouts Inc. gave Manziel a "4" rating for accuracy,
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which is below average. If you're considering him at No. 1 overall, you're either planning an offense that features him scrambling as a primary strategy -- an unenviable task for a 5-11, 207-pound player -- or you're hoping he can remake his game. All successful NFL quarterbacks, regardless of athletic ability, make plays consistently from the pocket. In my mind, the No. 1 overall pick shouldn't enter the league needing a makeover.

"If you're a general manager," Muench said, "you ask, is this a quarterback who can take us to the Super Bowl? I'm not sure how you can be confident saying that given what Manziel will be up against. Can he make those changes? Sure. But that's a lot of projecting."

So what then? The Texans need a long-term plan at quarterback, and if they decide to go that route in 2014, Muench suggests Bridgewater because of his accuracy, sophistication in the pocket and toughness. Bortles is bigger, but still has good pocket mobility and, Muench said, "I wouldn't argue with them if that's who they decided to draft."

Robinson will be some team's left tackle for the next decade, but the Texans are two years removed from signing incumbent Duane Brown to a $53.4 million contract. That brings us to Clowney, who shook up the combine by running his 40 faster than Manziel -- and Wilson, for that matter -- at 4.53 seconds. Pass-rushers are perhaps the second-most valued commodity in football after quarterbacks, and the role of dominant defensive fronts in recent Super Bowl victories -- the 2007 New York Giants and 2013 Seahawks, among others -- makes Clowney a tempting choice to pair with Watt.

Clowney requires some projection, but it's a different kind than Manziel. To take Clowney at No. 1 overall, you must believe that his freakish athletic skills will generate more production in the NFL than they did in college. To be fair, that is hardly an unprecedented expectation. Last season's No. 5 overall pick, Detroit Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, nearly doubled his college sack total (4.5) as an NFL rookie (8.0). It can happen.

I will admit 2014 is the Year of Manziel. If you have a pick in the top half of the first round, one of your first decisions is to make a call on him. We've done that. The assessment here, based on Muench's extensive feedback, is the Texans would be better off taking Bridgewater, Bortles, Robinson or Clowney than Manziel at No. 1.
 

Thordaddy

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Good to see our #1 pick in the picture,(2015 that is)
How prophetic they come from Missouri City Texas
 

fearsomefour

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Arm strength issues, one look and run QB, accuracy issues, size concerns....I wouldn't take Manzeil in the first round period. He can run like the wind but all the hype in the world doesn't change facts.
The NFL is and will be about QBs making throws from the pocket.
Big no thanks on Manzeil.
 

tbux

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Im on record to say he will be a bust. Only chance he wont is if he ends up in Houston- but I dont think there is much chance of that- O'Brien likes the bigger pocket passers- and I think Bortles will be their guy- and I tend to agree if that happens- I think he will be a better NFL QB.
 

Ramsey

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I like Johnny Manzeil. Manziel's instincts are off the charts. Manziel is smart. Really! In 2013, Manzie ran the ball 65 less times then 2012, and he threw 14 more TD passes then his Heisman year. Manziel plays big in big games.

I believe he will eventually be all-pro. I'm not basing my opinion on hype. I've seen every college game Manziel has played. He will surprise his critics, by opting more often to extend plays, then run. Manziel knows how hard NFL linebackers and safeties hit. He knows he must adapt his game to the NFL. Manziel has an aggressive personality type, which translates into leadership.
 

tbux

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I like Johnny Manzeil. Manziel's instincts are off the charts. Manziel is smart. Really! In 2013, Manzie ran the ball 65 less times then 2012, and he threw 14 more TD passes then his Heisman year. Manziel plays big in big games.

I believe he will eventually be all-pro. I'm not basing my opinion on hype. I've seen every college game Manziel has played. He will surprise his critics, by opting more often to extend plays, then run. Manziel knows how hard NFL linebackers and safeties hit. He knows he must adapt his game to the NFL. Manziel has an aggressive personality type, which translates into leadership.


With Manziel- it is surely love or hate- not many in between. I dont think his game will translate, but I can see why those that do, like you, believe. HE will either be a very god pro, all pro type, or bust, I really think that. I am on the side of bust- but you never know. I think he needs to land in a place conducive to his style and a team with a good run game and weapons to take pressure off- like what RW and Kap have had. If he ends up in Jax or Cle or Minn- dont like his chances. Gonna be interesting
 

Elmgrovegnome

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I think Manziel will flop as an NFL QB. He reminds me of Vick more than Tarkenton. Only Vick had a stronger arm. He will look to run far too often. Even when Vick was being retrained to be a pocket passer and looked good doing so, he eventually reverted back to his instincts to run and it ruined him. Manziel will always be a run first QB.