Les Snead: Case will be our starting qb at start of season

[Mackeyser]

Well put. Not that we don't all know this, but it's well put.

I'm gonna end up in that CVS parking lot, aren't I?

 

[LumberTubs]

So what would you have done to bolster the Rams QB situation had you been Fisher or Snead at the beginning of free agency? What QB was out there waiting to be signed that would have improved things?

And picking at #15 in the draft, what QB would you select that could come in right away and turn things around? Trade up and lose draft picks or players? Would you select one to have him sit on the bench and learn his craft? Isn't that what Mannion is for? You have a lot of questions tonight grasshopper!

I was listening to the Around the NFL podcast on the way to work this morning and they led with this story.

They were saying we could've traded for Glennon or Kap or gone and got Fitz as a free agent. Now if those alternatives were in any way appealing I'd be on board with that but the fact is that neither Glennon nor Kap are any better than Keenum. Kap is worse in my view. Last season broke him.

Fitz may be better but let's not pretend he's anything other than a QB coming off one good season in a system that suits him. He would not fit in with what Fisher is doing.

I don't consider Keenum to be the long term solution by any means but - news flash - finding a franchise QB is hard.

 

[-X-]

defensive backs such as Richard Sherman. He always believes he can beat them.

That probably has to do with the fact that he has beaten them.


View: https://youtu.be/nu95amOu2KA


Those are a lot of discouraging words about Keenum by Cian Fahey (who I happen to like), but I still maintain that a dominant receiver could mitigate a lot of those "almost interceptions", and even improve that pretty chart he made. Case in point...

Jared Cook's poor tracking of this ball, and his limited ability to adjust to it, only reinforces my point. Does Dez Bryant or AJ Green look this clumsy in a jump ball situation? Imagine the comments that ensue about this throw if one of those guys are on the receiving end of it and actually come down with it. "Smart move to put it where your playmaker can make a play on it" and "Keenum buys enough time to get the ball to the one guy who can come down with it" and so on. I love everything about that play except the end of it. And if Wentz throws that same exact ball, is it all of a sudden catchable?

There have been thesis statements like that one by Cian written about Bradford too when he was coming up (really bad ones) and most recently he was given the 2nd highest grade by (I believe) this same author in the same category of accuracy percentage on catchable throws. So do we doom Keenum based on the analysis of his first year starting for the Rams, or do we try to get a damn receiver capable of making QBs live up to their full potential? Because I truly believe that a shiny new QB is gonna walk in the same shoes that Bradford left behind unless or until we improve the situation around the QB.

And again, if we make a move to draft one of the top two QBs, I'm fine with that too. This isnt, nor has it ever been, a "Keenum or bust" argument I'm putting out there. Just a synopsis of where I think we'd benefit the most in the long-term.

 

[shaunpinney]

Nice way of looking at it @-X- .

I've gone back to look at some of high highlight reels etc, he looks good, lets just hope he gets given the reigns

https://www.youtube.com/embed/SFw3ZNZQQ4M?rel=0&controls=0&showinfo=0

This is also an interesting watch:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/sA8UewJPnJQ?rel=0&controls=0&showinfo=0

 

[Mojo Ram]

This isnt, nor has it ever been, a "Keenum or bust" argument I'm putting out there.

[av]http://www.wavsource.com/snds_2016-03-13_7646817315637486/movies/apocalypse_now/apocalypse_terminate.wav[/av]

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Well Cian just reminded me of the parts of Keenums game that I was trying to forget.

Even if a rookie won't start immediately the Rams need a better one. I hope they can find one by the 2017 season.

 

[-X-]

[av]http://www.wavsource.com/snds_2016-03-13_7646817315637486/movies/apocalypse_now/apocalypse_terminate.wav[/av]

 

[Legatron4]

Case Keenum and the Los Angeles Rams Apathy Towards The Quarterback Position
Cian Fahey
http://presnapreads.com/2016/03/22/...rams-apathy-towards-the-quarterback-position/

We’ve come to the point where we just accept the Los Angeles Rams for who they are. The Rams haven’t gone .500 since 2006. Jeff Fisher has been in charge for the past four seasons and has won seven games on three occasions.

Fisher’s decidedly mediocre results would be more encouraging if the Rams appeared to have a plan. When they executed the Robert Griffin III trade, they acquired a huge amount of draft capital that allowed them to create an extremely talented roster. However, injuries to Sam Bradford and a misguided trade to Nick Foles have curtailed their available talent at the quarterback position.

Despite trading for Foles and drafting Sean Mannion last offseason, Fisher named Case Keenum as his starting quarterback entering the offseason. Naming a starting quarterback for the offseason is a peculiar move on its own, but it’s even more bizarre when that quarterback is Keenum.

Rams General Manager Les Snead took Fisher’s statement one step further this week. Snead said that Keenum would be the starter in Week 1.

This changes the outlook substantially. Keenum replaced Foles last year to start five games. He finished the season as the starter so it was easy to explain away Fisher’s first comment. The fact that Fisher said Keenum would “come back as the starter” and talked about adding competition also meant that the commitment to him had limited value moving forward.

Snead has changed that by projecting where Keenum is expected to be moving forward. Now it’s time to consider Keenum as a legitimate option for the Rams in 2016. Comments during the offseason should always be taken with a grain of salt, the Rams themselves committed to Sam Bradford as their starter early on during last year’s offseason. However, at this point with free agency dwindling away, the words carry more meaning because the options are disappearing.

When Fisher made those comments initially, he elaborated on his reasoning:

“I have confidence in Case,” Fisher said. “Case is an incomplete pass and a field goal away from potentially being 5-0 as a starter. He’s managing things well. He worked really well with (offensive coordinator) Rob [Boras] and (quarterbacks coach Chris) Weinke over the last few weeks and I feel good about his development. I think he’s got a chance to be a really good quarterback.”

Fisher has a track record of pointing to a quarterback’s win-loss record when discussing the quarterback position. If you’ve followed this website at all, you’ll likely know that’s not the way we do things here.



The above chart tracks every throw that Case Keenum threw in 2015. He had 125 official attempts last year, but not all qualified for inclusion on the chart. Intentional throwaways, passes tipped at the line of scrimmage and throws where he was hit during his release weren’t included. That is because this chart doesn’t track completions and incompletions.

It tracks Keenum’s accuracy. Every green tick is an accurate throw and every red cross is an inaccurate throw. Keenum had an Accuracy Percentage of 76.8 percent, accurately throwing 86 of 112 passes.

His 76.8 percent accuracy rating would rank 20th out of the 36 quarterbacks who have undergone this analysis for the 2015 season. He would have been one spot behind Joe Flacco and one spot above Kirk Cousins. He was significantly closer to the worst(71.9 percent) of the 36 quarterbacks than the best(83.5 percent).

In the above chart, you will notice that the first section is labelled “Simple YAC.” This section includes any throw where the ball didn’t travel further than two yards past the line of scrimmage. It’s this section that bloats Keenum’s Accuracy Percentage.

Keenum had 26 throws qualify for Simple YAC in 2015.

That means 23.2 percent of his throws qualified, only 13 other quarterbacks finished the season with at least 23.0 percent of their throws qualifying as Simple YAC. Keenum is an aggressive quarterback, he’s a gunslinger really, but the Rams offense featured a large number of screens and simple throws. Teammate Nick Foles finished the year with 25.5 percent of his throws qualifying for Simple YAC.

Despite playing in an offense that was designed to keep give him easier reads, note the limited number of intermediate throws in the pass chart above, Keenum still had ball security issues.

Traditional stats suggest that he took care of the ball. Keenum threw one interception all season. When you look past the official stats and consider passes that could or should have been intercepted, Keenum comes out looking much worse.

Keenum had five passes last year that were deemed as Interceptable. He threw an Interceptable pass once every 25 attempts. 22 quarterbacks had a better Interceptable Pass Rate than him last season and many of those who did played in a much more tasking scheme.

Most of those quarterbacks offered more to their offenses in terms of overall effectiveness also.



What makes Keenum’s Interceptable Pass Rate worse than it appears on the onset is the offense he played in but also the types of throws he made. He failed both because of poor decisions and bad accuracy, it wasn’t simply that he had one recurring error that needs to can be corrected.

His worst throw of the season can be seen in the above gif.

Having just received a punt from the Buccaneers late in the second quarter while leading by more than two touchdowns, Keenum’s priority in this situation should be to take care of the ball at all costs. Instead, he throws an awful pick-six to Danny Lansanah who masks his mistake by dropping the ball.

From the quirky but mostly irrelevant department: Keenum’s only actual interception last year wasn’t an Interceptable Pass because Interceptable Passes have to be the quarterback’s fault. Plays where the quarterback is hit as he releases the ball are put into a separate category with other plays where the quarterback wasn’t the sole protagonist for the result of the play.



Keenum is a gunslinger. He wants to unleash the ball downfield every time he drops back in the pocket. The problem is Keenum’s arm can’t carry out the orders his brain offers up. He’s not a structured quarterback, he thinks he’s Brett Favre.

He is happy to hold the ball in and outside of the pocket while showing off the athleticism and elusiveness to create time in space.

In the above play, Keenum’s first option is Todd Gurley in the flat. His throwing lane is disrupted and there is a linebacker waiting for Gurley so he makes a smart decision to pull the ball down. Once he turns infield, he is confronted with a defensive lineman. He has nobody open downfield but doesn’t panic.

Noting the point of the game is important at this point. It’s First-and-10 late in the first quarter with the game tied 0-0. Keenum can scramble at an angle to his right for four or five yards, maybe more if he eludes a defender in space. Instead, he winds up and heaves the ball downfield.

The problem is, Keenum’s downfield throw doesn’t travel downfield as much as it travels up into the sky. His pass is severely underthrown.

Jared Cook would have had a chance to run underneath a long touchdown throw if Keenum had executed this play correctly. Instead he has to recognize the flight of the ball and work back to it to draw the defensive pass interference penalty. Even though this throw worked out well for the offense, it wasn’t a good one from Keenum.

That game against the Baltimore Ravens was Keenum’s first start of the season and he was intent on making the most out of it by being aggressive.



On this play from early in the second quarter, Keenum looks to push the ball down the left sideline. He needs to lead Tavon Austin deep down the sideline to give him any chance at making a play on this ball. His pass floats and arrives too far infield, asking a receiver who can’t win contested catches to pull the ball away from the waiting defensive back.

Austin can’t make an unlikely catch but does enough to prevent the interception.



Keenum threw four touchdowns last season. One came in this game on a designed throwback after play action where his target was left completely alone downfield. He could afford to float that pass because there wasn’t a defender around to disrupt him. The misdirection of the Rams offense could again be seen on this play, but this time Keenum’s arm strength was a problem.

Britt was in behind the defense for a long touchdown on a good throw. A bad throw gave him the chance to work back through the defender for pass interference. Britt did that and the official threw the flag, but Keenum’s pass was so bad it was deemed uncatchable.

The flag was picked up.

It’s not that Keenum is completely incapable of making precise deep throws, it’s just that his arm strength makes him extremely inconsistent.





The first of these two throws is physically more impressive even though it’s a shorter one than the second. What makes the second so notable is the defender he’s throwing at. Keenum’s mindset isn’t to avoid defensive backs such as Richard Sherman. He always believes he can beat them.

For better or worse, that’s who he is.

Keenum isn’t a precision passer. He doesn’t mitigate pressure in the pocket with subtle movement and he stares down his first option too often. He’s not Tyrod Taylor, a starting-caliber quarterback who was forced to wait until later in his career to prove himself.

In 2013, Keenum started eight games for the Houston Texans and played largely how he played for the Rams this past season. He returned to the Texans late on during the 2014 season to start another two games having spent time on the Rams roster during the regular season.

Forgetting about the Rams and their apparent apathy towards their own starting quarterback would be easy, but we shouldn’t do that. The Rams are competent quarterback play away from being a legitimate threat in the NFC. They may have lost pieces but they still possess transcendent talents on both sides of the ball.

During his rookie season, Todd Gurley quickly established himself as one of the best backs in the NFL. He is the type of transcendent talent who makes everyone around him better by just being on the field. Run blocking is easier because of his creativity while throwing the ball downfield should be easier because of how the run game dictates the defense’s personnel/alignment.

Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn are not just two of the best players in the league at their positions, they are two of the 10 best defensive players in the NFL. Not only do they excel as individuals, but paired together they can completely destroy opposing offense’s gameplans, both disrupting the designs of running plays and the pockets of quarterbacks.

The Rams have a lot of moving pieces, especially in their back seven on defense, but the pieces they lost should all be replaceable if they can figure out the quarterback position.

Figuring it out shouldn’t involve Keenum as a starter for any length of time.

This is exactly why I don't believe Keenum is anything more then a decent backup. He can't make all the throws. Sure he can hit some wide open receivers, but we don't get that very much. I like the gunslinger mentality but not if he's going to be making mistakes constantly.

 

[BonifayRam]

What is the 2017 college QB crop like? If they really don't draft a QB high, maybe they fill up on WR and TE and shoot for a QB in 2017? This year is probably not going to be so great anyway with the team being a bunch of vagabonds. Maybe Fisher expects a lost season, high draft pick and better shot at one of the 2017 QBs. In the big picture it might be the best possible plan.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2017/QB

 

[OldSchool]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2017/QB

Really think it depends on underclassmen like Watson and Kayaa. Overall from my limited knowledge of the seniors it's a bad class at first glance.

 

[Ram Man]

Cian Fahey's article had some good points in it. Keenum has a lot of imperfections. He has a weak arm and is not the most accurate passer. He lacks physical attributes that other potential options for the Rams have. Not tall (like Osweiler or Foles) or built sturdy to take hits (like Drew Stanton). He's not super athletic (like RGIII). He certainly has a gunslinger mentality. He prefers to hold the ball, avoid the rush and throw it down field while lacking ideal tools (team and personally) to do so. He is not a good fit for Fisher's conservative run-first offense.

Despite all of that I like him has a 1 year bridge player. He's their best option for next year (but likely not beyond). He's smart and mentally and physically tough. He's still developing as a player. I think an offseason where he gets actual coaching attention and practice reps will help him a lot. One of the keys for him next year will be to maintain discipline and play within the Rams conservative offense even when things get tough. I think he can do it. Taking what a defense is giving you is a hard thing to do for relatively inexperienced QB who needs to impress to keep his job. The Rams don't have receivers who will just go and get the damned ball if their QB takes a chance and lets them make a play. If Keenum can play conservative despite his instincts and continue to keep his turnovers and bad sacks limited he can be a "successful" QB for the Rams.

When I say "successful" I mean take the Rams to the playoffs if the rest of the team performs as expected. Even if "successful" Keenum's passing stats won't look great on paper. Most QB's stats get padded with lots of garbage time passing yardage. That won't happen with the Rams. With Fisher the Rams may lead the league next year in the number of rush plays and be last in the league in pass attempts. When the Rams get close to the end zone Gurley will run the ball in. There will be no padding the TD pass totals with easy 2 yard passes to the tight end (see Tom Brady). I foresee being on this forum after the end of the 2016 season after the Rams lose in the playoffs. People will be saying Keenum's a bum. They'll post all kinds of QB stat leader charts and compare them to Keenum's low numbers as definitive proof he's terrible. They'll rant about how the Rams would have won the Super Bowl if they just had a QB who put up league "average" passing numbers.

Keenum has his limitations. He's not the long term future of the franchise. If he plays within his limitations and up to his capabilities, the Rams can be a playoff team next year. There are no better QB options for winning NEXT year.

 

[BonifayRam]

Really think it depends on underclassmen like Watson and Kayaa. Overall from my limited knowledge of the seniors it's a bad class at first glance.

When have we seen the last very good class???
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...ate=-1&award=-1&collegecoach=-1&highschool=-1

Does seem that good college QB's able to play in the NFL are fewer & fewer each season. But if this continues QB salary demands are going up as we have seen....not sure where is it going to stop?

I have not stopped to think this out properly yet & most likely off base here ...on just whats been ongoing with the College QB's talent & skill levels ready to play in the NFL but at first thoughts here it would appear that most are just not prepared for any thing close for the NFL level period in some cases never. The graduating OL's are similar in comparisons to the DL'ers too.

If the NFL thought there is a issue they could look into permitting teams officially be able to have a extra 54th active player if the team decide to carry four QB's on the 54 team roster only if there are 4 QB's on that roster. The practice Squads could also increase its numbers to include two QB's for a total number of 9 if the team carries two QB's etc etc.... QB's are rarely seen on PS's. But most teams seem to care less on the subject & some only carry two QB's on the 53 player roster.

 

[LesBaker]

Don't need your ROD cash but here it is anyway.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFDcoX7s6rE

Freddie was truly one of the greatest rock singers of all time. One of the most entertaining front men ever.

 

[LesBaker]

I think it might be, and I hope it is a misdirection, and I'll be disappointed if we don't make a bold move but I won't become a Jags fan if we don't.

In all seriousness though, if the Rams do decide to stand pat at QB they'd better come out of this draft with some serious weapons offensively. They have three picks in the first 64 to do so. Gurley and Keenum throwing to Britt and Kendricks next season isn't going to get it done.

You forgot about Austin..........

 

[-X-]

He can't make all the throws. Sure he can hit some wide open receivers, but we don't get that very much. I like the gunslinger mentality but not if he's going to be making mistakes constantly.

Wide open receivers?

If I'm able to make you a video of him throwing 20 passes to covered receivers, will you change your mind?
And mistakes? He threw one interception in four games. Over his career so far, his int% is lower than Bradford's.

 

[-X-]

Yeah, Snead's exact words were, "Case is gonna be our starting quarterback, you know, opening day when we start OTAs."

at the 1:40 mark:

View: http://www.therams.com/videos/videos/Snead-Keenum-will-be-starting-QB-to-begin-OTAs/26a759cb-4cee-402c-a1b3-edda04a29ab4

 

[-X-]

With Fisher the Rams may lead the league next year in the number of rush plays and be last in the league in pass attempts.

Probably, but that's okay. Teams have won the SB with that formula. The only difference is that the QB was a big part of the run game, and that was in a zone-read offense. Schotty used to encourage Bradford to take those opportunities when they present themselves, but he wasn't the most nimble runner. Case might have a slight edge in that category, because he does have some wheels. Would love the Rams to incorporate a little of that into their offense. Especially with Gurley in the backfield.

 

[RamFan503]

I foresee being on this forum after the end of the 2016 season after the Rams lose in the playoffs.

Wait. What?