http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...on-draft-we-have-a-good-idea-of-our-top-five/
They say they are taking a QB. Possibly a smokescreen, maybe they really want Clowney? But just the perception could be helpful.
If there are three top QB prospects in Bridgewater, Manziel and Bortles (not sure where Carr falls?)...
1) HOU takes a QB as expected
2) STL looking for a trade partner
3) JAX has announced the intention to take a QB
This puts pressure on teams like CLE, OAK and MIN to get to the 1.2 spot if they want a shot at the second best QB (assuming HOU does take a QB). For some reason, with OAK just climbing out of a hole in which they traded high picks too liberally and were in salary cap hell, I don't see them moving up (maybe they like Carr, and they are a team with many holes that line up with potential BPAs like Robinson, Matthews, Watkins, Mack, Barr, even Clowney could drop if the first three picks are QBs and CLE or possibly us after a trade don't take him?). But CLE supposedly was scouring the collegiate ranks for QB talent, they have had a litany of mediocre QB talent for 15 years (nearly as many QBs in that span), and conveniently have the ammo to move up with the extra first from the Richardson trade. MIN showed a willingness to wheel and deal last year by trading a second, third and fourth for the 1.31 used on Patterson. It just seems like a natural fit envisioning Johnny Football (if he isn't drafted by HOU) scrambling around like Tarkenton (who has already given his imprimatur) and launching the ball downfield to WRs Patterson and Jennings and TE Rudolph, with probable first ballot Hall of Fame RB Peterson taking the pressure off the young QB, and new OC Norv Turner willing to use him. Inability to manufacture a competent QB through the draft or free agency got Frazier fired, and possibly Spielman is on the hot seat?
ATL is possible, but if Clowney looks like he is going to fall, with the top picks ticketed for QB, they may not need to trade up to 1.2. IF we trade with CLE, the possibility could exist for a surgical move from 1.4 to 1.6, depending on if ATL thinks OAK might take Clowney. Hard to say what OAK will do, old tendencies can be tossed out since Davis died. ATL might be fine taking one of the LTs, which would recommend waiting for whoever falls to them. They did blow up their draft for Julio Jones, which at least shows thay are capable of such a move, but maybe they won't want to mortgage their future with a later first for the second time in four years. Their lack of depth and overall roster balance (defensive shortcomings) were exposed in 2013. ATL also of course did the smaller trade from 1.30 to 1.22 last year that netted CB Trufant for them and Ogletree, Bailey and one of the sixths we used to get Stacy, so that worked out well. Snead has ties with the front office, being a product of their system.
Hypothetically, if we were at 1.4 and had a chance to get to 1.6, that might be hard to turn down. But it would also seem to depend on if we were targeting one player, or a group of 2-3. If the former (say we really want Robinson or Watkins?), not sure we would risk OAK sniping us on that player. If the latter, obviously it would be a no brainer.
Back to the 1.2 pick (to sum up or recap), not sure if we could get more than face value per "the value chart", but the above state of affairs would seem to increase the liklihood of getting at least that (which OAK definitely didn't, getting ony a third to move from the 1.3 to MIA's 1.12). In the case of CLE, that would be I think the 1.4 and 1.26, not sure if anything else? CLE is the only other team besides us with an extra pick. If we had three firsts and everybody else has one, with Snead and Fisher's penchant to manipulate the draft to their purposes, moving up and down the board like Art Tatum or Oscar Peterson on the keys, we could control the draft, and acquire multiple seconds and thirds and fill multiple OL and secondary holes. If MIN, the 1.8 and Snead's supposedly preferred 2015 first for starters, not sure what else (at least a 2014 second or third?). In that scenario, the RGIII windfall would continue to be the gift that keeps on giving, leaving us with two first rounders for the third year in a row. We could also do a deal with CLE for their 2015 first, that would allow them to keep the 1.26, but where they give us some kind of 2014 day two pick (they may have an extra third)? CLE and OAK might be attractive for 2015 picks, as they could again be bottom 10 teams next year?
They say they are taking a QB. Possibly a smokescreen, maybe they really want Clowney? But just the perception could be helpful.
If there are three top QB prospects in Bridgewater, Manziel and Bortles (not sure where Carr falls?)...
1) HOU takes a QB as expected
2) STL looking for a trade partner
3) JAX has announced the intention to take a QB
This puts pressure on teams like CLE, OAK and MIN to get to the 1.2 spot if they want a shot at the second best QB (assuming HOU does take a QB). For some reason, with OAK just climbing out of a hole in which they traded high picks too liberally and were in salary cap hell, I don't see them moving up (maybe they like Carr, and they are a team with many holes that line up with potential BPAs like Robinson, Matthews, Watkins, Mack, Barr, even Clowney could drop if the first three picks are QBs and CLE or possibly us after a trade don't take him?). But CLE supposedly was scouring the collegiate ranks for QB talent, they have had a litany of mediocre QB talent for 15 years (nearly as many QBs in that span), and conveniently have the ammo to move up with the extra first from the Richardson trade. MIN showed a willingness to wheel and deal last year by trading a second, third and fourth for the 1.31 used on Patterson. It just seems like a natural fit envisioning Johnny Football (if he isn't drafted by HOU) scrambling around like Tarkenton (who has already given his imprimatur) and launching the ball downfield to WRs Patterson and Jennings and TE Rudolph, with probable first ballot Hall of Fame RB Peterson taking the pressure off the young QB, and new OC Norv Turner willing to use him. Inability to manufacture a competent QB through the draft or free agency got Frazier fired, and possibly Spielman is on the hot seat?
ATL is possible, but if Clowney looks like he is going to fall, with the top picks ticketed for QB, they may not need to trade up to 1.2. IF we trade with CLE, the possibility could exist for a surgical move from 1.4 to 1.6, depending on if ATL thinks OAK might take Clowney. Hard to say what OAK will do, old tendencies can be tossed out since Davis died. ATL might be fine taking one of the LTs, which would recommend waiting for whoever falls to them. They did blow up their draft for Julio Jones, which at least shows thay are capable of such a move, but maybe they won't want to mortgage their future with a later first for the second time in four years. Their lack of depth and overall roster balance (defensive shortcomings) were exposed in 2013. ATL also of course did the smaller trade from 1.30 to 1.22 last year that netted CB Trufant for them and Ogletree, Bailey and one of the sixths we used to get Stacy, so that worked out well. Snead has ties with the front office, being a product of their system.
Hypothetically, if we were at 1.4 and had a chance to get to 1.6, that might be hard to turn down. But it would also seem to depend on if we were targeting one player, or a group of 2-3. If the former (say we really want Robinson or Watkins?), not sure we would risk OAK sniping us on that player. If the latter, obviously it would be a no brainer.
Back to the 1.2 pick (to sum up or recap), not sure if we could get more than face value per "the value chart", but the above state of affairs would seem to increase the liklihood of getting at least that (which OAK definitely didn't, getting ony a third to move from the 1.3 to MIA's 1.12). In the case of CLE, that would be I think the 1.4 and 1.26, not sure if anything else? CLE is the only other team besides us with an extra pick. If we had three firsts and everybody else has one, with Snead and Fisher's penchant to manipulate the draft to their purposes, moving up and down the board like Art Tatum or Oscar Peterson on the keys, we could control the draft, and acquire multiple seconds and thirds and fill multiple OL and secondary holes. If MIN, the 1.8 and Snead's supposedly preferred 2015 first for starters, not sure what else (at least a 2014 second or third?). In that scenario, the RGIII windfall would continue to be the gift that keeps on giving, leaving us with two first rounders for the third year in a row. We could also do a deal with CLE for their 2015 first, that would allow them to keep the 1.26, but where they give us some kind of 2014 day two pick (they may have an extra third)? CLE and OAK might be attractive for 2015 picks, as they could again be bottom 10 teams next year?
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