How to turn an offense around

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Prime Time

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Hey, if the Jaguars can do it, so can the Rams. The Jaguars have the polar opposite problem of the Rams, their defense stinks but their offense is becoming dangerous. Greg Olson is their OC and was the Rams OC during the 2006-2007 seasons.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Olson_(American_football)

He was the offensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams from 2006-2007. In his first year with the Rams in 2006, he helped guide a high-powered offense that ranked sixth in the NFL in total offense (360.4 yards per game) and a passing offense that ranked third (247.6) in the NFC. Under Olson's direction the Rams became just the fourth team in NFL history to produce a 4,000 yard passer (Marc Bulger), a 1,500 yard rusher (Stephen Jackson) and two 1,000 yard receivers (Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce).

Bulger, Holt and Bruce were all selected to the Pro Bowl. Bulger also posted career-highs in passing yards (4,301), passing touchdowns (24), and passing attempts (588) and completions (370) while ranking second in the NFL in interception percentage (1.4%). Jackson also had a career-year in 2006, leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 2,334, and he led all NFL running backs with 90 receptions and was fifth in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,528.

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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/12/11/nfl-jacksonville-jaguars-blake-bortles

The Jaguars Have Been Downright Offensive
With more weapons around him, Blake Bortles has made a giant leap in his second NFL season. You’d be talking about Jacksonville a lot more if its defense hadn’t completely vanished
by Neil Hornsby

jacksonville-jaguars-blake-bortles.png

Pro Football Focus.

Last year the Jaguars’ offense ranked dead last in our grades—and the gap between that unit and the NFL’s second-worst offense (the Raiders) was a yawning chasm.

During his rookie season, Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles looked to be so far out of his depth while throwing to a group of young wideouts that dropped more passes than any other receiving corps in the league. The running game, meanwhile, was powered by Toby Gerhart, a back so one-directional that his path to the point of attack looked to be drawn with a ruler.

Offensive coordinator Jed Fisch was replaced in the offseason by Greg Olsen, who had just been fired as the coordinator of—wait for it—the Raiders! Commentators postured on how much progress could really be made by replacing the coordinator of the 32nd-ranked offense with the coordinator of the 31st-ranked offense. But fast-forward to now and the Jaguars have jumped to No. 9 in our grading.

They’ve made massive strides at quarterback, running back and wide receiver—and their offensive line has made progress as well. Unfortunately, the improvement isn’t reflected in their record (4-8). The defense, which kept the team in a number of games in 2014, hasn’t been as reliable. The Jaguars have lost games this season in which they scored 25, 31 and 39 points. A look at the offensive turnaround:

Quarterback
While he was far from perfect, there was a lot to like about Blake Bortles as he entered the NFL. He had good arm strength and the confidence to fit passes into tight windows, plus the willingness to stand tall under pressure and take a hit. He was a solid choice for the Jaguars to take with the third overall pick. I liked him so much, in fact, that I predicted he would be the league’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. That, of course, didn’t turn out to be one of my better choices.

Bortles turned out to be our lowest-graded quarterback in 2014 by a huge margin. If you took away his excellent running and scrambling grade, his PFF rating was remarkably similar to the rookie campaign of Blaine Gabbert—the QB the Jaguars took first in the 2011 draft.

This year, if you take away his awful performance against the Ravens, he would be among our top 10 QBs. Even including that performance against Baltimore, he’s No. 13. That’s a remarkable turnaround. It’s not predicted on eliminating the really terrible throws—his turnover-worthy passes have actually gone up slightly, from 2.9% to 3.7%—but rather a function of his significantly increasing the number of positively graded throws (up to 20.4% from 12.9%).

A lot of this has to do with the style of offense Greg Olsen is running. Bortles is throwing much deeper passes and using his “new” weapons effectively (more on them in a moment). Bortles’ average depth of target has gone from 7.4 yards (30 of 32 quarterbacks in 2014) to 10.1 (sixth); his rate of 20+ yard passes has risen from 10.5% of throws (26th) to 16.8% of throws (third). He’s cut down his halfback screens from more than twice the NFL average and replaced them with go routes and posts. The go routes in particular have been very effective; his passer rating here is 113.0, well above the NFL average (86.7) for the throw.

The improvement has been exceptional, but the next stage is to reduce the very bad passes. Tom Brady is at 0.9%, and while that is rarified air, it sets the benchmark for what can be achieved.

Wide Receivers
Bortles has done well, but he’s had a lot of help from his receivers. The Jaguars now have two ranked in our top 16 (Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns)—and three in our top 34 (add Bryan Walters). If they can get Marqise Lee healthy and playing to expectations, and if they can get Rashard Greene to become more than just a decent punt returner, this will become a formidable group.

Allen Robinson in particular is giving defenses a lot to think about. We already mentioned Bortles’ 113.0 passer rating on deep balls, but that stat is best explained with a little context. His receivers (and Robinson especially) are helping to make that a gaudy number. While Carson Palmer or Cam Newton might hit his receiver in stride, Bortles is benefiting from his guy’s ability to win contested passes.

Halfback
Everyone loves a first-rounder, and first-round halfbacks in particular get almost as much hype as first-round quarterbacks. What I don’t understand, however, is how the Rams’ Todd Gurley continues to gets so much air time while the Jaguars’ T.J. Yeldon—a second-rounder who I think has been a slightly better all-round back—seems to be a mere afterthought at times.

Yeldon has only 19 fewer yards from scrimmage than Gurley. He’s broken or avoided 40 tackles (Gurley has 30) and has never fumbled (Gurley has twice).

We’re not saying Gurley isn’t a very good player; he certainly is. But Yeldon isn’t getting the praise that he deserves.

Of course, he’s not perfect either. Yeldon’s pass protection needs a lot of work, as his two sacks, two hits and nine hurries allowed will attest, but he’s a major upgrade at the position and has the ability to do a lot more.

Overall, the Jaguars and Greg Olsen have an offense that is becoming very dangerous and difficult to contain. I haven’t even mentioned tight end Julius Thomas, who is coming on after a slow, injury-plagued start—or the fact that Jacksonville’s best lineman, guard Brandon Linder, has been out since Week 3. A similar move forward from the defense (or even a return to last year’s form) and this team won’t be an afterthought for much longer.

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/12/10/allen-robinson-jacksonville-jaguars-nfl-week-14-preview

Who is Allen Robinson?
The second-year wideout is the first Jag to have a 1,000-yard season in 10 years, one of the NFL’s hottest young stars and a sign of the offensive success to come in Jacksonville.
by Robert Mays

Over the past two offseasons, the Jaguars have been transparent in their push for respectability on offense. After taking Blake Bortles third overall in 2014, Jacksonville has spent resources of all kinds in trying to build a functional support system befitting a promising young quarterback.

A round after taking Bortles, general manager David Caldwell took not one but two receivers—Marquis Lee and Allen Robinson, for whom he had to surrender a fifth-round pick. Allen Hurns was an unearthed diamond dug up as an undrafted free agent. Julius Thomas got $24 million guaranteed to replicate his Broncos role as a touchdown machine, and for his part, right tackle Jeremy Parnell got $14.5 million to help keep Bortles upright.

Finally, new offensive coordinator Greg Olson—fresh off a coaching staff purge in Oakland—was brought in to helm the revamped offense and try to ensure that Bortles and his young receivers made strides in year two.

The hit rate on those moves is far from 100 percent—Hurns has supplanted Lee, and Thomas has been slow to emerge after missing the start of the season—but the objective still has been realized. As Bortles nears the end of his second season, there is hope surrounding the Jags offense for the first time in years. Steady improvement from the quarterback has played a part, but what’s accelerated Jacksonville’s development as much as or more than Bortles’ strides is the emergence of a true star on the outside.

Allen Robinson was rarely named in conversations about the rookie receiver revolution last season, but to this point in his second year, the only member of the 2014 class doing more for his team is Odell Beckham Jr. Through 12 games, Robinson stands at 65 catches for 1,080 yards and 11 touchdowns, and as the Jags prepare to face Vontae Davis and a Colts defense still bandaging up after being decimated by Pittsburgh.

Robinson also did plenty of damage in his own right last week. In a 42-39 fireworks display no one expected, he caught 10 balls for 153 yards and three scores. Sadly, the box score doesn’t have a row for drop-your-jaw-and-drool catches, but he had some of those too. The monster day made Robinson the first Jaguars receiver in 10 years—since franchise great Jimmy Smith—to surpass 1,000 yards in a season.

When Jaguars receivers coach Jerry Sullivan went to watch Robinson’s workout at Penn State, he remembers standing off to the side as scouts scribbled down Robinson’s results in the vertical leap. At 42 inches, it was clear Robinson was explosive, but what’s fueled his jump from year one to year two is that it’s far from all he is.

“He’s not a mechanical guy or a straight-line guy,” Sullivan says. “He can maneuver. He can play inside and outside. He’s improved his route running tenfold.”

mmqb-robinson-allen.jpg

Photo: Rick Wilson/AP
Allen Robinson is fifth in the league in receiving yards and second in touchdowns.

On an 87-catch pace, Robinson has proved he’s capable of making all sorts of different plays, a talent Sullivan claims is a product of a growing feel for how corners are approaching him at the snap of the ball. But the most significant change in production comes in how Olson is using him as a threat down the field.

Last year Robinson’s targets traveled 11.23 yards, the 35th-highest figure in the league. This year, it’s jumped all the way to 15.11 yards per target. Only six receivers are being targeted deeper down the field on average, and when it comes to raw numbers, Robinson has seen 59 targets that flew at least 15 yards—that’s six more than anyone else in football.

Being 6-3 and 220 pounds certainly helps when it comes to out-muscling measly corners for jump balls, but Sullivan says that both Robinson’s location and his ball skills are on a level that simply can’t be taught. He alludes to Robinson’s time as a highly recruited basketball star at St. Mary’s Prep in Detroit for sparking that knack for timing balls in the air, and even Robinson says that much like rebounding, the real work on jump balls happens before he even leaves the ground.

“I just try to put my body in a good position to make a play on the ball,” he says. “That’s where it starts. I trust my instincts on that.”

The progression following a rookie season is paramount for anyone, and for Robinson, it was nearly derailed. After breaking his foot 10 games into last season, he spent most of the offseason rehabbing. It was work he stayed in Jacksonville to complete, and by sticking around, Robinson was able to spend even more time with fellow rookie standout Allen Hurns.

Jacksonville’s receivers room is something of an NFL nursery. Journeyman Bryan Walters is easily Sullivan’s oldest receiver, at the ripe age of 28. No one else is more than a month removed from his 24th birthday, and it’s helped create a distinctive environment for both Sullivan and his players. “It’s a good thing,” Sullivan says.

“They’re all for each other. Nobody’s ego gets in the way, and they’ve all been productive in their own ways.” Sullivan has coached for 43 years, and he says that he has particularly enjoyed watching this crop make its incremental moves toward truly grasping football at this level. “It’s a good group,” Sullivan says. “We don’t have anybody that’s a pain in the ass.”

He says that Robinson and Hurns are like “brothers,” and as much as the familial feel between the Jags pass catchers has built a bond, Robinson sees practical value in Jacksonville’s youth movement.

“With us playing so many rookies last year, we all got the experience of, “Oh yeah, we can play at this level,” Robinson says. “Playing so much football down the stretch, we just gained the confidence in ourselves and each other. Coming into this season, we had already played those snaps.”

Having a body of work at age 21 meant already having tape on which to reflect as this year’s Jags dug into areas that called for improvement. Robinson’s 48 catches last year may not have put him in the echelon of Beckham and Kelvin Benjamin, but Sullivan says they were invaluable in pushing Robinson to the place he is now. That place is status among the most exciting young players in the entire league, and it’s a place the Jags have missed visiting for a long, long time.
 

LACHAMP46

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Hey, if the Jaguars can do it, so can the Rams..........................
Quarterback
While he was far from perfect, there was a lot to like about Blake Bortles as he entered the NFL. He had good arm strength and the confidence to fit passes into tight windows, plus the willingness to stand tall under pressure and take a hit. He was a solid choice for the Jaguars to take with the third overall pick.
I loved Bortles coming out.....and he PLAYED his first year behind a rebuilt O-Line.....gotta play the kids man...see what they have....Robinson is a prime example....and I always thought Lee was a future stud....Can we find a Bortles? Is that Goff? Is that Cook? Is that Lynch? Is that Hogan/Hackenberg? Lets go find him PT!!!!
 

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Everyone knew Bortles would take time, and gotta say that I really liked Robinson coming out of Penn St too, figured him for a very good NFL possession receiver but he looks like he's more than that now. Jags now have a really nice passing game foundation that should serve them well for years.

Olson deserves a lot of credit too. I don't know what happened with the Raiders (one year look is kinda tough on these guys) but the guy is a solid OC. Good to see him bounce back with the Jags.
 

Prime Time

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Can we find a Bortles? Is that Goff? Is that Cook? Is that Lynch? Is that Hogan/Hackenberg? Lets go find him PT!!!!

Maybe we already have him in Mannion. Won't know for sure until he gets a chance to play behind an O-line that isn't ravaged by injuries.
 

HitStick

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Maybe we already have him in Mannion. Won't know for sure until he gets a chance to play behind an O-line that isn't ravaged by injuries.

If Mannion would have come out a year earlier I imagine he would have gotten drafted higher. With weapons, I think he can be a damn good QB. At least to the level of Bulger before he was murdered. Thats why I'd be fine with skipping the QB this year and grabbing some better weapons and upgrade the offensive line. Treadwell for me. If someone good falls (Boyd for DUI, Doctson for injury, Thomas as a gift from God) take them too. It's time we get serious about the offense and start putting our players in a position to succeed.
 

RAGRam

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I was in love with Robinson coming out, if I've learnt one thing from "draft scouting" it's trust your gut, ignore the boards, how A-Rob was a 2nd rounder, even in that draft, I'll never understand.
 

LACHAMP46

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Maybe we already have him in Mannion. Won't know for sure until he gets a chance to play behind an O-line that isn't ravaged by injuries.
Maybe....no such thing as a perfect game with a clean pocket all day. Not that I'm convinced, but if he's so far from being "NFL ready", I have doubts that he can actually shine. I refuse to believe the game is so hard....QB's will struggle...Some of the plays Foles & now Keenum make...I just read how Keenum "thinks" he should have taken a shot downfield on an off-sides play where he was injured.... I mean, this has to be his 5th year...He should know already, D-Line goes offsides, take a shot...The fact that he still doesn't do this...automatically...proves to me he doesn't have a clue. And if Mannion can just do this one basic thing he should be able to play...now. If he can't...we have the wrong guy.
 

Yamahopper

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And to think the Rams owned the rights to Bortles for 10 minutes. Go Foles / Keenum.
 

Athos

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Their offensive pieces are young and cost controlled as well, so they have time to fix that defense.

The Rams meanwhile......
 

JUMAVA68

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We have talent on the offensive side of the ball but getting that Qb that can bring it all together has been frustrating.Hopefully that can finally be solved in the draft,Qb,Wr or Ol should be 2 of our 1st 3 picks.
 

Picked4td

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it helps that the jags got lucky too. Getting the top qb in the draft at #3 and then a 1st round WR in the 2nd. Not to mention Hurns as an udfa. Sometimes luck beats skill
 

jrry32

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How can we turn the offense around?
Hue Jackson + 1st round QB + more talent at WR + one more quality OL to replace Saffold

Won't take that much. I'd also like a good pass catching TE. But that's a luxury. We could move forward with Kendricks. He's solid enough.

Like the Jaguars, we need a QB. And it'll help if we bring in a bright offensive mind.
 

jrry32

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If Mannion would have come out a year earlier I imagine he would have gotten drafted higher. With weapons, I think he can be a damn good QB. At least to the level of Bulger before he was murdered. Thats why I'd be fine with skipping the QB this year and grabbing some better weapons and upgrade the offensive line. Treadwell for me. If someone good falls (Boyd for DUI, Doctson for injury, Thomas as a gift from God) take them too. It's time we get serious about the offense and start putting our players in a position to succeed.

Maybe a few spots higher but he still would have been a 3rd round pick. He wasn't going ahead of Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr, Garoppolo, and Manziel.

What has he shown to convince anyone he can be a damn good QB? You don't pass on talented QBs because you think your 3rd round guy might be good when he's shown nothing on the field and hasn't been able to earn the starting job over suck and suckier.

To the level of Bulger? Bulger was a Pro Bowl QB and an arguable top 10 QB in the NFL during his prime. That's a pretty damn high bar to set.

You're right. We do need to get serious. Passing on talented QBs for Mannion isn't getting serious. If Mannion is as good as you say, he'll earn the job. And frankly, it would be doing us a favor if he did. The longer you can develop a first round QB before playing him, the better.
 

FRO

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You see how these teams put excellent talent around their QB, and their QB succeeded. We draft Sam and put bums around him. We will have the opportunity for a redo, and if we get a QB we better improve the weapons around him.

It's also aggravating that the league is full of young dynamic receivers, and somehow we didn't draft a single one of them. We've needed a WR every year for the last 10 years. No exaggeration there. We can't even get a WR to break the 800 yard club.
 

jrry32

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You see how these teams put excellent talent around their QB, and their QB succeeded. We draft Sam and put bums around him. We will have the opportunity for a redo, and if we get a QB we better improve the weapons around him.

It's also aggravating that the league is full of young dynamic receivers, and somehow we didn't draft a single one of them. We've needed a WR every year for the last 10 years. No exaggeration there. We can't even get a WR to break the 800 yard club.

There's definitely an exaggeration there. We had Holt, Bruce, and Curtis (as well as McDonald as a #4) 10 years ago. We've needed WRs since 2008 or 2009, though.

Part of it has been the offense as a whole. But part of it has been not making the right picks at WR. Danario Alexander is the only guy we've had over that span that had legit #1/#2 WR ability. But he couldn't stay healthy. Lloyd, Clayton, and Amendola all showed #2 WR ability.(although Amendola was best as a slot WR)

Beyond that, we haven't had much except for some flashes from Tavon, Quick, and Britt.

But it's also hard to tell sometimes because the OL, QB, and play-calling haven't been top notch either.
 

dieterbrock

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How can we turn the offense around?
Hue Jackson + 1st round QB + more talent at WR + one more quality OL to replace Saffold

Won't take that much. I'd also like a good pass catching TE. But that's a luxury. We could move forward with Kendricks. He's solid enough.

Like the Jaguars, we need a QB. And it'll help if we bring in a bright offensive mind.
And when you see the WR on Jacksonville that are doing well, we might have the same talent on the Rams. Just need that QB AND Hue Jackson to find out...
 

-X-

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To the level of Bulger? Bulger was a Pro Bowl QB and an arguable top 10 QB in the NFL during his prime. That's a pretty damn high bar to set.
During his prime? I think you mean during his cushy job as QB of a team loaded with talent. That job became significantly less desirable from 2005-2009 and he no longer looked like an arguable top 10 QB. Top 10 QBs don't typically take a career nose-dive at age 30. There's more to the formula than just trying to get a QB 'as good as' Marc Bulger.
 

FRO

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There's definitely an exaggeration there. We had Holt, Bruce, and Curtis (as well as McDonald as a #4) 10 years ago. We've needed WRs since 2008 or 2009, though.

Part of it has been the offense as a whole. But part of it has been not making the right picks at WR. Danario Alexander is the only guy we've had over that span that had legit #1/#2 WR ability. But he couldn't stay healthy. Lloyd, Clayton, and Amendola all showed #2 WR ability.(although Amendola was best as a slot WR)

Beyond that, we haven't had much except for some flashes from Tavon, Quick, and Britt.

But it's also hard to tell sometimes because the OL, QB, and play-calling haven't been top notch either.
Well 8 years then. I suck at math it appears.

Yeah Danario was the only legit number one we have had since Holt, but he only had one healthy knee. We absolutely have to get 2 starting caliber WRs. Tavon is a nice playmaker, but I don't know if the offense benefits from him being out there a ton of plays since he isn't a good WR. He is sort of a conundrum.

Drafting a QB is step one, but if we do not get some better play around the QB, it won't matter.
 

FRO

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During his prime? I think you mean during his cushy job as QB of a team loaded with talent. That job became significantly less desirable from 2005-2009 and he no longer looked like an arguable top 10 QB. Top 10 QBs don't typically take a career nose-dive at age 30. There's more to the formula than just trying to get a QB 'as good as' Marc Bulger.
Burger was solid. I would gladly take a Bulger level QB. 2006 Bulger had a heck of a year. I also do not think many QBs would have done well in 2007-2009. We just sucked so bad on offense talent wise then.
 

RAGRam

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You see how these teams put excellent talent around their QB, and their QB succeeded. We draft Sam and put bums around him. We will have the opportunity for a redo, and if we get a QB we better improve the weapons around him.

It's also aggravating that the league is full of young dynamic receivers, and somehow we didn't draft a single one of them. We've needed a WR every year for the last 10 years. No exaggeration there. We can't even get a WR to break the 800 yard club.

Wasn't it Fisher who said "if you think we need a receiver you know nothing about this team"?