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http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mik...3/has-wilson-claimed-young-qb-crown-from-luck
Getty ImagesRussell Wilson has continued to soar while Andrew Luck has scuffled lately.
Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson alternated turns in the NFL's young quarterback spotlight last season. Griffin set the rookie record for passer rating. Kaepernick set playoff records on his way to the Super Bowl. Luck transformed a 2-14 team into an 11-5 contender. Wilson tied the rookie record for touchdown passes.
Their paths have diverged some lately. Griffin, Kaepernick and Luck have combined for a 2-7 record, 78.9 passer rating and 33.8 Total QBR score over the past three weeks. The figures are quite different for Wilson in his past three games. His Seattle Seahawks are 3-0. His passer rating (123.2) and QBR score (88.6) have surged in those games.
"I think it is unfair to these guys almost to keep their stock report based on wins and losses or what they did last week," a general manager contended recently.
The GM is right. Careers aren't defined over short stretches. But we're not talking about just three games here or there. With Wilson trailing only Peyton Manning in passer rating and QBR since Week 8 of last season, it was worth asking whether the Seahawks' second-year starter might be pulling away from the others in general -- and specifically from Luck, who was regarded as the top passing prospect in a generation. The numbers are striking, but they do not tell the full story.
Luck vs. Wilson: Last 22 Starts
QBWilsonLuck
W-L18-415-7
Comp.363459
Att.555817
Pct.65.456.2
Yards4,8225,581
YPA8.76.8
TD-INT40-1031-19
Passer rating109.380.3
Sacked5552
Rushes14689
Rush yards906437
Rush TD66
Rush FD5429
Total QBR75.059.8
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Wilson assumed an upward trajectory beginning with his final 11 games last season, counting the playoffs. Now 11 games into his second season, Wilson has put together a 22-game body of work featuring 40 touchdown passes, six rushing touchdowns, 10 interceptions and an 18-4 starting record. Luck hasn't been bad in comparison by any stretch, but in comparing corresponding stat lines in the chart at right, Wilson would seem to come out ahead by just about every measure.
No two quarterbacks operate under identical circumstances, of course. Advanced metrics can be helpful, but Total QBR in its current form assumes an average supporting cast. It doesn't know when Wilson is playing without three starting offensive linemen. It doesn't know the Colts were a 2-14 team without Luck, or that they traded a first-round draft choice for an underperforming running back in Trent Richardson. These sorts of things tend to even out over time. In the short term, the numbers can provide welcome perspective to supplement thoughts from people in the business of player evaluation.
"I think Luck is ahead of the others," the GM said. "Russell will never be able to close the gap on that one. Part of it is, just genetically, he cannot see over the line sometimes. But all these guys have strengths and weaknesses. Kaepernick is still about the same guy from last year, but last year he made big plays running. It naturally becomes an emotional assessment of these guys. All these guys are young. I always laugh when a guy is a year and a half in and we're like, 'Is it time?' Really? You're going to make a change? Everyone will go through a slump."
A higher bar to clear
The next table shows strong correlation between Total QBR scores and team winning percentages. It will ultimately provide context for Luck and Wilson in particular. Scores range from zero to 100, with 50 representing average play. Peyton Manning leads regular starters this season with a 79.4 score. Andy Dalton is at 50.1. Brandon Weeden is at 23.9. Wilson (64.2) and Luck (62.8) are in the same range this season, with Luck deriving disproportionate value from timely rushes.
2006-Present Records by Total QBR Score
QBR Score RangeWLPct.
90 and up36124.938
80-8934075.819
70-79314122.720
60-69230153.601
50-59220172.561
40-49180204.469
30-39136257.346
20-2992311.228
10-1957312.154
Less than 1035335.095
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
We usually use the scores to measure a quarterback's contributions to winning, but the numbers also can reveal what a QB is up against depending upon the strength of his team's defense. Luck has a much higher bar to clear.
The Colts' opponents have posted a 58.1 QBR score since Luck arrived. The figure has been 45.8 for the Seahawks' opponents with Wilson. All else equal, Wilson could expect to win about 54 percent of the time, compared to 42 percent for Luck. But all else has not been equal. Seattle has had a much stronger defense. Nine of the 29 starting quarterbacks to face Seattle during the Wilson era finished those games with QBR scores south of 20. Seven more failed to reach 40. The Colts defense has held only six of 28 opposing starters beneath 40. That is a big, big difference. One for which Luck has directly had to compensate.
The Colts have needed more from their quarterback to win games consistently. Pass attempts are one part of the equation. Luck has attempted 42.8 per game, compared to 30.8 for Wilson. The gap in their teams' QB dependence shines through in the QBR numbers as well. Indy has a 15-1 record (.938) when Luck posts a QBR score above 60 and a 3-9 record (.250) the rest of the time. That's about as QB-reliant as a team could be. The Seahawks' winning percentage is actually higher when Wilson's QBR is below 60 (10-3, .769) than when it is above that mark (12-4, .750). Seattle's relative strength in other areas is a great equalizer.
The disparity comes as no shock. Luck joined a team that had posted a 2-14 record the year before. Seattle had twice gone 7-9 before Wilson became the Seahawks' starter.
"I'm sure Luck would kill for a Marshawn Lynch-like running game right now and that is what they tried to get with Richardson," ESPN.com NFL scout Matt Williamson said. "But Wilson has been under pressure a ton. I'm not sure I can come up with two QBs who have been under more pressure than these guys. Seattle has a much better team and that is huge. But it's not like Wilson hasn't had to make plays. He is like Fran Tarkenton. He doesn’t run to make yardage, he runs to buy time."
2013 Passes 20+ Yards Downfield
QBWilsonLuck
Comp.2313
Att.4242
Pct.54.831.0
Yards739476
YPA17.611.3
TD-INT6-24-1
Passer rating119.596.9
SackedN/AN/A
Total QBR99.973.3
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Wilson has settled into his second season in the same system with the same coaches. The Colts changed offensive coordinators and offensive schemes. Luck knew the system well because he ran a similar version at Stanford, but points of emphasis have changed. Last season, Luck completed a league-high 35 passes on throws traveling at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. He has completed only 13 such passes this season. Wilson has completed 23, one off the league lead, and his 54.8 completion rate on such throws ranks first among qualifying quarterbacks.
While the Seahawks are getting stronger with linemen Russell Okung, Breno Giacomini and receiver Percy Harvin joining the lineup, the Colts recently lost receiver Reggie Wayne. They previously lost tight end Dwayne Allen and running back Ahmad Bradshaw. All are done for the season.
"On Luck, I think losing Reggie Wayne hurts him," the GM said. "You should naturally think that takes them a couple minutes to re-sort this thing and figure out their strengths and weaknesses. You have to live through it on the field with what the other teams will do to you. That is a tough loss. That is the loss in Luck's case that moves the chains."
Closing thoughts
Luck was a near-unanimous top choice when we asked experienced personnel evaluators to identify the five current NFL players they would like to build around. No other Colts players drew consideration, but there were a couple of Seahawks in the conversation, including cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas. That also spoke to overall roster strength.
The recent blowout defeats Indy suffered against St. Louis and Arizona haven't changed analysts' opinions of Luck to even the slightest degree. They still see Luck as a nearly perfect prospect, a once-in-a-generation talent making the best of an imperfect situation. They love what they see from Wilson as well, but given a choice between two smart players with all the intangibles and dynamic running ability, they'll take the 6-foot-4 version over the 5-foot-11 one, even though the gap is much smaller than anyone could have reasonably expected it to be.
Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson alternated turns in the NFL's young quarterback spotlight last season. Griffin set the rookie record for passer rating. Kaepernick set playoff records on his way to the Super Bowl. Luck transformed a 2-14 team into an 11-5 contender. Wilson tied the rookie record for touchdown passes.
Their paths have diverged some lately. Griffin, Kaepernick and Luck have combined for a 2-7 record, 78.9 passer rating and 33.8 Total QBR score over the past three weeks. The figures are quite different for Wilson in his past three games. His Seattle Seahawks are 3-0. His passer rating (123.2) and QBR score (88.6) have surged in those games.
"I think it is unfair to these guys almost to keep their stock report based on wins and losses or what they did last week," a general manager contended recently.
The GM is right. Careers aren't defined over short stretches. But we're not talking about just three games here or there. With Wilson trailing only Peyton Manning in passer rating and QBR since Week 8 of last season, it was worth asking whether the Seahawks' second-year starter might be pulling away from the others in general -- and specifically from Luck, who was regarded as the top passing prospect in a generation. The numbers are striking, but they do not tell the full story.
Luck vs. Wilson: Last 22 Starts
QBWilsonLuck
W-L18-415-7
Comp.363459
Att.555817
Pct.65.456.2
Yards4,8225,581
YPA8.76.8
TD-INT40-1031-19
Passer rating109.380.3
Sacked5552
Rushes14689
Rush yards906437
Rush TD66
Rush FD5429
Total QBR75.059.8
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Wilson assumed an upward trajectory beginning with his final 11 games last season, counting the playoffs. Now 11 games into his second season, Wilson has put together a 22-game body of work featuring 40 touchdown passes, six rushing touchdowns, 10 interceptions and an 18-4 starting record. Luck hasn't been bad in comparison by any stretch, but in comparing corresponding stat lines in the chart at right, Wilson would seem to come out ahead by just about every measure.
No two quarterbacks operate under identical circumstances, of course. Advanced metrics can be helpful, but Total QBR in its current form assumes an average supporting cast. It doesn't know when Wilson is playing without three starting offensive linemen. It doesn't know the Colts were a 2-14 team without Luck, or that they traded a first-round draft choice for an underperforming running back in Trent Richardson. These sorts of things tend to even out over time. In the short term, the numbers can provide welcome perspective to supplement thoughts from people in the business of player evaluation.
"I think Luck is ahead of the others," the GM said. "Russell will never be able to close the gap on that one. Part of it is, just genetically, he cannot see over the line sometimes. But all these guys have strengths and weaknesses. Kaepernick is still about the same guy from last year, but last year he made big plays running. It naturally becomes an emotional assessment of these guys. All these guys are young. I always laugh when a guy is a year and a half in and we're like, 'Is it time?' Really? You're going to make a change? Everyone will go through a slump."
A higher bar to clear
The next table shows strong correlation between Total QBR scores and team winning percentages. It will ultimately provide context for Luck and Wilson in particular. Scores range from zero to 100, with 50 representing average play. Peyton Manning leads regular starters this season with a 79.4 score. Andy Dalton is at 50.1. Brandon Weeden is at 23.9. Wilson (64.2) and Luck (62.8) are in the same range this season, with Luck deriving disproportionate value from timely rushes.
2006-Present Records by Total QBR Score
QBR Score RangeWLPct.
90 and up36124.938
80-8934075.819
70-79314122.720
60-69230153.601
50-59220172.561
40-49180204.469
30-39136257.346
20-2992311.228
10-1957312.154
Less than 1035335.095
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
We usually use the scores to measure a quarterback's contributions to winning, but the numbers also can reveal what a QB is up against depending upon the strength of his team's defense. Luck has a much higher bar to clear.
The Colts' opponents have posted a 58.1 QBR score since Luck arrived. The figure has been 45.8 for the Seahawks' opponents with Wilson. All else equal, Wilson could expect to win about 54 percent of the time, compared to 42 percent for Luck. But all else has not been equal. Seattle has had a much stronger defense. Nine of the 29 starting quarterbacks to face Seattle during the Wilson era finished those games with QBR scores south of 20. Seven more failed to reach 40. The Colts defense has held only six of 28 opposing starters beneath 40. That is a big, big difference. One for which Luck has directly had to compensate.
The Colts have needed more from their quarterback to win games consistently. Pass attempts are one part of the equation. Luck has attempted 42.8 per game, compared to 30.8 for Wilson. The gap in their teams' QB dependence shines through in the QBR numbers as well. Indy has a 15-1 record (.938) when Luck posts a QBR score above 60 and a 3-9 record (.250) the rest of the time. That's about as QB-reliant as a team could be. The Seahawks' winning percentage is actually higher when Wilson's QBR is below 60 (10-3, .769) than when it is above that mark (12-4, .750). Seattle's relative strength in other areas is a great equalizer.
The disparity comes as no shock. Luck joined a team that had posted a 2-14 record the year before. Seattle had twice gone 7-9 before Wilson became the Seahawks' starter.
"I'm sure Luck would kill for a Marshawn Lynch-like running game right now and that is what they tried to get with Richardson," ESPN.com NFL scout Matt Williamson said. "But Wilson has been under pressure a ton. I'm not sure I can come up with two QBs who have been under more pressure than these guys. Seattle has a much better team and that is huge. But it's not like Wilson hasn't had to make plays. He is like Fran Tarkenton. He doesn’t run to make yardage, he runs to buy time."
2013 Passes 20+ Yards Downfield
QBWilsonLuck
Comp.2313
Att.4242
Pct.54.831.0
Yards739476
YPA17.611.3
TD-INT6-24-1
Passer rating119.596.9
SackedN/AN/A
Total QBR99.973.3
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Wilson has settled into his second season in the same system with the same coaches. The Colts changed offensive coordinators and offensive schemes. Luck knew the system well because he ran a similar version at Stanford, but points of emphasis have changed. Last season, Luck completed a league-high 35 passes on throws traveling at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. He has completed only 13 such passes this season. Wilson has completed 23, one off the league lead, and his 54.8 completion rate on such throws ranks first among qualifying quarterbacks.
While the Seahawks are getting stronger with linemen Russell Okung, Breno Giacomini and receiver Percy Harvin joining the lineup, the Colts recently lost receiver Reggie Wayne. They previously lost tight end Dwayne Allen and running back Ahmad Bradshaw. All are done for the season.
"On Luck, I think losing Reggie Wayne hurts him," the GM said. "You should naturally think that takes them a couple minutes to re-sort this thing and figure out their strengths and weaknesses. You have to live through it on the field with what the other teams will do to you. That is a tough loss. That is the loss in Luck's case that moves the chains."
Closing thoughts
Luck was a near-unanimous top choice when we asked experienced personnel evaluators to identify the five current NFL players they would like to build around. No other Colts players drew consideration, but there were a couple of Seahawks in the conversation, including cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas. That also spoke to overall roster strength.
The recent blowout defeats Indy suffered against St. Louis and Arizona haven't changed analysts' opinions of Luck to even the slightest degree. They still see Luck as a nearly perfect prospect, a once-in-a-generation talent making the best of an imperfect situation. They love what they see from Wilson as well, but given a choice between two smart players with all the intangibles and dynamic running ability, they'll take the 6-foot-4 version over the 5-foot-11 one, even though the gap is much smaller than anyone could have reasonably expected it to be.
