Goff analysis (please add or subtract as you deem)
Where he is better Goff: 2017 vs 2018 (small changes lead to big results)
Goff last year wasn’t throwing into tight windows I think because he was on a short leash because he didn’t know the system. Compared to Warner who was ripping it, and Martz didn’t care, because he knew the yards and TDs would also come because of this mentality. In my opinion, as a thrower, only Rogers tops him. I think he is much more accurate than Warner (throw after throw). Montana was accurate, but not consistent with distance and timing at 50+ yards like Goff is. Goff is soooo accurate that to not allow him to throw into tight windows is a HUGE reduction of his talent. Bulger was a mostly very accurate QB, but Martz was afraid in the 2003 playoff game to allow him that leeway. And, it cost the Rams the game. Bulger was in year 4 of the system….I mean, come on, right? This freedom has resulted in a 10 ypa average!! I also think that Goff is more accurate at 40+ yards down the field this year….but the same accuracy everywhere else.
The long ball accuracy: keeping the ball in the proper “east-west” location is as important as the right distance. Chris Miller was one of the best deep ball throwers ever. Goff, to me, is beginning to be like Miller. The Ball seems to be in the right ‘east-west’ location, not just distance (north-south). One of the worst right now is Matt Ryan (for comparison).
Related to tight windows:
Part of the reason he threw no endzone interceptions last year was because he wasn’t looking to be a super star. This year he is much more aggressive…and with this comes some interceptions. That int in the redzone against Seattle wasn’t “his fault” (it was, hold on); but, really he should know that there is a 10-25% of the ball being tipped in ithgt coverage at the goal line with 5 guys surround that receiver….yep, actually, it was his fault. The goal line defender is allowed to swarm the receiver---the refs allow it, and Goff should know this already.
When people improvise (in speaking, or throwing the ball, or hitting out of the rough in golf) the performance usually drops because the mind has to adjust to the ‘new’ environment. Some people thrive in improvisation, while most in fact fall or fail. Because Goff didn’t have the core strength to throw balls accurately, or with velocity when his feet weren’t right, he had many flutters last year--- he wasn’t prepared in a split second, and his body couldn’t respond because it wasn’t strengthened enough.. This year he looks much more able to improvise---meaning his mind is ready, he can adjust his arm angle and probably his core strength is better because his throwing velocity is more consistent.
The ball looks like it is coming out ‘cleaner’, all the time, as compared to last year. He also has been throwing from more unique arm-angles this year---while, also having the ball on target. His throwing strength is soooo much better this year overall. And lastly, Goff has improved in pocket awareness and moving around, and running if needed.
Goff Strengths:
*Elite throwing accuracy at all levels (albeit, without elite velocity, but good enough velocity).
Some of his throws over LBs and to TE (Higs) vs Dallas and a few others are throws that no other QB makes. I am not sure Brady or Brees would think they could make those throws (based on the D-lineman coming at them, and angles etc.). Most QBs throw the ball too hard these days: they can’t take any velocity off, AND still release the ball in time. so most of them just throw the ball away. Goff's anticipation helps him because he throws a bit softer, so he has to throw a millisecond faster---and his softer throws make for an easier completion at 1-8 yards of the LOS.
*He anticipates at probably near elite levels, too.
Even what looks like a bad throw, usually is a very good throw:
His back-shoulder to Kupp at the 2 yard line looks like a throwaway, but it is in the only place Kupp could catch it, and retain the ball so he wouldn’t fumble (as the defender was coming over). It hit Kupp’s hands. That ball travled 35 yards or so I think.
*Goff has timing and release at very good levels: He has room to grow here. He, one day, will be using his wrist even more when he needs to. He still has to build strength to do this.
*Intelligence: he is waaaay up there…and it is ‘functional’ intelligence, unlike Bradford who can’t seem to use that intelligence to produce anything. He knows when to dump off—and the ball is perfectly located, even though a hit is coming.
*Leadership: like Montana people will rally around him. Notice the entire Cal squad got I a room to see him drafted. What other college teams do that for their QBs??? Name them, please. This type of leadership builds a team. He respects people, and so people respect him---then they see him throw, and they are in awe, lol. His humbleness also could be at such a high level because he can’t be a jerk and have speech diction like he has---can’t say it any other way, sorry.
*Temperment: No ego, no yelling, no adrenaline rushes that say ‘look at me’, small pride, or so it seems. Who can’t like that? In football, liking who you play with is much more important than baseball and basketball (and prob hockey). By nature this causes team-building—even the biggest jerks have to like Goff, lol!
This provides an atmosphere of ‘learning’. Why? Because less intelligent players will build something with him because they aren’t afraid of him intellectually, even though he graduated at 3 yeas with a 3.6 GPA---unlike Brady and Manning who can’t stand people who aren’t perfect (lol) like them. By the way, Manning ain’t smart.
*Goff doesn’t throw the ball in the position where the defender can make a play—almost ever. Actually, this might be at the highest level in the NFL. (ya, he does have 1-2 really questionable throws a game, I know). This ability to not compromise the catch point, or the WRs health, is a spatial intelligence because he has to know that in the 1.5 seconds the ball gets to the WR, that the defender can’t make a play on it at knee or ankle level, and then he throws it exactly there! Few, few, few can do this. Marino did, I think. Elway never did this….he just ripped it. Though he was a great ripper!
*Adrenaline maintenance: Terry Bradshaw was saying that most QBs get so pumped up, and then the D-lineman add to that adrenaline level, and then the QB they can’t maintain calmness, thinking, processing---then they throw the interception. Montana was probably the all-timer in this; Phil Simms had a problem with this aspect of his game. Goff might be the best in the NFL at adrenaline reducement.
*He throws the most catchable ball in the NFL outside of Case K, lol (nose doesn’t dive with so much velocity)….this, IDK, might be more about the firmness/softness with which he throws—or the nose up. Bradford has the most uncatchable ball in NFL history in my opinion. Goff is an artist, he ain’t no TJ Rubley. ON short routes he throws the ball to the waist where the LB or safety can never hit it out when they are running over----a ball at the waist is harder for the defender to knock out, or knock away. In these days, I see most all QBs doing this, but Goff is 100% doing this on every throw out of the backfield or on crossing patterns, when it is necessary. It is never random where the ball is arriving, unlike Dak Prescott, or Wentz for example.
Goff Weaknesses
*Core strength: it is very evident to me that he is weak compared to almost any QB in the NFL. Watch Jim Everett to see how many times he threw off his back foot. Everett was strong. Goff can’t do that. He will be able to do that some day because of his wrist action---maybe to probably. We all get stronger until 28-30, so he has 5 years to ‘get there’, lol.
*Scanning: he is probably just average, but an upgrade from last year; but, look at Brady and Ryan their first 2 years, and you will find the same thing. Brady was just ok in 2001….and look at his 90 yards passing at the 2 min drill in the superbowl 36…
*Small hands: yep, it ain’t going away, and it is real. And, Goff is making it look unimportant. Did you see the Seattle game when the ball slipped out? Small hands affect spiral mostly (that is why Brees has such clean looking throws---huge hands).
*Physicality: when you are slight build you need your whole body to throw. Rogers was 185 pounds as a fresh/sophomore at Cal---now he is 225. When you are slight of build, you can’t do things other QBs do. So, you have to set up perfect, get your feet right, understand what angles you can throw at depending on feet direction etc. Goff is doing this A LOT better this year, so we don’t notice it. But, he has the #1 pass blocking line in the NFL. IF he has a bottom 10 line would notice this big time.
Where he needs to improve:
*Pocket awareness- when someone isn’t afraid,like Warner, it is easy to not have pocket awareness; I wonder if this is Goff’s problem, too.
*Scanning: he is doing a great job for a 3rd year guy. But, he isn’t at Wentz-level, yet…..he will be.
*Core strength
Not a weakness, BUT:
My only ‘problem' with saying Goff is the best:
He has the best pass blocking line in the NFL. He throws the ball without anyone coming at him to knock him down like it seems 70% of the time. What would Brady or Brees or Matilda Ryan or Wentz be like if they had that comfortability in the pocket? I want to see Goff play a game (like vs. Vikings in 2017) where he is uncomfortable all the time, but still putting up 8 ypa. He is at 10 ypa, which is Warner-like greatness. I actually believe he is better than Kurt already---though who was tougher than Kurt with that awful interior O line? Oh, and Goff has the best 3 route running WRs in the NFL....so, he has a lot that other QBs don't have. For example: Went'z WRs are weak.
Conclusion:
I have watched between 4-7 full NFL games 52 weeks a year the last 7 years. Usually, 1980-1988 and current day stuff. I have studied football quite a bit, too.
And so I say:
Goff is soooo special. Rare special; HOWEVER, a good part of his success is related to the incredible O line play. I have not seen ANY QB ever have the protection that Goff has had in 2017-2018. IF Goff were to produce like he is now without this great O line, I will say it again, he is on a Brees trajectory (lol, many laughed when I said this in the off season---and now, you know it is true!!!!!).
If I were to ignore that beautiful aspect of our O line greatness that Goff enjoys, I would say Goff is a better pocket passing QB than anybody right now—even Rogers and Brady. But, you can’t ignore the fact of our O line supporting him. When Rogers lost his LT and one other guy a few years ago (2015?) his YPA was 6.7---that is below average. How can that be? IT is a team sport. Goff benefits from this more than any QB I have ever watched. Marino had a great line, but a lightening release. Marino was still hit a lot! Goff, no.
For fun and to ruin any preconceptions of me:
Had Chris Miller had McVay, we would say Miller is one of the greats to play QB. Miller ran a 4.6 coming out, and no one threw consistently well like he did in 1989-1991…not Marino, no one. No one knew who he was because Atlanta sucked until 1991 (and Miller was always hurt). Miller was tough, and supposedly smart….but, golden arm like Goff…and a 1 handicap, to boot.
