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Well... lookie here! Rams on the list. Washington is not.
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The NFL Future Power Rankings didn't exist 24 months ago. If they had, a conservative estimate of where the currently No. 1 San Francisco 49ers would have landed would be somewhere from No. 24 to 28.
Consider the situation in June 2011: The team is coming off an oil spill of a 6-10 season and is now in the midst of a coaching transition. They are saddled with the antithesis of a franchise QB -- in a league where elite quarterbacking determines plenty, the 49ers have sixth-year pro Alex Smith, who just finished his best NFL season so far ranked 28th in QBR. The QB waiting in the wings? Troy Smith! The 49ers defense has some good pieces, but ranked 16th in total defense in 2010. The offense lacks weapons outside of Vernon Davis, scares nobody and ranked 24th in scoring.
Recent hindsight has made us take the brilliant coaching of Jim Harbaugh for granted; it tends to make people think things were more optimistic; it convinces us we really could see the silver lining. But we didn't. The future at that point was as inspiring as a Mike Singletary halftime pep talk.
Fast-forward to June 2013 and the 49ers appear built to contend for titles for years to come; they're a strong No. 1 overall in the first 2013 NFL Power Rankings. But let this serve as a reminder: In football, things change. And quickly. So, for the teams at the top of the rankings, I was asked to provide one reason apiece why the ranking you see today could plummet the next time we add it up. Top teams, I hereby warn thee.
Here's where it could easily go wrong.
1. Where the 49ers go wrong: Injuries become a reality
The 49ers front office deserves every ounce of praise it receives for building what is widely considered the NFL's deepest roster. But in the same way GMs might grouse about how smart the Colts front office is sure to look for years because they backed into Andrew Luck, they're doing the same right now about San Francisco's remarkable run of good health.
In a league of attrition, the 49ers in 2011 saw a revival through better coaching and significant player development, but also because they were one of the league's healthiest teams. In 2012 many of us expected the 49ers to regress. When they didn't, it could easily be chalked up to another year of exceptional coaching (it was) and a brilliant tactical move with the switch to Colin Kaepernick even while in first place (again, it was). But San Francisco also was four times as healthy as a typical NFL team last year according to Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost.
For evidence of why this matters, consider how much the defense was affected by the injury to Justin Smith late in the year. Any team looks deep when they never have to rely on the bench, and San Francisco is bound to run into the NFL reality of, you know, actual injuries. Here is a team that actually got better when the starting QB got hurt. Are they really so deep, or do they simply lack exposure to a constant NFL reality that has in large part bypassed them over the past two seasons?
2. Where the Packers go wrong: Rodgers plays like Superman
Aaron Rodgers is the league's most indispensable player right now. Just look at the 2011 Packers, who went 15-1 even with an atrocious defense. The Packers improved on defense in 2012, and the offense is strong because of Rodgers. But he also continued a trend of testing his superhuman powers (and fate) by holding onto the ball until the last moment as he looks to maximize every play. The only QBs who held the ball longer before throwing last season were Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Michael Vick and Cam Newton. Those guys did so with the run in mind more often. Rodgers is no slouch when it comes to scrambling, but he exposes himself to far too many hits, and plays with a Superman mentality. Last year, he was sacked a league-high 50 times, and too often because he refused to give up.
The Packers are clearly looking to take some pressure off via the run (see: the 2013 draft), but they must also hope that Rodgers starts to take into account his human side. We've seen Peyton Manning and Tom Brady be invincible right up until the moment they weren't. The durable Rodgers should keep it in mind.
3. Where the Seahawks go wrong: The sample size grows up
Wilson already has been anointed as a star, but do the Future Rankings voters recall that Seattle was 4-4 last year before the Seahawks opened up the playbook and saw Wilson truly take off? Do they realize that hot second halfs don't really tell us anything about what will happen next season? Seattle looks like a well-built team ready to contend for a Super Bowl title, but the flip side of that argument says we've really just seen a half-season of success, and we're in the midst of an offseason where teams are furiously scheming to stop players like Wilson, who've added another dimension to the QB position.
Is Seattle prepared to topple not just a loaded NFC West, but a league now more educated on how to limit their dynamic young QB? Is the extremely brief sample size of Seattle's greatness enough to bank on? There's a ton of promise, but there's also recency bias at play here.
4. Where the Ravens go wrong: They have to spread the wealth
Two things are true. One, the Ravens have a QB who, while merely average in terms of what he has shown as an NFL passer, is capable of winning huge games. Games like the Super Bowl. Two, because Joe Flacco has shown that ability, the Ravens are now set to pay Flacco an increasingly large portion of their annual salary cap in the coming years.
This is a front office and coaching staff that have been masterful when it comes to roster construction, finding value in the draft and limiting exposure when weaknesses are obvious. But they're now paying Flacco to be extraordinarily good. Can they continue to fill in the pieces around him with less cap space?
5. Where the Patriots go wrong: Playmakers start to matter
The Patriots have proved that the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is enough to overcome almost any roster deficiency. But in the past two years, the absence (or limited impact because of injury) of a top playmaker has in part derailed Super Bowl opportunities. When Rob Gronkowski has been out, the Patriots have been diminished. As Brady gets older, he may not drop off much. But can the Patriots overcome a lack of impact talent on both sides of the ball?
6. Where the Falcons go wrong: Age becomes an important stat
According to Football Outsiders' snap-weighted age, no NFL team played an older squad than Atlanta in 2012. They may have gotten younger in the secondary this offseason, but the Falcons are still going to field an older team as they attempt to keep Matt Ryan's title window wide open. Ryan is exceptional, but Atlanta is going to have to continue to be creative in outfitting the roster. It's a good thing the front office seems capable of doing so.
7. Where the Giants go wrong: Eli doesn't get conservative
Pop quiz. Which New York quarterback has thrown the most interceptions over the past four seasons. (Hint: That's the span of the starting career of Mark Sanchez.) Answer: Eli Manning. Yes, he has thrown more passes, but Manning doesn't just beat out Sanchez in INTs over that period, he has thrown more than any QB in the NFL.
Skip the whole "elite" debate for a minute and realize that Good Eli isn't a promise -- he comes and goes. Manning needs to limit mistakes more often for the Giants to continue to contend.
T8. Where the Rams go wrong: They don't achieve balance
Thanks to smart drafting and the trade that sent Washington the chance to take RG III, the Rams will enter 2014 with a roster absolutely packed with high-end talent. This isn't an opinion, it's a fact that any evaluator will acknowledge. But roster talent only matters in today's NFL if the other half of the equation -- strong quarterback play -- splits the workload. On paper, the Rams are built to contend with Seattle and San Francisco in the years to come. In reality, Bradford has to take a big step forward in his development. In 2013, Bradford will have the weapons. It's put-up time.
T8. Where the Colts go wrong: They take good Luck for granted
Bruce Arians has seen a lot of success working with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and Luck in Indianapolis. Both are dynamic talents, but both also share a common trait: They have proved capable of withstanding a beating to make the passing game go. Luck has a new offensive coordinator this season, and from those I've spoken to, that will mean more emphasis on protection. Good thing, because Luck's odometer did double time in 2012, when he took more hits than any QB in the NFL. If Indy takes his sturdiness for granted, both in scheme and in personnel decisions on the offensive line, it could set them back.
10. Where the Saints go wrong: Brees can't compensate
Draft decisions such as trading a future first-rounder for the chance to draft Mark Ingram and the bounty scandal have diminished the talent level of the Saints. The presence of Drew Brees means they can compete with almost anyone in 2013, but if Brees shows any hints of typical age declines, the Saints aren't deep enough elsewhere to compensate. Where would this team be ranked with a league-average QB at the helm? If Brees resembles one -- and he did more often than we'd like to admit last season -- the Saints take a big step back.
<a class="postlink" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9402396/nfl-weaknesses-top-10-teams-future-power-rankings" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... r-rankings</a>
The NFL Future Power Rankings didn't exist 24 months ago. If they had, a conservative estimate of where the currently No. 1 San Francisco 49ers would have landed would be somewhere from No. 24 to 28.
Consider the situation in June 2011: The team is coming off an oil spill of a 6-10 season and is now in the midst of a coaching transition. They are saddled with the antithesis of a franchise QB -- in a league where elite quarterbacking determines plenty, the 49ers have sixth-year pro Alex Smith, who just finished his best NFL season so far ranked 28th in QBR. The QB waiting in the wings? Troy Smith! The 49ers defense has some good pieces, but ranked 16th in total defense in 2010. The offense lacks weapons outside of Vernon Davis, scares nobody and ranked 24th in scoring.
Recent hindsight has made us take the brilliant coaching of Jim Harbaugh for granted; it tends to make people think things were more optimistic; it convinces us we really could see the silver lining. But we didn't. The future at that point was as inspiring as a Mike Singletary halftime pep talk.
Fast-forward to June 2013 and the 49ers appear built to contend for titles for years to come; they're a strong No. 1 overall in the first 2013 NFL Power Rankings. But let this serve as a reminder: In football, things change. And quickly. So, for the teams at the top of the rankings, I was asked to provide one reason apiece why the ranking you see today could plummet the next time we add it up. Top teams, I hereby warn thee.
Here's where it could easily go wrong.
1. Where the 49ers go wrong: Injuries become a reality
The 49ers front office deserves every ounce of praise it receives for building what is widely considered the NFL's deepest roster. But in the same way GMs might grouse about how smart the Colts front office is sure to look for years because they backed into Andrew Luck, they're doing the same right now about San Francisco's remarkable run of good health.
In a league of attrition, the 49ers in 2011 saw a revival through better coaching and significant player development, but also because they were one of the league's healthiest teams. In 2012 many of us expected the 49ers to regress. When they didn't, it could easily be chalked up to another year of exceptional coaching (it was) and a brilliant tactical move with the switch to Colin Kaepernick even while in first place (again, it was). But San Francisco also was four times as healthy as a typical NFL team last year according to Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost.
For evidence of why this matters, consider how much the defense was affected by the injury to Justin Smith late in the year. Any team looks deep when they never have to rely on the bench, and San Francisco is bound to run into the NFL reality of, you know, actual injuries. Here is a team that actually got better when the starting QB got hurt. Are they really so deep, or do they simply lack exposure to a constant NFL reality that has in large part bypassed them over the past two seasons?
2. Where the Packers go wrong: Rodgers plays like Superman
Aaron Rodgers is the league's most indispensable player right now. Just look at the 2011 Packers, who went 15-1 even with an atrocious defense. The Packers improved on defense in 2012, and the offense is strong because of Rodgers. But he also continued a trend of testing his superhuman powers (and fate) by holding onto the ball until the last moment as he looks to maximize every play. The only QBs who held the ball longer before throwing last season were Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Michael Vick and Cam Newton. Those guys did so with the run in mind more often. Rodgers is no slouch when it comes to scrambling, but he exposes himself to far too many hits, and plays with a Superman mentality. Last year, he was sacked a league-high 50 times, and too often because he refused to give up.
The Packers are clearly looking to take some pressure off via the run (see: the 2013 draft), but they must also hope that Rodgers starts to take into account his human side. We've seen Peyton Manning and Tom Brady be invincible right up until the moment they weren't. The durable Rodgers should keep it in mind.
3. Where the Seahawks go wrong: The sample size grows up
Wilson already has been anointed as a star, but do the Future Rankings voters recall that Seattle was 4-4 last year before the Seahawks opened up the playbook and saw Wilson truly take off? Do they realize that hot second halfs don't really tell us anything about what will happen next season? Seattle looks like a well-built team ready to contend for a Super Bowl title, but the flip side of that argument says we've really just seen a half-season of success, and we're in the midst of an offseason where teams are furiously scheming to stop players like Wilson, who've added another dimension to the QB position.
Is Seattle prepared to topple not just a loaded NFC West, but a league now more educated on how to limit their dynamic young QB? Is the extremely brief sample size of Seattle's greatness enough to bank on? There's a ton of promise, but there's also recency bias at play here.
4. Where the Ravens go wrong: They have to spread the wealth
Two things are true. One, the Ravens have a QB who, while merely average in terms of what he has shown as an NFL passer, is capable of winning huge games. Games like the Super Bowl. Two, because Joe Flacco has shown that ability, the Ravens are now set to pay Flacco an increasingly large portion of their annual salary cap in the coming years.
This is a front office and coaching staff that have been masterful when it comes to roster construction, finding value in the draft and limiting exposure when weaknesses are obvious. But they're now paying Flacco to be extraordinarily good. Can they continue to fill in the pieces around him with less cap space?
5. Where the Patriots go wrong: Playmakers start to matter
The Patriots have proved that the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is enough to overcome almost any roster deficiency. But in the past two years, the absence (or limited impact because of injury) of a top playmaker has in part derailed Super Bowl opportunities. When Rob Gronkowski has been out, the Patriots have been diminished. As Brady gets older, he may not drop off much. But can the Patriots overcome a lack of impact talent on both sides of the ball?
6. Where the Falcons go wrong: Age becomes an important stat
According to Football Outsiders' snap-weighted age, no NFL team played an older squad than Atlanta in 2012. They may have gotten younger in the secondary this offseason, but the Falcons are still going to field an older team as they attempt to keep Matt Ryan's title window wide open. Ryan is exceptional, but Atlanta is going to have to continue to be creative in outfitting the roster. It's a good thing the front office seems capable of doing so.
7. Where the Giants go wrong: Eli doesn't get conservative
Pop quiz. Which New York quarterback has thrown the most interceptions over the past four seasons. (Hint: That's the span of the starting career of Mark Sanchez.) Answer: Eli Manning. Yes, he has thrown more passes, but Manning doesn't just beat out Sanchez in INTs over that period, he has thrown more than any QB in the NFL.
Skip the whole "elite" debate for a minute and realize that Good Eli isn't a promise -- he comes and goes. Manning needs to limit mistakes more often for the Giants to continue to contend.
T8. Where the Rams go wrong: They don't achieve balance
Thanks to smart drafting and the trade that sent Washington the chance to take RG III, the Rams will enter 2014 with a roster absolutely packed with high-end talent. This isn't an opinion, it's a fact that any evaluator will acknowledge. But roster talent only matters in today's NFL if the other half of the equation -- strong quarterback play -- splits the workload. On paper, the Rams are built to contend with Seattle and San Francisco in the years to come. In reality, Bradford has to take a big step forward in his development. In 2013, Bradford will have the weapons. It's put-up time.
T8. Where the Colts go wrong: They take good Luck for granted
Bruce Arians has seen a lot of success working with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and Luck in Indianapolis. Both are dynamic talents, but both also share a common trait: They have proved capable of withstanding a beating to make the passing game go. Luck has a new offensive coordinator this season, and from those I've spoken to, that will mean more emphasis on protection. Good thing, because Luck's odometer did double time in 2012, when he took more hits than any QB in the NFL. If Indy takes his sturdiness for granted, both in scheme and in personnel decisions on the offensive line, it could set them back.
10. Where the Saints go wrong: Brees can't compensate
Draft decisions such as trading a future first-rounder for the chance to draft Mark Ingram and the bounty scandal have diminished the talent level of the Saints. The presence of Drew Brees means they can compete with almost anyone in 2013, but if Brees shows any hints of typical age declines, the Saints aren't deep enough elsewhere to compensate. Where would this team be ranked with a league-average QB at the helm? If Brees resembles one -- and he did more often than we'd like to admit last season -- the Saints take a big step back.