Football Outsiders has bought in and is showing us some love

[OldSchool]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.

Link to their DVOA chart:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff


The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratingsof the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

The Weighted DVOA ratings used in the simulation are adjusted as follows:

• In Weeks 11-15, Dallas rating drops -8.0% due to Ezekiel Elliott suspension.
• Arizona rating goes up 8.0% with David Johnson returning Week 14 in 20 percent of simulations; in the other 80 percent of simulations, Johnson does not return this season. Arizona rating is also adjusted (-6.4%) for Drew Stanton replacing Carson Palmer.
• Green Bay rating is adjusted (-10.5%) for Brett Hundley replacing Aaron Rodgers. In 10 percent of simulations, Rodgers returns with Green Bay getting a 20.0% DVOA bonus from Week 15 onwards.
• Houston rating is adjusted (-13.6%) for Tom Savage replacing Deshaun Watson. (The adjustment is larger than the one for Green Bay because the current Houston rating includes more Watson games than the Green Bay rating includes Rodgers games.)
• Tampa Bay rating is adjusted (-13.0%) for Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing Jameis Winston in Week 11. Winston returns in Week 12 in one-third of simulations, in Week 13 in one-third of simulations, and in Week 14 in one-third of simulations.

I'm all in for on to the Vikings but this is an interesting read their DVOA is a fun follow as well, they really weigh special teams heavy.

 

[LACHAMP46]

of all the sites, stats....new stuff....Football Outsiders is the best...I wish PFF would combine with them....merge....

I'd love to see us in the SB...versus the Pats....

 

[bubbaramfan]

So why play the games? We have football outsiders.

 

[Zodi]

God how much I want a Superbowl 36 rematch.

Could you imagine the rookie McVay taking down who many consider the greatest (cheater) head coach of all time?

 

[DaveFan'51]

of all the sites, stats....new stuff....Football Outsiders is the best...I wish PFF would combine with them....merge....

I'd love to see us in the SB...versus the Pats....

I would like to see a rematch of either SB XIV or SB XXXVI Both would serve as great revenge games! But Whipping-Up on the Cheatriots would be most pleasing!!:yess: