Early 2020 position outlook: Safety

[ROD-BOT]

Early 2020 position outlook: Safety

We wrap up our early position outlook series by examining the safeties.

www.therams.com

Early 2020 position outlook: Safety

After examining the Rams' offense, defense and special teams following the 2020 NFL Draft, theRams.com will take a deeper look at each position group as we get closer to the upcoming season. The series concludes with the safeties.

Who's back

Jake Gervase: Signed as an undrafted free agent last year, Gervase spent the majority of the season on the practice squad but did see action in a couple games.

John Johnson III: Suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the Rams' Week 6 loss to the 49ers, but still managed to have 50 total tackles, two pass breakups and two interceptions last year prior to the setback.

Taylor Rapp: Took over for Johnson after his injury and started the remaining 10 games alongside safety Eric Weddle, producing 100 total tackles and a pair of interceptions.

Nick Scott: The 2019 seventh-round pick primarily contributed on special teams as a rookie, tallying eight tackles.

Who's gone

Marqui Christian: The former 2016 fifth-round pick became an unrestricted free agent at the start of the new league year after his rookie contract expired. He reportedly agreed to a deal with the New York Jets that later fell through, so he remains a free agent.

Eric Weddle: Retired in February.

Who's new

Terrell Burgess: Chosen with the Rams' third-round compensatory selection this year, Burgess was named honorable mention all-conference by Pac-12 coaches after he collected 81 tackles, 7.5 for loss, one interception and five pass breakups while starting in 14 games in 2019. Burgess' 81 tackles led Utah's defensive backfield and were third-most on the team.

Jordan Fuller: The sixth-round pick out of Ohio State produced 62 tackles, two interceptions and four pass breakups in 14 starts en route to first team All-Big Ten honors in 2019.

JuJu Hughes: Undrafted free agent signee out of Fresno State whose 80 tackles as a senior marked a single-season career best and third-most on the team. Hughes was a two-time All-Mountain West honorable mention selection (2017, 2019) and second-team All-Mountain West selection (2018) during his four-year college career.

Key question(s)

What does a Johnson-Rapp safety tandem look like? Johnson said this spring their skillsets complement each other well and that Rapp is more versatile than people think.

How, if at all, do the responsibilities of the safeties change in Brandon Staley's defense? While Staley indicated there wouldn't be wholesale changes to the Rams' defense, he has also said how much he values versatility in the secondary – specifically, the ability for defensive backs to play at the front end or the back end.

 

[CGI_Ram]

Will LA Rams S John Johnson 2020 return ensure a 2021 new contract?

Will LA Rams S Johnson return from injury be enough to ensure that he is offered a new 2021 contract to return to the Los Angeles Rams?

ramblinfan.com

Will LA Rams S Johnson return from injury be enough to ensure a new 2021 contract?

The LA Rams are banking hard upon the healthy return of 2019 injured starting safety John Johnson III. After all, since arriving at the LA Rams from the 2017 NFL Draft as the 91st selection, he has performed no less than stellar for the Rams. In three seasons with the Rams, he has been a 32 game starter. He started 11 games as a 2017 rookie, all 16 games in his second year, and just five games in 2019 due to an untimely injury.

Now, the LA Rams must hope that he will return to his former self. Like many of the LA Rams in 2019, he was not at the top of his game before falling to that season-ending injury. In fact, his Pro Football Focus grade for 2019 was a disappointing 53.5. Compare that to his 2018 grade from PFF of 84.1, or his 2017 grade of 82.9. The LA Rams are counting on Johnson as the defense takes on the new schemes of defensive coordinator Brandon Staley.

PFF believes he’ll do exactly that

Pro Football Focus writer Timo Riske wrote about Johnson in his February 2020 article entitles The young defensive players most deserving of an early contract extension. In his article, he names seven such young defensive players who would be wisely extended now as their 2020 performance will make them very expensive players to sign in 2021. And in the case of Johnson’s lack of playing time in 2019, the author correctly points out that the Rams could sign Johnson below his market value if they act now.

Per that estimation, Johnson is in line for an average payout of $16.4 million per year. But if he performs at the level he is capable of playing at, that cost could skyrocket to a price per year of greater than $20 million per year. Per the article, Johnson is elite in his pass coverage, averaging a grade of 90.7 in pass defense since 2017. In run defense, which he was tasked with about 50 percent of the time, he is an average 70.6 grade.

2021 may find 2020 rookie promotions

As the LA Rams project to the 2021 season, the team has several key contributors whose contracts expire. The team projects to lose WR Cooper Kupp, WR Josh Reynolds, TE Gerald Everett, CB Jalen Ramsey, and S John Johnson to name a few. Right now, with so much uncertainty about the 2021 salary cap, the Rams may focus their efforts on re-signing CB Jalen Ramsey alone.

That could mean that rookies WR Van Jefferson, TE Bryce Hopkins, and safeties Terrell Burgess and Jordan Fuller are in line for promotion in 2021. In fact, the LA Rams draft strategy for 2020 seemed to be as much about who held expiring contracts at the end of 2020 as it was to sign young talent who would benefit the team this season. We know that the Rams would like to re-sign WR Cooper Kupp and CB Jalen Ramsey to the roster in 2021. Hopefully, safety John Johnson III can make himself indispensable as well.

 

[Mister Sin]

Our back end is stacked as well as anyone in the league. IMO.

I personally don't see us paying Johnson unless he's a freak this year. Its cheaper to go with Rapp and whoever is up next. Atleast, that's where my mind would be if I was running things. I look at it as a McCloud type deal.

 

[FaulkSF]

Wondering if the 2019 fall off has anything to do with JJ being to cover Weddle's zone too.

 

[BonifayRam]

Wondering if the 2019 fall off has anything to do with JJ being to cover Weddle's zone too.

Safety Weddle's one year Ram performance in 2020 was lame flaccid limp & feeble. The entire DB 2019 performance greatly suffered as a result of him starting.

I truly expect great play from safeties Rapp/ JJ III/ Gervase & those three rookies!
.

 

[den-the-coach]

I truly expect great play from safeties Rapp/ JJ III/ Gervase & those three rookies!
.

Wow you included Jake Gervase be interesting to see if he makes the roster.

 

[bluecoconuts]

I’m excited to see Johnson and Rapp together. Them, plus Ramsey, Hill, and Long should make for a really good secondary. Really the only question at defense is linebacker for me.

 

[oldnotdead]

I personally think the safety position is very good this year. I see Johnson and Rapp as the starters. With Burgess behind Johnson and Rapp.

This is a contract year for Johnson and I feel that the drafting of Burgess and Fuller signals that the Rams feel they will be outbid for Johnson or that they will allow him to walk. Johnson's weakness is his marginal speed to play FS in a single high scheme. Having 4.6 timed speed is fine for a safety in a two-deep shell. But it doesn't give him the range in a single high scheme. That's why I feel that Burgess is penciled in as their FS next year.

The problem with Fuller is his timed speed. I've watched multiple games that Fuller played, and he's definitely a SS at this level. Unlike Rapp who played faster than his timed speed, Fuller's slower timed speed is evident on film. At Ohio State Fuller was often in a FS position and too many times he was simply a step or two late to the play. The difference in Rapp and Fuller is evident when you watch their play. Rapp reads faster and anticipates the play allowing him to play fast. Fuller is clearly trying to read the play and then react to what he thinks he sees. Some of it was OS's scheme to be sure. But other times the delay in his reactions coupled with his slower timed-speed makes him late. Do I see potential? Absolutely there is. Improving his play recognition and improving his speed with proper training will make a huge difference in Fuller. Being teamed with Rapp and watching how he trains should give Fuller the roadmap he needs.

Both Gervase and Scott got game snaps beyond STs last year. Both played like rookies in development. But both have the athleticism the Rams love and both have good potential to become good safeties. Marqui Christian came into the NFL very raw. But 3 years later in 2019 Christian showed that he has the talent to play at this level. I can see the same type of projections for both Scott and Gervase. Although IMO Gervase has the highest potential of the 3 with excellent size and good speed for the position allowing him to play SS or FS.

Fuller will have to beat out either Gervase or Scott which is asking a lot as both of the others have played well on STs.

 

[CGI_Ram]

Per that estimation, Johnson is in line for an average payout of $16.4 million per year. But if he performs at the level he is capable of playing at, that cost could skyrocket to a price per year of greater than $20 million per year.

This is a contract year for Johnson and I feel that the drafting of Burgess and Fuller signals that the Rams feel they will be outbid for Johnson or that they will allow him to walk.

Yeah, at those contract levels... a Johnson extension won’t happen. We just can’t afford it.

 

[BonifayRam]

Wow you included Jake Gervase be interesting to see if he makes the roster.

Yes I know a real surprise to most Ram fans I would imagine.

But that's based on what I observed from Jake Gervase in his four pre-season gms & in the 2 late 2019 season action. JG is far more strong safety than deep safety, but he is a quick good thinker on the field & his ends up @ the right spot more often than not for a UDFA rookie. JG far outplayed our drafted 2019 safety Nick Scott in pre-season when he was taking snaps with the defense. NS does have a sizable edge on JG in the ST unit. I am not down on NS @ the deep safety post either. NS has that natural great speed & we did see a great flash of that on that big 4th down trick play.

If 3rd rd selection DB Terrell Burgess ends up being more Nickel & Dime corner than ending up in the safety unit......the safety Gervase will get a chance to make this team again IMO. If 2020 6th rd selection Jordan Fuller is what as advertised then the TC & pre-season battles will get very intense. @ this early point in time I see rookie Fuller & NS playing behind JJ III @ deep safety. I see JG playing behind Taylor Rapp who is bound to be seen closer to the LOS.

Snead brought in some good competition for JG @ SS in Juju Hughes & Dayan Lake. In addition, Snead did the same @ FS/DS with Tyrique McGhee, Levonta Taylor & said above Jordan Fuller & Terrell Burgess

I am just real pleased with the safety unit that Snead has signed @ this time. I really do not have a dog in this upcoming TC & pre-season fight either. The real goal this upcoming TC & preseason for DC Staley & coach Ejiro Evero is who will replace starting safety in 2021 UFA JJ III when he departs for mega large contract elsewhere...will it be Nickle CB Burgess thus causing an opening hole @ the Nickle post or........................................

 

[den-the-coach]

I am just real pleased with the safety unit that Snead has signed @ this time. I really do not have a dog in this upcoming TC & pre-season fight either. The real goal this upcoming TC & preseason for DC Staley & coach Ejiro Evero is who will replace starting safety in 2021 UFA JJ III when he departs for mega large contract elsewhere...will it be Nickle CB Burgess thus causing an opening hole @ the Nickle post or........................................

If Johnson leaves, then Burgess steps in and IMO, it will be Long or Williams that will be the Nickle this season, with Burgess playing the dime back. Burgess & Rapp in 2022 with a draft choice coming in most likely, but Hill could depart too, so that will leave a hole at RCB that will have to be filled by either Williams or Long.

 

[BonifayRam]

If Johnson leaves, then Burgess steps in and IMO, it will be Long or Williams that will be the Nickle this season, with Burgess playing the dime back. Burgess & Rapp in 2022 with a draft choice coming in most likely, but Hill could depart too, so that will leave a hole at RCB that will have to be filled by either Williams or Long.

Rams will have FOUR CB's involved in Free agency in March of next year. Ramsey-Williams-Hill & Deayon. 3 will be UFA's & 1 RFA. I'm thinking that Burgess remains in the CB unit for the 2021 season. I see the replacement for JJ III will come out of this 2020 seasons coach Ejiro Evero unit due to the big issues with Ram corner departures.

Never know just how things will work out Levonta Taylor might also surprise us as a Nickel corner too, thus giving Burgess a chance to play deep safety.

 

[Dick84]

I'm really looking forward to watching Rapp and JJ together. Both guys play really fast and both guys make plays on the ball. Should be fun.
I'm with those thinking that JJ will play his way off the roster, and that's a bummer. I see the Burgess pick as planning ahead. I think he'll get plenty of action this year and be ready to go. He's got more pure speed than JJ and has shown plenty of smarts in college.
I'm intrigued by Gervase working into the M Christian roll and wonder if Scott can be more than a special teams ace at some point. He's got RIDICULOUS athleticism, so you'd think he could get there.
I think Rapp is very underrated, at this point. He's a playmaker.

 

[Merlin]

Our back end is stacked as well as anyone in the league. IMO.

They really are. I couldn't be happier with this safety group and the starters won't be able to relax. It's gonna be a fun camp.

 

[Dick84]

A safety tangent.. have heard rumors about Jamaal Adams being linked to Seattle or SF. Got me looking at him and Rapp... For what someone will pay for Adams.. I love Rapp. He had an arguably better Rookie year than Adams and a lot of similarities, imo.

 

[oldnotdead]

The scheme Adams played in had a lot to do with his production. Note he was used to blitz a lot and when you look at his coverage skills, Rapp is clearly the better safety. The Jets played Adams like most teams would play a coverage ILB. Frankly, I don't see the reason for his hype. Adams is a good SS but I don't see the "elite" player some say he is. IMO Rapp is a far better SS overall.