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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction: AFC East's Top Teams Meet Again
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills AFC East game, with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: AFC East's Top Teams Meet Again
The Miami Dolphins will head north for the final game of their three-game road trip where they'll meet the Buffalo Bills, who not only lead the AFC East but also enter Week 15 as the top team in the conference. Buffalo looks to use the momentum from its four-game winning streak to bounce back from its Week 3 loss against Miami, the Dolphins' first win over their division rival since 2018.These two division foes find themselves trending in opposite directions going into this week. The Dolphins (8-5) lost their second straight road game after a stretch of five consecutive wins, falling 23-17 to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night. Miami trailed 17-7 going into halftime and was unable to complete the comeback as the offense mustered just 219 total yards all night, the Dolphins' second-lowest output of the season … better only than their Week 3 showing (212 total yards) against these Bills.
Buffalo (10-3), meanwhile, overcame some inclement weather in Orchard Park last week to come out with a 20-12 win against the New York Jets and extend its own run. A game that started with 10 straight punts followed by the only scoring drive of the first half — capped off by Josh Allen finding Dawson Knox for a 24-yard touchdown in the final minute of the second quarter — saw the Bills force a pair of second-half fumbles and hold the Jets to just five fourth-quarter points to prevent a comeback of their own.
This current winning streak is actually not the first of its kind in 2022 for Buffalo. The Bills rebounded from that Week 3 two-point loss in Miami with four consecutive wins, and — after a pair of three-point losses — their position atop the AFC heading into Week 15 has been fueled by another four-game winning streak, with three of those last four wins coming by one possession.
Speaking of that tense 21-19 Week 3 clash, a win this week for Miami would all but mirror a sequence hardly seen in the last dozen seasons. Miami hasn't collected consecutive wins against Buffalo since sweeping the two meetings in 2016 — which also saw a one-possession Dolphins win in Miami followed by the second win in Orchard Park — and such a pair of consecutive wins would mark just the third such stretch for the Dolphins since 2011.
Miami (8-5) at Buffalo (10-3)
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 17, at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Bills -7
Tickets: As low as $118 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. Who will be Josh Allen's top receiver?
Diversifying the targets in the passing game is often a smart approach, and Buffalo has done just that during its current four-game winning streak. Diggs led the way in five of the first six wins, while the Bills' last four wins have seen three different leading receivers. In wins over the Browns, Lions, Patriots, and Jets, the Bills have been led by Knox, Isaiah McKenzie, and Stefon Diggs, with Knox (Browns, Jets) the only receiver to repeat atop the yardage totals for Buffalo during the most recent streak.
And when looking at targets instead of simply yardage totals, the production becomes even more spread out. Five different Bills have been among Allen's top three targets during these last four wins, with Diggs among the top three in each of the four wins while Knox, McKenzie, James Cook, and Gabe Davis each did so twice. Allen's ability to spread the ball around and keep defenses on their heels with where he'll be going next has been a primary driver of the offense's success in these recent wins, and it will likely be a key factor for Buffalo to keep it going.
2. Can Tyreek Hill help Miami's offense bounce back?
Buffalo's defense has been one of the league's best all season, keeping 12 of 13 opponents under 30 points and allowing just 17 points per game in 2022 (second in the NFL). Going up against that stingy of a unit won't make it any easier for Miami's offense to rebound from being largely invisible in Week 14 when the Dolphins rushed for only 92 yards and Tua Tagovailoa completed just 10 of his 28 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown.
Both of Miami's touchdowns on Sunday — the 60-yard pass from Tagovailoa and a fumble recovered on a Jeff Wilson Jr. carry — came via the speed and playmaking ability of Hill, a key factor in any hopes that the Dolphins' offense has of rebounding from last Sunday's output. In five previous meetings while Hill was with Kansas City, Buffalo largely kept him under wraps in the regular season, when he caught 19 of 31 targets for a total of 157 yards and no touchdowns. In two playoff games against Buffalo, however, Hill has brought in 20 of 24 targets for 322 yards and a touchdown, chalking up more than 16 yards per reception across those two games. That's the kind of performance that Miami will look to get out of Hill on Saturday night, as Hill managed just 33 yards on a pair of receptions in Week 3 and will aim to break free from the regular-season struggles against Buffalo that have persisted throughout his career.
3. Will the Dolphins' defense continue to struggle on the road?
Miami has allowed the fifth-most points among AFC teams in 2022, and a large part of the defense's inability to keep opponents off the scoreboard has come away from Hard Rock Stadium. Miami is just 3-4 on the road this season, and the Dolphins have allowed more than 31 points per game in those seven road games.
But the Dolphins' defense kept Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers to just 23 points last Sunday — their fewest points allowed on the road so far this season — with just six points yielded in the second half on a pair of field goals. While the Chargers posted 432 total yards on Sunday, the Dolphins' ability to limit their scoring opportunities presents a positive outlook on what's to come. And Buffalo has only surpassed 30 points once in its last four home games, so if Miami can mirror last week's performance against Los Angeles, then the Dolphins could be showing signs of a step in the right direction entering the final weeks of the regular season.
Final Analysis
Buffalo more than doubled Miami's production in Week 3 even though the Dolphins ultimately came out on top, a theme that has been common for both teams as of late. While Miami enters this week still firmly in the playoff picture, Buffalo's balanced success on both offense and defense just presents too big of a challenge for the Dolphins to overcome this week.
Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 20
