Does a Stafford retirement put a QB in play with the Rams' 2nd round pick?

[MadGoat]

I still think retirement is unlikely, but it does create an interesting situation. This draft seems somewhat unique in that I can see a few decent QBs lasting until the Rams' pick in the 2nd. The elephant in the room is Will Levis making it to the Rams' pick. If there is anyone who knows his value in the NFL, it's his former OC. It seems like a QB-less Rams team passing on him would be a pretty damning situation.

I also feel like this team with a stop-gap QB will never get a star QB prospect, even with a first round pick.

 

[Riverumbbq]

While I don't believe Stafford is about to retire, should he so choose to, then I suspect that Snead would use not only our 2023 2'nd round draft pick, but might also sacrifice our next couple 1'st round picks from 2024 & 2025 to move up in next years draft. jmo.

 

[dieterbrock]

Is this a "what will Rams do about QB in 2023 draft?" thread, or a Will Levis thread?
Because the only connection I see with Levis and the Rams is that Detroit might be drafting him with the Rams 1st round pick....

 

[RamFan503]

Stafford is not retiring. But I do see them figuring out his replacement in '24. Not that he'll retire then unless they bring in an established vet. But I have to suspect they already have their eyes on someone.

 

[jrry32]

Regardless of whether Stafford retires or doesn't, the Rams need to take a long look at the QBs in this class and see if they can find a guy with potential on Day 2 or early Day 3. I'll say that I'm not a big Will Levis fan.

However, I do like Hendon Hooker from Tennessee. He tore his ACL, which will likely cause him to drop in the Draft. He's also an older prospect (24 years old) and plays in a gimmicky system. That all said, he's an accurate passer, has good instincts, a lot of mobility, and a quality arm. I could see him having a Dak-like career in the right spot.

 

[Memento]

Regardless of whether Stafford retires or doesn't, the Rams need to take a long look at the QBs in this class and see if they can find a guy with potential on Day 2 or early Day 3. I'll say that I'm not a big Will Levis fan.

However, I do like Hendon Hooker from Tennessee. He tore his ACL, which will likely cause him to drop in the Draft. He's also an older prospect (24 years old) and plays in a gimmicky system. That all said, he's an accurate passer, has good instincts, a lot of mobility, and a quality arm. I could see him having a Dak-like career in the right spot.

I'm guessing you think that Anthony Richardson isn't going to fall to our pick in the second? He'd be my choice.

 

[jrry32]

I'm guessing you think that Anthony Richardson isn't going to fall to our pick in the second? He'd be my choice.

I want nothing to do with Anthony Richardson. He may well become an elite QB, as he's one of the most physically gifted QBs I've ever seen. But I don't believe in him. He's an erratic passer who is mentally fragile. QBs need a short memory, and he doesn't have one. When he starts to struggle, his game falls completely apart, and then he starts pouting. He also always seems to be dealing with some injury. (And he pissed me off by spending most of the season acting like he's a pocket passer and turning down opportunities to gash defenses with his legs.)

 

[oldnotdead]

I don't think a QB of the future is on the menu in 2023. Instead, I think Snead would be wise to not spend his first round picks in 2024 & 2025 in 2023. If Stafford retires it will be most likely in 2024 or 2025 due to concussions. If Michael Penix doesn't enter next year's draft like he might not, then he most certainly will in 2024. This will give Snead the ammo he needs to move up and grab Penix or whoever they want. I say Penix because his skill set is a perfect fit for McVay's offense, McVay wouldn't have to change a thing. Give him one or two years to learn behind Stafford and the Rams will have a franchise QB.

Yet another scenario could be in play. Justin Herbert will be in a contract year in 2023. It is not a given that cheapass Spanos won't extend him on his fifth year, and then try to trade him. Also, it's not a given that Herbert won't ask for a trade to get into a winning organization. He would be worth 3 first round picks because he will be in the prime of his career at 25 and is another scheme fit for McVay's offense.

IMO The Rams have to know that Stafford is year to year from here on out. Another serious concussion and I think retirement will be a reality, sooner rather than later. The Rams need to be proactive. By drafting a QB in 2024 they would have their heir apparent on the roster learning from one of the best as their #2 QB.

Reality is in Stafford's contract. The out year would be 2026 where they would save about $37M on his contract. So it makes sense if you draft a QB in 2024. You can often see the FO's intent in the contract structure. If they get a QB like Herbert or Penix it will keep McVay around for a lot longer.

 

[Memento]

I want nothing to do with Anthony Richardson. He may well become an elite QB, as he's one of the most physically gifted QBs I've ever seen. But I don't believe in him. He's an erratic passer who is mentally fragile. QBs need a short memory, and he doesn't have one. When he starts to struggle, his game falls completely apart, and then he starts pouting. He also always seems to be dealing with some injury. (And he pissed me off by spending most of the season acting like he's a pocket passer and turning down opportunities to gash defenses with his legs.)

I don’t think trying to be a pocket passer is a terrible thing in itself; it may piss off fans of the team, but so long as he’s improving, I can’t criticize a young collegiate quarterback for that.

As for his other issues, a lot of them were supposedly issues of Josh Allen (being an erratic passer). I admittedly would love to see what McVay and learning under Stafford could do for this kid.

 

[jrry32]

I don’t think trying to be a pocket passer is a terrible thing in itself; it may piss off fans of the team, but so long as he’s improving, I can’t criticize a young collegiate quarterback for that.

As for his other issues, a lot of them were supposedly issues of Josh Allen (being an erratic passer). I admittedly would love to see what McVay and learning under Stafford could do for this kid.

It's a terrible thing when it's costing your team games. I want a winner at QB. And yes, Josh Allen had some similar issues, but so did a million other QBs who didn't pan out.

 

[Memento]

It's a terrible thing when it's costing your team games. I want a winner at QB. And yes, Josh Allen had some similar issues, but so did a million other QBs who didn't pan out.

Again, we’re talking college. You don’t think he won’t correct it in the professional league with professional coaches? College is a job as well, true, but it’s also a learning place. Learning to improve happens most often in college.

Richardson honestly reminds me of Allen, faults and all. Maybe he needs to improve, but as you yourself said, he’s one of the most physically impressive quarterbacks you’ve seen. For a second round pick, I’d gladly take the chance of having an elite quarterback.

 

[jrry32]

Again, we’re talking college. You don’t think he won’t correct it in the professional league with professional coaches? College is a job as well, true, but it’s also a learning place. Learning to improve happens most often in college.

Richardson honestly reminds me of Allen, faults and all. Maybe he needs to improve, but as you yourself said, he’s one of the most physically impressive quarterbacks you’ve seen. For a second round pick, I’d gladly take the chance of having an elite quarterback.

I want nothing to do with a QB who puts himself before his team. Winners want to win in college too. I'd rather spend a second round pick on a guy who is actually good at playing QB. I'd take Hendon Hooker long before I took Richardson. Richardson is much younger, so it's understandable that he's a lot more raw. But I'm not spending a premium pick on a guy I don't believe in.

 

[Memento]

I want nothing to do with a QB who puts himself before his team. Winners want to win in college too. I'd rather spend a second round pick on a guy who is actually good at playing QB. I'd take Hendon Hooker long before I took Richardson.

A twenty-four-year-old quarterback who has a recent ACL tear and plays in a gimmick offense? Who doesn’t have the best arm strength, stares down his receivers, and struggles with reads? No thanks. I’ll take upside over safe all the time, and to me, Hooker is a backup/spot starter at best. If I want a quarterback with the issues Hooker has, he had damn well better have elite measurables, especially if he’s twenty-four (and will be twenty-five come Draft day).

 

[jrry32]

A twenty-four-year-old quarterback who has a recent ACL tear and plays in a gimmick offense? Who doesn’t have the best arm strength, stares down his receivers, and struggles with reads? No thanks. I’ll take upside over safe all the time, and to me, Hooker is a backup/spot starter at best. If I want a quarterback with the issues Hooker has, he had damn well better have elite measurables, especially if he’s twenty-four (and will be twenty-five come Draft day).

58 TDs to 5 Ints and completing nearly 70% of his passes in the SEC. It suffices to say that I disagree that he struggles with reads. Accurate, good decision maker, smart, very mobile, and plenty of arm. His completion percentage is also 8-10% better than the other QBs who have succeeded in that system (Lock, Milton, and Gabriel). His age and injury will cut against him, but he can play. Florida would have been a far better team if they had him instead of Richardson this year.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfAKl5xP9sA

 

[jrry32]

The way I see it, once you get outside the first round, QBs always have question marks. The gimmicky system Hooker plays in makes his ability to transition to the NFL where he'll have to throw into tighter windows, make tougher reads, and attack the middle of the field much more often a question mark. But his athleticism, touch, and accuracy are translatable skills.

Frankly, every QB comes into the NFL with question marks about how they'll mentally handle the more complex defenses and schemes. The learning curve will be sharper for Hooker, but I would rather take my chances with a guy who puts the ball on target consistently with touch than a guy who doesn't. Accuracy and touch are two of the most important attributes for a QB.

Right now, with the injury, it appears Hooker will likely go somewhere on Day 2. I quite like the idea of him as a third round pick. I believe in McVay's ability to grow a young QB's football IQ and educate him on reading NFL defenses. It's much, much harder to teach a young QB to throw an accurate ball and to throw with touch. And one of the things I really liked seeing on Hooker's film is that he's very accurate attacking the intermediate part of the field off of play action, which is something McVay loves to do.

 

[Memento]

58 TDs to 5 Ints and completing nearly 70% of his passes in the SEC. It suffices to say that I disagree that he struggles with reads. Accurate, good decision maker, smart, very mobile, and plenty of arm. His completion percentage is also 8-10% better than the other QBs who have succeeded in that system (Lock, Milton, and Gabriel). His age and injury will cut against him, but he can play. Florida would have been a far better team if they had him instead of Richardson this year.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfAKl5xP9sA

His completion percentage is high because of his one-read offense which schemes receivers open, and the receivers themselves help a ton as well; Jalin Hyatt is a likely first round pick when he comes out, Velus Jones Jr. was a third round pick last year, and the other supporting receivers (Cedric Tillman, Ramel Keyton, Bru McCoy) are better than most of the receivers in college football.

Hooker has talent, but I'm not comfortable with drafting a twenty-five-year-old quarterback coming off of an ACL who only played in a gimmick offense as my QB of the future.

 

[Memento]

The way I see it, once you get outside the first round, QBs always have question marks. The gimmicky system Hooker plays in makes his ability to transition to the NFL where he'll have to throw into tighter windows, make tougher reads, and attack the middle of the field much more often a question mark. But his athleticism, touch, and accuracy are translatable skills.

Frankly, every QB comes into the NFL with question marks about how they'll mentally handle the more complex defenses and schemes. The learning curve will be sharper for Hooker, but I would rather take my chances with a guy who puts the ball on target consistently with touch than a guy who doesn't. Accuracy and touch are two of the most important attributes for a QB.

Right now, with the injury, it appears Hooker will likely go somewhere on Day 2. I quite like the idea of him as a third round pick. I believe in McVay's ability to grow a young QB's football IQ and educate him on reading NFL defenses. It's much, much harder to teach a young QB to throw an accurate ball and to throw with touch. And one of the things I really liked seeing on Hooker's film is that he's very accurate attacking the intermediate part of the field off of play action, which is something McVay loves to do.

Of course they have question marks, but again, if I have the choice between upside and safe - particularly with a QB - I'm going upside. Safe doesn't get you Super Bowls.

I believe in McVay's ability to help a young quarterback as well, which is why I'm high on Richardson. I imagine him sitting behind Stafford for a year, and eventually taking the reins once Stafford retires. Even if Stafford retires after this year, I'd still take Richardson if he's there in the second round. We're talking a potential top five quarterback once the older breed retires. We're talking Josh Allen at his peak.

Hooker, to me, doesn't have near the upside that Richardson does. Add in the age (twenty-five is old for a rookie) and the injury, and I'm not comfortable with drafting him.

 

[jrry32]

His completion percentage is high because of his one-read offense which schemes receivers open, and the receivers themselves help a ton as well; Jalin Hyatt is a likely first round pick when he comes out, Velus Jones Jr. was a third round pick last year, and the other supporting receivers (Cedric Tillman, Ramel Keyton, Bru McCoy) are better than most of the receivers in college football.

Hooker has talent, but I'm not comfortable with drafting a twenty-five-year-old quarterback coming off of an ACL who only played in a gimmick offense as my QB of the future.

His completion percentage is high because he's an accurate thrower. Here are the completion percentages of the other QBs in that offense:
Drew Lock (2016) - 54.6%
Drew Lock (2017) - 57.8%
McKenzie Milton (2018) - 59.2%
Dillon Gabriel (2019) - 59.3%
Dillon Gabriel (2020) - 60.0%
Hendon Hooker (2021) - 68.0%
Hendon Hooker (2022) - 69.6%

He also doesn't play in a one-read offense. The reads are simplified. A good chunk of the throws are predetermined. But there are also plays where he scans the field and works through progressions. On his first TD to Hyatt against Bama, he starts off looking to the right and comes back across the field to find Hyatt to the left for a TD. On the very next pass, he looks left initially, comes back across the field to his right, and hits a WR on the dig route. There are plenty of plays in that game where he comes off his first read.

If you go to 8:50 in the Alabama video, Hooker swiftly moves through a full-field progression and hits the last WR in his progression on the dig route in a compressed window with a perfect ball. He starts left, comes back all the way right, and hits Keyton on the dig.

I am a Gator fan. I am telling you not to draft the Gator QB and to draft the Tennessee QB (one of our most hated rivals). That should speak volumes. Nobody can predict how a QB will adjust to the NFL mentally, but that's an area where I trust McVay to get the most out of his QB. If McVay can do that with Hooker, he has a lot of potential, because the dude is very accurate and a good athlete. Yes, he's older, but QBs play a long time these days.

 

[jrry32]

Of course they have question marks, but again, if I have the choice between upside and safe - particularly with a QB - I'm going upside. Safe doesn't get you Super Bowls.

I believe in McVay's ability to help a young quarterback as well, which is why I'm high on Richardson. I imagine him sitting behind Stafford for a year, and eventually taking the reins once Stafford retires. Even if Stafford retires after this year, I'd still take Richardson if he's there in the second round. We're talking a potential top five quarterback once the older breed retires. We're talking Josh Allen at his peak.

Hooker, to me, doesn't have near the upside that Richardson does. Add in the age (twenty-five is old for a rookie) and the injury, and I'm not comfortable with drafting him.

I don't share that stance. For me to take upside, I need to believe the QB will reach it. McVay can't fix bad accuracy, bad touch, bad instincts, and mental fragility. Maybe Richardson manages to fix those things, but you're betting on a lottery ticket. It's easy to point to Josh Allen. But for every Josh Allen, there are many Jake Lockers, Cardale Joneses, JaMarcus Russells, Logan Thomases, Terrelle Pryors, DeShone Kizers, Joe Webbs, and Brett Hundleys.

Frankly, as great as a 4.5 40 and a rocket launcher for an arm are, upside for QBs in the NFL is mostly dictated by mental acuity, instincts, accuracy, and intangibles. Yes, Josh Allen is a nightmare because of his physical gifts. Yes, Patrick Mahomes is a nightmare because of his physical gifts. But Tom Brady isn't a freak athlete and doesn't have a rocket arm. Joe Burrow isn't a freak athlete and doesn't have a rocket arm.

You look at the best QBs of the past 30 years, and most of them weren't freakish athletes and didn't have cannons for arms. Many of them had solid to good mobility. Many of them had good arms. But what made them great players was/is their ability to read defenses, throw accurate passes with touch, and the intangible qualities that made them strong leaders and mentally tough QBs.

I look at Hooker and see a kid who has accuracy and touch for days, strong intangible qualities, and good mobility. And he has a plenty of arm. Does he have the mental acuity to be great? I don't know. We won't know until he gets to the NFL and plays in a pro offense. But you can say that about almost any QB prospect.

 

[ScotsRam]

Good chat guys and gals, appreciate the info.

I don't care how the Rams do it but they need to find a way to draft Caleb Williams in 2024.