Did the Cardinals do it with smoke and mirrors?

[snackdaddy]

The AZ Cardinals were ranked 24th in total offense. They score 19 points per game. They were also 24th in total defense. Yet they only gave up 18 points per game. And they won 11 games. Heck, we averaged 20 points per game on offense.

So how do they manage to win so many games. When I watch them, I don't see anything special about them. They been known as a defensive team, but I believe our defense is better. So how can they win 5 more games than us? Were they just lucky? If so, will their luck run out this year?

I have a hard time seeing why they're supposed to be that much better than us. We had some lousy quarterback play last year. With an average quarterback we woulda swept them.

 

[Mikey Ram]

Stats, aren't they great ???

 

[WestCoastRam]

Well, 2 of those 5 games were against us. Maybe we should play us two games a year.

 

[Rmfnlt]

Well, this can't hurt:
http://www.nflpenalties.com/?year=2014

When your margin of error is razor thin, it's best to minimize mistakes.

Just a thought.

 

[HE WITH HORNS]

That team got very lucky last year, the ball bounced their way many many times. They aren't nearly as good as their record indicates. I mean, we were dominating them until Davis threw them the ball a couple times at the end of the game.

 

[LACHAMP46]

So how do they manage to win so many games. When I watch them, I don't see anything special about them. They been known as a defensive team, but I believe our defense is better.

Turnovers? I knew their defense statistically wasn't very good...but they got results...It has to be hidden in the stats somewhere....

 

[LACHAMP46]

we were dominating them until Davis threw them the ball a couple times at the end of the game.

And some db...not sure who...gave up that damn bomb to Brown and the 3rd string QB...at the end of the game....who was that?!?

 

[Fatbot]

The NFL only has 16 games which is why the numbers always lie. The sample size is just too small to think "24th ranked" means everything, there's always hidden stories underneath in the individual game results themselves. I think what jumps out to most people about the AZ season is the QB situation -- e.g. "wow they won 11 games even without Palmer!" -- and you have to factor that in to rankings. But to me it's their turnovers -- specifically takeaway luck -- that makes me conclude they had more wins due to smoke & mirrors. I think they are a good team but not 11 wins good.

They jumped out to a 9-1 record primarily because they had a +11 turnover margin in their first ten games, then they went minus-3 over the rest of the season to go 2-4.

The Palmer injury was a factor, but it's not like the backup QBs became turnover machines. Their giveaways without Palmer were only about a half turnover per game worse than with him (and of course Stanton was magically mistake-free against the Rams). The huge difference in their season was their defense *takeaways* went from 19 in the first 9 games (2.1 per game) to 6 in the final 7 games (less than 1 per game).

Perhaps losing their starting QB affected the defense's aggressiveness and ball hawking, but I still think a lot of that 9-1 record came from just a lot of takeaway luck. Here's a good article on it: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-arizona-cardinals-have-been-the-luckiest-team-in-the-nfl/

 

[snackdaddy]

Well, this can't hurt:
http://www.nflpenalties.com/?year=2014

When your margin of error is razor thin, it's best to minimize mistakes.

Just a thought.

Interesting how the top 3 teams were in the final four last season. The top two were in the super bowl. I guess they have more margin for error.

The GSOT could turn it over 2 or 3 times and still win by 20. Talent and coaching can do a lot.

 

[Corbin]

Turnovers? I knew their defense statistically wasn't very good...but they got results...It has to be hidden in the stats somewhere....

5th best turnover margin? Yeah I'll take that!

They also didn't have Pick 6 Davis or Over the Hill playing for them at QB.

 

[ram007]

Cardinals 5-11 in 2015 or worse. Rams should be thinking about Seahawks not cardinals and 9ers.

 

[Moostache]

Cardinals 5-11 in 2015 or worse. Rams should be thinking about Seahawks not cardinals and 9ers.

I agree that the Cardinals are in for a fall off and the Niners are going to be in bad shape too. The opener against Seattle is almost silly to say its a "must-win", but in reality, the Rams could set a tone for the entire year that day...or they could fall on their face again...so much riding on a fast start and getting that win!

 

[TheDYVKX]

The AZ Cardinals were ranked 24th in total offense. They score 19 points per game. They were also 24th in total defense. Yet they only gave up 18 points per game. And they won 11 games. Heck, we averaged 20 points per game on offense.

So how do they manage to win so many games. When I watch them, I don't see anything special about them. They been known as a defensive team, but I believe our defense is better. So how can they win 5 more games than us? Were they just lucky? If so, will their luck run out this year?

I have a hard time seeing why they're supposed to be that much better than us. We had some lousy quarterback play last year. With an average quarterback we woulda swept them.

Probably because they were really really good and scoring a hell of a lot better before we took out two of their QBs. Lindley and to a lesser extent Stanton starting all those games really destroyed their averages. Palmer won them a lot of those games and Stanton played well enough to limp into the playoffs before he got hurt as well.

 

[ram007]

I agree that the Cardinals are in for a fall off and the Niners are going to be in bad shape too. The opener against Seattle is almost silly to say its a "must-win", but in reality, the Rams could set a tone for the entire year that day...or they could fall on their face again...so much riding on a fast start and getting that win!

I think Rams offense has too many questions to play Seahawks defense in first game. Hope Rams don't embarrassed and lose confidence

 

[Rmfnlt]

Interesting how the top 3 teams were in the final four last season. The top two were in the super bowl. I guess they have more margin for error.

The GSOT could turn it over 2 or 3 times and still win by 20. Talent and coaching can do a lot.

Good point(s).

And I agree. If you have a talented team, you can overcome a lot of mistakes.

The GSOT is a good example. Martz never worried about wasted TOs and penalties. He knew he had the horses and scheme to overcome them.

But when you don't score a lot, mistakes can cost you games.

So best to limit them if that's the case, IMO.

 

[bomebadeeda]

It's pretty simple. Their games that they lost were by a wide margin. And the games they won, weren't. In 11 wins, their total margin was 91 pts (roughly 8.3 pts a game winning margin) in their 5 losses they lost by 80, which would be 16 pts a game. So there is your #s. So to a certain extent.....yes.

 

[Rmfnlt]

I agree that the Cardinals are in for a fall off and the Niners are going to be in bad shape too.

Definitely agree about San Francisco. I have zero confidence in that new HC.

Arizona? I don't know... they could be good.. or fall off. Like him or not, Arians is a pretty good coach with a track record.

 

[FrantikRam]

This has become my favorite subject...I've talked about it a lot lol.

Week 1 - home against the Chargers - with SD getting in position to take the lead, they snap the ball over Rivers' head. Takes them out of scoring range - Chargers lose by 1. I bet that was the only snap over the head of Rivers all year - pure luck for the Cardinals.

Week 2 - at NYG - that team was a dumpster fire the first few weeks, and got much better with OBJ

Weeks 3, 6, and 7 - played the Niners at home, Redskins at home, and at Oakland - all pretty bad teams...the Niners win was impressive

Week 8 - win over Eagles was close, but impressive nonetheless

Week 9 - played Cowboys without Romo....who ended up having the best passer rating in the NFL

Week 10 - beat the Rams - but were losing going into the 4th quarter against the Rams 3rd string QB

Week 11 - beat Lions at home in a close game - impressive win

Weeks 14 and 15 - won close games over the Chiefs and Rams - Chiefs at home and Rams on the road on Thursday night

That Thursday night game, the Rams got ran all over. During Thursday night games all last year, there was weirdness. Usually blow outs. The Rams were coming off back to back shut outs. I think if that game was on Sunday we would have clobbered the Cards, so I call that luck of the draw for them. Win over the Chiefs was a good win, but very close game.

SO - that's their 11 wins - out of those, 4 of them were impressive. Of those 4 wins, only 1 came against a team that actually make the playoffs (Lions). I guess you could call the two wins against the Rams impressive, which would make 6 impressive wins with only 1 coming against a playoff team. All their impressive wins save for one was at home (at STL).

Their losses tell a more accurate story IMO. This is a .500 at best team next year.

 

[Alan]

Corbin forgetting some crucial details:
They also didn't have Pick 6 Davis or Over the Hill playing for them at QB.

Maybe but they did have Login error Thomas, I Drew a blank Stanton and Ryan keeps you cryin Lindley.

 

[Alan]

Rmfnlt with his take on the importance of dynamic Os:
But when you don't score a lot, mistakes can cost you games.

Which is why I'm not a fan of Run centric offenses. Hard to recover from mistakes.