@max
I have felt since we learned of the final order of the draft that the draft did not mesh very well with the Rams as far as value and need. So I don't have a good feel for what the Rams will do. I do think that the Rams vigorously pursued Jake Long last year because they really valued him, and I think that the Rams felt when they signed him to a four year deal that they had their left tackle for the next four years. To me, I think that Fisher values loyalty and commitment, and I also think that Jake Long played very well last year (an opinion that is not shared by everyone, but I think he gave the Rams exactly what they bargained for). Thus, it is hard for me to predict that the Rams would draft his replacement one year later after displacing Jake Long from his home in Miami and making unwritten promises to him that he would be their guy for the next 3 - 4 years. It just doesn't seem like a Fisher move to stick it to Jake Long like that. I think that signing Saffold means that the Rams can return 4 of their starting offensive linemen, and they can find another interior offensive lineman much later. Although I wouldn't be upset with Robinson, Mathews, Lewan, or Martin (at #13), I don't think it is the best marriage of value and need.
I also don't see the Rams drafting Mack under any circumstances. Not after drafting Ogletree in the first round last year and extending JLau's contract until 2017. I just don't think that a third linebacker, no matter how talented, can be justified as a top 5 pick. Heck, they were in LOVE with Ogletree and they wouldn't take him at #23 last year, so I think Mack is out of the question at #2. No judgment on how great a player Mack will be, but I just can't see the fit.
I don't think they will take Clowney at #2 unless they think he can be an all pro from the left side, which he hasn't played in college to my knowledge. I think Robert Quinn is going to be manning the right end position for a good while, so Clowney would have to be able to take over the left end for Chris Long. But I think the Rams see Chris Long as a leader and a very productive player still in his prime, so I just don't see the Rams taking Clowney either. Of course, his availability at #2 would most likely open the door for the Rams to secure that 2015 first round pick Snead covets so much.
I would probably take Watkins if I were the Rams and I was stuck at #2, but I don't have nearly the optimism that most people have that Watkins would be a transformative player in this system. I don't see him having the effect on this offense that people expect to happen. Like Austin last year, I can see him making some highlight plays but I worry about how productive he will actually be. Still, I think if forced to pick at #2 he makes the most sense. He would certainly be crowd favorite.
I hope they do not select a QB until the 4th round, and preferably the 5th unless they acquire more picks in a trade down. Any QB they pick is going to sit behind Bradford AND Shaun Hill holding a clip board, getting very few reps in practice, and will likely be seen as Hill's, not Bradford's, replacement in 2015. There is no way I can justify a top 100 pick for a player the Rams hope never takes a snap in a game outside of the preseason.
I also don't subscribe to a couple of theories that I have seen some profess as imperatives for the Rams. For one, I don't see anything magical about staying in the top 6 picks. For me, it is more important to find a player where value and need intersect perfectly than forcing a pick in the top 6 just because certain analysts (who don't all agree btw) say there are only 6 impact players in the draft. We all know that that is, statistically speaking, extremely unlikely. Second, I don't agree that the Rams need acquire only 2014 picks as part of a "win now" philosophy. The funny thing about the future is that it always shows up sooner than you think, and when the 2015 draft arrives people would look at the moves made in 2014 and assess what could have been done if they had the patience to make the best deal. An example of this is the RGIII trade, where many fans wanted the Cleveland deal so that the Rams could have 2 first round picks in 2012 instead of one in 2014. But the Rams eschewed the instant gratification path, and because of it the future arrived and the Rams are sitting on the #2 overall pick.
So what I
hope the Rams do is play the draft smart, don't think short term, don't draft players just to fill holes, but rather take the best football players they can. My guess is that they go one offense and one defense in the first round.
