Chicken or egg (QB vs Receiver)

[RamFan503]

You could have gone back to Dan "the Man" Marino. Mark Clayton & Mark Duper were alright but hardly really special WRs. Dan possessed that uncanny accuracy. he used to shock Pro Bowl WRs in the Pro Bowl by informing them in the huddle that the ball in the coming bomb was "going to be coming over the left shoulder" before delivering on his promise to the letter. Even those high end wide-outs were not used to QBs speaking/performing with supreme confidence concerning his unreal accuarcy.

And he's got the Superbowl rings to prove it. Oh wait.

 

[Tron]

The chicken.

 

[-X-]

The chicken.

Finally! Someone understands the context!

 

[RAMpage28]

Yeah, in a vacuum, QB is clearly more important than WR. I think we all agree on that. And if we have a chance to get THE best QB in the draft this year, then we should. But is that a sure thing? Is it ever? I don't know what the bust rate is for first round wide receivers, but it's gotta be pretty low. My question, I guess, is are we're close to being contenders where we'd be significantly better with a great wide receiver and rolling with Keenum/Mannion/whoever, or are we so far away from being contenders that we need a great QB to pair with Britt/Austin/Quick? There are more than just the two options obviously, but I'm trying to gauge the opinion given those two choices.

In short, are our wide receivers good enough but our QB isn't?
Or are our QBs good enough but our receivers aren't? (given how good the defense/run game is).

I'm going to go through 03-13 first round WRs.

03' 3 guys, only Andre Johnson hits.
04' 7 guys. FItz is hits easy and Roy Williams made a pro bowl so I'll count it. Lee Evans was decent as well, slightly disappointing. The final four are busts.
05' WRs total 6. 2 were hits. Roddy White and Braylon Edwards. Even Braylon is questionable here. 4 busts. Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Mark Clayton
06' 1 first round WR being Santonio Holmes. I'll mark him a hit.
07' 6 total. Calvin, Ted Ginn, Bowe, Robert Meachem, Craig Davis, Anthony Gonzalez. Calvin and Bowe hit. Ginn, Gonzalez, and Meachem are disappointments, and who the hell is Craig Davis?
08' None, but I'll take the top 5 picked. Donnie Avery Bust, Jordy Nelson Hit, Devin Thomas Bust, James Hardy Bust, Eddie Royal meh. Then DeSean is after that but he hit.
09' 6 guys. Kenny Britt disappointed but not a total bust I guess. Hakeem Nicks disappointed along the same lines as Percy Harvin did. DHB bust. Crabtree mediocre. Maclin hit.
10' 2 guys. Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant. Hits
11' 3 guys. Green and Julio hit, Baldwin busts.
12' 4 first round guys. Blackmon busts along with AJ Jenkins. Michael Floyd, and to a lesser extent Kendall Wright, Hit.
13' 3 guys. Tavon hits and DeAndre Hopkins is a home run. Cordarrelle Patterson fails.

Gonna admit, I could have done better here, probably just gone top 5 picked and laid out what makes a hit or a disappointment or a bust, but I've already gone this far.

So counting our odd ball six in 08, we have 47 guys.

IMO, you got 18 hits and even some of those are debatable.
disappointment/busts make up the other 29.

How many of them would you spend a first on in a heartbeat I guess is the real question here and I don't know the answer.

"My question, I guess, is are we close to being contenders where we'd be significantly better with a great wide receiver and rolling with Keenum/Mannion/whoever, or are we so far away from being contenders that we need a great QB to pair with Britt/Austin/Quick? There are more than just the two options obviously, but I'm trying to gauge the opinion given those two choices."

It depends on what you think the Rams are contending for. I think if the defense doesn't have a regression, then adding weapons for our mediocre QB can have this team contending for a playoff spot. Probably not a division title, but a WC spot. I don't think it will lead to consistent contention either.

If you go for the top draft talent QB, contention may or may not be immediate, but it would probably end up being more consistent and deeper in terms of where the team can go. Of course, a swing and a miss at QB is more devastating than one at WR, but dem's the bones you gotta roll if you want to go somewhere.

An interesting thing that adds to this whole debate IMO is the Cowboys and Texans this year. A big part of that is Brandon Weeden as well.

Texans better on defense, but Cowboys better on offense.

Both teams had a game breaker WR and unrest at QB. The weapons in Dallas for whatever reason couldn't lift their QBs. Vets, young guys, didn't matter. Putrid. They had more weapons than the Texans, yet the Texan QBs preformed better with their unrest as well.

Weeden played for both teams and preformed much better with the Texans and on paper that doesn't make any sense. Coaching may make the difference in this scenario. Just something to consider I guess.

 

[jrry32]

Are you gonna fire him?

Brad Johnson, Jeff Hostetler, Trent Dilfer, Doug Williams - and those are just the winners.

Tony Eason, Craig Morton, Vince Ferragamo, Ron Jaworski, David Woodley, Jim McMahon, Neil O'Donnell, Chris Johnson, Kerry Collins, Rich Gannon, Jake Delhomme, Rex Grossman, Colin Sackorpick - all started in a Super Bowl.

Keenum has every bit the talent that most of those guys have. He probably won't be the starter, but let's not pretend he's Jim Druckenmiller either.

I'll damn well try.

Disagree that he has every bit the talent as some of those guys. Rich Gannon was a NFL MVP. Delhomme was a Pro Bowler. And despite all of Kaepernick's deficiencies, he was crazy physically talented and the NFL had not caught up to him yet.

And it's worth mentioning that a good chunk of the guys you named retired 10+ years ago.

 

[Tron]

Finally! Someone understands the context!

I love that gif lol

 

[RamFan503]

Not true as you will see in this report

Drafting NFL Wide Receivers: Hit or Miss?
By Amrit Dhar

Hope you don't mind but I edited your post to just include the document itself rather than having a 14 foot long post.

 

[-X-]

Hope you don't mind but I edited your post to just include the document itself rather than having a 14 foot long post.

Seriously?

Because so did I.

 

[RamFan503]

Seriously?

Because so did I.

Too funny.

 

[-X-]

Disagree

 

[jrry32]

Not true as you will see in this report

Drafting NFL Wide Receivers: Hit or Miss?
By Amrit Dhar

Didn't want to read that long report so I looked over the WRs and QBs drafted over the last decade myself. You're right (and so was X); WRs do have a higher success rate.

Regardless, I'm still taking a QB over a WR. Will assume the higher reward with the higher risk.

 

[-X-]

It depends on what you think the Rams are contending for. I think if the defense doesn't have a regression, then adding weapons for our mediocre QB can have this team contending for a playoff spot. Probably not a division title, but a WC spot. I don't think it will lead to consistent contention either.

If you go for the top draft talent QB, contention may or may not be immediate, but it would probably end up being more consistent and deeper in terms of where the team can go. Of course, a swing and a miss at QB is more devastating than one at WR, but dem's the bones you gotta roll if you want to go somewhere.

I read it all (and thanks for the post), but I plucked the meat out of it here (please no Michael Scott references).

By contending, I mean just getting into the playoffs and maybe deep into them. It's gonna take a little more than a rookie QB (and a receiver) to get to the dance this year, probably, but I never rule that out. I could have made that clear originally, but I just wanted to spark conversation. Your point about long-term success is a good one; but as you pointed out, we better nail that pick - especially if it means mortgaging future picks (which also could have been used to improve the offense) to get him. Along those lines, it could be possible to improve the offense as a whole and make us consistently good as well, simply by adding a great receiver and developing Mannion and/or snaking a veteran QB or drafting one next year. As you can see, I'm more or less talking about immediate need and prioritizing that. I tend to lean toward WR if we can't move up the draft. If Snead can pull off a blockbuster move to get us at the top of the board, then I'd clearly shift my desire to QB. So I guess I'm also talking about BPA (where we're drafting) relative to the two positions as well.

To be clear, I value QB more than WR on principle. But this team (imo) needs a great receiver more than it needs a rookie QB at this point in time.
The window's not gonna stay open forever.

 

[jrry32]

To be clear, I value QB more than WR on principle. But this team (imo) needs a great receiver more than it needs a rookie QB at this point in time.
The window's not gonna stay open forever.

But isn't that the point of a young QB? Keeping your window open for a long time?

And where is the great WR? Keep in mind that the choice in the draft is rookie WR vs. rookie QB.

 

[jap]

And he's got the Superbowl rings to prove it. Oh wait.

Both Jrry and X have merits to their respective arguments. However, NFL football is too complex to boil everything down to an either/or situation between QBs and WRs. In a game with 22 starters plus special team-ers, one player can only have so much influence.

In the case of the super QB like Dan "the Man," he was thwarted in his quest for Super Bowl success because he never had a dominant running game. His QB-ing virtuoso performances were good enough to steer his Dolphin teams into the post-season time & time again . . . where he would face the best AFC teams and (the one time he got that far) the NFC overall winner, who invariably sported the very best defenses. In the playoffs and in his one SB appearance, the top defenses would focus on stopping the dominant super QB and his less-than-stellar rushing attack and came out ahead much more often than not. In fact, in latter years, Dan became so used to depending on his super arm that he came to distrust his rushing game, opting to roll the dice on his accuracy in crunch-time. Consequently, the failure of Miami coach, Don Shula, and his staff to provide Dan with a true rushing attack eventually crippled his confidence in the same. John Elway, while not quite as good as Dan, also struggled with SB success until he was bailed out later in his career by Terrell Davis.

The moral: besides special team-ers, NFL football is a 22-starter game and any pretense that any one man can carry a team by himself to the promise land is just that---a pitiful pretense. Of course!, a superstar carries more weight than the rest. However, he is still one man among 22. This is why it always bothers me when a QB like Dan is denigrated as a lifetime performer because he never won "the Big One" in what may very well be the ultimate team sport.

Michael Jordan could not win the Big One until he received great assistance from Scottie Pippen & Horace Grant in the first three championships and Pippen & Dennis Rodman in the latter three. (Fun question: if Allen Iverson was "The Answer," does this make Dennis Rodman "The Question"?) Bball is a 5-starter sport. Baseball is a 9/10-starter sport if one allows for the designated hitter. How can the media/fans of football, a 22-starter sport, possibly even begin to think a single man is that influential all by himself?

 

[-X-]

But isn't that the point of a young QB? Keeping your window open for a long time?

And where is the great WR? Keep in mind that the choice in the draft is rookie WR vs. rookie QB.

Treadwell is clearly the front-runner, and I like his size, hands & route-running. Not a burner, but that's not what we need. He would give Keenum (or Mannion) a big target if Quick doesn't shake whatever it is that's holding him back. If we're not able to move up, then it's Lynch or Cook at QB (if they fall) vs Treadwell.
Given those choices, I'd take Treadwell and try to move back into the first round to get one of the QBs.

 

[RAMpage28]

I read it all (and thanks for the post), but I plucked the meat out of it here (please no Michael Scott references).

By contending, I mean just getting into the playoffs and maybe deep into them. It's gonna take a little more than a rookie QB (and a receiver) to get to the dance this year, probably, but I never rule that out. I could have made that clear originally, but I just wanted to spark conversation. Your point about long-term success is a good one; but as you pointed out, we better nail that pick - especially if it means mortgaging future picks (which also could have been used to improve the offense) to get him. Along those lines, it could be possible to improve the offense as a whole and make us consistently good as well, simply by adding a great receiver and developing Mannion and/or snaking a veteran QB or drafting one next year. As you can see, I'm more or less talking about immediate need and prioritizing that. I tend to lean toward WR if we can't move up the draft. If Snead can pull off a blockbuster move to get us at the top of the board, then I'd clearly shift my desire to QB. So I guess I'm also talking about BPA (where we're drafting) relative to the two positions as well.

To be clear, I value QB more than WR on principle. But this team (imo) needs a great receiver more than it needs a rookie QB at this point in time.
The window's not gonna stay open forever.

So you're saying you would rather take a Treadwell than a Paxton Lynch at 15? I can understand that well enough. Probably a safer option. Not sure I agree with it but it's hard to choose and a case can be made either way.

I can already see Jrry has put something up as I type this that I agree with. A young QB would keep the window open, rookie vs. rookie, blah blah blah.

And what is the window really for this team at this moment? With this roster, on paper, in my opinion, there really isn't a window for a super bowl or really deep playoff run or anything like that. A window is there for a playoff spot and coaches and staff saving their jobs, but I'm not putting money down for a nice run and I don't think Keenum is that type of guy to lead a team to consistent playoff success even if you give him one of the best WR prospects in the upcoming draft.

A good rookie wide out can improve the offense significantly, but so can a rookie QB and you look at some of these recent guys having pretty quick success when drafted highly at QB. Guys like Luck and Cam and Winston and even Bradford's rookie year, you can see that rookie QBs are capable of elevating these teams early. Same with WRs to be fair as well, but not to the same degree I feel. Not saying that you always hit early, but I just feel like taking the QB would be the best option for the team. Make sure you get the QB early, then worry about picking up skill guys in the mid-rounds. The O-line isn't a complete mess and there is a nice running game to lean on.

 

[Ramhusker]

Good debate topic. I see it both ways but I think I lean towards QB. But at 15, you are staring at Paxton Lynch and Laquan Treadwell, who do you pick? I'm very torn on that one. I think I pick Treadwell in hopes that Mannion is ready to shock and awe.

 

[-X-]

So you're saying you would rather take a Treadwell than a Paxton Lynch at 15? I can understand that well enough. Probably a safer option. Not sure I agree with it but it's hard to choose and a case can be made either way.

Yes, that's the route I would take. I'm not convinced that Lynch is any better than Mannion at this point.

And what is the window really for this team at this moment? With this roster, on paper, in my opinion, there really isn't a window for a super bowl or really deep playoff run or anything like that. A window is there for a playoff spot and coaches and staff saving their jobs, but I'm not putting money down for a nice run and I don't think Keenum is that type of guy to lead a team to consistent playoff success even if you give him one of the best WR prospects in the upcoming draft.

I don't think Keenum is our future "make a run every year" QB either. But I'm also not buying into the rhetoric that he's a steaming pile (not that you said that). I saw some good things from him and Britt was really his only consistently good receiver. Britt. The guy who couldn't do anything in Tennessee, but we're not supposed to apply the logic that another team letting a guy go means he's expendable -- unless we're talking about Keenum.

A good rookie wide out can improve the offense significantly, but so can a rookie QB and you look at some of these recent guys having pretty quick success when drafted highly at QB. Guys like Carr and Winston and even Bradford's rookie year, you can see that rookie QBs are capable of elevating these teams early. Same with WRs to be fair as well, but not to the same degree I feel. Not saying that you always hit early, but I just feel like taking the QB would be the best option for the team. Make sure you get the QB early, then worry about picking up skill guys in the mid-rounds. The O-line isn't a complete mess and there is a nice running game to lean on.

Agree with all that. I don't see us in a position to get a QB in this draft who's *guaranteed* to be better than Keenum or Mannion though.

 

[jrry32]

Treadwell is clearly the front-runner, and I like his size, hands & route-running. Not a burner, but that's not what we need. He would give Keenum (or Mannion) a big target if Quick doesn't shake whatever it is that's holding him back. If we're not able to move up, then it's Lynch or Cook at QB (if they fall) vs Treadwell.
Given those choices, I'd take Treadwell and try to move back into the first round to get one of the QBs.

The quality of WRs in this draft in the late 1st and 2nd are better than the quality of QBs.(Tyler Boyd and Sterling Shepard are a couple great examples) And, imo, the quality of the QBs in the first are better than the quality of the WRs.

 

[jrry32]

Good debate topic. I see it both ways but I think I lean towards QB. But at 15, you are staring at Paxton Lynch and Laquan Treadwell, who do you pick? I'm very torn on that one. I think I pick Treadwell in hopes that Mannion is ready to shock and awe.

Lynch. Don't even think twice about it. He's gotten very underrated during the process. We can take Lynch at 15 and still come away with a talented WR in the 2nd.